• EUR/USD option risk reversals widen — EUR put over call volatility premium signals persistent downside FX risk

• 1-month 25-delta risk reversal increases to 0.55, from 0.45 Monday and 0.35 last week

• Volatility premium echoes prior warning: same signal preceded EUR/USD's break below 1.1400

• Implied volatility rises as EUR/USD slips on US-Iran deal setback, oil price gains

• Rising downside premium justified - risk reversals holders benefit from lower spot and higher implied vol

• However, premium yet to threaten 0.725 April/June peak; US CPI now the key swing factor

• Huge 1.1400 option expiry helps contain ahead of any US CPI surprise
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• The price of natural gas has risen to its highest since April

• The eurozone is a major importer of gas, while U.S. exports

• At $56 and $61 March highs are not far off Jul's $51.5 peak

• Weak EUR/USD bounce may suggest deeper losses

• Drop below Jun low 1.1325, 100-WMA 1.1305 would be significant

•
EURUSD vs Natgas and oil


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Tuesday July 14

• EUR/USD: 1.1300 (2.2BLN), 1.1345-50 (550M), 1.1395-1.1405 (4.3BLN), 1.1325 (345M), 1.1440 (222M)

• 1.1470-75 (437M), 1.1500 (467M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8100-10 (876M), 0.8200 (1BLN)

• GBP/USD: 1.3250 (371M), 1.3400 (400M), 1.3410-15 (206M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6900 (608M), 0.6960 (479M), 0.6975-80 (522M).

AUD/NZD: 1.2000 (331M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4000 (514M), 1.4150-60 (300M), 1.4230 (299M)

• USD/JPY: 160.50 (695M), 162.00 (819M), 162.40-50 (440M), 163.00 (860M)

• FX options wrap - Cautious calm amid Mid-East strikes and US CPI risk (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Kingfisher Mining rise as much as 31.6% to A$0.1, highest level since January 27

• Stock logs biggest intraday pct gain since late July 2025

• Gold exploration co says drilling at Copper Blow project confirmed high-grade copper-gold mineralisation

• Project located in New South Wales (NSW), Australia

• About 2.5 million shares change hands vs 38.4x the 30-day average

• Stock down 13.8% YTD, including session moves

(Reporting by Shravya Marakini in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY looks to have hit a ceiling a sorts after the good bounce yesterday

• High yesterday 162.49 EBS, ease back in Asia from 162.48 to 162.25

• Despite USD positives (US-Iran, hawkish Fed), some JPY buys on Katayama talk

• FinMin Katayama doubled down on plan for pensions to target Japan assets

• Nothing specific but likely to boost Japanese assets, yen down the road

• USD/JPY around its 162.37 hourly Ichi tenkan, 100-HMA 162.19, kijun 162.16

• Only nearby option expiries today of note 161.99-162.00 $819 mln below

• EUR/JPY 184.81-96 EBS, heavy but off lows

• Pivoting around 184.61-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud between 184.91-185.15 resistance?

• CHF/JPY also heavy, 199.14-58, still above ascending 200-DMA at 198.57

• GBP/JPY consolidating recent gains, 216.62-94 just off recent highs

• In 216.66-217.11 hourly Ichi cloud, 200/100-HMAs 216.52 below/217.12 above

• AUD/JPY sideways, 112.20-48, in 111.82-113.58 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Also back in 112.31-43 hourly Ichi cloud, 200-HMA 112.27, 100-HMA 112.48

• NZD/JPY well bid, 93.27 to 93.99, broke top of 93.03-87 daily Ichi cloud

• Highest since 94.09 June 5 after hawkish RBNZ Conway talk

• Related comments , , , also

• Also on GBP/JPY , NZD/JPY

• On Katayama-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


NZD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD inches higher as risk sentiment attempts a tepid recovery in Asia

