CIBC Research reviews today's Canada jobs report for the month of September.

"Canadian employment slumped again in September, with the unemployment rate ticking up slightly as new US tariffs took hold. The 68K decline in employment was in stark contrast to consensus expectations for a modest 10K rebound, and followed a 42K drop in the prior month as well. Data volatility appears to have been the main cause of the decline, with a 35K reduction seen in education services which often exhibits volatility around the start of new school years. However, the 13K decline in manufacturing employment could be a sign that new US tariffs are taking a toll. Through the monthly volatility, the 6-month average employment growth now sits at just 9K. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.5%, which was in line with the consensus forecast and was prevented from rising further by a reduction in the participation rate. Wage growth for permanent employees remained only modest at 2.3%, despite accelerating slightly from 2.0% in the prior month.

"Overall, while the weakness in today's employment data is likely more a reflection of data volatility than the impact of new US tariffs, it does support our call that the Bank of Canada will remain patient and keep interest rates on hold at the two remaining meetings this year," CIBC adds.

ANZ Research likes selling USD/JPY on rallies.

"Our bias remains for a stronger JPY over the medium term. Japan combines one of the strongest growth trajectories of the major economies with attractive valuation support and persistent domestic inflation pressures, a backdrop that should allow the BoJ to continue normalising policy while other major central banks are moving in the opposite direction.

"While domestic political developments may create periods of volatility, we view rallies in USD/JPY as opportunities to position for medium-term downside, particularly if the pair fails to sustain a break above the 159 area," ANZ adds.

(Typo corrected)

• Gold modestly firmer as $4200 is tested, but still largely confined to recent range

• Latest lift aided by Trump's statement that the US will not strike Iran before Midterms

• Trendline resistance caps for now, which underscores the view that risks still lean lower

• Further hurdles sit at $4260 (100-day MA) and $4310 (55-day MA)

• Technically, a close above the 55-day MA would negate the current bearish setup

• Though, unless the USD and UST yields sustain a pullback, gold rebounds should remain limited
gold tech

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

• EUR/GBP has traded a 10 pip range since the European open; 0.8473-0.8483

• 0.8483 is also the high since Wednesday's 16-month low of 0.8449

• Thursday high was 0.8481. 0.85 (ex-support point) is now a resistance level

• UK PM Burnham's Labour fends off Greens in Holborn by-election

• Snap UK general election? It might suit Burnham, but not pound

• French student protesters vow to keep up their fight after scoring first win

EURGBP

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen is headed for a fourth weekly drop in a row

• Overall bias remains on the upside as USD/JPY usually climbs in October

• USD/JPY has seen a 157.77-158.42 range, on Friday, according to EBS data

• The 14-day momentum reading is positive, highlighting the bullish bias, 160 a target

• However the daily cloud, that currently spans the 157.94-159.60 region, weighs near-term

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD rises to eye 0.6990 as US dollar eases on Trump guidance

• Trump says US will not attack Iran before midterm elections on Nov 3

• 0.6990 is October high-to-date (on Tuesday). 0.6995 was Sept 30 high

• CFTC data at 1930 GMT will show if net AUD short rose again in week to Oct 6

• Net AUD short hit nine-month high of 63,239 contracts in week to Sept 29

• RBA meeting minutes, Australian employment data due next week

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Huge FX option strikes at 1.1200 (€1.8bln) and 1.1250-55 (€3.5bln) expire at 10-am New York cut Friday

• Soon-to-expire FX option attract the largest hedging flows and can add to support/resistance at the strikes

• EUR/USD currently trading well inside these option strike parameters so far on Friday - 1.1212-43 (EBS)

• Key tech support is Monday's 16-month low 1.1161, resistance at Tues recovery high 1.1276 and Fri's 1.1285 high

• 1.1290 is 23.6% Fibo retrace of 1.1711-1.1161 drop. Sellers touted 1.1310-30 - where French debt breakdown began Oct 1

• Option prices ease as spot consolidates into long US holiday weekend, but keep danger premium on the downside
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3250 as oil prices fall on Trump's Iran war guidance

