• AUD/USD trades with a softer bias after failed topside break at 0.7020-30 resistance zone

• 0.7000 back under pressure, price action still broadly consolidative for now

• Close in focus, daily settle below 0.6992 would signal a bearish key day reversal

• Bearish key day defined as higher high, lower low, and close below prior day low

• A confirmed reversal would shift near-term risks lower towards 0.6950 support

• Further downside opens 0.6910-20 zone, where the 200-day MA cluster sits
AUDUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Aug 3 (Reuters) - USD/JPY has undergone a dramatic technical shift after a sustained uptrend spanning April 2025 through July 2026. The pair reversed sharply in late July, plunging from an intra-month high of 163.99 to close at 157.38 (EBS) — carving out a textbook bearish key reversal month. For technicians, this pattern carries weight: a fresh bull-trend high followed by a close at or below the prior month's low signals exhaustion, particularly after an extended, one-directional advance of this magnitude.

The reversal was accompanied by significant technical damage. USD/JPY has decisively broken below its 50- and 100-day moving averages, while also slicing through the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) — a zone that had previously acted as robust dynamic support. The loss of the Kumo as a floor often marks a genuine regime shift rather than a routine pullback.

• Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has collapsed to 24.37, deep in oversold territory (sub-30). While confirming intense selling pressure, readings this extreme are historically overextended and often precede a corrective bounce or consolidation before further downside.

• The 14-day momentum oscillator sits at -5.445, underscoring high-conviction bearish velocity.

• Price has broken sharply below the lower Bollinger Band, signalling volatility expansion and "band-walking" — typically indicative of a strongly trending market near-term, even as RSI argues for caution on fresh shorts.
Key Levels to Watch: 155.00 — initial support, the May 2026 swing low, then 154.78 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025–July 2026 bull run (139.89–163.99) and 152.28 — support, aligning with the February 2026 low.

The bearish key reversal month, daily moving average/Kumo breakdowns, and Bollinger Band expansion support a structural trend change. However, the extreme RSI reading suggests near-term downside may be vulnerable to a relief rally before the 154.78–152.28 zone is tested. Traders are likely to weigh the reversal signal's strength against the risk of chasing an extended move, with 155.00–154.78 likely the first key battleground.
USD/JPY Monthly Chart:


USD/JPY daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable softer on the session as USD catches a bid, trimming recent gains

• 1.35 resistance holds on first test, upside momentum fading after sharp move from sub-1.33

• Price action consistent with near-term consolidation

• Initial support seen at 1.34 (200-day MA), below that 1.33 is key

• UK jobs survey - advertised wage growth cools to 3.9%, slowest since Feb 2022

• Data leans dovish at the margin, reinforcing BoE “wait-and-see” stance

• Macro backdrop remains headline-driven, geopolitical noise likely to keep FX ranges choppy

• Near-term focus shifts squarely to Friday’s U.S. payrolls as next directional catalyst
GBPUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Aug 3 (Reuters) - ntervention has put USD/JPY on course to eventually retest this year's 152.10 low printed on EBS in January. USD/JPY saw big falls on Thursday and Friday to register a close below the Ichimoku daily cloud, which currently spans the 158.49-160.71 region. That could help with Tokyo's efforts to keep the exchange rate under control. USD/JPY dropped further on Monday, keeping traders on alert for further intervention. Japan and the United States conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention on Friday and will not hesitate to take further action, Japan's finance ministry said on Monday, confirming a rare bilateral action to halt the yen's slide to fresh 40-year lows. That after Japan intervened on Thursday.

The scale of the intervention in recent sessions, threats for more action and sustained trading below the cloud, increase the chances of a durable shift lower in USD/JPY.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Aug 3 (Reuters) - Mitsubishi Corp :

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: IF CURRENT TRENDS IN COPPER AND OIL PRICES AND FOREX RATES CONTINUE, FULL-YEAR EARNINGS COULD EXCEED OUR FORECAST

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: WILL CAREFULLY ASSESS SCOPE FOR RAISING OUR FULL-YEAR EARNINGS FORECAST TOWARD SECOND QUARTER

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: MIDDLE EAST CRISIS HAS HAD A LIMITED IMPACT SO FAR, BUT WE WILL RETAIN 30 BILLION YEN RISK BUFFER FOR FY2026

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: U.S. AETHON IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANNUAL PROFITS OF 50 BILLION-60 BILLION YEN