• Rise capped by sales vs Kiwi on diverging central bank rate expectations

• New Zealand's central bank warns inflation could become persistent

• Higher oil costs could lift inflation expectations- RBNZ Chief Economist

• 2-year AU-NZ swap spread drops to around +80bps from near +107bps a week ago

• AUD/NZD down 0.5% to a more than 3-month, next support 1.1932 Mar 30 low

• Decline targets 1.1820, the 200-day MA; resistance 1.2030, 1.2060

• AUD /NZD range 1.1973-1.2027; AUD support 0.6900-05, resistance 0.6945-50
AUD/NZD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of diversified miner Black Cat Syndicate fall as much as 2.8% to A$0.885, their lowest level since July 2

• Co temporarily suspends operations at Lakewood gold processing plant following a mill bearing failure

• Says repairs have commenced, operations expected to be back to normal by the end of this week

• Stock down 29.8% YTD including moves in current session
(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD soft in Asia after closing 0.5% lower Mon on broad USD strength

• Weighed down by risk aversion as U.S.-Iran hostilities escalate

• U.S. crude up 9% as Trump reinstates blockade of Iranian shipping in Gulf

• U.S. 2-year rallies 8bps to highest since Feb 2025, stocks slide

• Rising Fed rate hike bets to cap AUD rallies; U.S. CPI, Warsh testimony Tue

• Support 0.6900-05 but 200-day MA at 0.6879 key; daily close below bearish

• Resistance 0.6945-50, 0.6965-70; Asia range 0.6913-0.6920
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Seems Japan GPIF news discounted, impact trumped by other developments

• USD broadly bid on hawkish Fed talk, US-Iran war re-start, US CPI concerns

• View higher US inflation could possibly lead to Fed rate hike this month

• USD/JPY 162.40-48 EBS so far, quiet, market still nervous over FX action

• Immediate impact of any GPIF asset re-allocation to take time

• Market consensus still for now BOJ rate hike late this month

• Good hourly chart support eyed now at 162.19 ascending 100-HMA

• Nearby option expiries today skimpy, around 162.00 $819 mln, 163.00 $861 mln

• JGB-US short-long rate differentials widening again, USD supportive

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Fed Waller-speak , on US-Iran
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses the USD outlook into this week's US CPI report and Fed Warsh'ssemi-annual monetary policy testimony.

"Attention will now turn to the release of the June US CPI report and semi-annual monetary policy testimony from Fed Chair Warsh. If underlying inflation pressures remain contained, it could prompt market participants to scale back expectations for Fed hikes, resulting in a reversal of the recent USD rally. It would also help to reduce pressure on Japanese policymakers to support the JPY," MUFG notes.

Finance Minister Katayama stepped up verbal intervention last week by stating that the government wants to encourage households, as well as pension funds including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase their investment in Japanese financial assets. While a significant shift in asset allocation appears unlikely in the near term, the comments have helped to ease selling pressure on both JGBs and the JPY. Over the longer term, however, this policy shift could have more far-reaching implications for domestic capital flows and provide more support for Japanese financial markets," MUFG adds.

• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon trade, -0.3% at 1.3360; Monday range 1.3411-1.3358

• Mideast tensions, US reinstates blockade of Iran in Hormuz boosted USD broadly

• Despite several forays above 1.34, bulls unable to hold above; supt eyed by 10-DMA 1.3355

• Oil +6%, adds to angst over persistent global inflation; gilt yields rise ups fiscal concerns

• Tuesday events: US CPI, Warsh Hse testimony & UK FinMin Reeves mansion House speech

• GBP$ supt 1.3358/55 Mon low/10DMA, 1.3323 daily low Jul 8, 1.3296- 50% of 1.3140-1.3452

• Res 1.3409/11 daily cloud base/Mon high, 1.3452 Jul 10 daily high, 1.3498 upper 30-d Bolli

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1435 after EUR/USD traded 1.1385-1.1446 in Asia & Europe

• The pair began falling in early NY as the USD & US yields

gained

• EUR/USD's drop then intensified as risk soured; gold, silver, equities sank

• USD/CNH's rally into positive territory and persistent USD bid weighed on EUR/USD

• Comments from Pres. Trump on the Strait of Hormuz kept risk-off in place

• EUR/USD hit 1.1383 during comments from the Fed's Waller

• The pair held near 1.1385 late, it traded down -0.21% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs are falling, pair below 10- & 21-DMA, daily inverted hammer formed
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research expects Gold prices to find a floor in the near-term.

