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EUR / GBP
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By eFXdata  —  Mar 29 - 09:30 AM

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs discusses the recent volatility in the USD/CNY exchange rate, which saw the Yuan depreciating beyond key levels. Despite this movement and continued dollar strength, Goldman does not anticipate a shift in the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) stance towards using currency depreciation as a tool to counter economic downturns. The analysis suggests a range-bound outlook for USD/CNY, influenced by balanced factors of competitive Chinese exports and efforts to manage capital outflow pressures.

Key Points:

  • Recent Yuan Volatility: The USD/CNY pair experienced a sharp rise above the 7.20 level, influenced by broader dollar strength and adjustments in currency management by the PBOC, differing from the stable fixing observed last fall.
  • PBOC's Stance on Yuan: Goldman Sachs argues that the recent movements do not indicate a strategic change by the PBOC towards embracing a weaker Yuan to mitigate economic challenges, citing the current competitive pricing of Chinese goods in international markets.
  • Economic Considerations: The rationale for a depreciated RMB to stimulate exports is deemed weak given China's current competitive advantage. Conversely, elevated capital outflow pressures necessitate careful management to prevent a self-reinforcing depreciation spiral.
  • Range-Bound Outlook: The analysis concludes that, given these dynamics, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain within a defined range, with policymakers balancing export competitiveness against capital flight risks.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs's assessment of the USD/CNY dynamics suggests that despite recent fluctuations and ongoing dollar strength, significant shifts in the PBOC's currency policy are unlikely. The need to maintain competitive export pricing while managing capital outflows will likely result in a range-bound trading environment for the Yuan. Investors and market watchers are advised to anticipate stability in USD/CNY rates, barring unforeseen changes in economic conditions or policy adjustments.

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 29 - 08:53 AM

Synopsis:

CIBC expresses concerns over persistent inflation in the US following the release of the latest Core PCE inflation figures. The data, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, showed a higher than expected increase for the second month in a row, highlighting the ongoing challenge of returning to the Fed's 2% inflation target. The report also indicated robust consumer spending, particularly in services, which could add to inflationary pressures.

Key Points:

  • Inflation Gauge Remains High: Core PCE prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month in February, aligning with expectations, but a revision for January showed an increase to 0.5%, suggesting underlying inflation may be more persistent than previously thought.
  • Consumer Spending Rebounds: February saw a significant rebound in nominal consumer spending by 0.8%, surpassing the anticipated 0.5% increase, with real spending also up by 0.4% despite poor weather impacts in January.
  • Services Consumption and Saving Rate: Services consumption increased by 0.6% in real terms, pointing to strong demand, while the saving rate dipped to 3.6% from 4.1%, indicating potential concerns about household financial resilience.
  • Income Growth Steady but Below Expectations: Personal income growth remained steady at 0.3%, albeit slightly below expectations, potentially influencing future consumer spending patterns.

Conclusion:

The latest Core PCE inflation figures present a mixed outlook for the US economy, with continued robust consumer spending, especially in services, raising questions about the persistence of inflationary pressures. The slight uptick in inflation and strong demand may pose challenges for the Federal Reserve's efforts to guide inflation back to its target level. CIBC notes that while Fed officials have expressed the intention not to overreact to short-term data fluctuations, the recent figures underscore the complexities of achieving a stable inflation rate amidst strong consumer activity.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 28 - 04:30 PM

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs outlines its projections for the monetary policy paths of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) over the coming years. The firm expects the Fed to initiate a series of rate cuts starting in June 2024, eventually reaching a terminal rate range of 3.25-3.5%. In contrast, the ECB is forecasted to begin cutting rates in June 2024, with a series of reductions leading to a policy rate of 2.25%.

