• AUD/USD has traded a 15.2 pip range thus far Monday; 0.7161-0.71762

• The peak of that range is 3.8 pips shy of Friday's 11-week high

• Ascent to 0.7180 fuelled by U.S. Treasury's bond buying gambit

• Gambit was announced on August 19 (0.7067 was AUD/USD low that day)

• CFTC data: net AUD short rose to 44,159 contracts in week to August 18

• 44,159 contracts is largest net AUD short position since December 2025

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 21.5 pip range thus far Monday; 1.3634-1.36555

• Those parameters are well within Friday's 1.3619-1.36745 range

• 1.36745 was six-month high, after UK services PMI beat boosted GBP

• Ensuing retreat to 1.3619 was influenced by U.S. services PMI beat

• Bessent will hold press conference at 1700 GMT re: Iran sanctions

• PM Burnham says UK must be "bolder" in seeking closer EU ties

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks rose as much as 1.8% to their highest since March 6

• Gold prices hit their highest level in more than three months as a subdued dollar lent support [GOL/]

• Sector majors Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources gain 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively

• Around 215.8 mln shares change hands, nearly 1.1x 30-day average

• AXGD up 7.5% YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• USD/THB trades higher, Thailand to propose tax on gold trade, imports-FinMin

• FinMin will discuss tax with the Gold Association this week

• Spot gold last +0.73% to $4636/bbl; sell-off in UST underpin

• USD/THB last at 32.67-70, traded amid 32.58-68 range so far

• Above 32.70 to see 32.80, 33.0 levels, base of 21days BB, RSI support

• Authorities not in favor of a strong THB amid impact on tourism and exports
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• USD/JPY is in stasis in Asia on 158, 158.68-159.00 EBS so far

• Japanese exporters again capping upside, absorbing any importer demand

• Spot now clearly below still ascending 159.67-161.64 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Between 158.35 flattening 200-DMA below and flat 159.98 100-DMA above

• Currently back above descending hourly Ichi cloud between 158.83-85

• Below descending 100-HMA at 159.00 and 200-HMA at 159.14 however

• Few nearby option expiries today - 159.00 $350 mln, 157.85/88 $742 mln only

• JPY crosses bid and suggests some may be returning to carries

• EUR/JPY relatively bid and indicated 185.61 EBS, below 186.02 high Friday

• Holding for now above 185.14 100-DMA, 184.74-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• GBP/JPY better bid too, 216.12-98, holding below 217.09 high Friday

• At top of 215.36-216.92 daily Ichimoku cloud

• AUD/JPY 113.58-98 and also holding below 114.16 high Friday

• Above its 112.81-113.01 daily Ichimoku cloud

• NZD/JPY still shines among the crosses, 94.77-95.14, below 95.16 high Friday

• Not far too from 95.42 recent peak on July 21

• CHF/JPY holding own, 197.87-198.59, sub-199.07 high Thursday, 199.56 200-DMA

• Most in wait for news from Fed's Jackson Hole symposium later this week

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


NZD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD holding own near recent highs, Asia today 1.1670-87 EBS

• Charts show double top at 1.1710, 1.1711 Thursday and Friday, respectively

• Spot near top of 1.1640-88 hourly Ichimoku cloud, kijun 1.1690 above

• Ascending 100-HMA 1.1645, 1.1631 200-DMA, underlining support

• What looks to be a double head and shoulders formation on hourly chart

• Neckline likely in area of lows since Thursday around 1.1669-70

• Chock-a-block option expiries below today, between 1.1600-95 total E7.5 bln

• These option expiries supportive, E1.5 bln 1.100-30 too, to help cap?

• EUR/JPY also relatively bid, indicated 185.61 EBS, below 186.02 high Friday

• Holding for now above 185.14 100-DMA, 184.74-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• EUR/CHF in stasis? Asia 0.9346-54 EBS after push up to 0.9363 Friday

• Follows fall from 0.9406 to 0.9308 Wednesday, in middle of this range

• EUR/GBP on back foot, 0.8556-59, in 0.8538-92 descending daily Ichi cloud

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/CHF:


EUR/GBP:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• XAU/USD up 0.3% in Asia after rallying to $4640.53, a three-month high

