Danske Research discusses the Fed rate outlook and EUR/USD target.

"For now, we stick with our baseline call of 2x25bp hikes in December and March. That said, we think it is generally justified that markets price in around 10% probability of a jumbo hike in December. Not only was the broad-based upside surprise in core CPI exactly what the Fed's Waller warned about in his remarks before the release, but we also heard more concerned remarks from the Fed's Bowman, who has typically been among the most dovish members of the committee," Danske notes.

"We still expect EUR/USD to continue trending lower from here, and target 1.10," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Wed 0.6885 high as DXY hits 102.96 19-month high

• AUD 0.6835 support pivotal, downswing would accelerate on break below

• Deteriorating U.S. inflation outlook has Fed officials pondering higher FFR

• Futures pricing currently implies 88% chance of 25 bps Fed hike on Dec 9

• RBA Nov meeting minutes due & Governor Bullock speaking at ASIC forum Nov 17

• Overnight range 0.6844-775 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ near NorAm low in afternoon trade, -0.54% at 1.3274; NY range 1.3315-1.3267

• Spate of US data (payrolls, CPI) boosts Fed hike expectations, providing lift to USD

• LSEG's IRPR pricing 100% odds for Dec 2026 25bp hike; +73bp as early as June 2027

• Despite more aggressive BoE hike outlook, shift to higher Fed tack USD positive

• UK Sept GDP, output data on Thursday, US PPI on Friday; UK price data on Nov 18

• GBP$ supt 1.3267 Wednesday low, 1.3200 psychological lvl, 1.3137 Daily low Oct 14

• Res 1.3300 psychological lvl, 1.3328 falling 30-HYMA, 1.3385- 50% Fib of 1.3503-1.3267

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses its Fed rate outlook.

"We continue to expect a second 25bp rate hike in December and are adding a third 25bp hike to our forecast in March 2027. A third hike could come earlier in January, but we think March is a bit more likely because we expect the November and December inflation reports to be softer but then expect larger start-of-the-year price increases amidst ongoing cost pressures to boost inflation in January," GS notes.

"We have left our forecast for the eventual terminal fed funds rate unchanged at 3.25-3.5%, but we now expect rate cuts to begin one quarter later in December 2027 (vs. September 2027 previously), followed by additional cuts in March, June, and September 2028," GS adds.

GS targets EUR/USD at 1.14 by year-end.

Sterling has slid further after Tuesday’s US CPI reinforced a more hawkish Federal Reserve narrative, pushing bulls to capitulate and testing late-October lows below 1.33.

With the cash Treasury market closed for Veterans Day, FX traders are not taking direction from US rates. Treasury futures are slightly lower across the curve, and US equities are higher, which has kept the US dollar slightly bid.

Recent USD direction has been driven by shifting Fed expectations. Since the October 28 decision, a 10-2 vote with two dissenters seeking a 25bp hike, rate expectations have moved higher after the payrolls and CPI releases.

Futures price a 25bp hike in December, and some speculate on 50bp.

The bigger shift in rate expectations is in mid-2027, where LSEG’s IRPR currently indicates 75bp of Fed tightening as early as September 2027. That has prompted traders to reload USD longs, which had fallen nearly 29% from late-July highs . Volatility in AI and tech stocks, including Nvidia’s security and leadership issues, is adding to USD demand on a haven basis.

Sterling’s drubbing may be reaching oversold status. Oil has fallen more than 20% since October 26, which should eventually pull inflation lower, if Middle East tensions stay contained. Further, inflation is not a US-specific problem, and developed-market policy paths are converging, which argues against an outsized move in any single currency if rate expectations hold.

Technically, GBP/USD has support at the October 16 and 28 lows of 1.3268 and 1.3274. A break below 1.3268 opens a test of 1.3137, the October 14 low tied to French fiscal concerns. Bulls need to clear 1.3389, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3503-1.3276, to regain momentum.
GBP$ Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the Fed rates and EUR/USD outlook.

"We remain sceptical of the need to hike by 50bps at this stage and suspect the majority will see the better risk-reward in going by 25bps. We still have another payrolls report (but no further CPI prints, although it’s the day after) before the FOMC meeting and a strong print plus a rebound in crude oil after the recent sharp drop would be one scenario of a possible more aggressive hike. It’s a scenario that might add to the reasons for President Trump to push for a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict," MUFG notes.

"It’s still more a risk than a core view but it would alter the current balanced expectations in the markets across key central banks and shift rate hike expectations much more in favour of the dollar that would likely prompt a further lurch lower in EUR/USD and bring levels below the 1.1000-level into play," MUFG adds.

MUFG targets EUR/USD at 1.12 by year-end.

