• Dollar steadies as traders question prospects for near-term ceasefire

• USD/JPY has seen a 159.95-160.38 range, on Friday, according to EBS data

• That after spot staged a partial recovery on Thursday after slumping to 159.51

• Thursday's losses induced dip buyers, above Thursday's 160.59 high would be bullish

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY crashes below +0.5 (relationship breaks down)

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

June 12 (Reuters) - There are several reasons why EUR/USD could be set for a bigger recovery and FX traders can use a simple option strategy to capture potential gains. Thursday's candlestick left a long tail, pointing to a rejection of the downside. This suggests scope for initial gains to 1.1633 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 1.1849 to 1.1500 (April to June) EBS fall. Downside momentum also failed to sustain breaks on Monday and Thursday below the 1.1513 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of 1.1409 to 1.1849 (March to April) rise. This raises the risk of a bear trap - when a market breaks below a technical level but then reverses, usually a bullish sign.

Seasonality is another support. EUR/USD has risen in 16 of the last 26 years, so a close above this month's 1.1655 open would reinforce that pattern. Those looking to position for the upside can buy a one-week 1.1570 call option for 40 pips, priced with spot at 1.1564. Profit potential is unlimited if spot rises above the 1.1610 break-even point before the June 19 expiry. Losses are limited to the premium paid.
Daily Chart


Fenics Pricing Grid


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD has traded a 29.5 pip range thus far Friday; 0.7024-0.70535

• The top of that range is 1.5 pips shy of Thursday's two-day high

• Thursday peak was scaled as safe-haven USD fell after Trump cancelled strikes on Iran

• 0.6979 was two-month low before the planned strikes were cancelled

• Trump says Iran war deal close. RBA rate hold expected next week (Tuesday)

• CFTC data at 1930 GMT to show if net AUD long shrank again in week to June 9

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 29 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3397-1.3426

• The top of that range is 7.5 pips shy of Thursday's intra-week high

• Thursday peak was scaled as safe-haven dollar fell after Trump cancelled strikes on Iran

• 1.3325 was three-day low for GBP/USD before the planned strikes were cancelled

• Trump says Iran war deal close. UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April, as expected

• Healey's surprise resignation fuels questions about UK PM Starmer's future

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian mining stocks rise as much as 4%, hitting its biggest intraday pct gain since April 8

• Sub-index touches its highest level since June 5

• Benchmark up 1.9%

• Miners surge on the back of firm copper prices amid easing oil prices and hopes that a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is nearing an end [MET/L]

• Heavyweights BHP Group and Rio Tinto jump 3.4% and 2.9%, respectively

• YTD, AXMM up 16.7%, AXJO flat
(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY gains 0.2% in Asia as Trump-Iran back-and-forth adds to uncertainty

• Supported by strong demand below 160.00 and conflicting Iran deal headlines

• Opened at 159.995, rallied steadily, traded in a 159.95-160.31

• Traders cautious ahead of next week's risk events

• BOJ rate decision Tue, hawkish 25 bps hike to 31-year high likely

• Fed decision Wed, statement key; G-7 summit in France June 15-17

• Japanese intervention threat likely to cap dollar below 160.60-70

• Support 159.75-80, 159.50
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Fri as positive impact from U.S.-Iran peace progress fades

• Trump talks up peace deal prospects after pausing planned attacks on Iran

• Iranian sources confirm intensified effort towards reaching preliminary deal

• AUD unlikely to extend topside move beyond 0.7080 resistance

• RBA policy meeting outcome due Tue, no change to 4.35% OCR expected

• Range Asia 0.7030-535, support 0.6834, resistance 0.7080 0.7200 0.7283
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks rise 5.3%, on track for best day since April 8 if gains hold

• Sub-index rises after five straight sessions of losses

• Bullion prices jumped on Thursday with U.S. President Donald Trump calling off planned military strikes on Iran eased fears of oil-driven inflation and elevated interest rates [GOL/]

• Sector heavyweights Northern Star Resources adds 4.7% while Evolution Mining gains 6.2%

• AXGD down 4.2% this week; loses 18.9% on YTD-basis including current moves
(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY rallies 0.15% in Asia after closing 0.4% lower on Thursday

• Sharp lower U.S. yields, decline in oil prices on Iran deal optimism weigh

• Trump said US and Iran could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend

