• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Wednesday 24 June

• EUR/USD: 1.1300 (550M), 1.1350-55 (1.1BLN), 1.1360-65 (576M)

• 1.1400-05 (1.1BLN), 1.1415-25 (775M), 1.1450 (2.7BLN), 1.1465-70 (518M)

• 1.1475-80 (792M), 1.1490-95 (483M), 1.1500-10 (14.93BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Everest Metals Corp rise as much as 4.8% to A$0.11, its highest point since June 18

• The gold-silver developer says it finds further high-grade gold from drilling at its Mt Dimer Taipan Gold Project in Australia

• "The drilling has generated valuable data that will support ongoing mine planning, ore scheduling and the upcoming Mineral Resource update," says executive chairman, CEO of EMC, Mark Caruso

• Despite moves, stock down 12.5%, YTD

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's True North Copper rise as much as 10.8% to A$0.41, their biggest intraday pct gain since May 21

• The copper explorer says it is advancing Pre-Feasibility Study for its Cloncurry Copper Project in Australia

• Says integration of recently acquired Mongoose Resource and adjacent Taipan copper deposit has potential to enhance project scale, mining operations, including others

• Says results slated for Q4 2026

• Despite moves, stock down 24.2% YTD
(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Wed after trimmed mean CPI rises to 3.6% y/y (poll 3.5%)

• Result harbours concern for RBA with inflation not yet under control

• AU May CPI -0.7% m/m, 4.0% y/y (poll consensus -0.4%, +4.3% respectively)

• USD index remains elevated near 13-month highs as FFR hike expectations grow

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in Melbourne later Wed

• AU May employment data due Thur, Reuters poll: +30k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Range Asia 0.69105-215, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089 0.7200
DXY Daily 55-DMA


AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 2.1% to hit their lowest level since June 15

• Losses weigh on broader mining sub-index , down 0.8%

• Gold prices slipped on Tuesday after the U.S. dollar hit a one-year high on increased hopes of a Federal Reserve rate hike [GOL/]

• Evolution Mining falls as much as 1.1%, Resolute Mining drops as much as 3.2% to hit its lowest level since June 12

• AXGD down 13.5% YTD
(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• USD bid across the board, safe haven flows tipped on Wall Street falls

• Geopolitical concerns still too, US rates off though on flows from stocks

• USD/JPY in familiar place, new equilibrium on 161, Asia 161.55-61 EBS

• Defensive offers likely still in place ahead of large 162.00 option KOs

• Some exporter offers seen mixed in topside

• Threat of Japan FX intervention too, surprising no action yet.

• With yen shorts even larger now, market may be ripe for a correction

• Latest IMM CTA data show yen shorts up to 150,132 contracts as of June 16

• Option expiries today likely USD/JPY supportive, massive $1.4 bln 161.20-25

• More trail down into the 159 handle, gravitation pull from 161.50 $708 mln?

• Japanese importer buys on dips, foreign investors stock buy hedges too?

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on IMM CTAs , US economy

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.9% from Tue 0.5717 high as tech stock rout dents risk appetite

• Pair looks set to extend lower after breaking through key 0.5680 support

• Broad USD index continues to strengthen, makes fresh 101.43 13-month high

• FFR rate hike bets increasing as Fed officials swing more hawkish

• U.S. Senate advanced legislation requiring Trump to end Iran military action

• RBNZ Governor Breman will attend the annual closed-door BIS conference Fri

• Range NZ 0.56657-69, support 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012 0.6093
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research summarizes the latest reading from its G10 positioning model.

"The USD remains the biggest long in the G10 FX at present and saw some buying interest last week, predominantly driven by Tactical flows. Our FX flow data points at banks inflows as well as corporates, hedge funds and real money investors outflows," CACIB notes.

"The NZD remains the largest short in the G10 FX at present and faced mild selling interest last week, predominantly driven by IMM flows. Our FX flow data points at banks, hedge funds and real money investors inflows as well as corporates outflows," CACIB adds.

