• USD/JPY buoyant as yen long grew big before BOJ's dovish hike, but intervention threat persists

• Reported "rate checks" helped a large upper shadow to be formed on Friday's USD/JPY candle

• Spot failed to sustain Friday's break above 157.53 Fibo, 61.8% retrace of 160.39-152.89 (Sept) fall

• However, the continued trading above the 156.64 level keeps the technical bias on the upside

• 156.64 level is a 50% retrace of the same 160.39-152.89 (EBS) drop

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD traded a rough 1.15-20 range for first half of 2026

• The pair appears to have slipped into a lower range

• Mid-point of the developing range could be around 1.1550

• July low 1.1325, August peak 1.1711, Sep range 1.1455-1.1654

• Current drop stretched below 1.1500 base 20-day Bollingers

• Volatility is very low which suggests little movement ahead

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 12 pip range thus far Monday; 0.7118-0.7130

• Those parameters are within Friday's 0.7104-0.7136 range

• 0.7136 is high water-mark since Wednesday's four-week low of 0.7075

• Wednesday's low, which 100DMA helped define, was plumbed on Fed's hawkish hike

• RBA's Bullock, Hunter and Ross are all due to speak on Tuesday

• Australia's Big Four banks all expect RBA to raise rates next week (Sept 29)

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(removes link in 2nd bullet)

• Cable has traded a 19.5 pip range thus far Monday; 1.33735-1.3393

• 1.3393 is 4.5 pips shy of Friday's peak (1.33375 was Friday's low)

• Friday's peak was scaled as USD/JPY retreated on FX news

• Nikkei reported Japan conducted rate checks in the FX market

• Friday's GBP/USD low was half-a-pip above Thursday's seven-week low

• Thursday's low was plumbed after BoE rate hold/QT pause news

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Monday September 21

• EUR/USD: 1.1420-25 (350M), 1.1450-55 (457M), 1.1470-80 (1.8BLN), 1.1500 (552M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8150-60 (600M), 0.8185 (160M), 0.8300 (543M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3350-55 (222M), 1.3390 (154M), 1.3445-50 (186M). EUR/GBP: 0.8550 (332M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7100-15 (434M). NZD/USD: 0.5700 (375M), 0.5745-50 (301M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4000 (387M), 1.4050-60 (504M)

• USD/JPY: 155.50 (900M), 156.00 (720M), 157.00 (2.5BLN), 157.50 (301M), 158.00 (265M)

• AUD/JPY: 110.00 (280M). EUR/JPY: 179.75 (230M)

• Friday's FX options wrap - Vol drought grips G10 FX - JPY intervention risk returns (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY steady in Asia after trading in a narrow 156.58-157.11 range

• Opened 156.83, rallied on weekend news of Houthi strikes on Riyadh

• Failed to sustain gains as oil fell 2.3% on hopes of US-Iran talks

• Trump says he may meet Iran's president at UN assembly

• Investors relieved as Saudi Aramco ramps up exports via Hormuz Strait

• USD slides to 156.58 before demand surfaces, recovery to 156.94 ensues

• Downside limited as Fed seen as more hawkish on policy than BOJ

• Fed's Kashkari says inflation is still too high in 'all aspects' of economy

• Threat of Japanese intervention in thin markets likely to cap rallies

• Support 156.50-60, 156.00-10, resistance 157.50, 158.00-10;

• Japanese markets closed Monday through Wedensday
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat Mon as three-day JP market holiday period begins

• WTI -2.2% despite Houthi attacks on Riyadh & fresh U.S.-Iran threats

• Investors put faith in Saudi capacity to restore exports quickly

• RBA's Hunter, Bullock & Monetary Policy Board member Ross all speaking Tue

• Futures pricing implies 95.8% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Sep 29

• AUD likely to consolidate between 0.7078 100-DMA & 0.7165 21-DMA pre-RBA

• Range Asia 0.7118-295 support 0.7078 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY -0.1% in quiet holiday-thinned trading; Japanese markets off Mon-Wed

• Weighed down by lower oil prices; US crude -1% in Asia after 1.6% Fri drop

• Downside limited as Fed seen as more hawkish on policy than BOJ

• BOJ 25bps Fri hike seen as relatively modest; dissents disappoint investors

• Fed's Kashkari says inflation is still too high in 'all aspects' of economy

• Threat of Japanese intervention in thin markets likely to cap rallies

• Support 156.50-60, 156.00-10, resistance 157.50, 158.00-10, 158.60-65

• Asia range 156.68-157.11
G7 inflation:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.1% early Mon, down a cumulative 4.5% from Aug 21 0.5988 high

• Break below 0.5700-05 support zone will trigger slide toward 0.5627 ytd low

• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman scheduled to provide economic update Tue

