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Jun 18 - 09:55 AM

Bank of America: US Investors Almost Uniformly Bearish on Europe and EUR

By eFXdata  —  Jun 18 - 09:15 AM

Bank of America Global Research summarizes the key notes from its latest meetings with US investors.

"US investors appear almost uniformly bearish on Europe. They see limited progress on structural reforms, are underwhelmed by the impact of Germany's fiscal stimulus so far, and view Europe as highly exposed to energy disruptions and competition from China. They see scope for the Fed to be repriced higher, but view ECB hikes as either "risk management" or a potential "policy mistake". In FX, bearishness on EUR is similar to what we observed in February 2025, although positioning appears to lag," BofA notes.

"We also expect relative data to continue weighing on EURUSD over the summer and see scope for further Fed repricing. Over the medium term, however, we maintain a bullish EURUSD bias. A viable Iran peace deal would reduce uncertainty and lower energy prices. This summer could mark the peak of US-Euro area growth divergence, in line with our economists' base case. We also see a low bar for positive surprises around European reforms and German fiscal policy. That said, we share concerns around next year's European elections," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research

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