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By John Noonan  —  May 24 - 11:40 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 0.42% lower at 1.0904 and traded 1.0887/1.0908

  • It is around the session low heading into the afternoon

  • EUR/USD trading heavy despite S&P futures trading 0.33% higher

  • FX market remains wary of building tensions between US and China

  • Uncertainty on future of France-German support plan also weighs nL8N2D5064

  • EUR/USD approaching decent support between 1.0860/1.0885

  • 10-day MA is 1.0885; 21-day MA is 1.0873 and 61.8 of 1.0775/1.1008 is 1.0864

  • A break below 1.0860 targets the May 14 low at 1.0775

  • Hourly resistance is at 1.0915 and sellers re tipped 1.0950

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 24 - 09:45 PM
  • S&P futures up just 0.10% after opening over 0.50% higher

  • AUD/USD correlated with S&P futures of late and is slipping lower

  • AUD/USD traded to 0.6550 earlier and is now hovering around 0.6525

  • Support at 10-day MA at 0.6508 and 21-day MA at 0.6490

  • A break below 0.6490 would suggest short-term top in place at 0.6616

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 24 - 08:30 PM
  • Touch firmer than 1.0904 NY close after touching 1.0890 early

  • USD a touch softer with E-Mini S&P +0.4% on coronavirus vaccine optimism

  • EU 'frugals' oppose Merkel-Macron plan for coronavirus grants nL8N2D5064

  • Eurogroup's Centeno, recovery fund step towards EU fiscal union nL8N2D50AG

  • EU divisions on fiscal matters remain deep, but a compromise must be found

  • Charts; upper 21 day Bolli bands capped on close last week - 1.0990 today

  • EUR back at familiar levels, 1.0858 61.8% May bounce is initial support

  • 1.0875-85 550M, 1.0895-1.0900 800M, 1.0910-20 1BLN, 1.0930-45 480M strikes

eur may 25 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 24 - 07:50 PM
  • Flat at 0.6535 NY close after what looks like an early 0.6495 D3 miss hit

  • PM stressed jobs key economically to emerging from lockdown nL4N2D602C

  • China response to Hong Kong protests key for risk in Asia nL4N2D602F

  • Charts; neutral momentum studies, 21 day Bolli's 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edge higher

  • Upper 21 day Bolli indicates over bought market capped last week, now 0.6598

  • Positive setup targets a test of the 0.6660-72 200 DMA & 76.4% Dec-Mar fall

  • 0.6489, 61.8% of last week's bounce & Fridays 0.6572 top support-resistance

  • E-mini S&P +0.35% on coronavirus vaccine optimism nL1N2D424N

aud may 25 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  May 24 - 06:55 PM
  • USD/JPY creeps higher after yet another test of 107.30-35 holds on Friday

  • Lifted by resilient & buoyant Wall Street , virus vaccine hopesnL1N2D32N3

  • U.S. plans massive virus vaccine testing effort to meet year-end deadline

  • Sino-U.S tensions over Hong Kong, coronavirus capnL4N2D602FnL4N2D604O

  • Japan eyes fresh stimulus plan worth over $929 bln- Nikkei nL4N2D60CM

  • Asia trading likely to be quiet due to Singapore, U.S.& UK holiday Monday

  • Resistance 107.80-85, 108.00-08, support 107.30-35, 107.00-10

Japan's growing dependence on China trade: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 24 - 06:45 PM
  • Flat - 1.2168/1.2180 range early, as Cummings dominates UK news nL8N2D604Q

  • Report Cummings broke lockdown rules sparked resignation calls nL8N2D60BR

  • PM Johnson backs his main man - lockdown drive 'understandable' nS8N2D402U

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head lower - negative setup

  • 1.2292, 38.2% April-May fall capped last week and remains pivotal resistance

  • 1.2159, 61.8% of this week's bounce provided a base Friday - now supports

  • Sustained 1.2159 break would open the door to a test of the 1.2075 May low

  • 1.2207/11, NY high, 10 & 5 DMA are initial resistance

gbp may 25 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 24 - 05:50 PM
  • EUR/USD opens just below 1.0900 after falling 0.43% on Friday