"Gold resumed its decline as renewed Middle East tensions revived inflation concerns. Any rebound in energy prices could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, raising the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Swap markets are now pricing more than a 30% chance of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting, up from around 20% last week. Investor appetite is subdued, with gold-backed ETF holdings seeing further liquidation," ANZ notes.

"Structurally, Asia continues is emerging as the new centre for gold investment demand. Hong Kong’s trial launch of a central gold clearing and settlement system this week, alongside closer connectivity with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, should deepen regional market infrastructure and improve access for institutional investors. Together with Singapore’s growing role as a bullion hub, this reinforces the shift of gold trading and demand from West to East, providing structural support for regional gold consumption. We see gold imports in Hong Kong and China staying strong despite weak seasonal demand," ANZ adds.

(Adds chart)

• USD/CAD upside momentum stalled ahead of 1.4250, now rotating lower to test range support at 1.4140

• 1.4140 marks key near-term support, a break would signal scope for a broader corrective pullback

• Sustained downside through this level opens 1.4000, with deeper support layered at 1.3930–67

• Positioning remains stretched, with net USD/CAD longs at highs since Jan 2025 - historically a reversal signal

• USD/CAD net longs are at the highest since January 2025 and are at levels that shortly follow a reversal

• Into U.S. CPI, a softer print would heighten squeeze risk and amplify downside pressure
USDCAD positioning


USDCAD chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research summarizes the latest G10 FX flows patterns.

"USD demand vs CHF and CAD stands out post-June FOMC USD demand vs CHF and CAD has been the dominant post-June FOMC theme in G10 FX flows  Positioning risks are most evident in GBP, NZD, and CAD shorts, while JPY positioning remains short and EUR positioning light," BofA notes.

"We remain comfortable with our bullish bias on JPY, GBP and NZD. Although CHF remains our preferred funder, CHF shorts are becoming increasingly crowded. Within G4, we continue to favour tactical USD longs against the EUR," BofA adds.

Sterling looks set to grind higher in the near-term as unwinding of UK short positioning outweighs event risk.

Though GBP/USD softened slightly on Monday the pair remains anchored near trend highs by 1.34, as markets await Tuesday's U.S. CPI release for fresh clues on the Fed's near-term policy path. Also in focus is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, which will be parsed for any policy adjustments; yet given the new chair's reluctance to offer guidance outside of data releases, the appearance is unlikely to deliver any market-moving nuggets.

In the UK, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' annual Mansion House speech is set to attract considerable attention from market participants. These events may heighten volatility, yet the overall landscape for GBP/USD appears complex due to ongoing geopolitical tensions that have recently pushed oil prices higher, consequently elevating global inflation expectations.

Technically, the pound has reversed last week's rise into the daily cloud, currently spanning 1.3437-1.3409. With limited fresh data on UK growth and inflation, and a significantly more stable political backdrop, short positions in the pound are likely to continue unwinding, potentially pushing GBP/USD higher. Bulls will target the cloud top near 1.3437 and the July 10 high at 1.3452. However, a downside surprise in U.S. CPI, given the recent dip in oil prices, could see bulls take out late May highs just above 1.35 on the way to testing early May highs in the mid-1.3650s.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a scope for a bullish recovery in EUR/GBP.

'"We believe that the latest EUR/GBP correction is close to running out of steam and expect the cross to recover back towards 0.860 in coming months because: (1) EUR/GBP is starting to look very cheap relative to its short-term fair value that we estimate on the basis of EUR-GBP rate spread and measures of relative sovereign credit risks among other drivers; (2) there is a risk that the Labour party could adopt left-wing policies after this week's change of guard at the helm that could shatter the calm in the gilt markets and hurt the GBP; and (3) the current market BoE outlook is too hawkish and the GBP should continue to lose its rate advantage over the EUR, in our view," CACIB notes.

"Focus this week will be on the UK GDP data for May, due on Thursday," CACIB adds.

