• Dollar eases as Treasury yields fall; Fed hike bets ease

• Seems market may not be eyeing October Fed hike given split FOMC board

• USD/JPY has slipped to 157.59 from 158.33, in Asia on Thursday, according to EBS data

• The thick cloud, that currently spans the 156.64-158.44 region, underpins

• Overall bias remains on the upside as USD/JPY usually climbs in October

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, 30 and 60-day log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Brent Crude down 2.1% at $103.83 per barrel

• US/German 10-year spread narrows to 170bps

• French/German 10-year tighter at 137 bps

• US 10-year yield down 24 bps to 5.08% since Wednesday

• Treasury short squeeze could hit dollar hard

• Oct 6/7 highs 1.1276/62 looking key after early rise to 1.1241

• 1.1320 is target for minor correction of drop led by US rate rise

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10am New York / 15:00 GMT on Thursday October 15

• EUR/USD: 1.1100 (589M), 1.1115 (298M), 1.1120 (458M), 1.1125 (214M), 1.1150 (874M), 1.1160 (575M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1185 (204M), 1.1200 (946M), 1.1225 (578M), 1.1245 (285M), 1.1250 (4.1B), 1.1265 (250M), 1.1270 (402M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1275 (2.1B), 1.1290 (199M), 1.1300 (476M), 1.1330 (358M), 1.1350 (3.0B)

• USD/JPY: 154.00 (602M), 154.50 (240M), 154.65 (237M), 154.70 (848M), 154.75 (184M), 155.00 (839M)

• USD/JPY: 156.00 (1.5B), 156.30 (339M), 156.85 (235M), 157.00 (833M), 157.15 (346M), 157.20 (450M), 157.50 (883M)

• USD/JPY: 157.60 (260M), 158.00 (1.3B), 158.41–158.45 (256M), 158.50 (869M), 158.55–158.57 (447M), 160.00 (531M)

• EUR/JPY: 176.75 (225M), 177.00 (220M), 179.00 (325M), 180.00 (633M), 180.50 (250M), 181.00 (201M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3180 (322M), 1.3200 (437M), 1.3325 (477M), 1.3375 (220M), 1.3430 (200M), 1.3500 (207M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8480 (1.2B), 0.8500 (262M), 0.8580 (358M), 0.8650 (440M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8145 (290M), 0.8160 (359M), 0.8185 (248M), 0.8250 (558M), 0.8480 (210M)

• EUR/CHF: 0.9250 (200M), 0.9390 (430M), 0.9500 (279M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6800 (319M), 0.6900 (658M), 0.6975 (207M), 0.6980 (436M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6985 (328M), 0.6990 (291M), 0.7000–0.7005 (3.2B), 0.7010 (271M), 0.7020 (995M), 0.7090 (559M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7120 (358M), 0.7125 (472M), 0.7130 (292M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5565 (662M), 0.5745–0.5750 (252M), 0.5790 (466M), 0.5810 (302M), 0.5910 (380M)

• USD/ZAR: 16.6000 (491M)

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD falls to 0.6937 as AUD weakens on soft Australian jobs data

• 0.6937 is the lowest level since Oct 8 (0.6933 was low that day)

• Australian employment fell by 39,300 in Sept vs forecast 20k increase

• Unexpectedly negative number slashes chances of RBA hike in Nov/Dec

• 0.6979 was AUD/USD high in Asia (before the Australian jobs data)

• Bids likely near 0.6900 (0.6904 was 13-week low on Oct 1)

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD dropped to 1.1113 on Weds rallies to 1.1241 on Thursday

• Drop almost reached 1.1105, 50% 1.0125-1.2084 rise, 200-WMA 1.1102

• Weds close 1.1158, Thursday's range 1.1153-1.1241, open 1.1155

• Drop was severely stretched under 1.1200 base 20-week Bollingers

• Snap back has alleviated stretched nature of the decline

• Stock drops may encourage traders profitably short EUR to pare risk

• Bond rally has tightened spreads underpinning EUR/USD

•
EURUSD weekly chart

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of India's Canara Bank fall 5.7% to 117.65 rupees

• Stock on course for biggest intraday percentage loss since March 30

• Emkay Global says management highlights intense competition in gold lending as key concern despite strong Q2 results

