• AUD/USD improves slightly on hawkish RBA dialogue, but remains -0.15% Wed

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser says upside inflation risks may trigger OCR hike

• Markets unconvinced RBA will be able to hike as economic headwinds build

• Strait of Hormuz access remains restricted despite Trump claiming otherwise

• Oil supply concerns continue to re-escalate, Brent crude +0.7% to $91.67

• AU Jul jobs update Thur, Reuters poll consensus +15k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Range Asia 0.7069-885 support 0.6920 0.6866 0.6834, resistance 0.7130 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/CAD -0.1% in Asia after Trump pauses tariffs against Canada for 3 days

• Says Canada and U.S. have a deal subject to finalisation of documents

• CAD likely to test 1.3845 Mon high which was its highest in more than 2 mths

• Higher oil prices, waning Sep Fed rate hike expectations underpin CAD

• Break extends to 1.3815-20, followed by 1.3770, the May 29 low

• Resistance 1.3905-10,1.3955-60; Tue range 1.3862-1.3910, Asia 1.3872-1.3907
CAD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Wed as oil supply concerns continue to re-escalate

• AU Q2 wage price index +0.8% q/q, +3.2% y/y (poll +0.8%, +3.2% respectively)

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser fireside chat in Brisbane later Wed

• Strait of Hormuz access still restricted despite Trump's antithetical claims

• AUD in mean-reversion mode, slide toward 0.7034 21-DMA increasingly likely

• AU Jul jobs update Thur, Reuters poll consensus +15k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Range Asia 0.7069-885 support 0.6920 0.6866 0.6834, resistance 0.7130 0.7200
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD remained better bid yesterday, USD/JPY held on 159 despite greater sales

• USD/JPY to 159.78 high yesterday, Asia so far today 159.49-64 EBS

• Daily Ichimoku kijun at 159.59 pierced but spot still in area

• 100-DMA 160.01 above, still technical resistance, Ichi cloud 158.92-161.38

• Japanese exporters no doubt looking to sell ahead of 160.00

• Highest budget assumptions for 160 this fiscal year, must sell there/above

• Many large companies already have sales 160+, OK for FY first half Sept-end

• Threat of Japan FX intervention back above 160 cannot be ignored either

• With a BOJ hike eyed in September, maybe again in December, upside limited?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials may have based for now but still heavy

• In 2s differential to @246 bps Monday, yesterday @250 bps, 10s @179 bps

• Tech support from 100-HMA at 159.37, hourly Ichimoku cloud 159.10-33 below

• Option expiries today also likely supportive, $1 bln between 159.00-25

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US data/economy , , US-Iran
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.6% from Tue 0.59075 high as buyers take a step back

• Pair in mean-reversion mode, drift toward 0.5854 21-DMA looks likely

• NZ Q2 PPI: inputs +2.9% q/q, outputs +1.6% q/q (prior +1.4% & +0.8%)

• Strait of Hormuz shipping remains restricted despite contrary U.S. claims

• Brent crude +2.8% wtd as supply concerns re-escalate, last $91.02 a barrel

• U.S. 30-year yields trade to high near 5.32% Tue, highest level since 2007

• NZ Jul balance of trade update, and Aug S&P manufacturing PMI due Fri

• Range NZ 0.5871-746, support 0.5831 0.5762, resistance 0.5925-30 0.5995
NZD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.5% from Tue 0.71195 high as non-energy commodities trade softer

• AUD pushing lower hourly Bollinger band, downwards momentum likely to slow

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser fireside chat in Brisbane Wed

• U.S. 30-year yields traded 5.32% earlier Tue, highest level since 2007

• Strait of Hormuz shipping remains heavily constrained despite U.S. claims

• AU Q2 wage price index due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.8% q/q, +3.2% y/y

• AU Jul jobs update Thur, Reuters poll consensus +15k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Overnight range 0.70826-0.71195 support 0.6920, resistance 0.7130 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research discuss the drivers and implications of the recent sharp decline in US labour force participation rate.

"The decline cannot be explained by any single driver alone, but we evaluate three possible explanations that could be in play simultaneously, 1) decline in net immigration, 2) loss of entry-level job opportunities and 3) early retirements. A sudden loss of labour supply that goes beyond the expected extent of the immigration slowdown is both a downside risk to real growth and an upside risk to inflation," Danske notes.

"We think the Fed will remain on hold in its upcoming September meeting, but eventually hike rates in December and March," Danske adds.

