• USD/JPY has peaked at 157.77, on Tuesday, suffers a short-term setback to 156.87

• Note the 'yield gap' keeps USD/JPY on an overall upward trajectory

• Yen has been squeezed as hawkish turn grips central banks recently

• Those that are bullish USD/JPY need to see a daily close above the broken 157.53 Fibo

• However, repeated failure to close above the 157.53 Fibo would hint at a "bull trap", a bearish sign

• 157.53 Fibo is a 61.8% retracement of 160.39-152.89 (Sept) drop

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD drops to a nine week low at 1.1440 on Sep 22

• Pair traded 1.1556-1.1461 on Sep 16 when Fed hiked

• EUR/USD freer to fall after shorts slashed between Jul-Sep

• At $3.8 bln net euro short is little restraint on it dropping

• Test of 2026 low at 1.1325 likely to follow and drop below 1.1430

• Slump in volatility challenges the current drop

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded sub-1.34 since Thursday's drop to 1.3337 (seven-week low)

• 1.3364-1.3386 is Tuesday range-to-date; 1.3366-1.33985 was Monday range

• Friday range was 1.33375-1.33975 (peak scaled on Japan's FX rate checks)

• UK PM Burnham is expected to meet Trump in New York for the first time today

• Britain borrowed £18.3 billion in August vs £15.5 billion Reuters poll forecast

• Losing the plot? Warsh's Fed more 'touchy-feely' than data-driven

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Bellevue Gold climb as much as 6.1% to A$1.645, their highest level since September 8

• Gold miner's revenue for FY26 increases 45.9% to A$576.3 million ($410.44 million)

• FY26 net profit after tax (NPAT) came in at A$7.1 million impacted by bad hedging contracts, else FY26 NPAT would have been A$205 million, adds co

• FY26 production of 143,500 oz was within its forecast range of 130,000-150,000 oz, adds co

• YTD stock down 4.6% ($1 = 1.4041 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Swetha Lakshmi in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Waratah Minerals rise as much as 34.7% to A$0.815, marking their biggest intraday pct gain since early August 4, 2025

• Stock hits its highest level since March 6

• Gold explorer reports its best drilling result to date at the Spur gold discovery in New South Wales

• Co says the results support its view that Spur could develop into a large, high-grade gold deposit

• YTD, stock up 46.2%

(Reporting by Paridhi Minda in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Tue as RBA continues to deliver cautiously hawkish rhetoric

• Bullock says AI boom adding to excess demand, Hunter flags OCR hike

• RBA Monetary Policy Board member Ian Ross speech in Melbourne 0730 GMT

• AU Aug employment due Thur, poll consensus: +20k jobs, 4.5% unemployment

• AUD break below 0.7077 100-DMA may prompt move toward 0.6920 support

• Investors assess U.S.-Iran diplomacy hopes, Brent crude +1.1% in Asia

• Range Asia 0.70985-0.7126 support 0.7077 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Tue as sentiment softens regardless of hawkish RBA comments

• RBA Assistant Governor Hunter implies tighter monetary policy in transit

• AUD pressing lower hourly Bollinger band, downside progress slow short term

• Break below 0.7077 100-DMA may trigger deeper selloff toward 0.6920 support

• RBA Governor Michele Bullock fireside chat in Sydney 0300 GMT

• RBA Monetary Policy Board member Ian Ross speech in Melbourne 0730 GMT

• Brent crude consolidates in Asia, +0.5% to $100.85 a barrel

• Range Asia 0.7107-25 support 0.7077 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners rise as much as 1.3% in early trade, adding to the broader benchmark's 0.2% gain

• Sub-index hits highest level since September 14

• Gold prices edged higher as US Treasury yields eased, although expectations of higher interest rates limited gains [GOL/]

• Sector leaders Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining advance as much as 2.1% and 1.3%, respectively

• YTD, AXGD down 0.6%, including the day's moves, slightly outperforming AXJO's 0.2% rise

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY likely to remain bid on dips after closing 0.3% higher on Monday

