CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's FOMC minutes from the September meeting.
"The minutes of the September FOMC, at which participants increased their inflation forecasts and pulled forward the timing for the projection of the first rate hike into 2022, featured a discussion centered on the impact of supply chain bottlenecks, which have weighed on goods purchases. Participants thought that those bottlenecks wouldn't be fully resolved until sometime next year or even later. Still, that didn't prevent participants from upgrading GDP forecasts for 2022-23, or assuming that their impacts on inflation would moderate. We had assumed that if an announcement on QE tapering was made at the next meeting, it would begin in mid-November, but it could also be mid-December according to the minutes," CIBC notes.
"Participants generally assessed that concluding tapering around mid-2022 would be appropriate, which would open the door for our forecast for a rate hike in September 2022," CIBC adds.