• USD/KRW remains heavy, veering toward test of 1400 psych barrier

• But tentative USD/JPY bounce back above 159 may slow USD/KRW

• USD/KRW last 1412.5, after Tues pullback to 1413.0 erased Mon gain

• Bollinger downtrend channel guides lower still, capping at 1419.0

• If 1400 barrier breaks, Fibo at 1393.0 will be targeted by shorts

• S. Korea unemployment rate rises though more jobs added
KRW


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD continues to tread water ahead of critical U.S. inflation update

• U.S. Jul CPI due later Wed, Reuters poll: headline +3.4% y/y, core +2.5% y/y

• Iran says Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until U.S. meets its demands

• Release of RBNZ Q3 expectations survey Thur will be closely watched

• NZD well supported near 0.5850, break below requires shift in RBNZ narrative

• Futures pricing currently implies 86.4% chance of 25 bps RBNZ hike Sep 2

• Range NZ 0.58775-825, support 0.5850 0.5627, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA


NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research previews the US July CPI report due on Wednesday.

"After a notably soft June CPI report, we expect the July CPI to print more in-line with recent trends, including 0.1% m/m in headline and 0.2% in core. We go into the data maintaining our call for 3 Fed hikes this year, even after last week's soft labor report. Overall labor conditions remain stable, with Fed's reaction function still skewed to the inflation side of the mandate," BofA notes.

"We expect US rates and the USD to react more to a downside print than to an equally sized upside print. While an upside print should put the Sept FOMC firmly in play, the decision would still likely hinge on August data, given Chair Warsh's apparent reluctance to hike. Conversely, a soft print would all but rule out a September hike and notably challenge market pricing of ~30bp of hikes through December. UST positioning and to a lesser extent USD positioning point marginally in this direction," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD +0.3% from Tue 0.70375 low; RBA highlights inflation-fighting focus

• RBA says further OCR hike possible with inflation risk tilted to the upside

• Iran adamant Strait of Hormuz to remain closed unless U.S. meets its demands

• AUD resistance at 0.7088 pivotal, expect stop-loss buying if breaks above

• U.S. Jul core CPI update Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent fireside chat in Sydney Thur

• Overnight range 0.7047-695 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1535 after 1.1548-1.1532 traded in Asia & Europe

• The pair lifted early on USD, USD/CNH, US yield moves lower

• 1.1548 traded; upward moves in gold, silver, stocks aided the lift

• Sellers then emerged as USD firmed up while gold, silver & stocks turned down

• Oil gains also helped EUR/UDS turned lower on the session

• EUR/USD sat near 1.1535 late in the day, it traded down -0.06%

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs are bullish signals

• US July CPI is now inf focus, an upside surprise could send EUR/USD downward
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7060 after 0.7038 traded overnight, the rally extended early

• USD, US yield , USD/CNH drops helped AUD/USD hit 0.7070

• Rallies in stocks, gold, silver and copper also contributed to the pair's rally

• Sellers emerged however and the pair fell below 0.7060 late in the day

• USD firmed up while stocks, gold, silver traded down and USD/CNH turned up

• AUD/USD was up +0.08% in NY's afternoon which helped techs lean bullish

• Rising RSIs, daily bull hammer, hold above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs are bull signals

• US July CPI due Wednesday, a below estimate result could rally AUD/USD
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the US July CPI report due on Wednesday.

"We forecast core CPI at 0.24% m/m (2.5% y/y) and headline CPI at 0.10% m/m (3.4% y/y), with the rebound driven primarily by core services returning toward their underlying trend and a pickup in core goods. Headline inflation should remain softer than core due to continued declines in energy prices-we forecast headline at 0.10%m/m (3.4%y/y, NSA index: 334.029). We think a core print rounding to 0.3% is more likely than one rounding to 0.1%," MS notes.

"The main upside risk is a larger rebound in non-housing core services than we anticipate, particularly in lodging away from home, medical services, and communication services. Downside risks appear more limited. On the goods side, apparel inflation could come in softer than expected, while a sharper-than-anticipated deceleration in household operations, a historically volatile category, could also bring down services ex-housing inflation relative to our numbers," MS adds," MS adds.

Sterling appears to have adopted a near-term bearish tilt as recent attempts to break above 1.35 have repeatedly faltered, potentially prompting some bulls to retreat, especially in a thinly traded summer market.

Despite these rejections, the subsequent pullbacks have been rather modest, suggesting underlying demand for the pound could be forming. The recent gains in sterling have been buoyed by shifting market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Following the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged, which was interpreted as dovish, and subsequent soft U.S. payrolls data, traders have adjusted their outlook, reducing expectations for rate hikes in the second half of the year. This backdrop has provided some support for GBP, but the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday will be crucial for gauging market sentiment. The Reuters consensus calls for a slight increase in both core and headline month-on-month readings, alongside a modest decline in year-on-year measures.

Additionally, next week's UK CPI data will provide insight into domestic inflation trends. However, given the recent instability in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices, investors may place less weight on the U.S. and UK inflation data due to the recent surge in oil prices following the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.