• Supported by hawkish comments from Fed officials, rising Fed rate bets

• Downside limited as Fed seen as more hawkish on policy than BOJ

• Threat of Japanese intervention in thin markets likely to cap rallies

• Japanese markets closed Tue-Wed; Japan conducted rate check on Friday

• Support 157.00, 156.50-60, resistance 157.50, 158.00-10, 158.60-65

• Monday range 156.58-157.53, Asia 157.30-157.43
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD drifts close to 10-week lows as DXY firms & oil supply concerns ease

• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman scheduled to provide economic update Tue

• Break below 0.5700-05 support zone will trigger slide toward 0.5627 ytd low

• Fed's Goolsbee says faster FFR hikes may be needed to win inflation fight

• U.S. President Trump to meet CN leader Xi Jinping in Washington Thur

• Range NZ 0.57145-19, support 0.5700-05 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.3% from Mon 0.71395 high as broad USD index grinds higher

• Brent crude -3.6% to $100.10 a barrel amid hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy

• RBA Governor Michele Bullock fireside chat in Sydney 0300 GMT

• RBA Monetary Policy Board member Ian Ross speech in Melbourne 0730 GMT

• Futures pricing implies 95.2% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Sep 29

• Break below 0.7077 100-DMA likely to spur deeper rout toward 0.6920 support

• Overnight range 0.7118-395 support 0.7077 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ING Research updates its Fed and ECB rate call.

"We now expect both the ECB and the Fed to hike rates in December. We're keeping our EUR/USD profile unchanged, still targeting 1.160 for year-end," ING notes.

"We expect oil to dominate as an FX driver this week, with President Trump expected to meet Gulf state members and President Xi Jinping. USD/JPY risks remain on the upside," ING adds.

• NY opened near 1.1480 after EUR/USD traded 1.1494-1.1471 overnight

• EUR/USD rallied early as USD, US yields , USD/CNH slid

• Rallies in stocks & upward moves in gold, silver contributed to buoying EUR/USD

• 1.1496 traded, the pair then fell as USD, yields firmed & spreads widened

• EUR/USD neared 1.1465 in NY's afternoon, it traded down -0.17% late in the day

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair is below 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Bear flag on daily charts, move below 61.8% Fib of 1.1325-1.1711 reinforce bear signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7130 after 0.7118 traded overnight, pair rallied in early action

• USD, US yield, USD/CNH drops & upward moves in gold, silver copper buoyed

• Equity gains and drops in oil prices also contributed to AUD/USD's buoyancy

• 0.7140 traded, sellers then emerged as USD, yields firmed & gold, silver fell

• AUD/USD turned lower, neared 0.7120, sat nearby late, was down -0.04%

• Daily RSI diverged on the 3-session high & a daily inverted hammer formed
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research discusses the USD outlook into October.

"We see the front-end repricing keeping the USD supported into October but are wary of chasing it. USD shorts had accumulated steadily into the meeting and the market has repeatedly shown a willingness to fade strong US data, so the initial move likely owes more to short-covering than fresh longs. The long end remains the constraint. Warsh attributes the sell-off there to economic strength, capex competition and geopolitics, not policy. Heavier issuance alongside rising US interest costs is increasingly USD-negative rather than supportive. With no forward guidance to price a deeper cycle, we treat the break higher as tactical," ANZ notes.

"Overall we see mild upside risks for the DXY in the week ahead , though its likely to be contained around 101," ANZ adds.

• GBP/USD pulls back from 1.3400 during NY trade. Range 1.3368-1.3399

• USD holds onto the post-Fed constructive tone, underpinning the pullback

• That said, cable does still appear to be carving a higher-low, which could offer a short-term reprieve

• Rebound setup would be invalidated on a break below the late-July low at 1.3274

• A decisive break lower opens the path toward the 2026 low near 1.3140

• Overall, ranges remain tight but with a slight bearish lean
GBPUSD hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD in the near-term.

"The USD near-term outlook would also depend on its attractiveness as a safe- haven, and next week investors will focus on the outcome of the US-China summit & the evolving situation in the Middle East. Any potential re-escalation of global trade and/or geopolitical tensions could burnish the appeal of the high-yielding, safe-haven King of FX. We note, however, that most of the portfolio inflows into the US so far this year have been dominated by purchases of risk-correlated assets. This has weakened the hitherto strong positive correlation between the USD and risk aversion, in our view," CACIB notes.

