ANZ Research discusses GBP/USD outlook for the coming week.

"We expect the BoE to deliver a shallow tightening cycle, with 25bp hikes in November and February taking the Bank Rate to 4.25%, a profile that is broadly consistent with current market pricing. As a result, additional inflation concerns are unlikely to provide sustained support for GBP. Instead, markets are likely to remain focused on the UK's fiscal outlook ahead of next month's Budget and the relative policy outlook versus the US. With much of the BoE tightening story already priced in and growth momentum appearing soft, risks skew towards GBP/USD weakness," ANZ notes.

"GBP/USD is trading below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, while the RSI has moved into oversold territory and MACD remains negative. We see any tactical upside in GBP/USD next week as an opportunity to sell. Support is located near 1.3163, with a break exposing the pair around 1.31. Resistance is at 1.33 and 1.338," ANZ adds.

• A fresh 2-month low of 0.7004 traded in Asia on USD & USD/CNH gains

• Buyers emerged however as USD softened, US yields

moved down

• Rallies in gold, silver, copper & equities contributed to the USD selling theme

• AUD/USD rallied above the 200-DMA, hit 0.7033 early NY, traded up +0.30%

• Today's price reversal has daily technicals flashing warnings to bears

• Daily RSI diverged on the low & a daily bull hammer candle formed

• Monthly inverted hammer, falling monthly RSI give bears comfort though
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has fallen from 158.89 to 157.66, on Friday so far

• Yen bounces from three-week low on intervention rhetoric

• PM Takaichi: Trump said in the summit meeting that weak yen is pressuring US trade

• Earlier Fin Min Katayama flagged Trump's concern over weak yen in summit with Takaichi

• Katayama: this reaffirmed the shared US-Japan stance behind July's joint intervention

• A Friday close back below 158.62 Fibo, after closing above on Thursday, would be a "bull trap"

• The 158.62 level is a 76.4% retrace 160.39-152.89 (September) EBS drop

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Fixed-income sell-off remains the dominant driver across G10 FX, keeping the USD firmly in the driver’s seat

• As the chart highlights, any further upside in US yields leaves gold, SEK, NZD and CHF most at risk

• The US 10-year yield is firmly above 5%, but the bigger concern is the rate of change, not the level itself

• If this momentum persists, it reinforces the USD bid and risks tipping broader markets into a risk-off tone

• In that scenario, expect gold, SEK and NZD to come under renewed selling pressure
FX sensitivity to US yields

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Japanese exporter sales capped USD/JPY ahead of 159 in Asia

• Fin Min Katayama flagged Trump's concern over weak yen in summit with PM Takaichi

• USD/JPY suffers a setback as a result, down from 158.89 to 157.95, on Friday so far

• A Friday close back below 158.62 Fibo, after closing above on Thursday, would be a "bull trap"

• A bull trap is set when spot breaks above a level but quickly reverses and is usually bearish

• The 158.62 level is a 76.4% retrace 160.39-152.89 (September) EBS drop

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds story link to para 3 )

Sept 25 (Reuters) - FX options markets are flashing a clear warning sign this week: demand and premium for EUR put/USD call options have risen sharply, with 1.1300 strikes drawing particular attention. These options give holders the right — but not the obligation — to sell EUR/USD at a preset strike and expiry date, and the concentration of interest around 1.1300 is no coincidence.

The level carries technical significance. June's low, and the pair's weakest point since May 2025, sits at 1.1325, just above the psychologically important 1.1300 handle. Barrier and trigger options clustered at 1.1300 now hold the key to whether declines extend meaningfully further, making this strike a genuine inflection point for spot.

1.1300 EUR put/USD call options stand to gain in value on two fronts simultaneously. First, a break in spot below the strike would allow holders to exercise their right to sell EUR/USD at 1.1300 — a level above prevailing market prices — directly increasing the option's intrinsic value. Second, implied volatility matters just as much. Since future volatility is unknowable, implied vol acts as the market's proxy and is a key driver of option premium. It has already risen across the FX complex from long-term lows amid the latest leg of dollar strength, independently boosting option prices even before spot moves — and it would be expected to climb further still as EUR/USD falls, particularly on any break below 1.1300, adding a self-reinforcing tailwind to the move.

Risk reversals — which measure the implied volatility skew between equivalent EUR puts and calls — reinforce this picture. They have jumped sharply in favor of EUR puts over calls, reflecting stronger demand for the right to sell euros versus buy them, consistent with a market positioning for lower EUR/USD.

The shift has been swift. Risk reversals sat close to neutral heading into last week's Fed decision, with only a modest downside premium immediately afterward. Since then, the benchmark 1-month 25-delta risk reversal has climbed close to the late-July peak of 0.9 — a level not seen since April.