• 3-day run of JP holidays to impact liquidity in Asia this week

• U.S. & Iran trade fresh threats as Houthis attack Saudi capital Riyadh

• U.S. President Trump to meet CN leader Xi Jinping in Washington this week

• Range NZ 0.57195-24, support 0.5700-05 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD flat Mon, activity subdued ahead of three-day JP holiday period

• U.S. & Iran trade fresh threats as Houthis attack Saudi capital Riyadh

• Brent crude drifts to $103.73 a barrel after early Mon spike

• U.S. President Trump to meet CN leader Xi Jinping in Washington this week

• EUR looking to extend run of moderately positive closes post-Fed hike

• Break above 1.1500 likely to spur mean reversion toward 1.1527 55-DMA

• EU Sep consumer confidence due Wed, Reuters poll consensus -16.5

• Range Asia 1.1479-94, support 1.1353 1.1325, resistance 1.1710 1.1850
EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% from Fri 0.7104 low, investors pondering AU's sticky inflation

• Futures pricing implies quarter-percent RBA hike Sep 29 now near certain

• RBA's Hunter, Bullock & Monetary Policy Board member Ross all speaking Tue

• Houthis strike Riyadh as U.S. & Iran trade threats of fresh hostilities

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping scheduled to meet Trump in Washington this week

• AUD 18-month uptrend intact for now, but risk of downside break growing

• Range Asia 0.7118-225 support 0.7078 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD net G10 IMM spec long cut dramatically, -$13.8bn, in the Sept 9-15 period; $IDX +0.86%

• USD under significant pressure pre-Fed; hawkish Fed shift likely to spur USD bid in current period

• EUR$ -0.71% in period, specs +15.6k contracts now -27k; hawkish ECB prods EUR buying

• $JPY +0.76%, specs +109.6k contracts now +120.3k; MoF intervention stirs yen bid

• GBP$ -0.48%, specs +121 contracts now -58.7k; less-hawkish BoE, fiscal concerns weigh

• $CAD +0.92%, specs 32.9k contracts now -37.6k; Fed-BoC rate convergence sees CAD shorts unwind

• AUD$ -1.3%, specs -4.04k contracts now -38.9k; Oil price rise cuts global growth view, weighs on oz

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table as of 9-15:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trade, +0.26% at 1.3391; Friday range 1.3394-1.3338

• Early slide to 7-week low by 1.3377 reversed amid talk of JP MoF checking rates

• Cable had been under pressure after Fed hike/BoE hold this week

• STIR futures now show near 60% odds for Fed and BoE hikes in Oct/Nov

• LSEG's IRPR indicates BoE more hawkish in 2027; BoE +101bp, Fed +77 by Dec 2027

• UK fiscal concern heightened ahead of October's UK Autumn Budget; 10-yr gilt at 5.3%

• GBP$ res 1.3394 Friday high, 1.3429 falling 100-HMA, 1.3452 50% Fib of 1.3567-1.3337

• Supt 1.3337 daily low Sept 17, 1.3290 weekly cloud base, 1.3274 daily low Jul 28

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook in light of this week's September BoJ meeting.

"We see scope over the near-term for the US dollar to advance further versus the yen. The reaction today to the BoJ communications and Governor Ueda’s press conference highlighted the fact that current market pricing may have become excessive. The bar was low for the BoJ delivering a less hawkish message,"MUFG notes.

"Is the BoJ moving faster now? Governor Ueda hinted that might be the case but not enough to convince the markets. We expect the next hike in January 2027 and then in June, taking the policy rate to 1.75%. Near-term USD/JPY could advance further but the rates curve is reasonably priced and further hikes and intervention risks will curtail the scope for the move higher in USD/JPY. We would still expect USD/JPY buying to fade ahead of a break above the 160.00-level," MUFG adds.

• Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies jump as bitcoin and ethereum rally

• Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, jump 5.7% to $80,941.54; ether leaps 5.9% to $2,594.32

• Crypto mkt value rose despite Fed, BoJ rate hikes — suggesting they were priced in, says Alice Liu, head of research, CoinMarketCap

• "More important question now is how higher funding costs affect positioning" - Liu

• USD gains against the yen on Friday the BOJ rate hike, but investors doubtful of further increases [FRX/]

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global jumps 11.2%, while bitcoin bull Strategy soars ~12.9%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets gains 7.8%

• Crypto miners Riot Platforms Inc MARA Holdings , Hut 8 and Bit Digital ahead 3%-10% each

• BTC buyer Strategy leaps 12.12%

• BTC mining machine makers Ebang International and Canaan Inc climb 7.8% and 20%, respectively

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF adds 5.9%; iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rises 6%

• YTD, including session, BTC down 7.6% , ETH down 7.7%

(Reporting by Darshan Kumar in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses its latest Gold's outlook and targets.

