• AUD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.7068 high as markets recalibrate pre-RBA meeting

• Futures pricing currently implies 83.8% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Tue

• AUD break above 0.7072 55-DMA would pave way for challenge of 0.7140

• AU Q3 PPI due 0030 GMT, prior +1.3% q/q, +3.6% y/y

• Alphabet revenue miss, Amazon sales downgrade add to U.S. equity anxiety

• U.S. Sep core PCE +0.3% m/m (inline), Q3 GDP advance +3.4% y/y (poll 3.2%)

• Overnight range 0.70146-465 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The euro gained on Thursday after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged, as expected, but warned on energy-cost inflation risks, reinforcing bets for a December hike.

ECB policymakers are expected to hike rates in December before pausing as higher bond yields weigh on growth, sources told Reuters.

ECB President Christine Lagarde resigned and will step down on February 7.

The dollar was pressured by softer Treasury yields, lower oil prices amid peace-talk hopes, and Nasdaq weakness driven by AI spending concerns.

Yields fell despite US PCE inflation accelerating in September to 3.6% annualized, Q3 GDP beating forecasts and new jobless claims hovering near 57-year lows.

In geopolitics, Russian President Vladimir Putin supports restoring ties with Europe but is prepared for war if tensions escalate, though it wants to avoid conflict.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine has intelligence that Russia is planning new ballistic missile strikes and needs the means to counter them.

In a hopeful sign of improving relations, President Donald Trump, who has been engaged in a tariff war with Canada, told a rally that Canada has been "treating us extremely nicely recently".

His comments followed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying that the EU and Canada are continuing talks on Canada becoming the bloc's first associate member.

Sweden's parliament speaker said he has decided lawmakers will vote on Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist as prime minister although she has said earlier she has not been able to secure a majority.

The dollar was mostly lower, with large futures block trades pointing to month-end repositioning.

The pound and Swedish krona outperformed their G10 peers ahead of expected rate hikes by the Bank of England and Riksbank next week.

EUR/USD rebounded from a 17-month low at 1.1105 to 1.1173 as softer US yields offset the ECB hold, with scope for a short squeeze while support at 1.1105 holds.

GBP/USD climbed toward its 100-DMA at 1.3388, supported by BOE hike expectations and the UK's rate advantage, with the 50% retracement at 1.3406 in focus.

USD/JPY remained rangebound around 158 ahead of the BOJ, with nearby support at the 55-DMA of 157.62 and resistance at 158.44 cloud top and 158.55 200-DMA, with intervention risks likely to intensify on gains.

AUD/USD fell as risk assets and metals weakened, leaving techs mixed above the 0.70 level and below its 55- and 200-DMAs as a falling RSI weighs.

Treasury yields fell 4 to 8 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point to +33.0bp.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.54% as a drop in tech shares weighed.

WTI oil fell 0.68%, paring a steeper loss.

Gold slid 1.3% toward $4000/oz and copper dropped just over 1%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.08%, USD/JPY +0.06%, GBP/USD +0.25%, AUD/USD -0.34%, DXY -0.16%, EUR/JPY +0.15%, GBP/JPY +0.35%, AUD/JPY -0.26%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7040 after 0.7068 traded overnight, pair's slide then extended

• Soured risk weighed; gold, silver, stocks, copper sank which weighed on AUD/USD

• The pair pierced the 10-DMA, traded to 0.7015, buyers then emerged however

• USD selling took hold& yields added to earlier losses; 0.7041 was neared

• A slight pull back had AUD/USD near 0.7035 late, it traded down only -0.28%

• Techs are mixed; daily RSI is falling & AUD/USD holds below the 55- & 200-DMAs

• Rising monthly RSI, hold above the 10- & 21-DMAs give bulls some comfort
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs sees JPY as an attractive hedge to AI slowdown.

"Last week, USDJPY was the go-to instrument for FX and cross-asset clients who had exposure to AI Credit or Equities and needed structural hedges, with demand for 3m-6m downside binaries. FX will typically outperform on a cross-asset basis when you get higher recession risk, and JPY has a high beta within FX to an AI slowdown. Japan also owns $1.3trn of US Equities, which would be a second-order impact supporting this trade," GS notes.

"More generally, currencies that have more to come out in terms of rate hike premium are going to do worse relative to those that don't have much in already – EURAUD works on this front, and it has also crossed the multi-year technical break at 1.60," GS adds.