• MITSUBISHI CORP CFO: AIM TO BOOST COPPER OUTPUT THROUGH EQUITY HOLDINGS TO 400,000 METRIC TONS IN OR AFTER FISCAL 2030, UP FROM 330,000 TONS IN FISCAL 2025
Further company coverage: [8058.T]

• AUD/USD settles just +0.1% Mon after gaining almost 0.7% in early trading

• Broader USD index overcomes fear of ongoing coordinated JPY intervention

• U.S. & JP officially confirm JPY action last week, vow to maintain efforts

• CN Jul RatingDog manufacturing PMI slows to 50.9 (poll 51.5, prior 51.7)

• AUD break back below 0.7025 would elevate reversal risk, 0.6920 possible

• AU Jun & Q2 household spending due Tue (prior +1.3%, +0.7% respectively)

• Range Asia 0.7028-69 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Mon, but well off early 0.7069 high as USD negativity eases

• Anxiety surrounding U.S.-Japan coordinated JPY intervention abates

• Brent crude -4.6% after Trump cancels scheduled Iran attacks, seeks deal

• AUD struggling to maintain elevation above prior 0.7025-35 resistance zone

• Break back below 0.7025 would signal return of downside risk toward 0.6920

• AU Jul S&P manufacturing PMI 52.0 (prior 51.7), Jun household spending Tue

• Range Asia 0.70325-69 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• News of Japan-US joint intervention sends USD/JPY to 157.00 early Asia today

• Some rebound since to 157.87 EBS but upside seen capped for now at 158.00

• Another round of sales noted after rebound, to fresh 156.00 low

• News of joint intervention still being digested, ramifications large

• Reports Japan spent close to $60 bln, the US maybe $5-10 bln

• Joint FX intervention Friday first since 2011 after the Fukushima earthquake

• Talk in market of Japan FX intervention too in EUR/JPY

• USD/JPY now below ascending 200-DMA at 157.97, to help cap market now

• Still ascending daily Ichimoku cloud above between 158.49-160.70

• In option expiries, some on 156, 157, $1.1 bln up at 158.60 strike today

• JGB-US rate differentials saw some narrowing, 2s to 271, 10s to 184 bps

• With BOJ also likely to hike this fall, the yen may have bottomed for now

• Japanese importers will continue to buy large but sales to dominate?

• Exporters more likely to sell large, foreign Japan stock buy hedges off too?

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Oil early Asia , on US-Iran , also

• On Japan-US action , , ,

• And , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB opens little changed despite broad USD fall on JPY intervention

• Japan confirms joint yen intervention with US, signals readiness for more

• USD/THB traded 33.40-33.53 range in NY, last at 33.42

• Supports at 33.30, 33.20, resistance at 33.50, 33.60 intraday

• Lower oil prices and bearish techs likely to add to selling pressure

• Brent crude last -4.57% to $83.91/bbl; WTI -4.71% to $80.70/bbl

• Trump says US will hold off on fresh Iran attack in hope of quick deal

• Eyes on stocks - rally on Wall Street to boost sentiment

• DXY traded 99.65-100.45 range on Friday, last at 99.75
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• USD/KRW opens tad higher Mon at 1438.1, tracking USD/JPY

• Suppressed, with ceiling of downtrend channel 1449.3 to cap spikes

• Another close below 61.8% Fibo 1429.0 will lure more sellers

• USD/JPY bobs up after steep drops to as low as 157.00, last 157.85

• DXY tanked due to joint US-Japan yen intervention

• S. Korea July exports beat forecasts at +62.8% y/y
KRW


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.4% Mon as evidence of ongoing bilateral JPY coordination mounts

• JP government officials pre-empt official confirmation to come later Mon

• Trump says U.S. intervening because of good relationship with JP

• Trump cancels planned Iran attacks subject to being able to reach a deal

• AUD break above 0.7035 may enable topside extension toward 0.7088 resistance

• AU S&P global manufacturing PMI due Mon, Jun/Q2 household spending due Tue

• Range early Asia 0.7035-69 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD net spec G10 long +$5.95bn to +$51.3bn in Jul 22-28 period, $IDX +0.23%

• EUR$ -0.13%; specs -31.1k contracts now -72.4k; EZ inflation, growth outlook opaque

• $JPY +0.4%; specs -11.3k contracts now -163.4k; BoJ on hold, no intervention lifts USD

