Societe Generale Research maintains a neutral structural bias on EUR/CHF through year-end.
"Until spring 2020, EUR/CHF moves below 1.10 triggered SNB FX intervention. Since then, the evolution of Swiss banks’ sight deposits suggests that the central bank has been more sensitive to volatility than to the franc’s level, although a fall to 1.05 would be a serious concern," SocGen notes.
"Since April, EUR/CHF has tracked EUR/USD. If the beta in this relationship continues to hold this year, EUR/USD moving towards our forecasted peak above 1.25 will not involve a EUR/CHF break above 1.10. All in all, the pair is unlikely to venture outside of the 1.05-1.10 range," SocGen adds.