• NY opened near 1.1525 after 1.1518 traded overnight, sharp rally ensued

• USD, US yields dropped quickly after US July payroll data

• Gold, silver, stocks rallied & USD/CNH fell to 6.7400 to reinforce broad USD selling

• EUR/USD ended ins recent consolidation phase, hit a 1-1/2-month high of 1.1581

• The pair pulled back a bit, sat near 1.1565 late, traded up +0.34% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising and EUR/USD trades above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Investors will be focused on US July CPI and PPI due next week
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo in line 2)

• NY opened near 0.7035 after 0.7023 traded overnight, rally extended in NY

• US July payroll report surprise sent the USD, US yields

lower

• Gold, silver added to gains, stocks rallied & USD/CNH fell to 6.7400

• AUD/USD spiked up, pierced the 50% Fib of the 0.7277-0.6877 price drop

• A 1-1/2- month high of 0.7078 traded, pair neared 0.7665 late, was up +0.52%

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs indicate upward momentum, pair above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• August's monthly bull hammer candle reinforces the bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses the scope for Japan' MoF to intervene to cap USD/JPY using the Fed’s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility without dumping U.S. Treasuries.

"We believe the FIMA facility can be a helpful way to avoid the funding and spread pressures associated with large, sudden sales of US Treasuries. If the Treasury recognizes that Japan would like to continue intervention to ensure credible Yen strength and wants to prevent a destabilizing force in the market, the FIMA facility can smooth the impact on the market. Crucially though, while using FIMA buys time, it does not prevent Japan's sales of US Treasuries. Eventually, the MoF will have to sell Treasuries and/or let enough securities roll off its balance sheet to fund the intervention," GS notes.

"We do not see Secretary Bessent's request that the MoF intervene using FIMA as an attempt to prevent Japan or other reserve managers from selling Treasuries. It is primarily a way to smooth the potential impacts from large-scale FX intervention, which could have disruptive effects on the Treasury market,' GS adds.

USD/JPY's rebound from its post-payrolls lows suggests bulls have not yet given up on the pair.

The pair plunged in two waves after a much weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and intervention-related comments from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, while prior-month figures were revised sharply lower, weighing on the dollar as expectations for further Fed tightening receded. Soon after the U.S. data, Finance Minister Katayama said in an interview that Tokyo and Washington agree the yen has been distorted by speculative carry trades and they would not hesitate to intervene again if necessary.

The timing of the interview is notable. While it coincided with the release of the weak U.S. jobs data, the comments may have been aimed at pushing back against USD/JPY's post-intervention rebound from 155.20 to above 158.00, as well as recent reports that the ECB was informed only after the U.S. carried out last week's dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention.

Nonetheless, one of the drivers behind the carry trade, strong risk appetite, appears to be helping USD/JPY rebound from its 156.68 low. Equities remain higher and U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has recovered part of its post-payrolls decline after the Fed's Thomas Barkin stressed the need to return inflation to 2% and downplayed the significance of the jobs report. As a result, next week's CPI data may prove more important for shaping Fed expectations.

USD/JPY has climbed back above 157.00 and is once again targeting the key 158.00 pivot and nearby 200-day moving average. A break above 158.56, the 38.2% retracement of the 163.99 to 155.20 decline, would bring the cloud base near 158.92 into focus and likely renew concerns among Japanese officials.

For bears, the break below the recent series of higher lows is encouraging, leaving scope for a more negative outlook if the pair closes below 157.00.
Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research previews next week's August RBA meeting.

"AUD OIS is pricing almost no chance of a 25bp move at next week’s RBA meeting, with around 10bp of tightening priced by November and 15bp by mid-2027. A hawkish hold is unlikely to shift pricing materially, as markets will need the next few monthly CPI prints and the Q3 CPI release in October before reassessing the policy path. The main source of surprise could be the vote split, particularly any dissent in favour of a hike, which could add modestly to hawkish pricing," BofA notes.

Given current expectations are so low, an unexpected hike would likely push AUD/USD well above 0.71– 0.7125 and establish a higher trading range, although this is not our base case. AUD/NZD touched a high of 1.20 this week, with key support around 1.19. The move was supported by a softer New Zealand unemployment print, which suggests downside is limited for now. A more hawkish-than-expected RBA next week could see the cross test near-term resistance at 1.2030–1.2060, with a break above that opening the way toward 1.21," BofA adds.