Key Points:

  • Federal Reserve Outlook:

    • Holding Pattern: Anticipated to maintain the current fed funds rate range (5.25-5.5%) until June.
    • Rate Cuts: Projected to cut rates by 25 basis points in June, September, and December 2024, followed by four additional cuts in 2025, and one final cut in 2026.
    • Balance Sheet Adjustment: Expected reduction of the Treasury runoff cap from $60 billion to $30 billion monthly post-May FOMC meeting.
  • European Central Bank Forecast:

    • Steady Stance: Predicted to hold the policy rate at 4.00% until a June cut.
    • Rate Reductions: Foreseen series of 25 basis point cuts per meeting, reducing the policy rate to 2.25% with a total of five cuts in 2024 and two more in 2025.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs provides a detailed forecast for the future actions of the Fed and ECB, suggesting a cautious approach towards easing monetary policy. While both central banks are projected to start cutting rates in June 2024, the pace and extent of these cuts differ, reflecting divergent economic conditions and policy considerations. This analysis offers valuable insights for market participants navigating the evolving interest rate environment.

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 28 - 02:31 PM
  • USD/JPY ending seven straight days stuck just below 152

  • So far, also in the third straight year with sub-152 peaks

  • Breakout and daily ranges above 152 are needed to resume the uptrend

  • That as rising 10-DMA, tenkan approach the 151 five-day range base

  • Minor bearish daily and weekly RSI divergences from 2024's price highs

  • Major support is at 149.23 from the kijun and cloud top

  • Big upside breakout could target twin 161.8% Fibos by 155.20.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 28 - 02:00 PM

The dollar index rose 0.1% Friday and 3% on the quarter, with early Friday period-end gains aided by Fed Governor Christopher Waller's reiterated view that there's no need to rush rate cuts, but USD/JPY's hefty 7.3% Q1 advance petered out after seven days and three years of peaks just below 152.

EUR/USD was among the harder hit pairings early in the session, not least due to a very weak German retail sales report in the wake of Waller's dollar supportive views, which also highlighted his and the Fed's data dependence while debating when and by how much rates ought to be cut.

Today's Q4 U.S.
GDP revisions, jobless claims
, Chicago PMI, final Michigan sentiment and pending homes sales may have contributed to trimming of earlier Treasury yield and dollar gains, though how much amid pre-holiday and period-end flows is hard to decipher.
But the dive in the Chicago PMI to 10-month lows and Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations dips at least offset upwardly revised current and expected conditions and firmer Q4 GDP with mixed PCE changes.

The macro focus now shifts to Friday's core PCE, income and spending reports, though released with markets, except currencies, closed in the U.S. That will be followed by ISM manufacturing on Monday, JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP and non-manufacturing ISM on Thursday and the employment report on Friday.

If they are as or near forecast they shouldn't substantially change the current market pricing in of three Fed cuts before year-end, likely beginning in June.
If they lean hawkish and show the economy again proving more resilient than many have expected, Treasury yields and the dollar should rise and vice versa.

EUR/USD fell 0.28%, though it recovered from its lowest since Feb.
20, with the 1.0775 EBS low at the uptrend line support across October and February lows there.

USD/JPY trod water after seven straight sessions and three consecutive years with highs just shy of 152.
Ongoing FX intervention threats from Japanese officials have made a breakout riskier for a market that already has IMM net spec longs nearing their highest since 2017 and Treasury-JGB yields spreads consolidating below this year and last year's peaks.

That as eventual Fed rate cuts are priced against the BoJ's exit last week from negative rates, even though its policies remain extremely easy.
Tokyo CPI on Friday will get a glance as a possible preview of March's national CPI result.

Sterling fell 0.12%, but came well off Friday's 1.2583 lows by the 200-day moving average and just above March's 1.2572 trough.