Any break below 1.1300 might ultimately prove temporary, but an initial break could still trigger sharper, faster declines before any recovery — precisely the scenario these hedges are designed to reward and protect against. That the market is pricing this risk so actively shows it isn't ruling out a break of 1.1300, even if only fleeting.
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Win Metals rise as much as 11.8% to A$0.0190, their highest since September 16

• Stock logs its largest intraday pct gains since August 7

• Stock on track for its best week since the week ended August 7, having gained 8.8% so far

• Lithium-Nickel miner lodges key permit applications required for the restart of the Radio Gold Project, located in Yilgarn region of Western Australia

• Clear pathway now established toward funding, Final Investment Decision, and project extension through extensional drilling and regional resource additions - co

• YTD, Stock down 45.6%

(Reporting by Tejas Harish in Bengaluru)

• USD/KRW retreats to 1359.5, slipping under 21 DMA 1362.2

• Potential Fri close below 21 DMA indicates loss of chart support

• That may open the way to Bollinger downtrend channel 1347.4

• USD/JPY sliding due to jawboning pulls most USD/AXJ lower

• Japan finmin says Trump concerned at yen weakness

• But UST yields stay elevated, buoying USD elsewhere; 2y 4.906%
KRW

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD stays offered in Asia after closing 0.15% lower Thursday

• May consolidate after falling 1.4% this week to its lowest since June 29

• Weighed down by hawkish Fed comments, rising odds of October rate hike

• BoE Nov 25bps hike odds rise to 75% on hawkish comments from BoE officials

• EUR/GBP steady after hitting highest since July 1 on robust EZ economy

• Support 1.3180, 1.3140-1.3160 March-June lows; resistance 1.3255-60, 1.3300

• Thursday range 1.3204-1.3256, Asia 1.3211-1.3224
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Hong Kong shares of Shandong Gold Mining drop 5.9% to HK$19.5, their lowest level since August 3

• Stock on track for the biggest one-day decline since August 13 in seventh consecutive falling session

• The Chinese gold miner says it expects its 2026 net profit attributable to decrease y/y due to a proposed adjustment of production and operation plan reducing its 2026 gold output to 36-38 tonnes, from the original target of no less than 49 tonnes

• The company's mine-produced gold output amounted to 48.89 tonnes in 2025 - Shandong Gold Mining

• YTD, Hong Kong stock down 43.1%, the benchmark Hang Seng Index down 5.1%

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• USD/JPY to remain bid on dips after closing 0.35% higher on Thursday

• Boosted by higher US long-term yields; 30-year touches highest since 2004

• Supported by robust US economy, high energy prices, inflation concerns

• Hawkish comments from Fed officials raise rate expectations, weigh on JPY

• Tokyo intervention resolve to face further tests as BOJ seen lagging Fed

• Resistance 159.00-05 followed by 159.50-60, 159.75, 160.00

• Support 158.40-50, 158.00-10; Thu range 157.80-159.03, Asia 158.685-158.89
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.56859 high as DXY & UST yields forge higher

• Pair down cumulative 5.5% over last month, targets 0.5627 ytd low short term

• Fed officials flag inflation fear, futures imply 70.9% chance Oct FFR hike

• WTI remains elevated at $94.12 a barrel as Houthis continue Saudi attacks

• U.S. Aug durable goods due Fri, Reuters poll consensus -0.4% m/m

• Range NZ 0.56565-64, support 0.5627 0.5581, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD -0.9% wtd as long-date UST yields surge to multi-decade highs

• Fed officials Paulson & Williams both flag tighter monetary policy Thur

• Broad USD index up 1.0% wtd, futures imply 70.9% chance of Oct 28 Fed hike

• Brent crude +3.6% to $106.77 a barrel as Houthis continue Saudi attacks

• Report indicates EU not doing enough on defence to counter Russian threat

• EUR still drifting towards 1.1353, break below 1.1325 would accelerate move

• Range Asia 1.1378-80, support 1.1353 1.1325, resistance 1.1710 1.1850
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


U.S. 30Y Treasury Yields


EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.7045 high as USD index and UST yields extend gains

• 30Y UST yield hits 22-year high at 5.46% on compounding inflation concerns

• Brent crude +3.7% to $106.85 a barrel as Houthis continue Saudi attacks

• RBA monetary policy meeting outcome due Tue, 25 bps hike widely anticipated

• AUD targets 0.6920 support, break below may bring 0.6660 ytd low into play

• U.S. Aug durable goods due Fri, Reuters poll consensus -0.4% m/m

• Overnight range 0.7006-45 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


U.S. 30Y Treasury Yields


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research adopts a negative bias on GBP going into the UK Autumn Statement. 

"EUR/GBP has rebounded slightly higher to 0.86 after trading close to 0.8450 over the summer. Political instability has once again faded and with a more pragmatic pick for UK chancellor, fiscal sustainability worries have taken a backseat. However, we are attentive to budget risks ahead of the Autumn Statement. The UK economy has also performed better than expected although the past weeks data releases have been to the weaker side," Danske notes.