• Trump says US will not attack Iran before midterm elections on Nov 3

• 1.3185 was one-week low on Thursday, as oil prices rose

• US is a net energy exporter; Britain is a net energy importer

• Pimco's CIO says 10-year UST yield could rise to 6% for first time since 2000

• UK PM Burnham's Labour fends off Greens in Holborn by-election

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Friday October 9

• EUR/USD: 1.1200 (1.8BLN), 1.1225 (403M), 1.1235-40 (783M), 1.1250-55 (3.5BLN)

• 1.1280-90 (745M), 1.1300-05 (936M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8250 (380M), 0.8300 (520M). EUR/CHF: 0.9320-25 (445M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3200 (486M), 1.3220 (184M), 1.3300 (759M). 1.3400 (630M). EUR/GBP: 0.8500-05 (200M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6900 (1.4BLN), 0.6950 (904M), 0.7000 (1.1BLN), 0.7025 (508M), 0.7045-50 (1.4BLN)

• NZD/USD: 0.5550 (190M), 0.5750 (733M). AUD/NZD: 1.2325 (213M), 1.2470 (600M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4195-1.4200 (367M), 1.4220 (240M). EUR/JPY: 180.50 (492M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (1.3BLN), 157.20 (780M), 157.45-50 (1.1BLN), 158.00 (1.6BLN), 159.00 (721M)

• FX options wrap - Lurking dangers underpin hedging costs (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD up 0.1% in Asia after yet another recovery from below 1.3200

• Solid base forms @ 1.3180-90; more support @ 1.3140-1.3160 lows in Mar, June

• US yields close lower after a strong 30-year bond auction, supporting GBP

• Pause in European bond selloff also supports GBP sentiment

• Trump's pledge to avoid Iran strike before Nov midterm vote lifts Sterling

• Traders look ahead to next week's busy data and central bank calendar

• US inflation, UK August GDP, industrial and manufacturing output, trade due

• Fed Chair Warsh fireside chat next Fri at IMF/World bank meeting eyed

• BoE officials Sarah Breeden, Megan Greene, Huw Pill, Gov Andrew Bailey speak

• Burnham's Labour hopes to retain former PM Starmer's London seat in Thu vote

• Resistance 1.3250-55, 1.3275-85; Wed range 1.3194-1.3274, Asia 1.3206-1.3221
UK Trade:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.1% in Asia Fri selling pressure eases on pause in bond anxiety

• EUR entrenched in downtrend, down cumulative 4.2% from 1.1711 Aug 21 high

• Pair targets 1.1065 17-month low, break opens door for move toward 1.0733

• Investors remain wary of FR debt problems despite spending cut promises

• ECB expected to hold deposit rate steady in Oct, despite surging inflation

• Euro zone Aug industrial production due Thur, prior -0.1% m/m, flat y/y

• Range Asia 1.121150-2875, support 1.1065 1.0733, resistance 1.1710 1.1850
EUR Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Fri, traders recalibrating as bond anxiety temporarily abates

• Pair trading near upper hourly Bollinger band, looks overbought short term

• AUD firmly stuck in month-long downtrend, 0.6865 support the next target

• RBA Sep meeting minutes due for release Tue, will be heavily scrutinized

• Hurricane Isaias shutters some U.S. oil production, WTI +0.5% in Asia

• Trump rules out fresh attacks on Iran in lead up to U.S. midterm elections

• Range Asia 0.69575-67 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7052 0.7282
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up 0.15% in Asia after finding support near 157.50 on Thursday

• Supported by higher oil prices, tech selloff; Nasdaq closed down 1.25%

• US crude closed 2.8% higher after 5.5% surge on Middle East tensions

• Japan August household spending falls 3.1% year/year

• Japan reboots DOGE-style spending review to fund Takaichi pledges

• Japanese markets and US bond markets closed Monday; Asia range 157.85-158.14

• Thu range 157.51-158.37; resistance 158.40-50, support 157.50, 157.00
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research adopts a slightly bullish bias on EUR/USD in October.

"Beyond France, Europe’s economic backdrop has strengthened. The ECB raised the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% in September, with staff forecasting headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, while upgrading 2027 growth to 1.4%. Importantly for the EUR, the backdrop is giving the ECB room to remain restrictive. The latest activity data strengthen this case...We think this combination of firmer growth and above-target inflation should keep ECB expectations relatively hawkish and provide a floor for EUR/USD in October. EUR/USD’s post-hike pattern also points to some near-term consolidation," ANZ notes.