• Ether fell below the 38.2% Fib of 1510.95-2805.45 earlier in the session

• Traded down to a 5-session low of 2292.26, buyers then emerged however

• Ether turned positive, neared 2365.00 after Europe's close, was up +0.28%

• Drops in US yields and USD selling helped lift Ether off the low

• Bitcoin's sharp rally off its low, positive turn contributed to Ether's buoyancy

• Ether's price action has daily techs flashing warnings to Ether bears

• Daily RSI diverged on the low & is rising, daily bull hammer candle formed

• Ether still traded within its recent consolidations range however

• Break & sustained hold above 10-DMA, 2400/2415 could lead to a short squeeze
eth

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the October BoJ decision on Friday.

"We expect the BoJ to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.25% and maintain our view that the next rate hike will come in December.

The BoJ is likely to judge, for the first time since the price stability target was introduced in 2013, that underlying inflation is around 2%," MS notes.

(removes link in 2nd bullet)

• Euro dips after ECB rate hold, with EUR/GBP down to 0.8347

• 0.8347 is new 18-month low (0.8355 was low before ECB rate hold)

• Bids likely around 0.8333 and 0.8300, including corporate interest

• 0.8333 equates to GBP/EUR 1.20. Cross last at 0.8300 in March 2025

• News briefing from outgoing ECB chief Lagarde starts at 1345 GMT

• BoE rate decision next week (Nov 5); 25 bps hike to 4% expected

EURGBP

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan on USD/JPY into the October BoJ decision on Friday.

"USD/JPY's stubbornness in the high 150s reflects a tug-of-war between a firm policy ceiling and fading yield support, rather than any single dominant driver...The October BoJ meeting is unlikely to be the catalyst that breaks this range, even as the Bank formally claims a historic milestone. Per Reuters, the BoJ is set to acknowledge in its Outlook Report that it has hit the 2% inflation target for the first time in nearly 14 years — but we expect this to validate the September hike and underpin a quarterly tightening cadence rather than spur back-to-back moves, as the BoJ will want time to assess policy transmission before acting again," JPM notes.

"Because a quarterly pace of rate hikes is already priced into the OIS curve, confirmation alone is unlikely to lift terminal pricing, and the Bank's reluctance to signal consecutive hikes could cap more aggressive tightening bets — leaving limited scope for material JPY appreciation out of the October MPM, and leaves the currency more exposed to global risk and rates development," JPM adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews the October BoJ meeting on Friday.

"We expect the BoJ Policy Board to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.25% at the 29-30 October Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM). The most likely vote is 8-1, with board member Takata casting the lone dissent in favor of a hike. In the Outlook Report, we expect the board to judge, for the first time, that "underlying inflation" has reached the 2% target," BofA notes.

"But the BoJ has already shifted to a policy stance that assumes underlying inflation is near 2% and places greater weight on preventing an overshoot. Rather than signaling a further acceleration in hikes, the Outlook Report and Governor Ueda's press conference should reinforce expectations for continued quarterly hikes, with the next move likely in December," BofA adds.

• EUR/GBP eyes 0.8361 (this week's 17-month low) as Lagarde exit news digested

• European Central Bank chief Lagarde will step down from her role on Feb 7

• ECB rate hold expected at 1315 GMT; Lagarde briefing starts at 1345 GMT

• Euro could weaken if Lagarde is relatively dovish; 0.8333 is EUR/GBP bear target

• 0.8333 = GBP/EUR 1.20. UK will reduce "unsustainable" welfare costs, Healey says

• UK lenders approve fewest mortgages since 2023 as borrowing costs rise

EURGBP

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Oct 29 (Reuters) - EUR/USD could be on the verge of a much bigger slump in coming sessions to new 2026 lows.

The euro was steady on Thursday ahead of a policy decision from the European Central Bank, where the focus will be on the bond market selloff in France. The ECB is set to keep interest rates on hold in a well-telegraphed decision that is likely to be overshadowed by questions about France and ECB President Christine Lagarde's own future.

There is scope for eventual EUR/USD losses, sending the pair below the 2026 low at 1.1113 posted on October 14, especially as the negative 14-day momentum reading is reinforcing the overall bearish structure. A break below the 1.1113 low would weaken the market further and unlock the 1.1000 psychological level for a retest.

Note that EUR/USD's multiple recent failures above the 1.1254 level, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1711 to 1.1113 (August to October) fall, seem to have trapped bulls. A "bull trap" is set when a market breaks above a technical level but subsequently reverses, and is usually a bearish sign.
Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD tests 0.7036 (ex-resistance level) after extending south from 0.7068

• 0.7036 was last week's high. 0.7068 was five-week high in Asia

• Fed awaits 'accumulation of more information'

• US Sept PCE and advance Q3 GDP data is due at 1230 GMT

• Core PCE forecast up 0.3% MM, 3.1% YY. GDP forecast up 3.2%

• RBA rate decision next week: markets see 83% chance of hike

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Repeats without changes)

EUR/USD heads into the October 29 ECB decision with bearish positioning stretched and downside momentum showing signs of fatigue near key chart support.

