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Sep 14 - 05:55 PM

USD/JPY - Probes Key Range Props Post-CPI, Risk-Off Response

By Randolph Donney  —  Sep 14 - 02:20 PM
  • USD/JPY's fell to lowest in 16 days after soft US CPI nL1N2QG130

  • Falling Tsy-JGB yield spreads and risk-off yen demand hit USD/JPY

  • Risk-off response is on reopening sector prices slipping amid Delta rise

  • Current 109.53 low on EBS tests the 30-WMA there

  • The new Sep lows also probed below the weekly Kijun at 109.57

  • Prices had been above the kijun and 30-WMA since the 104.00s in February

  • A close below them would eye a pending H&S top neckline at 109.23

  • Very low vols show little preparation for a major range breakdown

  • Risk-reversals are bearish, but not overwhelmingly so

  • IMM specs were net $7bln long USD/JPY last week. At risk?

  • Lower 21-day Bolli by the current low offers some range-trade support

  • US retail sales Thursday, Michigan sentiment Friday key pre-Sep 20-21 Fed

For more click on FXBUZ

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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