"Looking ahead, energy prices and French sovereign spreads will be critical. The 29 October ECB meeting will be the key domestic event. Stabilisation in OATs and an unwind of extended EUR shorts should provide some support to EUR. Overall, we are moderately constructive on EUR/USD in October. USD strength may limit the pace of gains, but domestic factors should favour a gradual recovery in EUR/USD," ANZ adds.

(Corrects NZD level in 2nd bullet)

• NZD/USD finishes Thur up 0.1% after testing key support zone near 0.5580

• Pair -6.4% since Aug 21, break below 0.5581 will hasten slide toward 0.5485

• Futures pricing currently implies 57.3% chance of RBNZ hike on Oct 28

• RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk panel discussion on monetary policy Fri

• DXY & UST yields softer, Fed's Waller flags more hikes (but pace flexible)

• Hurricane Isaias shutters some U.S. oil production, WTI up 3.4% to $91.25

• Trump rules out fresh attacks on Iran in lead up to U.S. midterm elections

• Range NZ 0.56029-041, support 0.5581 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD oscillates, but finishes Thur flat as DXY & UST yields soften

• Fed Governor Waller says more FFR hikes needed, but pace is flexible

• Hurricane Isaias shutters some U.S. oil production, WTI up 3.4% to $91.25

• Trump rules out fresh attacks on Iran in lead up to U.S. midterm elections

• RBA Sep meeting minutes due for release Tue, will be closely scrutinized

• AUD still entrenched in month-long downtrend, 0.6865 support the next target

• Overnight range 0.6933-73 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7052 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1185 then extended its overnight drop in early trading

• 1.1172 traded but bears ran out of gas as USD buying abated

• US yields turned lower to help drive broad-based USD selling

• Gold gains, silver's upward move, USD/CNH drop from its high reinforced USD sales

• EUR/USD hit 1.1226, sat near 1.1215 late in the session and traded up +0.16%

• Techs lean bearish; pair below 10-DMA & consolidating drop from Sept. 25 high

• Falling monthly RSI, widening Bolli bands adds to bearish signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses EUR/GBP outlook.

"The pound has strengthened sharply against the euro since the end of last month as the euro sell-off has broadened out. It has resulted in EUR/GBP falling from just above the 0.8600 to a fresh year-to-date low yesterday of 0.8448. EUR/GBP is moving back closer to levels that were in place prior to President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs announcement back in April of last year when it was trading between 0.8200 and 0.8400 between September 2024 and March 2025. Negative development in the euro-zone have boosted the relative appeal of the pound," MUFG notes.

"While fiscal concerns are also in focus in the UK with 10-year Gilt yields hitting their highest levels since prior to the Global Financial Crisis in 2007, they are not as acute as in France currently. Media reports have suggested that the Labour government is well aware of challenging global bond market conditions ahead of this month’s budget scheduled for 28^th October which is encouraging them to play it safe as they seek to limit the risk of negative market reaction. A development that would help to ease downside risks for the pound," MUFG adds. 

• NY opened near 0.6945 after AUD/USD fell overnight, the drop initially extended

• USD, US yields & USD/CNH gains helped AUD/USD fall to 0.6933

• USD selling emerged and US yields turned lower

• Gold added to gains while silver & copper lifted off their lows

• AUD/USD hit 0.6973 then neared 0.6960 late, it traded near flat in NY's afternoon

• Hold below the 10-DMA, consolidation, falling daily RSI are bearish tech signs
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses EUR outlook.

"Credit-Based Pressures on EUR Nearing Their Limit: Widening in OATs has outstripped fundamentals and the French presidential election is over six months away; fiscal trajectories elsewhere in Europe are more favourable; aggregate spreads entered the energy shock on firmer footing; growth is resilient; European banks are better capitalised to deal with sovereign bond stress now than in previous episodes; and the ECB if well-equipped with anti-fragmentation tools if necessary. EURUSD's range-break lower has likely exacerbated the move, and we view recent broad Dollar strength as likely to fade near term," GS notes.