The ECB is widely expected to leave its key rate at 2.5% at 1315 GMT, leaving the market reaction largely dependent on President Christine Lagarde's guidance, particularly whether she keeps a December rate rise firmly in play amid renewed concern over French bond-market turmoil.

Speculators are reportedly short euros equivalent to $19 billion, the largest bearish bet since 2015. That leaves the single currency vulnerable to a sharp short-covering rebound if Lagarde sounds sufficiently hawkish, especially with markets assigning a 65% probability to a December ECB hike. Low one-month EUR/USD implied volatility of about 5.8 also suggests traders may be underestimating event risk.

EUR/USD has repeatedly found support around 1.1100, near the 200-week moving average at 1.1108 and the 50% retracement of the 1.0125–1.2084 advance at 1.1105. Holding above that area could pave the way for a rebound towards 1.1200 and 1.1254 despite the broader corrective trend.

Conversely, a cautious tone from Lagarde or escalating concerns over France's fiscal position could put 1.1105 under pressure and trigger deeper losses. However, narrowing US–German 10-year yield spreads (20 bps tighter in October) may help limit downside and support a corrective euro recovery.

The target for a corrective bounce is 1.1341, while a sustained break below 1.1100 would bring 1.0873 into focus.
EURUSD drop stretched, targets should pair bounce


EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds above 1.3300 after dollar's dip on relatively dovish Warsh

• Two-year UST yields down to 4.68% in Asia vs 4.78% high Wednesday, pre-Fed

• GBP/USD was sub-1.33 before Wednesday's low-key UK budget

• US Sept core PCE data due at 1230 GMT; 0.3% MM, 3.1% YY forecast

• Biggest market impact of US midterms may be 2028 countdown

• Seven Fed policy meetings scheduled for 2027; six in 2028 (vs eight this year)

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia after trading in a 1.3274-1.33385 range on Wed

• Dropped to 1.3306 from 1.3329 New York close before rallying to 1.3335

• Supported by decline in US yields; 10 and 30-yr yields drop 5 bps in Asia

• Buoyed by Fed's patient stance on rates as it awaits further inflation data

• UK budget seen as fiscally credible but largely taken in stride

• US GDP, PCE data Thu in focus; US midterms, BoE rate decision next week key

• Consolidation in 1.3275-1.3400 range likely as risk events loom

• Support 1.3305, stronger at 1.3275-85, resistance 1.3350, 1.3390-1.3400
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat in Asia but holding higher platform, upside potential growing

• AUD targets 0.7072 55-DMA, break would open topside toward 0.7140 resistance

• U.S. core PCE index due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y

• RBA Governor Bullock comments that inflation far too high stoking AUD buyers

• Futures pricing currently implies 79.7% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Tue

• Range Asia 0.70475-68 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Australia's Tesoro Gold decline as much as 9.2% to A$0.735, hitting their lowest level since mid-September 2025

• Shares mark their biggest intraday pct drop since June 11

• The gold explorer discloses A$40 million ($28.24 million) placement at A$0.73 per share, a 9.9% discount to company's last close on October 27

• Says proceeds will be used to advance resource growth and development activities at its El Zorro gold project in Chile

• Adds unit to acquire Inversiones Marlin Limitada's 5% stake in Tesoro Mining Chile SpA, via which company holds interest in El Zorro, thus increasing ownership of the project to 95.4%

• More than 255,000 shares change hands, about 1.5x the 30-day average

• YTD, stock down 39.3%, including session's moves

($1 = 1.4162 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Thur, activity subdued as tide of central bank influence ebbs

• AUD targets 0.7072 55-DMA, break would open topside to 0.7140 resistance

• AU Q3 export prices +1.4% (prior +1.1%), import prices -1.1% (prior +5.7%)

• U.S. core PCE index due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y

• RBA Governor Bullock says inflation far too high, flags higher OCR

• Futures pricing currently implies 81.6% probability of 25 bps RBA hike Tue

• Range Asia 0.70475-575 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY traded a 157.65-158.35 EBS range yesterday into/post-FOMC

• Fed held rates as is as generally expected, says awaiting more data

• Economic assessment raised however, suggests hike in December likely

• USD/JPY inside day so far ahead of BOJ tomorrow, 157.70-85 so far

• BOJ hawkish hold eyed, bar high for even more hawkish take

• Japanese exporter offers eyed above 158.00, importer demand into Tokyo fix

• Technically, USD/JPY ensconced in 156.42-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud

