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Oct 23 - 04:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-US Recap: EUR/USD Rises As Dollar Relinquishes Safe-Haven Gains Late

By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 23 - 02:35 PM

The dollar eased late on Friday, tracking Treasury yields lower and relinquishing gains scored when optimism over a pre-election relief bill faded nL1N2HE0ZNnW1N2G500I.

In a mixed day for risk sentiment, progress toward a Brexit deal nL8N2HC5HN was overshadowed by troubling pandemic news nL8N2HD65TnL8N2HD4J9.

EUR/USD managed modest gains, mostly on the sizeable EUR/GBP rise following the UK's downside PMI miss nL8N2HE2RD versus a roughly on-forecast euro zone PMI composite nL8N2HE2KA, even though Britain's reading remained in expansion above 50 while Europe contracted.

EUR/USD found good technical support in its earlier dip to the 10-day moving average nL1N2HE0R5, but hasn't been able to clear this week's high due to some risk aversion demand for the dollar, despite the above-forecast U.S. Markit PMI composite reading of 55.5 versus 54.3 in September nZON000NXF.

Ten-year Treasury yields were on track to end a six-session rise, a move that has become overbought with pandemic relief still uncertain.

Sterling was whipped around by the UK PMI miss then a fleeting spike to the 1.3122 session high on a report of potential compromise on EU-UK fishing rights nL8N2HE1RB, a key Brexit issue.

That was followed by a rapid slide to session lows nL1N2HE0QW by the 55-day moving average at 1.3018, which it had vaulted above during Wednesday's wild advance.

Wednesday's 1.3177 high and October peak completed a 61.8% Fibo of September's slide at 1.3173 before beginning a retreat before the weekend.

USD/JPY was a shade lower, but the two havens -- dollar and yen -- seem to have found some stability in the 104.00s yet again.
Early losses were reduced by the risk-off dollar demand in U.S. trade nL1N2HE0XX.
The 104.93 high on EBS retraced 50% of Wednesday's tumble, but the bigger hurdles are by 105.05.
September's 104 low is now key support.

High beta currencies were little changed after a flat finish for USD/CNY.
AUD/USD's overnight rally after decent PMI data nZRN00099D was roundly rejected by the falling 30-day moving average, tucked below the cloud base and downtrend line from September.

Oil fell under the weight of rebounding Libyan oil supply after a truce between warring factions and general unease about demand during the ongoing pandemic and with doubts about when more U.S. fiscal relief might arrive.

The BOJ and ECB meet next week, but neither is expected to change policy, though hints at future easing will be watched.
Q3 GDP estimates for Europe and the U.S. come out on Friday.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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