USD/CAD fell 0.23% following above-forecast Canadian GDP and a 2% jump in crude prices.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 28 - 01:55 PM
  • USD/JPY ends flat after 7 days with highs just shy of 152

  • And with a third straight year of highs so far just below 152

  • MoF and BoJ's looming and ongoing FX intervention threats help cap

  • Tokyo CPI, Japan retail sales and jobs data are due out on Friday

  • But Friday's US core PCE is the much bigger event risk, Fed guide

  • Though released with bond and stock markets closed -- FX open

  • ISMs, JOLTS and the jobs reports next week are possible tie-breakers

  • Strong US data would keep a 152 breakout, barrier breach, in play

  • Softer data that weakens Tsy yields would make intervention more effective

  • Daily ranges above 152 or below 150 are needed to end stalemate

  • Though the intervention threat would increase and likely peak by 155

  • Key kijun and cloud top supports are now at 149.23

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 28 - 03:00 PM

Synopsis:

Speculation is mounting regarding Japan's potential intervention in the FX market following a recent meeting among key Japanese financial institutions. ING suggests that intervention could occur if USD/JPY surpasses the 152 mark, possibly in the 153-155 range, aligning with previous intervention patterns in 2022. Unsterilized intervention, which would not offset the liquidity effects of FX sales, could significantly impact money markets, particularly in the context of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent shift towards a tighter monetary policy stance.

Key Points:

  • Intervention Threshold: Japanese authorities are closely watching USD/JPY movements, with potential intervention anticipated if the pair exceeds 152, specifically targeting the 153-155 range.

  • Previous Intervention Reference: Japan's last intervention in the FX market occurred in September and October 2022, involving approximately US$65bn to counteract yen depreciation.

  • Consideration of Unsterilized Intervention: Unlike previous instances, Japan may opt for unsterilized intervention this time, leading to a net yen liquidity drain and affecting money markets. This approach aligns with the BoJ's tightening monetary policy orientation.

Conclusion:

Amid rising speculation about Japan's intervention in the FX market to support the yen, ING pinpoints a critical threshold for USD/JPY that could trigger such actions. With the possibility of unsterilized intervention, the financial landscape could witness significant shifts, especially given the BoJ's recent pivot towards a more restrictive monetary policy. The global financial community remains vigilant, awaiting Japan's potential strategic moves in the FX domain. 

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 28 - 01:50 PM
  • AUD/USD fell to 0.64855 in Europe's morning, NY just above that low

  • Rally ensued as US yields US2YT=RR erased some gains & US$ slid

  • Inflation components of US data helped soften US$ & buoy riskier assets

  • USD/CNH slid from its 7.2671 D3 high, stocks ESv1 & gold XAU= rallied

  • AUD/USD pierced the daily cloud base, neared 0.6530 then neared 0.6515 late

  • Pair traded down only -0.24% but a daily bull hammer candle formed

  • Monthly gravestone doji is bearish but RSIs are sending mixed signals

  • Japan March CPI Tokyo may impact risk sentiment during Asia hours

  • US February PCE & its impact on Fed policy is a key risk in NY Friday

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Mar 28 - 01:45 PM
  • GBP$ ending NY in middle of Thurs range -0.11% at 1.2627; NY range 1.2655-12

  • Hawkish Waller comments late Wednesday drive trading pre-holiday; US PCE Fri

  • Weak Chicago PMI data boosted GBP$ fleetingly; upbeat UMich reversed gains

  • Sterling eyes trend lows; capped by holiday liquidity, Waller comments

  • Friday's core PCE data in focus despite diminished holiday eyeballs

  • U.S. Q4 GDP beat supports Waller's high-for-longer musings

  • Res at Thurs high 1.2655, Fri's daily cloud top 1.2671, 30-DMA 1.2694

  • Support 1.2612 early NorAm low, 1.2590 200-DMA, 1.2576 March 22 low

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 28 - 01:35 PM
  • EUR/USD hit 1.0775 on EBS in Europe's morning, NY opened near 1.0790

  • Pair neared 1.0820 after US yields US2YT=RR softened & US data released

  • USD/CNH pull back from high, equity gains & gold rally also buoyed EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD slid, sat just below 1.0800 late as yields, US$ firmed up again

  • Long lower wick formed on daily candle but pair sat below the daily cloud

  • Monthly gravestone doji candle, falling daily RSI are bearish signals

  • Japan March CPI Tokyo, US Feb. PCE are key risks for Friday

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 28 - 01:30 PM

Synopsis:

HSBC forecasts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its key policy rates at 4.0% during the April 11 meeting, aligning with signals for a potential rate cut in June. Recent data, including decreases in headline and core inflation for February and mixed wage growth indicators, align with ECB expectations. Despite this, only significant deviations in the upcoming March inflation data might influence an earlier rate adjustment.