  • Pair retreated to middle of range as China tensions boosted USD and JPY

  • Support is found at the 10-day MA at 1.0886 and 21-day MA at 1.0873

  • Fibo support at 1.0864, which is 61.8 of 1.0775/1.1008

  • Hourly resistance around 1.0915 with sellers tipped 1.095/55

  • Key today will be EUR/JPY flows and moves in risk assets

  • Market will be thin with Singapore, London and NY on holiday

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  May 24 - 05:45 PM
  • AUD/USD off to a quiet start in Asia ahead of a holiday in many centres

  • Holds above support despite rising geopolitical tensions which is positive

  • U.S.-China spar over Hong Kong, virus cover-ups nL4N2D602FnL4N2D604O

  • China-AU tensions lingernL1N2D306W; Australia reopening helps nL4N2D602C

  • Surging iron ore price nL4N2D4266, buoyant Wall Street support

  • Singapore, U.S.& UK holiday Monday; Indonesia, India and Malaysia closed too

  • Support 0.6491-95, 0.6465, resistance 0.6540-45, 0.6570

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  May 21 - 06:25 PM
  • USD/JPY continues its sideways consolidation within an ever narrowing range

  • Risk mood turns negative as U.S.-China tensions escalate, haven JPY sought

  • Fears of deeper Japan recession limits USD downside, leads to stalemate

  • BOJ emergency meeting Friday won't touch main policy rates nL4N2D127X

  • China NPC Friday eyed as U.S.-China continue war of words nL4N2D32O6

  • Resistance 107.80-85, 108.00-08, support 107.30-35, 107.00-10

Dollar holds lion's share of FX derivatives market: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 21 - 06:15 PM
  • AUD/USD opens where it settled in Asia yesterday - down 0.42% from Wednesday

  • It rallied to 0.6598 in US morning before US-China tensions weighed on risk nL1N2D329Q

  • US-China trade tensions likely to keep AUD/USD below 200-day MA at 0.6661

  • AUD/USD support at yesterday's 0.6549 low and the 10-day MA at 0.6507

  • Key to direction will be Asia stock market reaction to US-China tensions

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 22 - 09:07 AM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/CAD technical outlook and maintains a bullish bias in the near-term.

"USDCAD saw another test and hold of the pivotal support zone seen at the current range lows, 50% retracement of the 2020 surge and ‘neckline’ to the large base at 1.3856/3793, which we continue to look to provide a solid floor the market.

We therefore look for a renewed swing higher within the range, with resistance initially seen at 1.4080/89, ahead of 1.4114/17. Above here would see resistance at 1.4141/47, ahead of 1.4173, removal of which would negate the previous bearish ‘outside day’ and reinforce the anticipated upswing, with resistance then seen at the upper end of the range at the April highs at 1.4262/65, where we would expect to see fresh sellers at first," CS notes. 

"In contrast, a clear and conclusive break below 1.3793 would turn the trend back lower and see weakness extend further, with support seen at 1.3734 next," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  May 21 - 02:20 PM
  • Pair is down on the day as NY opens nL1N2D30JV but rallies early

  • Equity bounce, copper gains, AUD/JPY rally near 71.10 boost AUD/USD

  • 0.6600 neared but sellers emerge; US$ & yen firm as risk sours further

  • Investors concerned about US-Sino tensions nL4N2D33D3nW1N2BH00Q

  • AUD/USD drops near 0.6555 but lifts, sits near 0.6565 late in the day

  • Rally off March 19 low intact, 0.6663/0.6685 is an impediment for bulls

  • Bears need back below 0.6370 support if they want to take control

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 21 - 03:00 PM

Citi discusses EUR/USD outlook and adopts a sell-on-rallies bais.

