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May 25 - 05:00 PM

AUD/USD - Bullish Signals, But Tread With Caution

By Richard Pace  —  May 25 - 05:20 AM
  • AUD/USD 21-dma 0.6492 now passing above 100-dma 0.6491 - bullish sign

  • AUD/USD slipped from Wed's 0.6616 recovery high, bases 0.6495 Monday

  • Long with tight stops prudent, break/close below dma target 15 May low .6402

  • AU Trade worries with China likely to limit upside however

  • Mon/Fri/Thurs/Wed highs 0.6550/72/99/0.6616 all now resistance levels

  • AUD correlation with stocks also works against recovery as S&P falters at 3k

  • 1-month implied volatility hit new crisis lows 10.6 Thurs, regains 11.5 now

  • Shows options wary of more volatility - usually coincides with AUD losses


AUD=D3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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