• Boosted by return of debasement trade and technical buying

• U.S. measures aimed at capping long-dated yields sparks rush to safe havens

• Receding Fed rate-hike expectations, global growth concerns underpin gold

• Central bank gold purchases picked up in Q2 after weak Q1, providing support

• Technical picture positive after daily close above 200-day MA at $4515

• 4574, 38.2% of Jan-July drop overcome; next objective 50% retracement @ 4769

• Support 4575-4580, 4515-4525; Fri range 4508-4632, Asia 4594-4640
XAU:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY in stasis and back below 159.00, Jackson Hole, fresh news awaited

• Asia 158.68-159.00 EBS, follows 158.03-159.78 range last week

• Well below still ascending daily Ichimoku cloud between 159.64-161.64

• Between flattening 200-DMA below at 158.35, 100-DMA at 159.98 in cloud

• Also below now descending 100-HMA at 159.02, 200-HMA above at 159.15

• Tapering hourly Ichimoku cloud 158.72-88, maybe supportive?

• Few significant option expiries in area today

• Only 157.85/88 total $742 mln, $350 mln at 159.00 strike

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials in stasis, 2s off recent lows @250 bps

• Differential in 10s up from recent lows some and @181 bps

• IMM CTA yen shorts up 10.8K contracts to 52,088, USD bought elsewhere too

• Japanese exporters likely to continue with sales, absorb any importer demand

• Jackson Hole Fed symposium later this week likely market highlight

• Central bank expectations to see shift? Middle East stand-off continues

• Of note tonight will be US TsySec Bessent's scheduled presser

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on IMM CTAs , Middle East

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +6.2% from Jun 26 0.5627 low, as hawkish RBNZ combines with USD woe

• Pair targets key 0.5995 resistance, break above opens topside to 0.6090

• NZ Q2 retail sales volumes -0.5% q/q (prior +0.9%), +3.3% versus year ago

• U.S.-Canada trade debacle brings chaotic U.S. trade policy back to focus

• USD confidence dips amid U.S. Treasury plan to cap long-term interest rates

• Iran threatens military response to harsher U.S. sanctions, impasse persists

• Range NZ 0.5975-785, support 0.5831 0.5762, resistance 0.5995 0.6090-95
DXY Daily 55-DMA


NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% from Fri 0.7180 high, but remains firmly on upwards trajectory

• Pair consolidating gains after breaking key 0.7130-35 resistance zone Fri

• U.S. Treasury's bond buyback plan undermines confidence in USD

• Collapse of U.S.-Canada trade deal revamps global anxiety on U.S. tariffs

• Iran threatens military response to latest U.S. sanctions, impasse persists

• RBA Aug monetary policy meeting minutes released 0130 GMT Tue

• AU Jul CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.8% m/m, +3.2% y/y (headline)

• Range early Asia 0.7161-68 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7200 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD G10 net spec long cut by $1.33bn in Aug12-18 IMM period; USD index -0.15%

• Data somewhat mooted as USD fell after Wednesday US Trsry buyback announcement

• EUR$ +0.3% in period; specs +922 contracts now -59.1k; hawkish ECB vs dovish Fed view

• $JPY +0.2%; specs -10.8k contracts now -52.9k; pair capped pre-160, eyes on BoJ Sept 18

• GBP$ +0.16%; specs +1.6k contracts now -54.6k; shorts unwind on shift lower in US yields

• $CAD -0.18%; specs +15.2k contracts now -158.2k; Fed-BoC convergence pares CAD short

• CAD short remains significant as of Aug 18 data; short likely cut further in current period

• AUD$ +0.38%; specs -4.9k contracts now -44.2k; RBA highest G7 rate amid dovish Fed view

Majors w/IMM performance Chart:


IMM Position Table:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7160 after 0.7111 traded overnight, rally then extended

• Pair rallied despite USD buying against the euro and yen in NY trading

• AUD/USD hit a 2-1/2-month high of 0.7179 in NY's afternoon, was up +0.92%

• Gold, silver, copper, equity rallies & USD/CNH's drop helped buoy AUD/USD

• Rally stalled short of the 76.4% Fib of 0.7277-0.6868 & June's monthly high

• Techs are bullish; RSIs indicate upward momentum, pair above 10- & 21-DMAs

• August's monthly bull hammer candle reinforces the bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses NZD positioning and outlook.

"The weekly IMM positioning data is a data series tracked by many without necessarily throwing out a strong message but the positioning for the New Zealand dollar is definitely worth highlighting. The latest data, to the week ending 11^th August, revealed Leveraged Funds’ total short position had hit a record in the series of the data going back to 2006," MUFG notes.