• At top of ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 157.32-77

• Support from flattening 200-HMA near top of cloud at 157.70, 100-HMA 157.45

• Large option expiries mostly to downside today, more supportive than not

• 158.85-95 $1.3 bln, 157.00-05 $1.7 bln, 157.15-31 $310 mln

• Also 157.50-75 $764 mln, above 157.90 $940 mln, 158.50 $661 mln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials tad wider, in 2s @285, 10s @220 bps

• Related comments , , ,

• Also ,

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed , , , ,

• And , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/NZD finished +1.4% Wed after simultaneous divergence between RBA & RBNZ

• Pair is +17.7% from its 1.0652 Apr 2025 low, with the rally re-accelerating

• RBNZ's shock hold undermines NZD just as the RBA is upping hawkish rhetoric

• While both central banks are in a hiking cycle, RBNZ has ceded credibility

• AUD/NZD remains a 'buy the dip' scenario, 1.2270 zone a significant support

• Range Asia 1.2524-44, support 1.2269 1.2141 1.1912, resistance 1.2678
AUDNZD Daily Fibonacci Study


AUDNZD Monthly

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD +0.8% from Wed 0.55831 low, but remains well off pre-RBNZ levels

• Wed's remarkably hawkish OCR hold has investors contemplating future hikes

• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman says OCR to rise higher than previous path

• Futures pricing now implies 74.4% probability of Dec 9 RBNZ hike

• NZD sellers likely ahead of 0.5637 21-DMA, break above may flip narrative

• FOMC holds FFR steady while acknowledging that inflation remains elevated

• U.S. core PCE index due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y

• Range NZ 0.5611-385, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research reviews today's October FOMC decision and press conference.

"The Fed left policy rates unchanged at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, in line with consensus and our expectations. Two members dissented, voting in favour of a rate hike. Even though the market reaction was to the dovish side, we read Warsh's comments on the economic outlook as hawkish," Danske notes.

"Therefore, we think the case for further hikes remains strong, and we maintain our call for two 25bp hikes at the December and March meetings. We see risks tilted towards more than two hikes," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD +0.4% late Wed, breaks above 0.7056 200-DMA & touches 5-week high

• Pair approaching 0.7072 55-DMA, breach would reset topside target to 0.7140

• FOMC stands pat on FFR while acknowledging that inflation remains elevated

• RBA Governor Bullock says inflation too high, indicates incoming rate hike

• Futures pricing implies 84.8% chance of Nov RBA hike, Fed Dec hike at 85.3%

• U.S. core PCE index due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y

• Overnight range 0.70239-645 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7140 0.7282
AUD 21/55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar held firm after the Fed's expected hawkish hold, but later turned lower as Chair Kevin Warsh unveiled a new meeting schedule and said inflation expectations were moving in the right direction.

The FOMC held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote and kept the door open to further tightening amid strong growth and elevated inflation.

DXY was eyeing its 21-DMA at 102.02 after being up marginally prior to the Fed announcement, supported by month-end flows, rising Treasury yields and firmer oil prices.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada increased its target rate to 2.5%, as expected and raised growth and inflation forecasts, with Governor Tiff Macklem seeing less room for monetary accommodation.

UK finance minister John Healey's budget offered household and business support while seeking to limit bond market strain.

Iran's foreign minister said Tehran remains in contact with mediators on a proposal to end the Middle East war.

EUR/USD held firm above 1.11 on month-end demand, EUR/JPY strength and USD/CNH weakness, with a daily doji and RSI divergence pointing to scope for a short-covering bounce.

GBP/USD held a modest bid above 1.33 and its nearby 21-DMA after a largely market-friendly UK Budget, with focus turning to US data and the Nov. 5 BoE meeting.

USD/JPY edged up after the Fed's expected hold, with a break above 158.44 cloud resistance and the 200-DMA at 158.55 opening scope for further gains, while a drop below the 21-DMA at 157.95 shifts focus to 157.03 lower Bollinger.

AUD/USD remained constructive above its 21-DMA and 100-DMA, with bullish momentum indicators supporting gains as it nears an upper Bollinger and 200-DMA around 0.7055.

Treasury yields turned mixed after Warsh as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve jumped 7 basis points to 33.8bp.

The S&P 500 was nearly flat.

WTI oil rose nearly 3% on supply and geopolitical concerns.

Gold slid 0.37% while copper was down marginally.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.36%, USD/JPY -0.08%, GBP/USD +0.11%, AUD/USD +0.47%, DXY -0.20%, EUR/JPY +0.29%, GBP/JPY +0.12%, AUD/JPY +0.40%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)