• AUD/USD -1.2% late Tue as USD index reaches fresh 101.43 13-month high

• AUD targeting 0.6834 support as downside momentum builds, data will be key

• AU May CPI update due Wed (Reuters poll consensus -0.4% m/m, +4.3% y/y)

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in Melbourne later Wed

• AU May employment data due Thur, Reuters poll: +30k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Risk sentiment in retreat: COMEX Copper -3.7%, Gold -1.9% and equities lower

• AUD targeting 0.6834 support as downside momentum builds, data will be key

• Overnight range 0.6908-62, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1405 after 1.1439 traded overnight, the pair's slide extended

• Risk-off sentiment had investors seeking out the safety of the USD

• Gold , silver & equities fell to reinforce the bid for USD

• EUR/JPY drop toward 183.80, USD/CNH rally contributed to EUR/USD's fall

• EUR/USD hit a 1-year low of 1.1375, traded down -0.43% in NY's afternoon

• Bearish signs increased after neckline of head & shoulders on monthly chart broke

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs & pair's hold below 10- & 21-DMAs reinforced bear signs
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6945 after 0.7003 traded overnight, price drop then extended

• Broad-based USD buying due to risk off trading weighed down AUD/USD

• Significant drops in gold, silver, copper along with equity drops added weight

• USD/CNH's rally toward 6.7980 & AUD/JPY's drop contributed to AUD/USD moving lower

• The pair hit 0.6915 in NY's afternoon, was trading down -1.23% late in the day

• Techs are bearish; RSIs are falling, pair below psychological 0.7000 level & 10-DMA
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research adopts a bullish bias on NZD and expects AUD/NZD to drift lower towards 1.17 by year-end.

"We take a constructive view on the NZD. Of the G10 currencies, we expect it to be a key beneficiary of the US-Iran deal. It will get support from better risk sentiment and the likely pullback in oil prices via the terms-of-trade channel. Additionally, based on market pricing, the RBNZ is set to enter the most aggressive tightening cycle of all G10 central banks to year end which will be supportive via rate differentials, particularly given our view of stretched rate hike expectations for various other G10 central banks. We continue to expect the RBNZ to deliver three consecutive 25bp hikes, commencing in July and taking the Official Cash Rate to a terminal 3%," ANZ notes.

"On the crosses, the AUD/NZD pulled back slightly after reaching a year-to-date high near 1.23. We think the pair has peaked this year and continue to forecast a yearend rate of 1.17. The NZD would be better supported, as a decline in oil prices will reduce its negative terms-of-trade shock. Additionally, with the RBA and RBNZ at different stages of their hiking cycles, AU-NZ rate differentials would likely be supportive of a lower AUD/NZD," ANZ adds.

EUR/USD hit a one-year low on Tuesday as investors rotated into the safety of the U.S. dollar, while bearish technicals imply the pair could weaken further. Even so, traders holding short EUR/USD positions may need to closely watch U.S. inflation markets, which are hinting that the Federal Reserve may not need to stay as hawkish as is currently expected.

Both U.S. 2-year and 5-year inflation breakeven rates rose from December through early May, but have since reversed lower. They are now trading below the levels seen before the Iran conflict and have fallen back to territory last seen in January. U.S. 2-year and 5-year inflation-linked swaps have followed a similar path, also moving back toward pre-conflict levels.

A key driver has been oil . As the U.S. and Iran move toward a peace deal, oil prices fell sharply from April highs and could decline further. If that happens, market-based inflation measures may face additional downside pressure.

That makes upcoming U.S. PCE, CPI, and PPI releases especially important. If those reports show inflation is not as strong as currently feared, the dollar and U.S. rates markets could retreat sharply if they lead investors to reduce expectations for Fed rate hikes . If market-based inflation gauges are right, EUR/USD short positions could be vulnerable to a sharp squeeze higher.
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eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the scope for another wave of JPY intervention by Japan's MoF.

'According to MoF data released last week, the MoF still has USD1.3trn in FX reserves it can use to intervene in FX markets. It could therefore intervene on the scale it did in April-May by over 15 more times. The same FX reserve data released last week, however, also suggest Japan likely sold USTS to finance its record USD73bn of FX intervention in the April-May period. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said in the past that he would prefer Japan support the JPY via higher rates rather than FX intervention. The US government is becoming increasingly sensitive about the higher UST yields. So, investors could be thinking US-Japan politics could limit the MOF's ability to intervene," CACIB notes.