• But Iran says no final decision has been made on a possible agreement

• Conflicting reports likely to keep USD range bound ahead of weekend

• Cautious trading ahead of risk events next week likely

• BO rate decision Tue, 25bps hike expected; Fed decision Wed, statement key

• Japanese intervention threat likely to cap dollar below 160.50

• Support 159.75-80, 159.50; Thu range 159.51-160.595, Asia 159.95-160.20
US Inflation gauges

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD +1.1% from Thur 0.5770 low as hopes for Iran peace deal escalate

• Iranian sources confirm efforts to reach preliminary deal are intensifying

• Trump claims peace deal close after cancelling planned strikes on Iran

• DXY -0.4%, Brent crude -4.2% & U.S. equities climb as risk sentiment lifts

• U.S. initial jobless claims 229k (poll 219k), May PPI +1.1% m/m (poll 0.7%)

• NZ May manufacturing PMI 49.9 (prior 50.5), elec card retail sales due Mon

• NZD pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, needs further catalyst to extend

• Range NZ 0.5819-43, support 0.5680 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012
NZD Daily 55-DMA


NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD +0.7% from Thur 1.1503 low as ECB hikes & Middle East tensions ease

• ECB raises interest rates 25 bps in response to Iran-war driven inflation

• Trump cancels attacks on Iran, claims peace deal could be signed shortly

• Iranian sources flag intensified efforts to reach preliminary deal

• DXY -0.4%, Brent crude -4.2% to $89.20 a barrel as risk appetite improves

• U.S. initial jobless claims 229k (poll 219k), May PPI +1.1% m/m (poll 0.7%)

• EUR pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, progress higher likely to slow

• Overnight range 1.1503-90, support 1.1500 1.1409, resistance 1.1850 1.1930
EUR Daily 55-DMA


US Inflation Studies


EUR Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research discusses GBP outlook ahead of next Thursday's June BoE meeting.

"The upcoming Makerfield by-election on 18 June is the next key event for UK's political and fiscal outlook. There are many scenarios, but if Andy Burnham were to win, he would be eligible to stand in a Labour leadership contest, in which a Survation poll indicates he is favourite to win. A loss for Burnham could mean either status quo or a leadership challenge with an alternative candidate standing from the soft left. Political/policy uncertainty can weigh on growth," BofA notes.

"GBP vol premium remains muted with front-end vol being driven by the BoE rate decision and the proximity of the FOMC. Vol remains the best vehicle to express political concerns. We remain short EUR/GBP, but the case for hedging with long vega positions seems prudent. In rates, we look for 2s10s curve steepening in Gilts. At the front, pricing implies more than our base case of two Bank Rate hikes to terminal, leaving room to rally. Failure by the MPC to validate the hiking path (as currently priced in) at next Thursday's meeting should reinforce the steepener. Further out, the long-end should trade sensitively to political risks into the by-election," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD +1.0% from Thur 0.6979 low after U.S. cancels strikes on Iran

• Iranian sources say work towards preliminary deal with U.S. has intensified

• Trump claims that peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend

• U.S. initial jobless claims 229k (poll 219k), May PPI +1.1% m/m (poll 0.7%)

• RBA policy meeting outcome due Tue, no change to 4.35% OCR anticipated

• AUD pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, buying may dissipate ahead 0.7080

• Overnight range 0.6979-0.7055, support 0.6834, resistance 0.7080 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA


US Initial Jobless Claims

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar fell after President Donald Trump scrapped planned U.S. strikes on Iran, citing regionally backed talks with Tehran, allowing the euro to recover after an expected rate hike by European Central Bank. ECB policymakers see holding rates steady in July if energy prices stay near current levels, sources told Reuters, though they remain open to further tightening if inflation stays high. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted broadening of inflation throughout the economy, adding that risks to growth are to the downside. The dollar was initially supported by yield curve flattening after a hot PPI and renewed Middle East concerns following

Trump’s threat of a "hard" strike on Iran.