EUR/USD bulls received an important boost on Friday, although further confirmation is still needed before the pair can extend meaningfully higher. The catalyst was the U.S. July payrolls report, which suggested labor market conditions softened compared to earlier in the year. Nonfarm payrolls came in at -23,000 versus expectations of +80,000, while June's figure was revised sharply lower to 20,000 from an initially reported 50,000. Average hourly earnings also disappointed on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 61.4% from June's 61.5%.

This weaker data triggered a sharp selloff in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, as traders scaled back expectations for a September Fed rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability for a 25 bps hike fell to 45% from 55% the previous day. The dollar's yield advantage over the euro narrowed, though only modestly, with U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads tightening. Together, these developments pushed EUR/USD out of its recent consolidation range and up to a near two-month high.

However, even with this bullish backdrop, EUR/USD bulls appear reluctant to fully commit ahead of next week's U.S. CPI and PPI reports, which will provide fresh insight into inflation trends. With U.S. inflation breakevens and inflation-linked swap rates already trending lower, a below-consensus CPI/PPI print could validate market pricing and lead to further reductions in Fed tightening expectations. Such an outcome would likely pressure the dollar and yields further, potentially extending EUR/USD's rally off its July lows.
eurusd


deus


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

CIBC Research reviews the US labor report for the month of July.

"July US labor market data were on balance a disappointment, notwithstanding an even lower unemployment rate. The downtick to a tight 4.1% jobless rate came despite an 87K drop in household survey employment, as the participation rate continued to decline, having already seen a a notable weakening in the prior month. Payrolls dropped 23K against consensus expectations for an 80K gain, and the miss will look even larger due to a combined 103K downward revision to the prior two months. The results for July looked somewhat better for the private sector, seeing net hiring of 30K," CIBC notes.

"The weakness showed up in government, hospitality and retailing. Hourly earnings gains were light, rising 2 cents on the month. This is still a tight labour market that’s essentially at full employment, but the lacklustre job numbers, and the weakness in labor force participation, are signposts of an underlying fragility that could allow the Fed to continue to sit on the sidelines," CIBC adds.

CIBC Research reviews today's Canadian jobs report for the month of July.

"Brisk hiring in July saw the unemployment rate tick lower again, despite a slight improvement in labour force participation. The 75K increase in employment was well above consensus forecasts (20K), with the unemployment rate of 6.4% the lowest in 2 years. Job growth was pretty evenly split between full and part time roles, and by sector was led by wholesale & retail, finance, professional services and construction. The unemployment rate edged down further for core aged (25-54) and young workers (aged 15-24), with this summer's student job market stronger than those see in the prior two years. That appears to have led to an upturn in participation for young people as well, which had been very low at the start of the year. Wage growth for permanent employees eased a little more than expected to 3.0%, from 3.7%," CIBC notes.

"Overall, this is clearly a strong report, although at 6.4% the unemployment rate is still higher than where we see full employment, and not yet at a level that will fuel domestically-driven inflation. As a result we continue to see the Bank of Canada remaining on hold this year and into the start of 2027," CIBC adds.

(Repeats with no changes)

Aug 7 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday 7 August

• EUR/USD: 1.1395-05 (1.1BLN), 1.1425-30 (787M), 1.1440-50 (562M)

• 1.1470-80 (500M), 1.1495-00 (1.3BLN), 1.1525-30 (337M)

• 1.1540-45 (327M), 1.1570-80 (555M), 1.1600-05 (1.7BLN)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (657M), 157.50 (295M), 158.00 (765M)

• 158.25-35 (261M), 158.50 (362M), 159.00 (557M), 159.25-30 (620M)

• 159.50 (635M), 159.70-75 (504M), 159.96-00 (739M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Enough uncertainty to keep ranges tight and direction limited into the w/e

• AUD/USD holding a 0.11% bid early Friday following Thursday weakness

• Levels to watch: 0.7015, 10-DMA, and 0.7052, 100-DMA

• Week's range 0.6984-0.7069: bias bullish for 0.7088 June 15 high

• Weekly long lower candle shadows are bullish: doji candles hint at indecision

• U.S. Jul non-farm payrolls (poll +80k) and unemployment (poll 4.2%) due Friday

• Middle East stability looks at risk, Brent extends gains 1.1% in Asia

• Focus turning toward next week's RBA meeting, dialogue will be critical
AUD/USD Daily Chart:


AUD/USD weekly chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Gold up from $3959/oz on Jul 17 to $4316/oz Aug 7

• USD/THB dropping 33.86-33.06 Jul 23-Aug 6

• Bearish break below 55-DMA at 33.15

• USD/THB has broken below daily cloud top at 33.09

• Traders are still betting that the baht drops

• Mexico's peso may also benefit from gold's rise

•
USDTHB


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Aug 7 (Reuters) - FX traders should be aware that EUR/JPY usually falls in August, and this could occur again in 2026.