Key Points:

  • April Meeting Expectations: The ECB is likely to keep policy rates unchanged in April, considering the bank's previous hints at a more substantial data review by June. Christine Lagarde, ECB President, emphasized the importance of observing more comprehensive data before making adjustments.

  • March Inflation Data Impact: A significant divergence in the March inflation figures might trigger a debate on the pace of rate cuts. However, an uptick in inflation is anticipated due to seasonal effects and a shift in consumption patterns, making an April rate cut less likely.

  • Future Rate Cut Considerations: While an April rate adjustment seems off the table, the ECB's guidance in April could set the stage for potential rate cuts starting in June. The focus will likely shift towards the ECB's readiness for a July cut, contingent on inflation trends aligning with expectations.

Conclusion:

HSBC anticipates the ECB to hold steady on interest rates at its upcoming April meeting, with a strong indication of initiating rate cuts by June. Despite potential fluctuations in the March inflation data, the central bank's decision-making is poised to rely on a broader dataset, making significant policy shifts in April unlikely. Attention will increasingly turn towards the ECB's future meetings for cues on the pace and timing of rate adjustments, particularly the possibility of a July cut.

Source:
HSBC Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 28 - 11:50 AM
  • AUD/USD broke the daily cloud base, t-l off Feb. low overnight, 0.64855 hit

  • A sharp rally ensued however and the pair climbed back above both

  • A daily bull hammer candle formed after the pair hit a 3-week low

  • AUD/USD longs encouraged by the signal but bear signals still remain

  • Pair below 10-, 21-, 55- & 200-DMAs & monthly gravestone doji in place

  • Japan March CPI Tokyo, U.S. February PCE are key data risks Friday

  • Data may determine if today's break lower was false or not

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 28 - 11:00 AM

Synopsis: Bank of America (BofA) reaffirms its bullish stance on EUR/USD, projecting the pair to reach 1.15 by the end of 2024, in contrast to the more conservative consensus forecast of 1.10 for this year and 1.14 by 2025. BofA's optimism stems from expectations of a weaker dollar driven by moderating inflation and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, enabling a shift towards equilibrium in USD value.

Key Points:

  • Bullish on EUR/USD: BofA stands firm on its year-end target for EUR/USD at 1.15, anticipating most of the currency pair's appreciation to occur in the second half of the year. This outlook positions BofA above the current market consensus.

  • Consensus Comparison: The market consensus pegs EUR/USD at 1.10 for 2024, and 1.14 by 2025. BofA's forecast extends further, envisioning EUR/USD at at 1.15 by end of 2024 and 1.20 in 2025.

  • Unchanged Core USD Forecasts: BofA's broader forecasts for the USD against G10 currencies remain steady. The bank anticipates broad USD depreciation in 2024, fueled by declining inflation rates and anticipated monetary easing by the Fed.

  • EUR-CHF Adjustment: The only recent adjustment in BofA's currency forecasts was an uplift in EUR-CHF projections following the Swiss National Bank's unexpected decision to lower interest rates.

Conclusion: BofA's steadfast prediction for EUR/USD to appreciate significantly by the end of 2024 reflects a bullish divergence from the market consensus. The bank's expectations hinge on a broader theme of USD depreciation against G10 currencies, driven by moderating inflation and prospective rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This outlook suggests a return towards a more balanced USD valuation as the year progresses, particularly in the latter half.

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Paul Spirgel  —  Mar 28 - 10:10 AM

GBP/USD remained anchored near the lower end of its recent 1.2576-1.2676 range in early NorAm trading, bounded loosely by 200-DMA support at 1.2590 and the daily cloud top resistance at 1.2663, and is likely to remain weak after soft UK GDP data and hawkish comments by the Fed's Christopher Waller.

The pound is also coming under slight pressure ahead of the upcoming Good Friday holiday, month and quarter-end and Friday's PCE data, as traders gravitate to the safety of the U.S. dollar.

