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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 19 - 01:40 PM
  • Pair rallies in Europe am equity, copper gains & safe-haven sales

  • NY opens near 0.7710 & lifts as US$ sales persist & AUD/JPY stays bid

  • Lift stalls short of Europe's 0.72255 high, slide then ensues

  • Equities & copper lose some gains while AUD/JPY sinks near 79.80

  • AUD/USD follows, nears flat on the session, approaches 21-DMA late

  • Monthly RSI diverging on Jan 6 high, inverted daily, monthly hammers form

  • Technical signals are highlighting some downside risks for AUD/USD

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 01:30 PM

Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook from the valuation front.

"We view fair value for EUR/USD to be a 1.08-1.20 range, depending on the model employed. Either way, at current levels, valuation is neutral if not an outright headwind for spot," Danske notes.

"US assets’ trend performance continues to be strong relative to European counterparts and the COVID19 pandemic has fast-forwarded the adoption of technology, favouring flows into the US. EUR/USD thus faces structural decline due to a lack of competitiveness. In our view, a valuation reversal (lower EUR/USD) could come from rising US real rates, fading EU optimism and/or falling equities," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
Jan 19 - 01:55 PM

AUD/USD - Rally Sellers Emerge

By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 19 - 12:49 PM
  • Bounce from the Jan. 18 low extends above the 21-DMA today

  • Rally stalls & reverses ahead of 0.7730/40 resistance & 10-DMA

  • Two rallies near that resistance fail, rally sellers are found

  • Inverted monthly hammer, long upper wick on today's candle favor bears

  • Monthly RSI diverging on high set on January 6, bolsters bear sentiment

  • The correction in the longer-term rally seems likely to deepen

  • Tests of support near 0.7640/50 & 0.7510/20 cannot be ruled out

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 10:45 AM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and highlights the importance of the 104.40.

"USDJPY extends its consolidation after being capped for now as expected at a cluster of major resistances at its downtrend from last March at 104.20 and then recent high at 104.40. However, we remain of the view we may be witnessing the construction of a bullish falling “wedge” reversal,' CS notes. 

"Above 104.40 is now needed to see this confirmed to mark a more important reversal higher to open up a move to 104.75/77 initially, ahead of 105.13/17 and then likely the 200 -day average and November high at 105.68/79, which we would expect to cap at first," CS adds. 

 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 19 - 10:45 AM

GBP/USD held earlier gains on Tuesday, underpinned by firm risk markets with Janet Yellen, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's nominee to run the Treasury Department, expected to elaborate on her call for lawmakers to go big on economic stimulus nL1N2JU0ZU.

Cable was holding just below Tuesday's Europe session high at 1.3626.

While enhanced fiscal relief is likely to stimulate U.S. growth in the medium and long term, the rise in debt and its affect on the U.S. balance sheet is seen as a dollar-negative in the short run.

Despite the pound's recent slide away from trend and 2021 highs above 1.3700, based on UK lockdowns and negative-rate expectations, it remains resilient, finding support at its 30-DMA by 1.3521.

The lack of follow-through pushing the pound lower hints that GBP bulls may be gearing up for another test of recent highs.

Bulls are likely to remain in control above 1.3451, the 50% Fib of 1.3190-1.3712 and the Jan. 11 low.
Sterling finds initial resistance at 1.3712, the Jan 14 2021 high, followed by the upper 30-day Bolli at 1.3749 and 1.3773, the weekly high from May 31 2018.
For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 09:30 AM

Citi discusses USDJPY outlook and maintains a bearish bias, expecting a move towards 99 in Q1 and towards 97 in the first half of this year.

"While overall USD weakness is the main reason, we think inward portfolio investments into the Japanese share market can be an additional factor to appreciate the Yen. Given the strength of US equities, we would not be surprised if the Nikkei 225 tests 30,000, but stronger share prices won’t be positively correlated with USDJPY unusually this time," Citi notes. 

"Our base scenario is for USDJPY to fall further to around 97 in the first half of this year. While we believe JPY will not outperform other G10 like EUR or AUD in a risk -on environment (our base scenario), the risk scenario with a subjective probability at around 25% is for USDJPY to fall to around 95 this year," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 19 - 08:52 AM

TD Research discusses the USD outlook around today' confirmation hearing for Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen in front of the Senate Finance Committee.

"Risk markets were greeted kindly on the return from the long weekend. The USD's broadly lower, dropping against nearly all the major G10/EM pairs. Markets likely anticipate comforting words from Yellen this morning at her confirmation hearing. We don't expect much USD discussion today, but fiscal should feature front and center," TD notes. 