• Says management estimates expected credit loss provisioning requirement between 120 billion rupees ($1.26 billion) and 150 billion rupees, up by 30 billion rupees due to higher bond yields and potential one-time mark-to-market impact

• JM Financial says credit cost is significantly below guidance at 0.47% against guidance of 0.75%

• Says management expects limited near-term revenue from online payments services as customer adoption remains slow, while transaction-related costs remain elevated

• Stock down 23.97% YTD

($1 = 94.9875 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Anushka Rajvedi in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY off hard on good sales, lower US yields despite "hot" US CPI

• Seems market may not be eyeing October Fed hike given split FOMC board

• Yield on US Treasury 2s to 4.715%, 10s to 5.098% in Asia

• Japanese exporters again on offer, likely joined by specs

• USD/JPY from 158.95 high yesterday, 158.33 early high to 157.59 EBS

• Back below 158.57 200-DMA, into 156.64-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Eyes on 157.52 low October 8, 157.46 low October 5, 156.96 October 2

• Massive option expiries in area to help contain spot action

• Between 157.00-60 total $3 bln, between 158.00-60 total $3.3 bln

• EUR/JPY 176.53 to 177.12 EBS, bouncing but still in recent lower range

• To 177.12 100-HMA, into 177.02-17 hourly Ichi cloud, 200-HMA 177.32

• CHF/JPY 189.42 to 190.52, some bounce but also holding in lower range

• GBP/JPY 208.49-209.08, also holding in recent lower range

• AUD/JPY heavy, 110.38 to 109.45 but also holding in lower range

• NZD/JPY 88.27-84, in recent lower range

• Related comments , , also

• On BOJ Koeda-speak , Japan machinery orders
USD/JPY:


EUR/JPY:


AUD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.3% Thur as AU jobs data disappointment cools RBA hike bets

• Sep unemployment printed 4.7% (poll 4.6%), while Aug was revised up to 4.7%

• Futures pricing implies 87.6% chance RBA stands pat on OCR at Nov meeting

• FOMC FFR hike bets firm in wake of Wed's warmer U.S. CPI release

• AI trade wobbles as the threat of higher borrowing costs hits home

• U.S. considers easing sanctions on Iranian vessels, WTI -1.5% in Asia

• AUD targets 0.6865 support zone, break below would accelerate downswing

• Range Asia 0.69444-795 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7006 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian mining stocks slide as much as 3.6%, logging their lowest level since July 21

• Sub-index sees biggest intraday pct fall since September 11

• AXMM on course for third consecutive session of declines, if current trend holds

• Miners fall on the back of falling copper and iron ore prices [MET/L] [IRONORE/]

• Mining giants BHP Group and Rio Tinto down 3.8% and 4.2%, respectively

• Sub-index up 5.9% YTD

(Reporting by Rudrannsh Mehra in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD -0.2% Thur as AU employment data misses expectations

• AU Sep jobs update: -39.3k jobs (poll +20k), 4.7% unemployment (poll 4.6%)

• Fed policy rate hike bets firmer in wake of Wed's warm U.S. CPI release

• Threat of higher borrowing costs puts AI related stocks under pressure

• U.S. considers easing sanctions on Iranian vessels, WTI -0.4% in Asia

• AUD targets 0.6865 support zone, break below would reaccelerate downswing

• Range Asia 0.69444-795 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7006 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY less affected than other pairs after hot US CPI data

• US Sept CPI MM +0.6%, YY +3.7%, core MM +0.3%, YY +2.6%

• Expectations for +0.6%, +3.6%, +0.2% and +2.5%, respectively

• Some players not see FOMC October meeting "live" despite split views

• That said, other players see no urgency on part of Fed to hike

• USD/JPY 158.33 to 157.78 EBS in Asia, off from 158.95 high in New York

• Reports Japanese exporters good sellers on move to high yesterday

• Specs may have jumped too on the back of Japanese exporter flows

• Tokyo players in particular wary of FX intervention towards 160.00

• Exporters have been stepping ahead recently, especially from @159.00

• Spot back below 200-DMA at 158.57, into 156.64-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials not much changed, in stasis still

• In 2s around 284 and in 10s around 219 bps as of the New York close

• Some large option expiries in area today to help contain spot action

• 157.00 $833 mln, 157.15-20 $843 mln, 157.50-60 $1.3 bln, 158.00 $1.3 bln

• Also between 158.20-45 $579 mln, 158.50-60 $1.3 bln, 159.00-25 $475 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also , on US CPI