• NY opened near 1.1575 after EUR/USD traded a tight range in Asia & Europe

• The pair rallied early as the USD traded downward; 1.1589 traded

• Sellers then emerged as risk soured after Pres. Trump comments on negotiations

• Stocks turned lower, gold & silver added to losses, USD/CNH neared the overnight high

• EUR/USD hit 1.1575 in NY's afternoon, it traded down -0.05% late in the day

• Daily RSI, price drop following Monday's inverted hammer are concerns for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Workspace search string for individual stock moves: [STXBZ]

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August 18 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes hit their lowest in two weeks on Tuesday, pressured by losses in heavyweight technology stocks, while fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal sustained gains in oil prices and kept government bond yields at multi-year peaks.[.N] At 13:30 EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.17% at 53,367.72. The S&P 500 was down 0.55% at 7,702.65, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.14% at 26,341.41.

The top three S&P 500 percentage gainers:

• Targa Resources Corp. , up 7.6%

• Ulta Beauty Inc , up 5.6%

• Intuit Inc. , up 5.5%

The top three S&P 500 percentage losers:

• Coherent Corp. , down 11.8%

• Ciena Corporation , down 10.4%

• Teradyne, Inc. , down 10.2%

The top three NYSE percentage gainers:

• Weave Communications, Inc. , up 31.7%

• Haemonetics Corp , up 17.0%

• UGI Corporation , up 11.8%

The top three NYSE percentage losers:

• Klarna Group PLC , down 21.1%

• Fabrinet , down 20.7%

• Vishay Precision Group, Inc. , down 12.2%

The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers:

• Profusa Inc , up 166.9%

• IP Strategy Holdings Inc , up 150.1%

• Aixcrypto Holdings Inc , up 126.7%

The top three Nasdaq percentage losers:

• Lucas GC Ltd , down 82.1%

• Ucloudlink Group Inc , down 35.3%

• Zenta Group Co Ltd , down 34.9%

• EyePoint Inc : BUZZ - Falls after experimental drug misses goal, brokerages cut ratings

• DocGo Inc : BUZZ - Slips on tepid quarterly results, narrower annual outlook

• Baidu Inc : BUZZ - Fall after downbeat Q2 revenue

• Corebridge Financial Inc :

• Equitable Holdings Inc :

• Brighthouse Financial Inc :

• Lincoln National Corp : BUZZ - Life insurance stock weakness after Mark Walter headlines overdone, Evercore says

• Dynatrace Inc : BUZZ - Up after $1.25 bln convertible offering prices

• Duolingo Inc : BUZZ - Gains after D.A. Davidson upgrades rating, hikes price target

• Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc : BUZZ - Soars as blood sugar drug succeeds in late-stage trial

• Einride AB : BUZZ - Gains on upbeat forecast, Tesla partnership

• Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd : BUZZ - Falls as Mizuho downgrades stock to 'neutral'

• Amer Sports Inc : BUZZ - Up after raising annual forecasts

• Prenetics Global Ltd : BUZZ - Rises on Q2 revenue jump

• Pliant Therapeutics Inc : BUZZ - Rises after FDA grants fast-track tag to experimental cancer drug

• Klarna Group PLC : BUZZ - Drops after trimming revenue and volume outlook

• BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc : BUZZ - Up after agreeing to buy drug developer in deal worth up to $490 million

• Home Depot Inc : BUZZ - Rises on quarterly sales beat

• Weave Communications Inc : BUZZ - Jumps on Francisco Partners' takeover deal

• Barrick Mining Corp :

• Newmont Corp :

• Gold Fields Ltd :

• Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd : BUZZ - Gold miners fall as bond yields surge to highest levels in decades

Index RIC Index name Percent

change %

S&P 500 -0.55

S&P 500 Information -1.9

Technology

S&P 500 Utilities 0.46

S&P 500 Consumer 0.11

Discretionary

S&P 500 Materials -0.6

S&P 500 Industrials -1.23

S&P 500 Communication -0.42

Services (Sector)

S&P 500 Financials 0.48

S&P 500 Real Estate 0.2

S&P 500 Health Care 1.61

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 1.31

S&P 500 Energy 1.52

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Varun Sahay)

• NY opened near 0.7105 after 0.7096 traded in Europe's morning

• The pair rallied early as the USD traded softly; 0.7120 traded

• Sellers emerged however as risk soured; gold, silver, copper, stocks fell

• USD/CNH rallied toward the overnight high to reinforce risk-off trading

• AUD/USD fell below the overnight low, hit 0.7088 in NY's afternoon

• The pair traded down -0.22% late in the day and near Monday's low

• Falling daily RSI, daily inverted hammer could be concerns for AUD/USD bulls

• Rising monthly RSI, 20-month Bolli bands & monthly bull hammer comfort bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews the FOMC minutes from the July meeting due on Wednesday.