Goldman Sachs previews the US June CPI report due on Tuesday, July 14.

"We expect a 0.17% increase in June core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.76% (vs. +2.9% consensus). We expect a 0.11% decline in headline CPI (vs. -0.1% consensus), reflecting lower energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in June, reflecting another large increase in its financial services component," GS notes.

"We expect monthly core CPI increases around 0.2% over the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories and the reversal of upward pressure from higher jet fuel prices and the World Cup on the travel services categories, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associated oil price increases prove more persistent than expected," GS adds.

(Adds headline)

• AUD/USD spiked up to 0.6970 overnight, hit a 14-session high, sellers then emerged

• 0.6924 hit in Europe, NY opened near 0.6945, AUD/USD was down -0.06% in early action

• The pair fell despite broad-based USD selling and USD/CNH's drop to 6.7783

• Rising US yields , drops in gold, silver copper, equities weighed on AUD/USD

• Daily RSI diverged on tthe high & daily doji candle formed, are concerns for bulls

• AUD/USD's hold below 0.6980/90 and the 21-DMA are also worries for AUD/USD bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Risk reversal options show any volatility risk premium for strikes in one direction versus the other

• 1-month 25 delta USD/JPY risk reversals paid 1.625 and 3-month at 0.8 JPY calls over puts on Monday

• For 1-month it's the highest downside over upside strike premium in 2-weeks - 1.75 is the 2 July peak since May

• 3-month expiry already a new high since May. Reflects recent spot setback and greater perceived risk of more losses

• Downside risk reversal skew suggests implied volatility should increase when USD/JPY falls

• Implied volatility currently subdued/heavy as spot consolidates last week's setback from 40 year high at 162.84

• Intervention fear has been keeping JPY call skew elevated over recent months, GPIF headlines added weight on Friday

• FX options poised for US CPI - but are they underpricing the risk to FX
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


USD/JPY FX option implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY consolidating, spot pinned to 200-hour MA cluster around 162

• Lack of follow-through above 162.84 cycle high keeps topside momentum in check

• Downside still limited for now, 160.70 remains the key near-term pivot

• GPIF headlines a slow burn but incrementally JPY/JGB supportive - no allocation shift, focus within bands

• Geopolitics keeping oil firm as Iran tensions escalate, which is helping keep USD/JPY bid

• Overall conviction light into Tuesday’s US CPI

• Hot CPI seen reopening 162.84, break would target 163.50 next
USDJPY hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6924 in Asia, as safe-haven USD rose on renewed Iran attacks

• 0.6924 is the lowest level since July 8 (0.6907 was the low that day)

• Friday's high was 0.6969 (in Asia). 0.6965 was NY session high Friday

• CFTC data: net AUD short rose to 24,651 contracts in week to July 7

• Third consecutive week in which the net AUD short position grew

• Net AUD position flipped to short in June (net long hit 13-year high in May)

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds sub-1.34 after safe-haven USD rises on renewed Middle East attacks

• 1.3368-1.3392 is Monday range-to-date. 1.3368 is the lowest level since July 8

• July 8 low was 1.3323, after dollar jumped on Iran guidance from Trump

• Friday range was 1.3392-1.3452 (1.3452 is the highest level since mid-June)

• CFTC data: net GBP short fell 14% to 87,903 contracts in week to July 7

• Net GBP short position hit nine-year high of 105,719 contracts in June

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD lower in response to latest Mid-East escalation and Iran closure of straight of Hormuz, higher oil price

• FX option implied volatility higher in response - 1-month 5.5 from 5.15 Friday (recent/2026 low 4.9)

• Tuesday's US CPI data adds a further layer of FX volatility risk. However, vol gains proving limited so limited

• EUR put over call vol premium via risk reversals reflects greater risk of EUR losses vs gains, but steady since last week

• EUR still in grip of huge 1.1400 strike expiries - another 1.1bln euros Mon, 2.6bln Tues and more Wed-Thurs

• EUR/USD danger zone remains at post 17 June Fed and 1-year lows at 1.1325 and 1.1300 option barriers
EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring July 13-17


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)