With recent Fed musings indicating comfort with a high-for-longer policy path, UK data and central bank voting suggesting a less hawkish BoE policy path in 2024, this year's early GBP/USD highs by 1.29 are likely to cap cable as recent longs predicated on a BoE rate path relatively higher than the Fed are unwound.

While the pound is likely to remain on the backfoot amid soft UK data and reduced BoE rate expectations, GBP/USD's fall is likely to remain measured, assuming the BoE does not signal an overtly dovish rate tack while inflation remains considerably above target.

Below the recent trend low at 1.2576, support comes in at 1.2518, the Feb.
5 2024 low, and the Nov.
20 weekly low at 1.2448.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 28 - 10:00 AM

Synopsis:

MUFG observes a notable increase in verbal intervention from Japanese officials against the yen's recent weakness, contributing to a temporary stabilization of USD/JPY below the 152.00-level. The caution among market participants about the heightened risk of intervention, especially during the upcoming less liquid Easter holiday period, underscores the seriousness of Japan's stance on curbing speculative movements affecting the yen's value.

Key Points:

  • Intervention Warnings Amplify: Japanese officials have intensified their warnings against the yen's depreciation, emphasizing their readiness to counter excessive market movements. This has injected a degree of caution among traders, wary of potential intervention.

  • Joint Meeting Raises Alert: A recent joint meeting between the Ministry of Finance (MoF), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Financial Services Agency (FSA) highlighted concerns over speculative forces driving the yen's decline. Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda's comments post-meeting underscored the view that recent yen weakness does not align with economic fundamentals.

  • Speculative Movements Under Scrutiny: Kanda's remarks pointedly criticized the speculative nature of the yen's recent movements, emphasizing the government's low tolerance for such activities and signaling a readiness to intervene should these trends persist.

Conclusion:

The recent escalation in verbal warnings from Japanese officials marks a significant moment in Japan's approach to managing the yen's value. By publicly acknowledging the potential for intervention, Japan is sending a clear message about its willingness to act against speculative pressures that diverge from economic fundamentals. This stance has introduced a new layer of caution in the forex market, particularly as traders navigate the uncertainties surrounding the Easter holiday period.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 28 - 09:04 AM

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole elaborates on their optimistic outlook for the AUD/NZD currency pair, amidst a backdrop of external challenges influencing the Australian dollar, such as rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening USD, and weakening iron ore prices. The bank holds a long position in AUD/NZD, targeting a movement towards 1.12, citing various factors that favor the Australian currency over the New Zealand dollar.

Key Points:

  • External Factors Impacting AUD: Higher U.S. Treasury yields, a robust USD, and declining iron ore prices are identified as significant external pressures on the Australian dollar.

  • Optimistic AUD/NZD Outlook: Despite the challenges facing the AUD, Credit Agricole remains bullish on AUD/NZD, leveraging a positive view of the Australian economy through this currency pair and targeting a move towards 1.12.

  • Influences on AUD/NZD: The firm notes declining dairy prices, which counterbalance the effects of falling iron ore prices on the AUD/NZD cross. Additionally, deteriorating business confidence and activity in New Zealand, alongside comments from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr hinting at a return to "normalized rates," have negatively impacted the NZD, further supporting the bullish AUD/NZD position.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole reaffirms its bullish outlook on the AUD/NZD pair, despite external pressures challenging the AUD. The bank's long position is underpinned by various factors, including relative commodity price movements and central bank commentary, which collectively support a forecasted rise in the currency pair towards 1.12. This stance offers an insightful perspective on leveraging cross-currency pairs to navigate and benefit from differing economic and market dynamics between Australia and New Zealand.