"A focus on US fiscal should cut two-ways for markets, especially related to existing growth gaps across the major economies. The conventional view is that more US stimulus should benefit the ROW in the absence of a Fed taper. Alternatively, more US fiscal support would serve to amplify our existing positive USD growth signals," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jan 19 - 07:04 AM
  • Options thrive on volatility -measuring expectations with implied volatility

  • However, it's falling across all maturities, even overnight (next day)

  • Overnight implied volatility 7.5- low since late Dec for current time of day

  • Break-even for simple vanilla straddle is $37-pips in either direction

  • Expiry gets Yellen speech - key points already touted by WSJ nFWN2JU0GY

  • Italian government confidence vote moves to senate after win in parliament

  • Loss could dent euro, but option pricing suggests ranges will still prevail

  • Related comments nL1N2JU0GVnL1N2JU0MJ



Overnight (next day) expiry EUR/USD implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 19 - 05:45 AM
  • Cable hits 1.3626 after extending north from 1.3522 (Monday's six-day low)

  • Rise precedes Yellen's Senate confirmation hearing, which starts at 1500GMT

  • See: nL1N2JT1NCnL1N2JS0LP. 1.3581-1.3614 was Asia range nL1N2JU0D5

  • Risk-sensitive pound elicits support from positive U.S. equity futures

  • See: nL4N2JU2D6. 1.3600-15 options roll off at 1500GMT NY cut nL1N2JU0DU

  • UK takes orders of more than GBP 45 bln for new gilt-bookrunner nL8N2JU27Y

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 19 - 04:54 AM
  • EBS flow data shows steady USD/JPY buying since the start of the week

  • USD/JPY stuck under a cloud, which spans 104.29-65 region nL1N2JU0H6

  • Japanese exporter offers are helping to limit the upside

  • USD/JPY sees a 103.66-104.08 range so far, according to EBS prices Tuesday

  • Meanwhile Japanese importer, investor and other bids trail down from 103.50

  • 103.50 is where the kijun line resides, bears need a break below it

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY relationship weak, 30-day log correlation well under +0.50

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 19 - 03:36 AM
  • Small hammer on Monday's candle is a warning sign of a larger recovery

  • Hammer: a small real body near high, small upper shadow, long lower tail

  • That warning has been amplified by the bear trap left under the 1.2064 Fibo

  • 1.2064 Fibo -- 38.2% retrace of the 1.1602 to 1.2349 (Nov to Jan) EBS rise

  • A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a level but then reverses

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2JT110

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 19 - 02:53 AM
  • Cable has respected its 1.3581-1.3614 Asian session range since the Ldn open

  • 1.3614 is high water-mark since Monday's six-day low of 1.3522 nL1N2JT163

  • 1.3614 = pip shy of Jan 13 low and three pips shy of 50% of 1.3712 to 1.3522

  • 1.3712 was 32-month high on Jan 14, before some profit-taking on GBP longs

  • IMM specs upped net GBP long to 10-month high in week to Jan 12 nL1N2JT0EZ

  • Yellen's Senate confirmation hearing at 1500GMT nL1N2JT1NCnL1N2JT0L5

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jan 19 - 02:52 AM
  • Recent AUD/USD option flows show protection against volatility and downside

  • Premiums higher as a result, but have peaked for now as spot setback stalls

  • Holders of implied volatility are protected against actual volatility

  • There's been enough actual volatility to justify current implied levels

  • One month historic volatility trades similar levels to 1-month implied

  • Repeat past months spot volatility would cover premium with once daily hedge





AUD/USD 1-month expiry implied volatility Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 19 - 02:05 AM
  • Sterling continues to cling to its underlying bull bias

  • Long lower candle shadows highlight demand on dips pattern

  • 30DMA provides a buy point, currently 1.3520 vs 1.3522 Mon low

  • Barriers at 1.3712 Jan 14 high and 30DMA upper Bollinger at 1.3750

  • Close today above 10DMA, 1.3602, to bolster trend resumption

  • Longer -term bull targets 1.4068-1.4165, weekly cloud top and 100WMA

















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 18 - 10:18 PM
  • EUR/USD opened unchanged around 1.2075 after quiet US holiday session

  • Pair tracked higher through the morning, as equity markets moved higher

  • E-minis were up over 0.5% while the AXJ index moved 1.25% higher

  • US fiscal stimulus optimism ahead of Yellen testimony supported risk [nL1N2JS0LP]

  • Asian markets also supported by yesterday's strong China growth data nL1N2JU02Z

  • Support at 55-day MA at 1.2058 and break below 1.2050 would be bearish

  • Resistance at the 10-day MA at 1.2173 and break eases downward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 18 - 10:04 PM
  • +0.2% - USD led with risk resilient in Asia - E-mini S&P +0.55%

  • Trades at the top of a 1.3581-1.3614 range with plenty of interest

  • UK firms call for immediate $10.3 billion in COVID aid nL8N2JT3IN

  • Techs; key resistance at 1.3712/19 - Jan high and upper 21 day Bolli band

  • Daily momentum studies flat line, 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages conflict

  • Neutral setup in the middle of the January range - breakout likely USD led

  • Break of 1.3451 2021 base would initially target 1.3384, 38.2% Nov-Jan rise

  • London 1.3522 low and 1.3622 5 day moving average initial support-resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 jan 19 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 18 - 09:55 PM
  • AUD/USD is above 0.7710 after opening the session around 0.7675