"The Fed minutes should provide additional insight into how divided the Committee was at the July meeting. We will also be looking for clues on just how data dependent the Committee is and particularly how much weight participants placed on the softer June inflation and employment reports when deciding to keep rates unchanged," MS notes.

"In addition, we will be watching for any shift in the Committee's assessment of inflation risks, and any commentary around Chairman Warsh considering reducing the number of FOMC meetings per year, as was reported by news outlets after the meeting. Finally, the minutes may shed light on the Fed's reaction function," MS adds.

• Shares of gold miners down, tracking lower bullion prices[GOL/]

• Spot gold down 1% at $4,369.82/ounce as Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in decades, with rising energy prices on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions stoking inflation worries and weighing on non-interest-bearing bullion

• "The steepening of the yield curve poses a headwind for gold, while firmer oil prices are also a factor behind today's weakness," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals

• Top miner Barrick Mining and Newmont down 1.1% and 2.8%, respectively

• South African miners Gold Fields falls ~1%, AngloGold Ashanti falls 1.15% and Harmony Gold falls 2.8%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines slips 0.6% and Kinross Gold down 1.8%

(Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru)

Bank of America Global Research sees NZ as best placed to withstand severe El Niño shocks to global food supply chains given its large agricultural output.

"BofA Research and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have flagged the mounting risks to global food supply chains posed by a major El Niño weather event (NOAA highest probability: Oct-Dec '26) and Hormuz-driven shortages in fertilizer inputs (nitrogen and sulfur)," BofA notes.

 "A sustained global food supply shock is likely to be a positive terms-of-trade shock for New Zealand (NZ) given its outsized dependence on agricultural exports. We remain short AUD/NZD and forecast a sustained rally in NZD/USD from Q4," BofA adds.

Japan may soon face another credibility test as rising global yields, driven by geopolitical risks, corporate bond supply and inflation concerns, pressure a low-yielding yen.

USD/JPY's break above 159.60, the 50% retracement of its post-intervention decline, puts the 160 psychological level and the nearby 100-DMA in focus. A move beyond there would target the falling 21-DMA at 160.33.

However, momentum remains limited, with exporters selling into rallies toward 160 and U.S. growth concerns tempering dollar enthusiasm. CitiFX's U.S. Economic Surprise Index is near a three-month low and diverging from its counterpart measuring the global economy.

Subdued volatility and light speculative positioning suggest Tuesday's rise is not decisive, leaving scope for a retreat below 159 to ease bullish pressure.

But if USD/JPY holds above 160 for a period of time and eventually clears the 61.8% retracement of the 163.99-155.20 decline, the post-intervention bearish narrative may shift, especially if official pushback remains absent or concerns emerge about BOJ hawkishness.

A cautious BOJ hike in September, either due to geopolitics or a slowing economy, could steepen the JGB curve, weighing further on the yen and challenging a history of successful interventions. Against that backdrop, EUR/JPY is attracting interest as a way to play rising yields while reducing exposure to dollar-specific risks, particularly as European data continue to outperform expectations.
Economic surprise


Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research on the latest wave of yen-buying intervention.

"Last week's cooler inflation news seems to forecast another heat wave in this summer of carry; low volatility and dispersed levels of rates are an undeniable recipe for carry to dictate total returns. This backdrop also dampens the likelihood of success for Japan's currency intervention, which has been the central focus point for currency markets over the last few weeks," GS notes.

"We argued there was a tension between market pricing for imminent BoJ hikes and a stable Yen. So far, that tension is being resolved on the FX side, with markets quickly resetting despite officials' powerful action. We think that is largely due to this unfriendly backdrop for a low-yielding, rates-sensitive, safe-haven currency like the Yen, in contrast to more effective interventions like in 2024 that coincided with a turn in macro conditions," GS adds.

Morgan Stanley Research summarizes its views on EUR, JPY, and GBP.

"EUR View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish.  EUR/USD faces upside risks from what we expect will be a further weaker USD, but EUR's own headwinds from an overly-hawkish ECB pricing and an expected increase in election risk premium make EUR an attractive funder on crosses," MS notes.

"JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Bearish. While the market is pricing in a sharper BoJ rate hiking cycle, USD/JPY could trade higher on the back of strong global risk sentiment and elevated US terminal rate pricing despite a modest US inflation print.