For now, GBP/USD is encountering resistance at recent daily highs of 1.3530 and 1.3556. Support is likely to hold firm within the 1.3423-1.3408 zone, an area reinforced by a convergence of daily moving averages.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US July CPI report due on Wednesday.

 "We expect a 0.19% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.47% (vs. +2.5% consensus). We expect a 0.05% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.1% consensus), reflecting lower energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a larger 0.26% increase in core PCE in July, reflecting a large increase in its portfolio management component," GS notes.

"Looking beyond July, we expect monthly core CPI increases of around 0.2% over the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories, shrinking contributions from tariff-related price increases, and the reversal of upward pressure on airfares from higher jet fuel prices, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associated oil price increases prove more persistent than expected," GS adds.

AUD/USD has reversed its overnight losses, aided by improved risk sentiment, while recent central bank commentary and technical indicators suggest the odds of a rally have increased. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at its latest meeting, but Governor Michele Bullock struck a notably hawkish tone in the post-meeting press conference, stating that another rate hike remained "quite possible" and confirming that a hike was actively discussed during the meeting. This rhetoric fueled a rally in Australian interest rates, with the 3-year government bond yield climbing to a nine-session high.

The combination of hawkish RBA signaling and broader risk-on sentiment has pushed technical indicators for AUD/USD further into bullish territory. After dipping toward the 10-day moving average, the pair rebounded, forming a bullish daily hammer candlestick, while the daily RSI turned higher once again. The pair's ability to hold above its 10-, 21-, and 55-day moving averages reinforces this positive structure. On a longer-term basis, monthly signals are equally supportive, with the RSI pointing to sustained upward momentum and a monthly bull hammer forming in August.

Attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. July CPI and PPI data. Should the figures align with expectations or point toward disinflation, markets may price in a less hawkish Fed stance , likely putting downward pressure on U.S. yields

and the dollar. Such an outcome could reignite AUD/USD's rally from its June low, with bulls potentially targeting key resistance near 0.7200.
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD -0.04%, USD/JPY -0.03%, GBP/USD -0.04%, AUD/USD 0.08%

• S&P E-minis 0.12%, DAX -0.05%, Nikkei 225 2.08%, FTSE -0.02%

• EUR/USD short squeeze stalls below 100-DMA as oil's rise weighs

• USD/JPY's biggest rise since December puts spot in the cloud

• Cable upside momentum pauses, but tone remains constructive

• AUD/USD holds near 100-day MA as ranges remain tight

• Option expiries . U.S. Open
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Aug 11 (Reuters) - FX traders should beware that Japanese authorities will likely be worried that USD/JPY is no longer trading below the Ichimoku cloud. The yen hovered near the key 160-per-dollar level on Tuesday as the impact of U.S.-Japan intervention continued to fade. USD/JPY is now stuck within the daily cloud, which currently spans 158.92 to 161.38. The pair rose 208 pips on Monday, the biggest one-day gain since December 2025, closing above the breached 158.56 Fibonacci level, which marks a 38.2% retracement of 163.99 to 155.20 intervention-driven slump. The scale of recent intervention and warnings of more action had increased the chances of a sustained move lower in USD/JPY. However, a return to trading consistently below the cloud is needed to reinforce that view. Conversely, a move above the top of the daily cloud would confirm a renewed upside bias and increase pressure on Japanese authorities to act.
Daily Chart


USD/JPY Daily Rise Table


(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD remains confined to a tight 0.7037-0.7062 range, oscillating around the 100-day MA at 0.7051

• Spot marginally softer post-RBA. Statement leaned dovish, but Gov Bullock retained a relatively hawkish tone

• Geopolitical risk remains an input for price action, with firmer oil prices amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff

• Wednesday’s U.S. CPI remains the key near-term catalyst for FX

• With market pricing assigning 50/50 odds to a September Fed hike, the data should prove market-moving

• Initial topside resistance is seen at 0.7060-75, which capped Monday’s price action

• Initial support sits at 0.7030, where the 200-hour MA cluster comes into play
AUDUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Aug 11 (Reuters) - EUR/USD is flashing warning signs after Monday's session saw the price stall at 1.1580 on EBS — a pip below Friday's peak.

The repeated highs form a double top pattern within an otherwise short-term bull trend. That formation alone is enough to put traders on alert for a potential reversal, but the technical backdrop is adding further weight to the bearish case.

The pair's failure to sustain a break above both the daily cloud top (1.1561) and the 100-day moving average (1.1567) is compounding the risk. Momentum readings aren't helping either, with the 14-day gauge beginning to lose its positive edge and the daily Relative Strength Index turning lower.

Overhead, resistance looms at 1.1587 — the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June slide from 1.1849 to 1.1325 — while the 200-day moving average, which has kept a lid on the market since May 15, sits at 1.1630.