'In all, we maintain a constructive outlook on the USD in the very near term. While the latest FX price action meant that the USD has started to ‘close the gap’ to its relative rate and yield appeal vs the rest of G10, it continues to trade at a huge discount vs these fundamental drivers," CACIB adds.

(Updates)

• US-listed cryptocurrency stocks rally as bitcoin touches more than a seven-month high

• Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency, gains 4.7% to $84,890.60

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global rises 7.2%, while bitcoin bull Strategy jumps 9.6%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets ahead 5%, while Webull adds 4%

• Crypto miners also gain ground: Riot Platforms 3.8%, Mara Holdings 3.9%, Bit Digital 3.6%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by two eldest sons of President Trump, surge 7.2%

• Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet leaps 7.7%, BTC mining machine maker Canaan soars 15.9%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF adds 4.5%; iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rises 4.6%

• Including session's move, BTC down 3% YTD

(Reporting by Anand Gopal in Bengaluru)

JP Morgan likes tactical long USD/CAD exposure this week.

USDCAD is trading firmer this morning, helped by a softer tone in oil. More importantly, our flow data over the past week has shown persistent CAD selling from both real money and hedge fund accounts," JPM notes

"Following last week's hawkish Fed, the case for being long the lower-yielders, including CAD, has strengthened. At the same time, with oil already trading near recent highs, the hurdle for another meaningful leg higher looks increasingly demanding, which should help limit CAD support from the commodity side. As such, we remain comfortable holding long of USDCAD this week," JPM adds.

Goldman Sachs Research discusses USD/JPY near- and medium-term outlook.

"With the global backdrop remaining a source of downward pressure on JPY-which should persist if the Fed hikes again in October as our economists expect further reduces the case to be short USD/JPY tactically," GS notes.

"We still see clearer long-term asymmetry in USD/JPY downside, which has been reinforced by the latest rally, for three reasons. First, elevated risk of intervention remains with a reported rate check by Japan in the hours following the BoJ press conference. Second, even faster BoJ hikes could still come if the data warrant it, though our economists' baseline is a bit slower than what is currently priced.  Third, there remain higher odds of shifting portfolio flows over time," GS adds.

• The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can often draw and contain the FX spot price

• 1.1500 strikes feature heavily on the EUR/USD FX option strike expiry calendar this week

• Monday has €552 million at 1.1500, although the bigger amounts are between 1.1470-80 on €1.8 billion

• Tuesday has a huge €2 billion at 1.15, Wednesday €2.5 billion, Thursday €2.1 billion and Friday €1.1 billion at 1.1500

• If nothing else can influence the FX spot market this week, the hedging of those 1.1500 options may dominate FX
EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring September 21-25

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY buoyant as yen long grew big before BOJ's dovish hike, but intervention threat persists

• Reported "rate checks" helped a large upper shadow to be formed on Friday's USD/JPY candle

• Spot failed to sustain Friday's break above 157.53 Fibo, 61.8% retrace of 160.39-152.89 (Sept) fall

• However, the continued trading above the 156.64 level keeps the technical bias on the upside

• 156.64 level is a 50% retrace of the same 160.39-152.89 (EBS) drop

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD traded a rough 1.15-20 range for first half of 2026

• The pair appears to have slipped into a lower range

• Mid-point of the developing range could be around 1.1550

• July low 1.1325, August peak 1.1711, Sep range 1.1455-1.1654

• Current drop stretched below 1.1500 base 20-day Bollingers

• Volatility is very low which suggests little movement ahead

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 12 pip range thus far Monday; 0.7118-0.7130

• Those parameters are within Friday's 0.7104-0.7136 range

• 0.7136 is high water-mark since Wednesday's four-week low of 0.7075

• Wednesday's low, which 100DMA helped define, was plumbed on Fed's hawkish hike

• RBA's Bullock, Hunter and Ross are all due to speak on Tuesday

• Australia's Big Four banks all expect RBA to raise rates next week (Sept 29)

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)