U.S. highlights on Friday include the University of Michigan report and SpaceX IPO. EUR/USD swung on U.S. data and wider spreads before rebounding with improved risk, but momentum remains mixed below key DMAs. Sterling gained on an improved risk tone after Trump scrapped Iran strikes, but remains rangebound with BoE hike expectations intact and support near 1.33. USD/JPY held in a range above 160 as softer yields and positioning limit the upside, while rising moving averages and nearby Tenkan sen at 159.95 lend support. AUD/USD bounced from early losses to reclaim its lower Bollinger band alongside metals and equities, with improving technicals pointing to a cautiously bullish bias. USD/CAD briefly topped 1.40 after Canada’s trade minister Dominic LeBlanc said bilateral deals with the U.S. will accompany a review of the trilateral pact.

Treasury yields fell 6 to 8 basis points. The 2s-10s curve slipped about 1 basis point to +38.9bp.

The S&P 500 rose 1.5%.

WTI oil slid just over 2%

Gold rose 2.3% while copper gained 1.7%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.3%, USD/JPY -0.32%, GBP/USD +0.35%, AUD/USD +0.62%, DXY -0.2%, EUR/JPY -0.08%, GBP/JPY -0.03%, AUD/JPY +0.14%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• Shares of gold miners rise as bullion prices extend gains after U.S. President Donald Trump announces cancellation of strikes against Iran [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 2% at $4,154.64/ounce

• Top miners Newmont and Barrick Mining up 4.7% and 2.4%, respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African miners: Gold Fields , Harmony Gold and AngloGold Ashanti rise between 4.8% and 6.2%

• Canadian miners: Agnico Eagle Mines up 1.2% and Kinross Gold rise 2.4%

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

Danske Research previews next week's June BoE meeting.

"Hiking rates will have to be weighed against a considerable risk of exacerbating a looming economic contraction. We think it is most likely the BoE will remain sidelined for the foreseeable future, but the vote split could soon be back where only a slim majority stands in the way of hiking rates, " Danske notes.

"Market reaction. We will keep a close eye on the updated views of MPC members and the vote split, The relatively weak UK growth outlook and our dovish stance on BoE compared to market pricing weighs on our GBP call. We forecast EUR/GBP to move higher towards 0.89 on a 6–12-month horizon," Danske adds.

Despite the ECB delivering a 25bps rate hike and raising its inflation outlook — events that would typically be bullish for the euro — EUR/USD failed to respond positively, raising serious concerns for investors positioned for a rally. The muted reaction stems largely from ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference, where she noted that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored around the 2.0% target. Combined with the ECB's downwardly revised growth forecasts, this prompted investors to scale back expectations for further rate hikes, pushing euro zone yields lower.

This shift weighed heavily on the rate differential picture, with U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads widening in the dollar's favor. These spreads are now approaching a key support level, and a break below it could add further bearish pressure on EUR/USD.

The technical backdrop is equally discouraging for bulls. The pair's bounce off the June 8 low looks corrective rather than impulsive, and EUR/USD continues to trade below its falling 10- and 21-day moving averages. The recent breach of the uptrend line from the March low, a head and shoulders topping pattern on the monthly chart, and a declining monthly RSI all reinforce the bearish outlook.

Given these fundamental and technical headwinds, a test of the 1.1400–1.1450 support zone appears increasingly likely, and a break of that level could trigger a sharp and sustained move lower.
eurusd


deus


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan Research previews next week's June BoJ policy meeting.

"The BoJ is highly likely to raise the policy rate by 25bp to 1.0% at next week's monetary policy meeting, in our view. In April, uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict tilted the BoJ toward holding rates, and that uncertainty has not fully dissipated. That said, incoming data and information point to a resilient economy and rising upside risks to inflation," JPM notes.

"Markets are increasingly concerned that the BoJ is behind the curve. The BoJ will likely try to deliver a hawkish message to alleviate these concerns, with Governor Ueda likely to refer to the possibility of additional rate hikes at the press conference. However, since markets have already priced in further tightening, the hurdle for the BoJ's messaging to be perceived as hawkish is high," JPM. adds.

Sterling is poised for continued downside pressure against the U.S. dollar in the near term, as a confluence of geopolitical anxieties, domestic headwinds, and monetary policy divergence weigh on GBP/USD.

The recent shift to the lower end of its 1.33-1.35 range reflects heightened Middle East uncertainties, with the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff casting a shadow despite discussions of a potential agreement. The ambiguity surrounding whether any deal would involve Iran relinquishing nuclear material adds to the caution. Beyond near-term geopolitical noise, structural headwinds for cable endure. The UK's political, fiscal, and economic landscape — characterised by inflationary pressures and sluggish growth — continues to weigh on sterling. The monetary policy convergence between the BoE and the Fed represents the more consequential driver. Although the BoE is expected to deliver modest rate increases of around 50-basis points in 2026, recent communications from BoE officials signal a cautious, data-dependent approach, with policymakers awaiting clearer evidence on second-round inflation before accelerating tightening.