• Thursday intervention saw extreme yen reversal; US Trsry warned of more selling

• GBP$ -0.65%; specs -9.3k contracts now -64.8k; dovish Fed, hawkish BoE adds to GBP allure

• $CAD +0.01%; specs -1.9k contracts now -176.3k; CAD short likely pared post-dovish Fed

• AUD$ -0.38%; specs -2.3k contracts now -40k; AUD rising in current period amid widening AU-US spreads

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table as of 7-31:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7030 after AUD/USD rallied to 0.7044 in overnight trading

• AUD/USD fell on USD, US yield gains & USD/CNH rally to 6.7550

• Drops in equities, gold, silver added weight; AUD/USD neared the 10-DMA, hit 0.6992

• Buyers emerged as USD selling took hold while stocks, gold, silver moved upward

• USD/CNH pull back from its high and gains for copper helped AUD/USD lift

• AUD/USD rallied and sat above 0.7035 late, it traded up +0.06% in NY's afternoon

• Daily bull hammer, rising RSIs, hold above 10- & 21-DMas are bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

CIBC Research previews the US July jobs report due on next Friday.

US hiring is expected to remain modest in July, albeit slightly stronger than in the prior month. The 75K gain expected in payrolls would be broadly consistent with a labour market seeing little hiring but also little firing as well. Having drifted up a little in the prior month, initial jobless claims fell back again in July," CIBC notes.

"The separate household survey is expected to show a rebound in employment following a prior month decline, but potentially an even larger rebound in the size of the labour force due to increased participation. While the national participation rate will drift down over time due to aging demographics, the prior month’s sharp drop in prime aged participation looked suspiciously large and could partially rebound. Higher participation could see the jobless rate tick up slightly to 4.3%," CIBC adds.

• Cable elicits support pre-1.3400 after drop from 1.3432

• 1.3432 was high after dollar weakened on U.S. Treasury news

• U.S. Treasury informed banks that it may intervene in yen, source says

• 1.3400 is a former resistance level turned support point

• New UK finance minister Healey to unveil his first budget on October 28

• BoE's Pill (hawk) sees risk of 'insidious' build-up of inflation pressures

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research on this week's wave of Japan's MoF intervention.

"The yen surged yesterday with USD/JPY dropping around 5 big figures from 163.00 to 158.00 before then rebounding. The initial move didn’t catch the eye on a day when the US dollar was weakening more generally but it quickly became clear that this was likely action from the MoF. The scale of the intra-day move following this probable action was similar to moves in previous episodes of intervention. The timing is also similar, at month-end, and will fall into the period in which confirmation will not be published until the end of August," MUFG notes.

"The MoF often acts on a second occasion when intervening and hence there will likely be some reluctance in the market to buy USD/JPY now but there is a risk that buyers will soon return given the lack of conviction from the BoJ on the potential necessity for upping the pace of monetary tightening," MUFG adds.

• USD/CHF rises to 0.8122 EBS intra-day high as month-end looms

• 0.80895 was low at 1324 GMT, as dollar weakened on U.S. Treasury news

• U.S. Treasury informed banks that it may intervene in yen, source says

• 0.8056 was EBS European morning low for USD/CHF, as USD/JPY fell sharply

• 0.80395 was EBS two-week low on Thursday, as USD/JPY tanked

• Japan may have sold up to $59 billion in yen-buying FX intervention Thursday

• SNB made a profit of 39.9 billion francs on its currency positions in Q2

• Swiss July inflation data due on Monday, at 0630 GMT; CPI 0.5% YY in June

USDCHF


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research on GBP outlook for the coming week.

"The key question is whether this GBP rally can be sustained next week. The UK calendar is relatively light, with the final PMI releases the only notable domestic data. As a result, GBP/USD is likely to be driven primarily by the USD and any shifts in Fed expectations. From a rates perspective, policy divergence remains limited.

"As such, if next week's US data fail to reinforce the case for further Fed tightening, GBP/USD should be able to maintain its recent gains. Overall, we retain a mildly positive bias on GBP/USD. We see initial resistance at 1.349, with a break above opening the way towards 1.352. Support is seen at 1.333," ANZ adds.

Bank of America Global Research of the this week's wave of MoF's yen intervention.

"We think this attempt could possibly be more effective than previous episodes earlier in the year. 

First, the move comes on the heels of aforementioned USD weakness, which is a notable change from conditions where USDJPY reached fresh highs on broad USD strength. Thus, they are in a place now to blow with- rather than against-the wind.