EUR/JPY has closed down in August in 18 of the last 26 years, or 69% of the time, including in 2024 and 2025. However, seasonality needs to be combined with other factors for it to be a useful tool. The scale of the recent intervention and the risk of further action should keep the EUR/JPY bias on the downside for now.

EUR/JPY has made recovery attempts after the recent intervention-driven slump, registering a close on Wednesday at 182.49 — a Fibo 38.2% retrace of the 187.43 to 179.44 (EBS) drop. However, the 14-day momentum reading remains negative, highlighting the underlying bearish market structure. Note USD/JPY usually also drops in August, seasonal trends show. The 30- and 60-day log correlation coefficients between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are both above +0.50, meaning the two currency pairs will likely weaken in tandem.
Daily Chart


Seasonality Chart


Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• The 21-DMA has risen above 100/200-DMAs - bullish

• GBP/USD up 1.3275-1.3505 after 21-DMA rose over 55-DMA

• Event risk - US payrolls - stemming reaction to recent signals

• GBP/USD 1.3447-55 Friday after 1.3448-79 Thursday

• GBP short positions ($5bln) heighten upside risk

•
GBPUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday 7 August

• EUR/USD: 1.1395-05 (1.1BLN), 1.1425-30 (787M), 1.1440-50 (562M)

• 1.1470-80 (500M), 1.1495-00 (1.3BLN), 1.1525-30 (337M)

• 1.1540-45 (327M), 1.1570-80 (555M), 1.1600-05 (1.7BLN)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (657M), 157.50 (295M), 158.00 (765M)

• 158.25-35 (261M), 158.50 (362M), 159.00 (557M), 159.25-30 (620M)

• 159.50 (635M), 159.70-75 (504M), 159.96-00 (739M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY holding on 158 into US NFP/jobs report, Asia 158.21-57 EBS

• Tracks away some from 158.55 high overnight however

• Weak US jobs report could see USD off, US-Iran stalemate however

• USD/JPY holding under 158.92-161.28 daily Ichi cloud, above 158.07 200-DMA

• In area of 158.39 hourly Ichi tenkan, kijun 158.08 below, cloud 157.58-64

• $765 mln option expiries today at 158.00 supportive too, 158.25-50 $623 mln

• Total $3.1 bln between 159.00-160.00 to help cap on any further rallies

• Threat of more solo/joint FX intervention too though expectations fading

• EUR/JPY better bid, Asia 182.48-68 EBS, best since intervention last week

• Above 182.47 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, kijun 182.30, cloud 181.12-83

• GBP/JPY buoyant, 212.78-213.25 but daily Ichimoku cloud 213.50-214.22 above

• Support from 212.74 hourly Ichimoku kijun, ascending 200-DMA at 211.86

• AUD/JPY 111.14-46, resistance at 111.50 high yesterday

• 110.69-111.16 hourly Ichimoku cloud cushion of sorts, supportive

• NZD/JPY 92.80-93.04, 93.07 high yesterday resistance, 100-DMA 93.14 above

• 82.50-93.21 daily cloud to cushion any falls, 92.63-72 hourly cloud too

• CHF/JPY outlier and tad heavy, 194.67-195.10, down from 195.60 yesterday

• At base of 194.23-82 hourly Ichimoku cloud, 100-HMA 194.63 below

• Japan data on April-May intervention, household spending taken in stride

• News too Japan weighs greater investment flexibility for GPIF

• Changes to GPIF, other Japanese institution investments seen yen supportive

• Also news Japan weighing changes to proprietary trading cap

• Related comment , also , on Japan data
USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential - hourly:


Nikkei 225 hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 2.7% to their highest level since June 18

• Sub-index headed for best week since November 2022, if 15.9% gain holds

• Gold on course for best week since January helped by weaker oil prices [GOL/]

• Australia's top gold miner Northern Star Resources

up 1.6%, Evolution Mining up 1.5%

• YTD, sub-index down 4.5%

(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Austral Resources Australia rise as much as 10.3% to A$0.075, biggest intraday pct gain since May 13

• Stock touches its highest level since June 24

• Stock on course for a fourth consecutive session of gains, if current trend holds

• Austral says QIC Queensland Critical Minerals Fund (QCMF) invests A$15 million ($10.54 million) in the copper-cathode producer

• Says funding to support expansion of company's Rocklands processing facility, its flagship copper mine