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed/Fed-speak , , ,

• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.7% from Wed 0.56305 high in aftermath of warm U.S. CPI release

• Stop-loss selling below key 0.5581 support saw NZD dip to 0.5566 overnight

• U.S. Sep CPI +0.6% m/m, +3.7% y/y (poll +0.6% & +3.6% respectively)

• Fed's Goolsbee worried about inflation report; DXY hits 102.94 18-month high

• Iran plots to keep oil prices high; Brent crude +0.4% to $106.11 a barrel

• RBNZ's Williams talking on monetary policy Thur, while Breman speaks Fri

• Futures pricing currently implies 74% chance of RBNZ hike on Oct 28

• Range NZ 0.5587-935, support 0.5485, resistance 0.5650 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.6% from Wed 0.70145 high after U.S. inflation tops expectations

• AU Sep employment due Thur, poll consensus: +20.0k jobs, 4.6% unemployment

• U.S. Sep CPI +0.6% m/m, +3.7% y/y (poll +0.6% & +3.6% respectively)

• Fed President Goolsbee said inflation report was 'discouraging'

• Futures pricing now implies 92% chance Fed hikes at least 25 bps by Dec 9

• Iran flags intent to target oil tankers, WTI +1.0% to $95.04 a barrel

• AUD targets 0.6865 support zone, break below will accelerate rout

• Overnight range 0.6951-0.70145 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7282
US Annual CPI


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ holds bulk of Wed dive in NY afternoon, -0.67% at 1.3170; NorAm range 1.3272-1.3137

• Pair put in fresh 2026 low at 1.3137 after US core CPI posted upside surprises

• Persistent US inflation stoked more-hawkish Fed policy expectations, Oct hike odds rose

• Supt near prior 2026 high by 1.3140 holds; Thursday UK GDP, output & US PPI in focus

• LSEG's IRPR sees Fed Oct hike odds at 37%, 31bp priced by Dec; BoE Nov hike 92% priced in

• GBP$ supt 1.3137 Wed low, 1.3100 psychological lvl, 1.3081 lower 30-d Bolli

• Res 1.3200 psychological lvl, 1.3224 falling 10-DMA, 1.3275 Wednesday high

Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cryptocurrency and blockchain-related stocks dip on Wednesday after bitcoin drifts to its lowest level in about a week

• Bitcoin down 2.1% at $81,635.42; Ether down 3.2% at $2,429.58

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global falls 4.5%; BTC hoarder Strategy drops 5.1%

• Retail trading platform Robinhood Markets slips 7.1%, while Webull declines 4.1%

• Crypto miners weaken: Riot Platforms Inc 5.5%, Mara Holdings 7%, Bit Digital 8.2%, Hut 8

10.9%

• BTC mining machine maker Canaan drops 7.8%, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet falls 6.1%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF both down a little lesser than 2%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by the two eldest sons of US President Donald Trump, eases 8.9%

• Ether-linked stocks Bitmine Immersion Technologies

and Sharplink Gaming slip 4.8% and 7.7%, respectively

• Including the session's moves, BTC down 6.8% YTD, ETH down 18.4% YTD

(Reporting by Darshan Kumar in Bengaluru)

• Shares of silver miners down, tracking prices of bullion [GOL/]

• Spot silver falls 4.1% to $59.96/ounce

• Prices extend losses for a third straight session, as a stronger than expected inflation reading increased US Federal Reserve rate hike bets for this month

• Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining fall 2.7% and 3%, respectively

• Canadian miners: Endeavour Silver dips 2.3% and Silvercorp Metals slumps 2.1%

• Physical Silver Shares ETF and iShares Silver Trust each plunge 3.6%

(Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru)

• 0.6982-0.7014 traded overnight, NY opened near 0.7005, up +0.32%

• Australian yield rise, US yield drop buoyed

• Gains in AUD/JPY an copper also contributed to lifting AUD/USD

• The 21-DMA was pierced before AUD/USD pulled back from its high

• Technical signals now have AUD/USD bears becoming worried

• Daily, monthly RSIs indicate upward momentum, monthly bull hammer in place

• Pair's break of psychological 0.7000 level adds to the bullish sentiment

• US Sept. CPI in focus, a below estimate result could drive AUD/USD higher
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• European natgas (dutch hub) hit 2026 high at EUR 87.47 on Tuesday

• Gas prices are strongly correlated with EUR/USD

• Higher gas weighs EUR/USD as eurozone imports, US exports

• Price of gas has more than doubled since July

• EUR/USD sinking 1.1711 to 1.1153 between Aug and Oct

•
gas and eurusd

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Oct 14 (Reuters) - - When the Bank of England's most hawkish "internal" Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member conveys dovish guidance on interest rates, traders should take note.