Second, the yen has clearly lagged the recent appreciation of the KRW (on equity hedging flows). This leaves room for catch-up for similar reasons, should Japan specific policy concerns moderate," BofA notes.

"Third, broader yen sentiment remains subdued, and the market is still positioned short, opening the door for a position-squeeze.

Finally, should the move extend further, we think Japanese exporters could become incentivized to sell USDJPY, should the pair approach the ¥155 level (~¥159 at the time of writing). This could provide fresh downside pressure, or serve to offset potential buying pressure," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD fell to 0.7020 in Asia on USD buying then rallied in Europe's morning

• USD selling drove the pair up to 0.7044, pair hit a fresh 1-1/2-month high

• AUD/USD fell again as USD buying took hold again & yields

rallied

• USD/CNH rally into positive territory, drops in gold and silver added weight on AUD/USD

• AUD/USD dipped below 0.7030 in NY's open, the pair traded near flat

• Daily inverted hammer formed, daily RSI didn't confirm the high, are worries for bulls

• US July University of Michigan survey is a data risk in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Given their forward-looking nature and sensitivity to volatility, price action in FX options can offer clues about market expectations — but EUR/USD traders shouldn't get too excited about a pick-up in momentum following this week's spot recovery from 1.1400 to 1.1500+. The FX volatility upon which FX options thrive is unknown, so dealers use implied volatility as a proxy. Implied volatility has been trading at long-term lows across the board - reflecting the lack of FX realised volatility in markets of late, despite the Middle East war and higher oil prices raising inflation concerns. EUR/USD has been no exception, its implied volatility trading at 2026 lows and not far from multi-year lows. USD/JPY intervention spillover lent some mild support to shorter-dated expiries, with 1-month implied volatility briefly back up at 5.2 from 4.85 on Thursday, but it's already back below 5.0 as spot is drawn to a huge 1.1500 expiry.

Risk-reversal options have been trading with a premium for EUR puts over calls since the June Fed decision (downside over upside strikes). The benchmark 1-month expiry 25 delta risk reversals reached new post-April highs at 0.8 ahead of Wednesday's U.S. Fed rate decision as traders hedged the risk of an early hike and subsequent USD gains. That premium has since fallen back to 0.3 as those downside hedges are unwound en masse after the Fed held steady. However, there hasn't been too much interest to cover the risk of an extended USD rise with outright EUR call/USD put options so far.

EUR/USD has been in a 1.1622-1.1325 range since April and the latest price action in FX options isn't giving any cause for concern about those parameters breaking as the traditional summer lull rolls on.
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

• Gold continues to trade with a heavy tone, with rebounds still lacking any real follow-through

• That is notable given the recent recovery in risk assets and the softer USD backdrop

• If gold cannot extend gains even when the broader setup should be supportive, bulls should be wary

• Gold has been stuck in a well-defined $3960-4200 range over the past month, leaving $3960 as pivotal support

• A break below support would open up $3887 initially. Below there, attention would turn to the 100-week MA ($3658)
gold vs usd and spx


Gold daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

July 31 (Reuters) - USD/JPY's failure to sustain losses through a pivotal technical level will likely complicate Japanese authorities' attempts to hold the exchange rate in check. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Friday but warned for the first time that underlying inflation could exceed its target, signalling further rate hikes in the wake of the government's yen-buying intervention on Thursday. Despite this, the yen has surrendered some gains brought by intervention.

While the hawkish shift at the BOJ can give yen-buying intervention an extra bite, USD/JPY's failure to close below the Ichimoku daily cloud which currently spans the 158.48-160.67 region on Thursday hints at a potential base.

When a market breaks below a technical level but subsequently reverses, that is usually considered a bear trap and is usually a bullish sign.

More direct intervention is needed to sustain USD/JPY trading below the daily cloud, something that is needed to keep the trajectory of the currency pair on the downside.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• 1.3441 is low water-mark for cable since Thursday's jump to 1.3475

• Jump to 1.3475 was spurred by coordinated FX intervention

• GBP/USD was sub-1.34 before Japan, South Korea reportedly sold dollars

• 1.3475 is the highest level since July 20 (1.3481 was the high that day)

• Traders trimmed hike bets after relatively dovish BoE guidance Thursday

• 1.3368 was post-BoE low Thursday (1.3334-1.3405 was pre-BoE range)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)