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Justin Mcqueen  —  Mar 28 - 06:45 AM
  • EUR/GBP -0.15%, 55DMA (0.8552) support holds for now

  • Further support below at 0.8530 (pre-BoE level)

  • A break below would negate the Mar 21 bullish key day reversal

  • Likely paves the way for a retest of the 0.85 handle

  • EU/UK 10yr yield spread less supportive of EUR/GBP. Now -165bps from -154bps

  • Potential false break of 200DMA in GBP/USD is a worry for EUR/GBP bulls

  • BoE's Haskel remains hawkish. However, actions speak louder

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 28 - 06:15 AM
  • Dollar gains as inflation data looms; yen on intervention watch nL2N3G60G7

  • Japan repeats verbal warning to yen bears, BOJ dovish tone nL2N3G60AQ

  • Japan authorities will struggle to stop yen falling nL2N3G40PL

  • USD/JPY has seen a 151.25-55 range, according to EBS data, on Thursday

  • USD/JPY chart remains bullish, expect a 152.00 break nL2N3G60ME

  • 152.00 barrier expiries clear the way for USD/JPY gains next week

  • USD/JPY and EUR/JPY pairs maintain a strong positive correlation

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 28 - 05:00 AM
  • USD/JPY hit a new 2024 high at 151.97 on Wednesday

  • Scope grows for an eventual break above the 152.00 psychological level

  • Spot continues to trade well above daily kijun line, that is at 149.23

  • 14-day momentum turned positive last week, highlighting the upside bias

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 163.26-163.95 range, on Thursday, EBS data shows

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL2N3G50LS

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Mar 28 - 04:05 AM
  • Defence of well touted 152.00 barrier options helping to cap USD/JPY

  • However, there's talk that several of these options will expire next week

  • Soon-to-expire barrier options typically field the biggest defence

  • There will also be those who stand to benefit if they are erased pre expiry

  • Market is short gamma above 152.00 which could fuel gains/volatility above

  • Higher risk of intervention makes 153 barriers a much harder-to-reach target

  • FX option implied volatility higher - 1-month 7.8 vs l-term low 7.1

  • There's conflict between short gamma and intervention fears nL5N3G51G5

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 28 - 04:05 AM
  • It's two years since Germany posted positive retail sales data

  • Sales fell 2.7% yy in Feb worse than the -0.8% f/c

  • The lowest estimate by any analyst polled was -1.1%

  • Traders have consistently bet on EUR/USD rising this year

  • Liquidation of $3.5bln longs helped push EUR/USD lower from 1.1047 to 1.0695

  • The liquidation of remaining bets ($6.6bln) may fuel a deeper drop

  • Traders may soon turn their back on the pound

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Mar 28 - 03:15 AM
  • There have been several option trades featuring 1.0600 strikes this week

  • 1.08-1.06 USD call spreads common with expiry dates over the next 1-2 months

  • Also, options with various types of triggers on USD call strikes at 1.0600

  • Such options would gain value amid a deeper EUR/USD decline toward 1.0600

  • Risk reversals retain a slightly firmer downside vs upside vol premium

  • However, implied volatility reverts to late 2021 lows across all expiries

  • That suggests that any deeper EUR declines will be slow and lack volatility

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 27 - 11:15 PM
  • EUR/USD opened at 1.0828 and eased to 1.0808 in early Asia

  • Bids ahead of support at 1.0800/05 cushioned the fall in thin market

  • Heading into the afternoon the EUR/USD was trading at 1.0820/25

  • The 61.8 fibo fo the Feb-March rise is at 1.0803 where daily lows are found

  • A break below 1.0800 targets the Feb 14 low at 1.0695

  • Resistance is at the 10-day ma at 1.0853 and break would ease pressure

  • Range trading likely until Friday's US PCE index

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 27 - 11:05 PM
  • AUD/USD opened flat at 0.6534 after Wall Street rally supported recovery from lows nL2N3G52FN

  • It dipped to 0.6515 following slightly weaker Aus retail sales nAZN1MPCJW

  • A trend line drawn from Oct 26 low comes in @ 0.6515 today and held again

  • USD/CNH eased from the morning high and helped to underpin AUD/USD bounce

  • AUD/USD traded to 0.6540 before settling at 0.6535

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.6546 and a topside trend-line at 0.6614

  • A break of either 0.6514 or 0.6614 should see decent follow-through

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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