GBP View: Neutral | Skew: Bearish. We expect GBP to be a medium-term laggard from a dovish BoE pivot, but that will take time to play out, and its reasonably high carry may help support it versus low-yielding peers in the interim," MS adds.

• EUR/USD -0.04%, USD/JPY 0.12%, GBP/USD -0.1%, AUD/USD 0.04%

• S&P E-minis -0.49%, DAX -0.33%, Nikkei 225 -2.54%, FTSE 0.01%

• EUR/USD short squeeze may extend towards 200-DMA at 1.1630

• USD/JPY edges higher as exporters and importers grapple

• GBP/USD retreats from three-month peak as oil prices rise

• AUD/USD deflated by Asian stock losses

• Option expiries . U.S. Open
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• The FX hedging of OTC option strikes can intensify as their expiries loom, especially the larger ones

• That hedging activity can often draw spot toward the strike, especially when markets are more subdued

• The biggest EUR/USD strikes for Tuesday's 10-am New York cut (14.00 GMT) are 1.1570-75 on €2.3 billion

• There's €733 million at 1.1600 Tuesday and another €1.8 billion at 1.1600 Wednesday

• Thursday has €1.2 billion at 1.1600 and €2.5 billion at 1.1550. But look out for 1.1500 at the end of the week

• If EUR/USD should come under pressure, there are a massive €4.1 billion 1.1500 Thursday and €11 billion Friday
EUR/USD FX option strike expiries August 18-21


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY 2-week 161 JPY put/USD call bought on several hundred million USD early Tuesday

• Such trades not uncommon this week, covering risk of further USD/JPY recovery from post-intervention lows

• JPY call buyers remain active too, still hedging the risk of intervention and lower USD/JPY

• Risk reversal options show JPY call-over-put volatility premiums easing - 1-month 1.9 from 3.0 post-intervention

• 1.4 was the pre intervention level and likely support on any further declines while the intervention risk lingers
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders betting in excess of $12 billion on CAD dropping

• USD/CAD has sunk from 1.4248 in July to 1.3845 in August

• The 200-DMA is 1.3848

• A 61.8% retrace of May-Jul 1.3550-1.4248 rise is 1.3817

• Bearish signal when 21-DMA fell below 55-DMA on Aug 10

•
USDCAD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option risk reversals charge a volatility premium for strikes in one direction versus the other

• Its a volatility play, but pricing offers clues on the perceived directional risks in a currency pair

• Benchmark 1-month expiry EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals have seen a recent shift in pricing

• The contract has lost its downside over topside strike premium for the first time since February

• Though yet to adopt a topside strike premium, pricing shows risk tilting toward EUR/USD gains

• Related - FX options wrap - EUR/USD topside, Fed risks, cheap GBP/USD protection
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/KRW slides to 1410.0 from Tues open 1415.5; KOSPI -1.8%

• Ignores mild USD/JPY rally which is supporting other USD/AXJ pairs

• Potentially reinstates bearish chart bias, pending close below 1411.0

• That would place it back inside Bollinger downtrend channel

• Most Asian stocks drop on Wall St cue, higher oil prices due to Iran

• S. Korea exporter flows likely the main driver for USD/KRW still
KRW


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Tuesday August 18

• EUR/USD: 1.1495-1.1500 (1.2BLN), 1.1570-75 (2.3BLN), 1.1600 (733M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3500-10 (312M). NZD/USD: 0.5900 (250M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6950 (863M), 0.7045-60 (545M), 0.7170 (240M)

• AUD/NZD: 1.1875-80 (253M), 1.2280 (290M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3820-25 (733M), 1.3875 (892M), 1.3975 (275M)

• USD/JPY: 158.00 (795M), 158.95-159.00 (468M), 159.15-25 (1BLN), 159.45 (275M)

• 159.90-160.00 (845M), 160.50-60 (576M)

• FX options wrap - EUR/USD topside, Fed risks, cheap GBP/USD protection (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.4% wtd as USD continues to struggle as traders trim FFR hike bets

• Iran threatens escalation as peace talks stall; Trump threatens to bomb Oman

• Brent crude +0.6% Tue at $91.40 a barrel as oil supply concern returns

• AUD break above 0.7130 short-term resistance would enable fresh leg higher

• U.S. Jul import prices & industrial production (poll +0.3% m/m) due Tue

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser fireside chat in Brisbane Wed

• AU Jul jobs update Thur, Reuters poll consensus +15k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• Range Asia 0.71035-139 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7130 0.7190-00
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)