"The positioning could also reflect scepticism over the ability of the RBNZ to deliver 100bps of tightening over the next year...While 100bps of tightening may prove excessive, the scale of short NZD positioning looks more extreme and we would argue at this level, the bar is relatively high for a notable leg lower for NZD. We should also be mindful of a potential flip in the terms of trade bias. The El Nino risks point to clear upside potential for food inflation over the coming 6mths and that could provide NZD with a positive terms of trade lift," MUFG adds.

USD/JPY looks set to consolidate, though market participants will watch to see whether the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium will provide fresh support for the yen. The pair is stabilizing above its 200-day moving average of 158.34 after recovering from oversold conditions and rebounding toward the base of the daily Ichimoku cloud near 159.00.

However, extending gains through 159 and toward 160 may prove challenging given exporter selling interest, persistent fears of official intervention, broader bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar and narrowing forward points as markets price the risk of at least one Bank of Japan rate hike this year.

Bearish dollar sentiment and firmer volatility would ordinarily argue for a lower USD/JPY, though technicals continue to suggest dip-buying interest as stable equity markets support carry trades and rising commodity prices limit broader yen strength.

As a result, USD/JPY looks range-bound between support at 158 and the 159.60 Kijun-sen.

Upcoming data and Jackson Hole developments next week may jolt the market out of its current calm, depending on the messages that emanate from the gathering.

Markets are also gearing up for Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the Aug. 31 G20 finance ministers gathering.

Options price only modest risks of data surprises or renewed intervention, though such events have set the stage for official action should yen weakness re-emerge. As a result, the pair appears set to consolidate between key support at 158 and the Kijun-sen resistance near 159.60.
Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs discusses the UST buyback program."

Bessent got a lot more explicit yesterday. Buybacks can be more than $4bn per issue, Treasury has a "big toolkit," and he is now talking about fiscal consolidation. Bessent himself labeled their action as "...What I would call a Treasury twist here in terms of the bond market". The market did not respond well to the follow up communication though... most of the initial rates move reversed, with 10s back around 4.7% and 30s around 5.25%. Between joint yen interventions, long end buybacks, and an explicit willingness to do more, we are dealing with a highly active and tactical Treasury," GS notes.

"[Our] instinct remains that the more durable expression is lower dollar rather than structurally lower rates. While the comments on fiscal consolidation are potentially the most important new development, the market remains skeptical about the near-term execution and the specific mechanisms proposed (such as the Fraud task force) to achieve hundreds of billions in savings," GS adds.

AUD/USD surged to a 2½-month high on Friday, with the pair positioned to potentially break above 0.7700 if the U.S. dollar continues to be shunned by investors. The dollar's broad weakness began Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Bessent announced plans to double buybacks of long-duration Treasury securities, and selling intensified Thursday when he indicated buybacks could exceed $4 billion per issue. This dollar aversion has fueled sharp rallies not just in AUD/USD but across alternative assets including gold, silver, bitcoin, and ether. Should the greenback remain out of favor, both these dollar alternatives and AUD/USD could stay well-bid.

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD's price action is flashing upside risks, and an extension of the current rally could trigger a significant bullish signal. Since March, the pair has been consolidating gains from its rally off the November 2025 monthly low—a pattern that itself is considered bullish. This consolidation phase would be complete with a break above the May monthly high, which would suggest AUD/USD's longer-term uptrend is set to resume.

If that breakout occurs, the measured-move target derived from the November 2025 low to May 2026 high rally points to a test of the 0.7720 area. Adding to the bullish case, the monthly RSI is rising and the 20-month Bollinger Bands are both rising and widening—technical signals that support the potential for further gains in the pair.
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the latest wave of yen-buying intervention and USD/JPY outlook into year-end.

The current yen-buying intervention framework involves four key players: Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF), the US Treasury, the Takaichi administration, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Yet their degree of alignment is unclear given differences in mandates and policy objectives.

"Policy options to support the yen include FX intervention by the Japanese and US authorities, BoJ rate hikes, and fiscal or broader economic measures by the government. Intervention can also affect the incentives and effectiveness of other policy tools.

There is also growing speculation that Prime Minister Takaichi could reshuffle the cabinet by September. It is unclear whether and how intervention developments would influence personnel decisions, but political considerations cannot be ruled out," BofA notes 

"We remain constructive on JPY and revised down USD/JPY forecasts this month, expecting USD/JPY at 149 (152 previous) for end-2026," BofA adds.