BoE chief economist Huw Pill said on Wednesday he's sceptical about market pricing four quarter-point rate hikes, to 4.75%, by Britain's central bank over the next year.

Pill wanted the BoE to raise rates to 4% in September, as did hawkish "external" MPC members Megan Greene and Catherine Mann.

The BoE looks set to increase its policy rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% on November 5, by a 7-2 vote. Subsequent quarter-point hikes are then fully priced by February, April and September 2027.

GBP/USD scaled a one-week peak of 1.3275 in Asia on Wednesday, after a dovish steer from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams weighed on the dollar. The pound rose to a 16-month high against the euro on Tuesday, at 1.1842.

Related:
GBPEUR

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY steady as traders turn their focus to US CPI and Fed speakers

• The pair has seen a steady 158.12-158.51 range, on Wednesday, according to EBS data

• The thick daily cloud, that currently spans the 156.64-158.44 region, limits the downside

• Overall bias remains on the upside as USD/JPY usually climbs in October

• Note also that the daily tenken and kijun lines are bullishly aligned

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, 30 and 60-day log correlations are high above +0.5

Correlation Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD rises to 0.7006, its highest level since Sept 29

• USD weighed down by dovish guidance from Fed's Williams

• Williams sees no need for Fed rate hike in 2027, Bloomberg News reports

• US Sept CPI data due at 1230 GMT; core CPI f/c at 0.2% MM, 2.5% YY

• Cooler CPI data could weigh on USD, while hotter prints might lift it

• Australian jobs data due at 0030 GMT; +20k f/c. Jobless rate f/c 4.6%

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rose to 1.3275 in Asia as dovish steer from Williams weighed on dollar

• Fed's Williams sees no need for rate hike in 2027, Bloomberg News reports

• 1.3275 is one-week high. US CPI data due at 1230 GMT; core f/c 0.2% MM, 2.5% YY

• MPC hawk Pill says he's sceptical about market pricing four BoE rate hikes

• Healey set to pay for UK budget measures without more borrowing, FT reports

• IMF says Britain does not need to speed up fiscal consolidation

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY in stasis on 158, Asia range so far 158.22-51 EBS

• Market awaiting news on US CPI tonight, more Fed-speak, FOMC split?

• Early Japanese importer, spec buys to high but off since

• Capped at top of hourly Ichimoku cloud then at 158.25-52, 158.25-44 now

• Break below cloud sees next support at 158.17 hourly kijun, 158.14 200-HMA

• USD/JPY below 158.56 200-DMA too, near top of 156.44-158.64 daily Ichi cloud

• Downside limited to daily Ichimoku tenkan in cloud at 157.85?

• $1.8 bln 157.00-25 option expiries today base for now? 158.50 $670 mln too

• Another $1.1 bln in expiries today up at 159.00 strike

• EUR/JPY 177.31-57 EBS, tad better bid after 176.49-177.34 range yesterday

• Still in lower range between 176.25 low October 5, 178.33 high October 6

• Spot move above descending 200-HMA at 177.47 bullish? Jury seen still out

• CHF/JPY 189.92-190.38, in 189.17-190.82 range since October 8

• Gravitational pull from whopping CHF1 bln option expiries today at 190.00?

• GBP/JPY buoyant, 209.66-210.20, holding below 210.88/211.26 highs Sept 22/18

• Tomorrow sees GBP964 mln in option expiries at 211.00 strike

• AUD/JPY also buoyant, best since 110.89 September 28, offers noted near top

• NZD/JPY 88.67-89.11, best since 89.31 September 29, offers too near top

• Related comment , also ,
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Valiant Gold rise as much as 4% to A$0.26, their biggest intraday pct gain since Oct 6

• Copper explorer updates on its flagship Comet Gold Mine in Western Australia’s Murchison region

• Says first production targeted for H227

• YTD, stock down below 13%

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)