"We highlight that the UK economy remains fragile and that we see scope for the significant repricing of the BoE to revert to a larger extent than for the ECB, opening for a move higher in EUR/GBP. We continue to forecast EUR/GBP to move higher from current levels but now see the outlook more balanced," Danske adds.

• NY opened near 1.1375 after 1.1399 traded overnight, the pair lifted early NY

• Some USD weakness helped drive EUR/USD up to 1.1391, sellers then emerged

• USD firmed up, yields gained & spreads

widened

• USD/CNH traded upward while gold, silver, stocks moved downward

• EUR/USD sat near 1.1365 in NY's afternoon, the pair traded down -0.15%

• Falling RSIs, hold below 76.4% Fibo of 1.1325-1.1711 are bearish tech signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7030 after 0.7045 traded overnight, pair's fall then extended

• Rally in US yields helped overnight USD buying extend in NY

• Gold, silver, stock drops & USD/CNH gains reinforced the broad-based USD buys

• AUD/USD fell below the 200-DMA, pierced the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6867-0.7238

• A 2-month low of 0.7007 traded before the pair bounced slightly

• Some USD selling lifted AUD/USD near 0.7015 late, the pair was down -0.36%

• Techs are bearish; pair below the 200-DMA, daily, monthly RSIs are falling

• September's monthly inverted hammer candle reinforces bearish tech signs
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs highlights the shift in USD funding after September FOMC.

"Going into the Fed, a lot of clients, including ourselves, were of the view that you'd fund in short USD and that would be against the likes of JPY, EUR, Gold, and also a pro- cyclical tilt with EM longs. But the Fed does feel like a game changer. Part of the view on the USD was that you'd have flavours of debasement, but the market has credibly priced in a reaction function that will actually tighten financial conditions in the face of inflation," GS notes.

"The meaningful shift in everyone's portfolio is from funding in USD into a mixture of EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD," GS adds.

• GBP/USD traded softer through most of the NY session before bouncing off the lows

• Headlines flagged US and Iran discussing a phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade

• The oil pullback gave bonds a modest reprieve and weighed a touch on the USD, helping GBP/USD stabilise

• Cable carved a 1.3210 low, then posted a modest bounce, but a durable rebound is not in the clear yet

• Technically, the 14-day RSI is at its most oversold level since Nov 2025. Not an automatic reversal signal

• Though it does caution against aggressively chasing downside

• Geopolitical tensions seemingly easing helps stall current trend, but yet to signal a decisive reversal
GBPUSD daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

ANZ Research likes buying NZD/USD on dips targeting 0.60 by year-end.

"Technically, the NZD/USD fell below support at 0.57 before settling above 0.5660. Key support holds near the year-to-date low of 0.5626 (26 June low). CFTC positioning for NZD has just turned positive over the last two weeks of data, suggesting that there may be buying pressure at current low levels," ANZ notes.

"Further, any sustained improvement in risk appetites globally or a continued easing in oil prices would strengthen NZD/USD. Overall, at such low levels, we think the NZD is a buy on dips under 0.57, targeting 0.60, our year end forecast," ANZ adds.

• Cable has traded an 18 pip range since 1000 GMT; 1.3215-1.3233

• The base of that range is the lowest level since June 30

• Bear targets include 1.3140 (2026 low, on June 24) and 1.30

• Dollar rally tells Trump Treasury that the 'house' is losing

• US current account deficit widened sharply in the second quarter

• UK retailers cut supplier orders by most since records began in 1983

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the key levels to watch in EUR/USD on the downside.

"It was notable yesterday that on a day in which the advance PMIs were stronger than expected EUR/USD continued to slide. The 38.2% retracement support level from the move higher in EUR/USD from the February 2025 low to the January 2026 high comes in at 1.1340 and that to us is the next key support," MUFG notes.

"A test and breach of that level would likely see the move lower in EUR/USD extend into a 1.10-1.12 range," MUFG adds.

Bank of America Global Research highlights the signals form its month-end rebalancing model going into September's fix next week.

"We estimate FX rebalancing needs based on a conventional 60/40 portfolio. Estimates suggest JPY GBP outflows vs EUR inflows," " BofA notes.

"For EUR, the rebalancing flows are moving in the opposite direction to other short-term indicators, suggesting that we may see some consolidation around current levels,

For GBP, both our quant signals and rebalancing flows are bearish, increasing near-term pressure on the currency," BofA adds.

• USD/JPY longs are growing more fearful about renewed intervention since spot broke last Friday's 158.06 high

• Some cash longs switched to options, with 160.00 a popular strike since the initial BoJ decision

• These options can increase in value on continued spot strength and especially if 160.00 breaks

• If BoJ intervene, topside strike options only risk their initial premium, which comes at a discount to downside strikes

• Higher downside strike premiums reflect the markets growing fear of BoJ intervention
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)