ANZ Research discusses EUR/USD outlook for the coming week.

"Looking ahead, we remain constructive on EUR/USD, particularly as domestic fundamentals contrast with softer US data. However, we expect gains to be steadier rather than exponential after the recent rally. The pair remains above its 50-, 100- and 200-dmas, signalling underlying demand on dips. Momentum indicators, however, appear stretched, with the 14-day RSI at 74, firmly in overbought territory. While this does not negate the broader bullish trend, it suggests the pace of further appreciation may slow in the near week," ANZ notes.

"On the crosses, EUR/GBP remains attractive. Euro area growth data have continued to surprise positively, while expectations for additional BoE tightening remain more constrained. In the near term, we see the pair rising to 0.86with support at 0.856 (50-dma) and resistance at 0.862 (100-dma)," ANZ adds.

• AUD/USD invalidated Thursday's bearish signals today, traded 0.7111-0.7166

• Pair hit a 2-1/2-month high as the USD seems unwanted by investors

• US dollar alternatives were sought which helped boost AUD/USD

• Gold, silver, Bitcoin rallied significantly & equities traded higher

• USD/CNH drop to a fresh 3-1/2- low of 6.7180 contributed to AUD/USD's lift

• AUD/UD leaped above the 61.8% Fibo of the 0.7277-0.6867 decline

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs & pair's hold above 10- & 21-DMAs are bullish signals

• 76.4% Fib of 0.7277-0.6867 & June's monthly high at 0.7190 are key resistances
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies rise in premarket trading after Bitcoin climbs more than 6% to the highest level since late May

• Crypto stocks gained in the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump called on Congress to pass a crypto bill, as well as a boost to risk assets following the Treasury Department's move to support ​long-duration bonds

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global gains 6.1%

• Crypto miner Bit Digital advances 4.7%, while Hut 8 adds 2.9%

• Mara Holdings climbs 5.2%, while Riot Platforms Inc rises 3.3%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF gains 6.8% and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF 6.7%

(Reporting by Tharuniyaa Lakshmi in Bengaluru)

• Eurozone manufacturing PMI rises to 52.8 in August beating f/c

• Eurozone services PMI beats 51.5 f/c at 51.7 in August

• Composite rises to highest since Nov 2025 at 52.1 from 52.0

• EUR/USD rise over 1.1696 targets return to May 6 high at 1.1797

• A rise over 1.1737 would target April 17 peak at 1.1849

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY breaks from the pack, untouched by the USD selling pressure hitting other currency pairs

• Pair stays range-bound, reinforcing bias to stay short USD/JPY option gamma as realised vol remains pinned

• 1-month implied vol just 7.40 - front-dated tenors trapped in a tight range, barely reacting to broader USD sell-off

• Surface still firm though: 1-month 25d risk reversals at 1.90 JPY calls over puts - between 1.85-2.0 this week

• This downside USD/JPY skew looks driven entirely by intervention risk, not genuine conviction to sell USD/JPY outright

• Divergence highlights that the FX options market still not treating JPY as a clean USD-weakness beneficiary

• Related comment - USD put demand stalls as Bessent bid unravels
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Bitcoin gains almost 17% in just three sessions

• BTC surges from $64,112 to $75,726

• Rally accelerates on move over 200-DMA at $68,963

• The 200-DMA defined Thursday's low now underpinning Bitcoin

• May highs around $78,000 and big nearby fibo now in focus

• $77,462 is 78.6% May-Jul drop - extension to $82,833 likely if broken

•
Bitcoin


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Friday August 21

• EUR/USD: 1.1600 (1.1BLN), 1.1625 (895M), 1.1640-50 (1.2BLN), 1.1685 (1.2BLN), 1.1700 (435M), 1.1715 (519M), 1.1800 (1.4BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.7925 (300M). GBP/USD: 1.3590-1.3600 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7100 (450M), 0.7125 (302M). AUD/NZD: 1.1980 (142M), 1.2000 (200M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3800 (220M), 1.3850 (440M). EUR/JPY: 181.90-95 (1.5BLN)

• USD/JPY: 158.00 (614M), 158.50 (264M), 159.00 (901M), 159.40-50 (439M), 159.75 (207M)

• FX options wrap - USD put demand drives price action (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)