• EUR/USD traders get a signal to sell

• Scope for 1.0873 after break below 1.1105

• 1.1105 is mid-point 1.0125-1.2084 rise

• 1.0883 is 61.8% of the 1.1025-1.2084 rally

• Drop stretched below base 20 day/month Bollingers

• The Big EUR/USD short is increasingly hard to justify

• FX traders should consider implications of lower oil

•
EURUSD monthly chart

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses tech dominates cross-border equity flows and their impact on FX markets.

"Our cross-border equity flow analysis suggests that USD, AUD, and CAD have the greatest relative exposure to a wobble in AI sentiment. Of these, AUD arguably has the least attractive risk-reward as it is vulnerable to both a broad risk-off move, as well as a tech-focused unwind," BofA notes.

"By contrast, EUR and NZD have benefited relatively little from tech flows in recent years. The domicile breakdown flags that US investors have allocated less to Euro-area equities vs. other countries in 2026, potentially providing less flow support for EUR/USD this year . A further improvement in tech-sector sentiment would therefore, at the margin, favour other currencies over them. Conversely, EUR and NZD could be useful diversifiers if the AI narrative falter," BofA adds.

BofA targets AUD/USD at 0.70, and NZD/USD at 0.57 by year-end.

• US-listed shares of gold miners gain premarket, tracking a rise in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold rise 0.5% to $4,052.26/ounce, after dropping as much as 3% to $4,013.29 in the previous session

• Prices edge higher but remain near the $4,000 level after the previous session's selloff on hot US inflation data and hawkish rate comments

• Top miners: Newmont and Barrick Mining rise 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively

• South African miners: Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold up between 1% and 1.4% each

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold gains 1.8% each

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY has risen from 158.67 to 159.08, on Wednesday, EBS data shows

• Spot has broken above the 159.03, September 24 high, a bullish sign

• However, traders are wary of intervention in USD/JPY above 159.00

• Recall USD/JPY closed above the daily cloud, that currently spans 157.14-158.42, on Tuesday

• EUR/JPY usually rises in November; chart hints at repeat

Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• One-month EUR/USD vol 5.7 vs historic lows around 4.0

• This despite pair's recent slide to a 2026 low

• Volatility recently lessening as EUR/USD has dropped

• Options imply less chance of greater movement

• EUR/USD traders get a signal to sell

• The Big EUR/USD short is increasingly hard to justify

•
EURUSD and vol

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 21-WMA falling below 100-WMA - sell signal

• The pair dropped to 1.1140 in wake US CPI data

• The 2026 low is 1.1105

• The 200-weekly moving average is 1.1112

• Mid-point of 2025-2026 rise from 1.0125 to 1.2084 is 1.1105

• Close below 1.1105 (1.1100) would target drop toward 1.0850

• The Big EUR/USD short is increasingly hard to justify

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY closed above the cloud, that currently spans 157.14-158.42, on Tuesday

• That puts the overall focus on the 159.03, September 24 high

• Spot has seen a 158.67-158.96 range so far, on Wednesday, according to EBS data

• Good offers still around 159.00 capping upside, may include Japan exporters

• Note FX traders are wary of intervention in USD/JPY above 159.00

• EUR/JPY usually rises in November; chart hints at repeat

Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 22 pip range thus far Wednesday; 1.3333-1.3355

• Tuesday low was 1.3312, after USD rose on hot US CPI, hawkish Fed officials

• Quarter-point Fed hike on Dec 9 is fully priced; 12% chance of 50 bps hike

• 1.3312 is lowest level since Oct 29 (1.3299 was low that day)

• Tuesday high was 1.3459, before dollar strengthened on Fed's Waller

• Next BoE rate decision on Dec 17: markets see 66% chance of 25 bps hike

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Anax Metals rise as much as 25% to A$0.04, their biggest intraday percentage gain since February

• Stock posts its highest level since September 28

• The mineral explorer says drilling at its Mons Cupri project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia identified a potential new zinc-silver zone

• Near 15.1 million shares change hands, 7.5x the 30-day average volume

• Stock up 94.7%, YTD, including moves in current session

(Reporting by Swetha Lakshmi in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Wed as risk sentiment improves in Asia, Nasdaq futures +1.2%

• CoreWeave +17.1% in extended hours trading after beating quarterly estimates

• Building Fed rate hike anxiety likely to keep lid on moves

• Futures pricing currently implies 88% chance of 25 bps Fed hike on Dec 9

• AUD 0.6835 support pivotal, break below opens door for much larger fall

• AU Q3 housing finance -15.5% q/q, investment housing finance -32.3% q/q

• RBA Nov meeting minutes due & Governor Bullock speaking at ASIC forum Nov 17

• Overnight range 0.6865-85 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD steadies in Asia after closing 0.7% lower on Tue on sticky US CPI