The 20-day moving average and daily Ichimoku cloud base provide downside targets at 1.1467 and 1.1447, respectively.
EUR/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen wobbles as intervention afterglow dims, USD/JPY saw a big rise on Monday

• USD/JPY closed up 208 pips, which was the biggest one-day rise since December 2025

• It closed above 158.56 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of 163.99-155.20 intervention fueled slump

• The long-tail on August 3 candlestick points to a rejection of the USD/JPY downside

• USD/JPY has seen a 158.93-159.37 EBS range, on Tuesday

• Spot is now stuck within the thick 158.92-161.38 daily cloud resistance region

• However beware USD/JPY and EUR/JPY usually struggles in August

Daily Chart


USD/JPY Daily Rise Table


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB continues higher into afternoon trades as oil prices rise more

• Brent last +0.32% to $88.0/bbl, WTI +0.41% to $82.47/bbl

• Gold prices retreat slightly, spot last -0.35% to $4375/oz

• USD/THB last at 33.10-13, traded amid 32.97-33.11 range so far

• Nearby resistance at 33.20, 33.45; SET -0.29%
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• AUD/USD flat Tue after RBA holds its policy rate steady at 4.35% as expected

• RBA: inflation risks titled to topside, housing market weaker than expected

• RBA Governor Bullock to address post-meeting press conference 0530 GMT

• AUD resistance at 0.7088 pivotal, expect stop-loss buying on break above

• U.S. & Iran both seeking reparations, likely to stall peace negotiations

• AU Q2 wage price index, and U.S. Jul CPI due Wed, U.S. Jul PPI due Thur

• RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent fireside chat in Sydney Thur

• Range Asia 0.70375-615 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's Hawk Resources rise as much as 13.3% to A$0.034, their highest level since June 2

• Shares mark their biggest intraday pct gain since July 16

• The critical and precious metal explorer reports visible copper mineralisation in five of seven drill holes at its Cactus copper-gold project in Utah, the United States

• Adds some spots have indicated strong potential for gold mineralisation by the presence of highly anomalous silver, arsenic, and antimony

• About 6.6 million shares change hands, 4.1x the 30-day average

• Stock has gained 0.7%, YTD

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• EUR/USD flat Tue in Asia, activity constrained due to JP market holiday

• Hope for U.S.-Iran peace fades again with both sides demanding reparations

• U.S. Jul core CPI update Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y

• EU Jun industrial production due Thur, Reuters poll consensus -0.8% y/y

• EUR 1.1623 resistance hard to break first attempt, expect more consolidation

• Range Asia 1.154250-4825, support 1.1353 1.1325, resistance 1.1623 1.1850
EUR Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/THB opens steady, may see sideways trades around the 33.0 pivot

• Higher oil prices and selling from exporters to cap rally

• Pair traded 32.98-33.07 range in NY, closed at 33.0

• Supports at 32.80, 32.50, resistance at 33.10, 33.30

• USD firms ahead of inflation data on Wed, DXY last at 99.76

• UST yields up as oil prices rise amid doubts on Hormuz deal

• 10yr UST yield last at 4.70%, 2yr at 4.24%

• Brent crude last $87.76/bbl, WTI at $82.15/bbl; spot gold last $4412/oz
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• Australian gold miners rise as much as 1.8%, hit their highest level since mid-April

• Sub-index set for an eighth straight session of gains, if trend holds

• Overnight, gold prices rose nearly 1% [GOL/]

• Gold miners Northern Star Resources up 1%, while St Barbara climbs 2.1%

• Sub-index down 1.5% YTD, including session moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.3% from Mon 0.58995 high, DXY firms ahead U.S. inflation updates

• U.S. Jul core CPI due Wed (poll +2.5% y/y), PPI Thur (poll +4.9% y/y)

• U.S. & Iran both demanding reparations, likely to stall peace negotiations

• Release of RBNZ Q3 expectations survey Thur will be closely scrutinized

• NZD well supported near 0.5850, break below requires shift in RBNZ narrative

• Futures pricing presently implies 86.5% chance of 25 bps RBNZ hike Sep 2

• Range NZ 0.58815-84, support 0.5850 0.5627, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.4% from Mon 0.7074 high as markets brace for RBA outcome 0430 GMT

• No OCR change widely expected, statement & post-meeting press conference key

• AUD 0.7088 resistance tough to break, hawkish RBA surprise could trigger

• Hope for U.S.-Iran peace fades again with both sides demanding reparations

• Brent crude +5.2%, Gold rally continues to extend, DXY & UST yields firm

• AU Q2 wage price index, and U.S. Jul inflation update both due Wed

• Overnight range 0.7048-74 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research on USD/JPY outlook after the latest wave of yen-buying intervention.

"After such a large FX drop in USD/JPY, market participants’ appetite for buying the yen could remain muted for now. Certain elements of the market, like retail FX margin traders, were short USD/JPY and could be playing a role in providing renewed yen selling flows," MUFG notes.

"Those short USD/JPY positions have probably been liquidated but returning to a carry strategy (rather than directional) may be deemed as more attractive once again at these lower levels, encouraging renewed USD/JPY buying," MUFG adds