"We reiterate that we think Monday’s French-German announcement about a proposed EUR540bn EU recovery fund is significant in reinforcing our expectation that pro-European forces will avert a major escalation in breakup risks, but is not sufficient to create a major investment case in Eurozone assets or EUR," Citi notes. 

"Even though we acknowledge this initiative as a positive for the Eurozone, we still look for entry points to fade the EUR rally, as the key driver of our EUR-bearish view is weak growth prospects for the Eurozone, which the proposal only affects at the margin," Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 21 - 01:55 PM
  • GBP/USD hovers near flat into NY close, NorAm range 1.2249-1.2209

  • Pair found offers just abv 10-DMA 1.2249 for third consecutive day

  • Negative rate talk in focus, Front-end of UK gilt curve, 2-5yr goes negative

  • Sterling slips on rising BoE negative rate talk nL1N2D30ZX

  • Res 1.2292 38.2% Fib of 1.2644-1.2075, then 55,21 & 30-DMAs in mid-1.23's

  • EUR/GBP -0.15% at 0.8956, Thurs range 0.90-0.8947; longs take profit on new 2-month high, pre-US holiday

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 21 - 01:30 PM

Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and maintains its target at 1.09, through Q3.

"In our view, there is an economic/political/debt deflation linked tail risk, which is holding down EUR/USD. If we enter a period of economic and political stabilization, the absence of realized but currently priced-in risk could add to EUR strength. In our view, the near-term may indeed prove to be such, which is why we keep our forecast unchanged at 1.09," Danske notes. 

"Talks of fiscal and monetary tightening by year-end and lack of global coordination could eventually be renewed drivers for EUR weakness," Danske adds.

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  May 21 - 10:15 AM

EUR/USD finally took out barriers at 1.1000, but profit takes and fresh shorts leaning against 200-dma (1.1015), as well as more alleged barrier defence, proved too much for bulls.
Options barely reacted, despite alleged short gamma, although that's more likely above the 200-dma.
Implied volatility heavy and 1-month risk reversals unable to register a topside premium nL1N2D30BH.
AUD/USD 1-month implied volatility set to lose its crisis king status to GBP/USD, but a 2.0 discount to 1-month AUD/USD realised vol screams value, so dealers must be expecting actual volatility to wane nL1N2D30SE.
USD/JPY 1-month vol nearing value levels too - its the lowest of the major USD pairings at just 5.6 vols today - only 1.0 away from it's pre crisis low nL1N2D30HW.
GBP/USD vols off slightly today - 1-month 10.5-10.3, but a solid premium to EUR and JPY highlights GBP's greater actual volatility risk.
Risk reversals show the GBP put over call premium is still high at 1.95 vols, meaning GBP/USD downside deemed vulnerable - not helped by negative UK rate talk and Brexit risk nL1N2D30DG

1-month implied volatility Click here

1-month USDJPY vol Click here

EURUSD risk reversals Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  May 21 - 08:40 AM
  • US$ softens as NY begins, EUR/USD nears the 200-DMA, aided by EUR/JPY rally

  • EZ May PMI above April but still shows contracting nZRN000FN0, buoys euro

  • US weekly, continuing claims above are slightly estimates nAQN02K8VO

  • US$ sold a bit, equities bounce, EUR/USD stays bid near 1.1008 EBS high

  • 200-DMA & May 1 high are immediate res, March 31 high is res thereafter

  • Break of March 31 high likely leads to test of 1.1145/50 resistance

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 21 - 07:55 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.1000 options are knocked out

  • Pair reaches 1.1005 but traders encounter more resistance and few stops

  • This shouldn't surprise anyone

  • Traders are long. There's lots of resistance and likely more barriers

  • 200-DMA 1.1015, it usually pays to counter initial moves against a 200-DMA

  • Two prior 1.1000 tests failed nearby in last two months nL1N2D30C1

  • Daily cloud top 1.1065. Levels between 1.1010-50 suit sellers

EUR/USD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 21 - 06:05 AM
  • EUR/GBP is overbought, trading above the 30-day upper bollinger-band