"We maintain our $5,400/toz end-2027 forecast despite September's Fed hike and our economists now expecting an additional hike in October. While higher rates should continue to weigh on gold prices through ETF demand in the near term, our economists expect the Fed to deliver three cuts between September 2027 and March 2028, leaving the terminal forecast unchanged at 3.25-3.5%," GS notes.

"We continue to expect gold prices to grind higher in the near term and now estimate year-end fair value at $4,650/toz (below our previous $4,900/toz forecast but above the current spot price of ~$4,350/toz), as much of the expected tightening already appears priced into ETF demand, stronger-than-expected central bank purchases continue to offset the remaining drag from higher rates, and call-option demand for gold as a macro-policy hedge has proven resilient," GS adds.

• USD/CHF is sustaining its break above the 100-week moving average, encouraging signs for bulls

• U.S. yields are edging higher again, with the benchmark 10-year testing 5%

• Assuming volatility remains contained, this should continue to support USD/CHF from a carry perspective

• Near-term technical setup remains constructive, with the path of least resistance pointing towards 0.8350-0.8375

• Key support levels remain unchanged at 0.8173-0.8200
USDCHF daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research previews the September SNB meeting (due on next Thursday).

"We expect the SNB to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0% next week. We also expect the reference to FX interventions in the policy statement to remain unchanged, signalling an "increased readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets." Although appreciation pressures on the Swiss franc have eased somewhat over the summer, with the CHF down 3.3% YTD in real effective terms, we do not anticipate a return to the pre-March wording (namely a "willingness to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary"). Our base case remains that the SNB stays on hold until 2028, in contrast to market pricing," BofA notes.

"Overall, next week's communication should reinforce the SNB's determination to preserve full optionality and retain all policy instruments at its disposal," BofA adds.

ANZ Research discusses NZD/USD outlook for the coming week.

"Technically, the NZD/USD maintains a starkly bearish momentum that is looking to extend into the week ahead.

The pair is trading well below its 20-, 50-, and 200-dmas. We view the pair as highly undervalued on a medium-term basis, though further downside is possible in the short term," ANZ notes.

"With the lack of fundamental macro drivers in the week ahead, we are slightly negative on the NZD/USD, with key support near 0.5626 (26 June low)," ANZ adds.

• 0.7110-0.7136 traded overnight, NY opened near 0.7130, up +0.24%

• RBA governor Bullock's inflation rhetoric upped probability for a hike

• The comments buoyed the aussie as did gold, silver, stock rallies

• USD/CNH drop to 6.6935, US 10-yr yield drop from its high also buoyed

• Daily RSI is rising but pair below Sep. 16 high & still within that days range

• US Aug. industrial prod., comments from Fed's Bowman, Schmid are risks today
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• BOJ 'dovish hike' boosts USD/JPY, pressures Japan, scope for the 160 level

• USD/JPY soared above 156.64 and 157.53 tech levels, a close above would be bullish

• 156.64 and 157.53 are 50% and 61.8% retraces of 160.39-152.89 (Sept) fall

• Spot has climbed from 155.88 to 158.06, on Friday, EBS data shows

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

• Fin Min Katayama: it is important to maintain order regarding exchange rates, interest rates

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Huge €3-billion 1.1500 fx option strike expiry at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT Friday - more strikes surround

• Related hedging flows can help draw/contain FX. DTCC traded options data shows plenty more at 1.1500 next week

• EUR/USD hit low since late July at 1.1456 post Fed and consolidates higher - 1.1475-92 (EBS) Friday

• Daily cloud now above spot to provide tech resistance but EUR/USD appears to lack downside impetus

• FX option implied volatility at long term lows with a very small downside over topside strike premium

• Price action consistent with ongoing low volatility within longer term range, with a mild downside lean
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


EUR/USD FX option strike expiries Sept 18-25

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY FX option implied volatility hit hard after BoJ press conference couldn't offset dovish hike disappointment

• FX options had been primed for excessive FX volatility which inflated short dated expiry implied volatility pre BoJ

• Funds were said to have been holding downside strike options looking for hawkish BoJ outcome

• Those options now being unwound and are fuelling the broader implied volatility sell-off

• 1-week USD/JPY implied vol hit 10.5-9.0 so far and the benchmark 1-month from 9.0 to 8.5

• Topside hedges still in play - 160.00 bought earlier this week and more since BoJ

• Intervention risk will increase if USD/JPY continues to unwind the early Sep drop from 160.00 to 153.001-week and 1-month expiry USD/JPY FXO implied volatility Click here

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD rose to 0.7136 in Asia, its highest level since Wednesday

• Ascent influenced by hawkish shift in RBA expectations on Bullock

• RBA chief Bullock warns inflation risks materializing

• Markets now see 95% chance of RBA rate hike to 4.6% on Sept 29

• Wednesday high was 0.7141 - before drop to 0.7075 on Fed's hawkish hike

• 0.7075 was four-week low, which the 100-day moving average helped define

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)