"As if to contradict these suspicions, Katayama continues to ramp up her verbal intervention in the FX market saying that she spoke to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for almost an hour as part of a follow up to the G7 meeting last week. She also repeated that authorities remain prepared to take bold action in FX and that the agreement between the US and Japan on FX has not changed," CACIB adds.

Sterling weakened on Tuesday, as a broad AI-driven equities selloff boosted the dollar, and faces a challenging outlook over the next week or so as the market awaits more news on the next UK government after the resignation of Keir Starmer.

Though losing ground, sterling was performing better than most major currencies, except the yen, on Tuesday. Trader focus remains on the downside, including critical support levels below 1.32, in the face of broad dollar strength.

Though sterling initially rose after Starmer's resignation announcement -- which ended the weeks of speculation that had dogged the pound -- focus is now on who will take the role of finance minister due to fiscal concerns that held sway over gilts and British currency.

Meanwhile, Fed-BoE rate expectations are shifting decisively in favour of the dollar. LSEG's IRPR data is discounting 38bp of Fed tightening by year-end versus 27bp frome the BoE. Critically, the Fed's first move is anticipated in September, whereas the BoE is not expected to hike until Q4 2026—a timeline differential that narrows the UK rate advantage that had previously supported sterling.

Technically, should support at 1.3160 — the March 31 low — give way, bears are likely to target November 2025 lows just above 1.30. On the topside, the June 22 high at 1.3272 acts as initial resistance, with a more significant hurdle for bulls at the falling 10-day moving average around 1.3323.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the scope for another wave of JPY intervention by Japan's MoF.

"Yesterday USD/JPY moved to within touching distance of the high from July 2024 at 161.95 but failed to break above. It is viewed as important level among market participants encouraging renewed speculation that Japan could intervene again soon to support the yen.

At the same time, intervention speculation has been encouraged by media reports that a phone call was held yesterday between Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. After the call, Finance Minister Katayama told reporters that the two had agreed to take “bold steps” on currencies if needed, and said the two nations are increasingly “aligned” on foreign exchange rate policy," MUFG notes.

"The phone call was described as a follow-up to last week’s G7 meeting. The comments will encourage expectations that the Japan and the US could intervene together to lower USD/JPY which would likely prove more effective than the recent unilateral action undertaken by Japan in late April and early May," MUFG adds.

HSBC Research expects GBP/USD to move lower over the next month.

"We think GBP/USD is likely move lower, and the reason is simple. The forces that typically support GBP are fading, while the headwinds are getting louder. 

First, the Fed's shift on 17 June matters because it changes the direction of travel for relative rates. Chair Warsh is running a more hawkish regime, with a clearer focus on getting US inflation back to 2% for the first time in more than five years. 

The second risk is that fiscal concerns re-emerge as a market theme. In the Autumn budget, Chancellor Reeves increased the fiscal buffer to GBP22bn. But buffers are only comforting if they stay intact, and the early signs are that it is already being eroded," HSBC notes.

"Politics is the third headwind.  we flagged the Makerfield by-election (18 June) as a key risk event... Burnham may be constrained by fiscal realities on one hand, but he's also promising change on the other. Markets will now wait for concrete policy proposals.

With Warsh's Fed pulling relative rates against GBP, fiscal headroom looking less secure, and politics adding uncertainty, we expect GBP-USD to drift lower over the next month," HSBC adds.

• EUR/USD posts new lows since Aug at 1.1405 Tues - held by 1.1400 option barriers and more tech supports

• FX options now well primed for deeper FX declines but expect premiums to increase again if 1.1400 breaks

• Aside from the broad demand for lower strike options, dealers report more interest to buy specific dates

• Post July 29 and Sept 16 Fed are increasingly popular, as are US jobs and inflation data releases in that time frame

• If July 17 Fed anything to go by - upcoming Fed meetings can create more of the volatility upon which FX options thrive
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD -0.21%, USD/JPY -0.14%, GBP/USD -0.26%, AUD/USD -0.67%

