TD Research discusses the USD outlook and sees a scope for upside in Q3.
"Much of the market dynamics feel like December 2020. Market consensus is quite bearish on the USD, along with positioning, while real rates, and breakevens are mispriced, and most are extrapolating the latest theme. The broad USD is even cheap to the current level in real rates. The one difference is that the global economy sits in a better place. However, our macro team sees signs that the global economy might start to cool," TD notes.
"That fits into our analysis in May and June a top in mobility, data surprises, and expectations might warrant a repricing of the USD. It might be a touch too early to call a bottom in the USD, but we think the risk/reward skews in favor of more upside than downside through Q3," TD adds.