This measured stance stands in contrast to decidedly more hawkish Fed expectations, underpinned by persistent U.S. inflation — a dynamic likely to cap GBP/USD gains even if a definitive Middle East peace deal is announced.

Technically, resistance for GBP/USD is identified at the daily cloud base around 1.3409 and the flat 200-DMA at 1.3419. More significant resistance lies in the 1.3500/09 region, marking late-May highs. Support is anticipated around recent lows at 1.33, with the 100-WMA at 1.3184 offering further downside protection, having tracked the price since early March 2025.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs flags downside risks for EUR and prefers shorts on the EUR crosses.

"We think EUR-x shorts are going to be back on the agenda at some point soon, with EUR/CHF a very valid candidate. You have an ECB now that is going to be reluctant to hike, and hiking into a growth slowdown, and EUR is a currency that the market likes to attack from a positioning standpoint when you are hiking into that kind of slowdown," GS notes.

"On a longer-term basis, the other side of that trade is probably going to be an EM currency, but if you had to choose something in the G10 space to go against a EUR short, it would probably be long AUD or long NZD. A final point is on short NOKSEK structures: it is something being traded actively at the moment, given the downside optionality there - in cash, there has been adding back to this move above parity," GS adds.

HSBC Research discusses EUR outlook and sees growing downside risks.

"EUR-USD has proved relatively steady despite geopolitical angst. We still see scope for a modest move higher towards 1.18, but the support is narrow: risk appetite is doing most of the heavy lifting and the market remains anchored on near-term ECB hikes. That combination can hold in benign conditions, yet energy remains the near-term risk. Anoth oil or gas squeeze would quickly reopen the EUR's terms-of-trade vulnerability," HSBC notes.

"Further out, the balance of risks still leans against sustained EUR strength. A deteriorating export engine weakens fundamental EUR support, while political risk could rotate back to Europe as the April 2027 French election approaches. Put simply: the EUR can stay stable while the world is co-operative, but it's likely to underperform if energy tightens, growth softens, or markets start pricing earlier-than-anticipated ECB easing in 2027," HSBC adds.

• AUD/USD rallied to 0.7012 overnight, sellers then emerged & the pair turned lower

• The pair fell despite rallies in gold, silver, equities & a drop in US yields

• Broad based USD buying weighed and sent AUD/USD down to 0.6987

• NY opened near 0.6995, AUD/UDS traded down -0.03% in early action

• The pair traded below the 61.8% Fib of 0.6834-0.7277 rally & trend line off Dec. 18 low

• Falling monthly RSI, June price drop following May doji are bearish tech signals

• US jobless claims, May PPI final demand are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options are forward-looking and thrive on FX volatility and any shifts in directional outlooks

• Recent price action in AUD/USD options suggest growing angst from participants on both measures

• Comes amid Inflation concerns, falling stocks and Mid East conflict escalation

• Implied volatility has increased - benchmark 1-month expiry is up almost 1.0 since Fri's NFP beat to 8.25

• Contract now sits above 1-month daily realised volatility 7.75 - often used as a fair value measure

• 1-week implied vol spikes as June 17 Fed enters expiry window, signalling elevated realised volatility risks

• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals have doubled to 1.2 AUD puts over calls since late May

• That's the highest downside over upside strike AUD/USD volatility risk premium since April
AUDUSD 1M VOL


AUD/USD 25 delta risk reversals


1-week expiry FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Long gamma positioning could turn short if and when 161.00 barriers/triggers are taken out - dealers warn

• Long gamma is suppressing option implied volatility and helping to restrict actual/realised volatility

• A shift to short gamma would see those with exposure needing to buy spot and volatility would typically increase

• Recent sessions have seen increased demand for option strikes above 161.00 and even 162.00

• They would benefit from a topside breakout and increased volatility - realised and implied

• Demand for such options would suggest traders are hedging for a higher BoJ intervention threshold

• USD/JPY upside remains hard fought, but BoJ and Fed policy meetings add another layer of risk next week
JPY=EBS


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)