• S&P E-minis -1.23%, DAX -1.07%, Nikkei 225 -3.55%, FTSE -0.28%

• New EUR/USD lows - bigger barriers/support levels now in play

• Yen remains at risk of a bigger decline

• GBP/USD on 1.32 handle as Burnham prepares for No 10

• AUD/USD falls to 11-week low as global stocks sag

• Option expiries . U.S. Open
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

June 23 (Reuters) - Cable has been in a steady downtrend since late April, and the technical picture suggests the selling pressure has further to run — with a key moving average now acting as the last line of defence before a significantly deeper decline. The British pound did move higher versus both the euro and dollar on Monday and early Tuesday following Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation announcement. But these gains proved to be short-lived and sterling has come under fresh pressure Tuesday. A resurgent dollar, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and lingering global risk aversion have all conspired to leave sterling with few friends in the market.

Sterling dropped 0.3% versus the dollar to $1.3180 in early Monday trading but closed the session at 1.3250. However, the pound has already lost around 3% since February as Starmer's leadership came under increasing threat from Labour party challengers.

From a technical standpoint, the rot set in during May, when cable broke below its 10-week moving average — a level that had previously acted as reliable support. That break confirmed sellers had wrested control, and the pair has drifted lower ever since. Sterling is now testing the 100-week moving average at $1.3192, a structurally significant level. A sustained close beneath it would open the door to the 200-week moving average at $1.2782 — a move of roughly 3% from current levels.

Starmer's resignation marks a significant political development, but the muted reaction in sterling suggests markets had largely anticipated the outcome. After weeks of speculation over his future, investors appear to view the announcement less as a shock and more as the formal conclusion of a process already priced into UK assets.

More importantly, GBP/USD is currently being driven by forces beyond Westminster. The resignation changes little about the fundamental drivers of the currency pair. If anything, sterling's inability to rally on an orderly political transition highlights the dominance of monetary policy and interest-rate expectations in current FX pricing.

Bears should not grow complacent, however. A recovery back above the 10-week moving average at $1.3419 would signal the selloff has exhausted itself and shift the near-term bias back to neutral. Until political uncertainty in the UK gets settled, sterling will face continued pressures.
GBP/USD weekly chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD slides to 0.6950 as global stock losses weigh on risk-sensitive AUD

• Kospi down 9.99%; Nikkei down 3.6%. 0.6950 is the lowest level since April 7

• 0.6979 (June 11 low) is now a resistance level, with 0.70 beyond

• Australian May CPI data is due on Wednesday; 4.3% YY forecast

• Australia's tax overhaul chills nation's long love affair with property

• BofA, Deutsche Bank expect Fed to raise rates in September

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects Monday's daily range at the end of final line)

• Bessent-Katayama intervention talks late Monday flipped USD/JPY option sentiment, sparking a scramble for front-end downside

• 159.00 strikes popular, especially expiries post-NFP, as traders hedge growing perceived risk of intervention-driven drop

• JPY calls increase already high premium to puts — 1-month risk reversals from 1.2 to 1.45, reflecting growing downside risks

• 1-month implied vol edges to 8.0 - already up sharply from 6.3 last week, as breakout and intervention fears keep nerves on edge

• Spot USD/JPY steadies in tight 161.52-69 range on Tuesday after Monday's sharp retreat from 161.93 to 161.06
USD/JPY FX option implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gateway Mining surges up to 13% to A$0.052, notching its sharpest intraday jump since April 20 and scaling to a one-and-a-half-week high

• Initial air core drilling at the Great Western project in Western Australia points to a broad, large-scale gold-silver system, the miner says

• Adds that unexpectedly strong silver hits across multiple holes are extending outward from the system’s gold-rich core

• Stock down 31.5% YTD
(Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru) ((; X: @thatstanishk Click here))

• Shares of Australia's Leeuwin Metals gain as much as 24.3% to A$0.23, their biggest intraday percent gain since May 19

• The mineral explorer says regional targeting identifies significant gold intercepts at the Marda Gold Project in Western Australia

• Around 1 million shares change hands, nearly 2.3x 30-day average

• Leeuwin stock up 28.8%, YTD
(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)