• YTD, stock up 26.3%, including day's moves

($1 = 1.4231 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD flat Fri, markets cautious ahead of key U.S. employment data update

• U.S. Jul non-farm payrolls (poll +80k) and unemployment (poll 4.2%) due Fri

• Doubt builds on Middle East peace deal, Brent crude back above $80 a barrel

• Iran considers ban for U.S. & Israeli vessels in Strait of Hormuz

• Houthis claiming 'large-scale' ballistic missile & drone attacks in Yemen

• AUD struggling to extend recent upswing, risks break below 0.7014 55-DMA

• Range Asia 0.7025-332 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up leg on crude oil price rise on Iran uncertainty, broad USD gains

• Could be wrong move depending on US payrolls/jobs report, USD lower if weak?

• Expectations currently for NFP +80K, unemployment at 4.2%

• USD/JPY 158.39-49 EBS in Asia so far after 157.57 to 158.55 rally yesterday

• Interesting that move up on to 158 handle took place after Tokyo close

• Nervousness still over possible Japan FX intervention but fading a bit

• USD/JPY back above 200-DMA at 158.07, towards 158.92-161.28 daily Ichi cloud

• Now well above 157.40-60 hourly Ichi cloud, near 158.39 tenkan, kijun 158.06

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials at recent narrows, in 2s around 263 bps

• Option expiries today 158.00 $765 mln, 158.25-50 $623 mln, 159.00 $557 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan April-May FX action , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.3% from Thur 0.58845 high as oil spikes amid Middle East concerns

• Houthis claiming 'large-scale' ballistic missile & drone attacks in Yemen

• Iran considers Strait of Hormuz ban for U.S. & Iran ships; WTI +4.0%

• Market turns focus to U.S. Jul non-farm payrolls due Fri (poll +80k)

• NZD in danger of 0.5850 break, stop-loss selling below may amplify move

• Range NZ 0.58679-725, support 0.5850 0.5627, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US July jobs report due on Friday.

"We expect a 75k increase in payrolls in July. We expect a small further boost from World Cup hiring, which only began to unwind after the July reference period. On the negative side, payrolls have missed consensus expectations in July in recent years, and there have also been large negative revisions to job growth for prior months," GS notes.

"We expect the unemployment rate to rebound 0.1pp to 4.3%, in part because of modest upward pressure from compositional effects related to the reversal of June’s large decline in participation. We forecast a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, reflecting neutral calendar effects. Wage growth appears to have stabilized in the mid-3s, where our wage tracker and wage survey leading indicator have roughly converged," GS adds.

MUFG Research discusses the latest wave of yen buying intervention.

" The OTC FX margin retail positioning data for June ahead of the intervention revealed a swing from yen shorts against all currencies reported combined to yen long. The yen long position was the largest since October 2023. The primary currency pair explaining this shift on a combined basis was in fact USD/JPY. The USD/JPY short position increased in June to a record total. The implied short USD/JPY position was USD 17.65bn which as can be seen historically is an extreme position and by some distance a record. The position is larger than the probable total size of the intervention undertaken last week," MUFG notes.

"It would imply that USD/JPY grinding higher throughout June incentivised retail margin traders to build USD/JPY short positions further in anticipation of eventual intervention. The May position was also short but considerably smaller. We can also assume that following intervention Japanese retail traders were quick to liquidate and were likely active buyers given the historic short position that was in place.

So Japan’s retail sector was likely a key buyer of USD/JPY on the decline during intervention, curtailing some of the impact of the MoF’s record yen buying intervention," MUFG adds.

• AUD/USD -0.4% from Thur 0.7060 high as Middle East peace hopes begin to fade

• Iran's parliament reviewing bill that bans U.S. & Israel vessels from Hormuz

• Houthis stepping up attacks against in Yemen; Brent crude +4.5%

• U.S. initial jobless claims 199k (poll 202k), Jul NFP due Fri (poll +80k)

• AUD 0.7088 resistance looks safe for now, drift toward 0.7014 55-DMA likely

• Overnight range 0.7023-445 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon, -0.11% at 1.3455; NorAm range 1.3479-1.3451

• Summer doldrums linger, in-court US initial jobless claims shrugged off; gilt yields higher

• Oil rises as Mideast tensions escalate, UST yields rise aids USD lift

• Friday's NFP in focus, IJC hints payrolls likely a touch higher; focus to shift to UK, US CPI

• GBP$ res 1.3486 Wednesday high, 1.3505 daily high July 15, 1.3534 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3418 daily low Aug 3, 1.3403 flat 200-DMA, 1.3348 50% Fib of 1.3140- 1.3556

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)