• Undermined by hawkish Fed talk, possibility of more aggressive rate hikes

• Waller floats 50 bps Dec rate hike, Logan says rapid rate-hike pace possible

• GBP seen in a choppy 1.3300-1.3500 range as hawkish BoE offsets Fed hawks

• UK inflation to overshoot BoE target for next 4 years, NIESR forecasts

• UK Q3 and Sep GDP, industrial and manufacturing output, trade data due Thu

• Support 1.3300-10, 1.3270-75, resistance 1.3400-10, 1.3430

• Tuesday range 1.33115-1.3459, Asia 1.3343-1.3355
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD heavy after fall to 1.1145 yesterday, Asia 1.1159-70 EBS

• Back below ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 1.1182-1.1200

• USD broadly bid after hot CPI data, on higher US yields

• Certainty of a Fed hike in December too, chance of 50 bp move 10%

• Option expiries today include E3.8 bln on 1.11, E8.1 bln between 1.1200-50

• Expiries to help contain spot, upside very limited on mega-expiries

• EUR/GBP better bid after rally to 0.8372 yesterday, NY close 0.8366

• Option expiries 0.8325-50 E1.2 bln, 0.8365-80 E338 mln, 0.8400 E936 mln

• EUR/CHF also bid, 0.9219-20 EBS, above yesterday's 0.9217 high

• EUR/JPY in stasis, 177.23-30 EBS after a 177.04-70 range yesterday

• Option expiries today include E614 mln below at 176.00 strike

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/USD nearby option expiries this week:


EUR/CHF:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Thur, but still pressured amid firming Fed rate hike bets

• AU Q3 housing finance -15.5% q/q, investment housing finance -32.3% q/q

• AUD 0.6835 support critical, break below opens door for much bigger fall

• Futures pricing currently implies 88% chance of 25 bps Fed hike on Dec 9

• Fed Governor Waller floats potential preference for 50 bps FFR hike

• Hotter than anticipated U.S. inflation data drives DXY & UST yields higher

• RBA Nov meeting minutes due & Governor Bullock speaking at ASIC forum Nov 17

• Overnight range 0.6865-715 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Hot US CPI data raised US yields and spurred talk of maybe a 50 bp Fed hike

• Such talk augmented by Fed's Waller who said 50 bp hike should be considered

• USD/JPY rallied to 158.85 EBS on back of this talk, Asia so far 158.69-71

• USD/JPY back above 157.13-158.42 daily Ichimoku cloud, near 158.70 200-DMA

• Descending 100-DMA just above at 159.00, FX intervention risk too 159.00+

• Break above 159.00 bullish however, pair not above 100-DMA since September 2

• Option expiries today larger below than above

• Between 157.00-158.00 total $5.6 bln+, between 158.95-159.00 total $623 mln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials widen some, 2s @277, 10s @218 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , more on Fed , on US CPI

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research on Gold outlook. 

"In commodities, the sharp decline in crude oil triggered some long unwinds, and further weakness could bring additional selling from CTAs that remain stretched long," BofA notes

"Gold shorts remain elevated, but the rebound has brought the first buy-to-cover triggers to roughly 2% above current levels. Trend followers also stopped out of copper longs this week, while selling could broaden across the soybean complex next week.

BofA targets Gold prices around $4,000 per troy ounce by year-end with marginal lows s below that level.

• NZD/USD -0.8% from Tue 0.5649 high after Fed rate hike bets firm markedly

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller flags possibility of 50 bps hike

• Futures pricing now implies 88% probability of 25 bps Fed hike on Dec 9

• U.S. Oct core CPI +0.3% m/m (poll 0.2%), headline CPI +0.4% m/m (poll 0.3%)

• NZD appears to be resuming downside bias, targets 0.5485 support zone

• NZ Oct electronic card retail sales due Thur (prior -0.4% m/m, +0.9% y/y)

• NZ PM Luxon likely to retain power, but may need more minor party support

• Range NZ 0.55915-0.56045, support 0.5485, resistance 0.5710 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.9% from Tue 0.69295 high as hot U.S. inflation update impacts

• U.S. Oct core CPI +0.3% m/m (poll 0.2%), headline CPI +0.4% m/m (poll 0.3%)

• Broad USD index 0.6% firmer and UST yields higher across the curve

• Futures pricing now implies 88% probability of Fed rate hike on Dec 9

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller flags possibility of 50 bps hike

• AUD 0.6835 support critical, break below opens door for much bigger fall

• Overnight range 0.6844-0.69295 support 0.6835 0.6662, resistance 0.7140
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)