  • Risk grows for a drop much towards the rising 10-DMA, now at 0.8878

  • A break and daily close below the 10-DMA will weaken the outlook further

  • Fourteen-day momentum remains positive, so the underlying outlook is mixed

  • We are long at 0.8905, our stop has been raised to cost TGM2343

  • EUR/USD went up, it must now come down: overbought nL1N2D308J

  • GBP/USD chart bearish, momentum negative, Fibo below exposed nL1N2D30C2

Daily Bollinger Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 21 - 04:50 AM
  • AUD/NZD flirted with parity during a period of great turmoil in March

  • Pair then rallied to 1.0830 this month then slipped a little

  • Major long-term highs have been gradually falling

  • High near 1.15 in 2015, 1.13 in 2016 and 2017 and 1.1200 in 2018

  • Parity test drove pair around 200-300 pips below key lows seen since 2015

  • Applying that degree of change to peaks of prior ranges, 1.10 a likely cap

  • Like parity 1.1000 is key psychological marker. 1.00-1.10 looks a good bet

AUD/NZD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 21 - 03:45 AM

The Swiss National Bank's intervention and China's apparent tolerance of a softer currency are underpinning EUR/USD nL1N2D308L.
The Swiss central bank is probably the biggest EUR/USD player by a wide margin.
Until it rebalances its reserve, EUR/CHF support will underpin EUR/USD and in this respect Switzerland has an ally.
Trade threats undermined China's currency, lowering its value more tha 3% in the past 45 days, and leaving it on the cusp of major technical levels.
As one of the biggest components of China's currency basket, the euro should be supported if the more politically sensitive USD/yuan pairs are held steady.
USD/CNH and USD/CNY are little changed in two months.
EUR/USD support has proved surprisingly resilient in the past two months even with traders long.
EUR/USD has now risen to the peak of the current 1.07-10 range.
China and Switzerland have big roles to play in whether that range holds.

EUR/USD and EURCHF Click here

CNH basket Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 21 - 02:35 AM
  • EUR/USD will likely form a top, market technical signals a possible reversal

  • The 30-day upper bollinger-band, now at 1.0988, has been reached: overbought

  • In coming sessions the risk will shift back to the 30-DMA, now at 1.0872

  • A break and daily close below 30-DMA would weaken the outlook further

  • We are now short at 1.0960, placed our stop above the 200-DMA now at 1.1015

  • FX traders should insure against a EUR/USD slump nL1N2D20DI

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2D208N

Daily Bollinger Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 21 - 11:45 AM

TD Research flags 107.30 level in USD/JPY as a near-term attractor level, while maintains a structural bullish bias on USD/CAD. 

"We are still somewhat surprised to see USDJPY heavy while stocks remain bid. Looking forward, we think 107.30 (+/-) could become a near-term attractor as this represents (minor) trendline support off the early May lows," TD notes. 

"USDCAD rejected another probe below 1.39. Technically, the charts point to a descending triangle. While a break of support around 1.3850 could be significant we have yet to hear an argument as to why you would want to own CAD. With stocks at their post-crash highs and USDCAD trading where it is, a lot of good news is in the price whatever good news that may be. With that in mind, we remain focused on upside risks overall. We think 1.3970/00 will be the first notable topside threshold for the pair, that will put 1.4050/80 daily downtrend resistance into focus," TD adds.

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 21 - 12:00 AM
  • Off 0.3%, as E-mini S&P's -0.6% led risk off USD strength in Asia

  • Trades towards the base of a 1.2193-1.2237 range - busy as Asia opened

  • Charts; momentum studies conflict, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs fall - negative signals

  • 1.2292, 38.2% April-May fall capped again Wednesday - strong resistance

  • Targets a test of 1.2030/75 zone 50% March-April rise & May low [nL4N2D24AV

  • 1.2186, 50% of this week's bounce then 1.2159 61.8%, initial supports

  • Earlier 1.2237 top then 1.2287 NY high first resistance

  • PMI's lead UK data - see chart for polls

ukd may 21 Click here

gbp 3 may 21 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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