"Divided Outlook on G10 Crosses: A more durable shift in ECB hike pricing may dampen the Euro’s recovery, and over longer horizons we think the outlook on G10 crosses remains heavily divided – we expect continued Euro downside versus high-carry energy exporters AUD and NOK, but argue the outlook is brighter versus CHF and GBP," GS adds.

EUR/USD remains under pressure as French government bond yields stay elevated amid fiscal and election worries. So far, the ECB has given no sign that it will step in to ease the selling pressure on those bonds. As a result, buyers are likely to stay on the sidelines rather than catch the falling knife. They may not return until the pair nears the 1.0500–1.0600 area or until concerns over France's fiscal and election outlook fade.

Technical signals suggest the downtrend can extend. RSIs and widening Bollinger Bands point to more volatility and continued downward momentum. The pair's ongoing consolidation of its drop from the September 25 high reinforces the bearish outlook, as does its hold below the declining 10- and 21-day moving averages. Sentiment also appears fragile hurt because rallies within the downtrend from the January 2026 high have been sold consistently.

EUR/USD is currently hovering above structural support in the 1.1050–1.1100 zone. This area contains a series of monthly highs and lows going back to 2023, as well as the 50% retracement of the February 2025 to January 2026 rally.

The more important level, however, is the 1.0500–1.0600 zone. Structural support sits near the psychological 1.0500 mark. The zone also contains the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0125–1.2084 rally and the base of the rising trend channel from the 2022 yearly low. Significant and sustained EUR/USD buying may therefore not appear until these levels are reached.
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Crédit Agricole CIB macro and rate strategists discuss different political scenarios ahead of the 2027 vote and complement their analysis by simulating the EUR impact under the different scenarios.

"Our results suggest that the EUR could recover under several scenarios including our baseline – eg, either an RN or centrist president coupled with either a centrist or RN majority in the legislature – and some more positive outcomes – eg, a centrist president with either a technocrat, centrist or RN government. We see the OAT, BTP and Bono yield spreads to Bunds tighten notably to push EUR/USD back towards 1.17 or higher, consistent with our current EUR/USD forecasts for 2027," CACIB notes.

"In contrast, should anti-establishment parties to the right or left of the French political spectrum end up controlling both the presidency and the legislature and are able to exercise fiscal restraint, our simulation results point at EUR/USD trading between 1.12 and 1.14.

The most EUR-negative outcomes involve a hung parliament accompanied by either policy paralysis or runaway fiscal deficit. We see EUR/USD falling towards 1.05 under these outcomes," CACIB adds.

Bank of America Global Research flags an important shift in Yen trading during Tokyo hours.

"The yen entered a depreciation cycle in 2021, with USD/JPY reaching 164 in July 2026. However, in our view, the nature of yen weakness changed in 2025. We examine the issue through the lens of intraday USD/JPY price action. From 2021 through 2024, the yen weakened during both Tokyo and offshore trading hours. By contrast, the depreciation from 2Q25 to 2Q26 was driven exclusively by offshore trading hours," BofA notes. 

"The stabilization of the yen during Tokyo hours is consistent with an improvement in Japan's balance of payments (BoP). By contrast, offshore-led yen weakness likely reflected the AI rally and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s still dovish policy stance. The offshore bias toward yen weakness has been subdued since the coordinated intervention in July and the market has shifted toward a strong USD and strong USD environment.

While it remains uncertain whether yen strength in cross-yen pairs will ultimately spill over into USD/JPY, we believe the risk-reward is skewed to the downside for the pair," BofA adds. 

• 1.1213 traded overnight, sellers emerged & EUR/USD then turned lower

• US & French yield gains weighed on EUR/USD

• The US yield gains helped drive USD buying which sank EUR/USD

• Rallies in oil , USD/CNH & drops in equities, silver added weight

• EUR/USD hit 1.1174 in early NY action, it traded down -0.18%

• Techs are bearish; RSIs falling, consolidation of drop from Sep. 25 high persists

• Widening Bolli bands, pair's hold below the 10-DMA reinforce bearish techs

• US jobless claims, US Treasury 30-year auction are risks in NY
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)