  • Move higher has been underpinned by buoyant equity markets in Asia

  • E-minis are over 0.5% higher while AXJ equity index in +1.28%

  • Mood boosted by US stimulus hopes ahead of Yellen's testimony today

  • Yellen is expected to ask the Senate Committee for a large fiscal package nL1N2JT1NC

  • Strong China growth data yesterday also contributing to risk on tone in Asia nL1N2JU02Z

  • AUD/USD resistance @ 10-day MA @ 0.7742 and break shifts pressure to upside

  • Support at 21-day MA @ 0.7680 and close below would add to downward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 18 - 07:53 PM
  • E-mini futures ar +0.35% - while the Nikkei and ASX 200 are over 1.0% higher

  • Buoyant mood in equities underpinning AUD/USD - with 0.7703 the high so far

  • Resistance is at yesterday's high at 0.7710 and 10-day MA at 0.7741

  • Support is found at the 21-day MA at 0.7680 and yesterday's 0.7659 low

  • For more click on FXBUZ














aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 18 - 05:36 PM
  • AUD/USD traded below 21-day MA for first time since Nov 4, but closed above

  • The 21-day MA comes in at 0.6779 today and AUD/USD last traded at that level

  • Profit taking on risk assets supporting USD/weighing on AUD/USD

  • WSJ article saying incoming Yellen doesn't favour weak USD also impacting nL1N2JS0LP

  • A clear break below the 21-day MA targets the Jan 4 and 2021 low at 0.7642

  • Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 0.7739 and break would ease pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 18 - 03:00 PM

Danske Research discusses EUR/CHF outlook and maintains a neutral bias on the cross over the coming months. Danske targets the cross at 1.08 in 1-3months, and 1.10 in 6-12 months.

"Following the relief rally in EUR/CHF since early summer 2020, spot has been unchanged and intervention remains the key policy tool. Swiss policy rates are thus set to stay unchanged at the longstanding -0.75%. Going into Q1, EUR/USD took a step lower and with it EUR/CHF too. Currently, upside risk to European inflation and demand seems very limited (due to lockdowns). In turn, the near-term potential to see a weaker CHF also appears limited," Danske notes. 

"We see balanced risks to EUR/CHF near term. If EUR/CHF is to move higher, it would be likely to happen in tandem with opening up the European economy from H2 onward. The key for the pair is if global and European macro become so good that markets start talking about ECB rate hikes. Today, such a scenario is not in play," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jan 18 - 10:34 AM
  • Martin Luther King Day quells interest EUR/USD 1.2054-90 EBS

  • Pair has met minimum objective to correct Nov-Jan 1.1602-1.2349 rise

  • 38.2% Nov-Jan rise is 1.2064

  • Low is close 55-DMA at 1.2051. 30-Day Lower Bollinger 1.2052

  • Longs are growing but still much reduced from bets held Aug 2020 IMM/FX

  • Dollar has based but may soon resume its decline nL1N2JT0JQ



USDMXN Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 18 - 10:14 AM
  • USD/JPY chart negative after tech resistance blocks recovery nL1N2JT0E3

  • U.S. holiday thins spot trading, activity should pick up in Asia

  • USD/JPY sees a 103.70-93 range so far, according to EBS prices Monday

  • Stocks sink as coronavirus fears outweigh recovery hopes nL1N2JT0SV

  • Risk aversion is feeding demand for the safe haven yen

  • Japanese importer, investor and other bids trail down from 103.50

  • Meanwhile Japanese exporters said to have offers at 104.00 and above

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY relationship weak, 30-day log correlation well under +0.50

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 18 - 01:30 PM

TD Research discusses the USD outlook and flags a scope for the recent positioning-induced rally to extend further over the coming weeks.

"Our views and trading themes rest on a rotation from the single liquidity meta-theme to a shift in the regional growth variations. The result is a positioning induced USD rally, especially as relative growth signals point to a 3% USD discount. It's too early to tell, but it may result in a full narrative shift, depending on how the COVID curves and the vaccine rollouts evolve," TD notes. 

"In other words, we likely see USD bounce through a transition away from the liquidity-based narrative into the evolving growth divergence theme. Worse, a risk meltdown inspires a bounceback in safe havens like the USD or JPY...Our broad USD positioning index shows USD shorts at new cycle lows, recently advancing past the levels seen in 2017/2018. If things turn, the wave will crash fast,' TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 18 - 10:03 AM
  • Cable eyes 1.3572 after pushing recovery envelope from 1.3522 (Ldn am low)

  • 1.3572 was Friday's low. 1.3522 = lowest level since Jan 12 nL1N2JT0OO

  • Drop to 1.3522 was influenced by news of U.S. FX policy under Yellen

  • Treasury nominee Yellen to say U.S. does not seek weaker USD nL1N2JS0LP

  • 1.3600 and 1.3615/20 (Jan 13/14 lows) are resistance levels beyond 1.3572

  • GBP/EUR holds above 1.1200 after fall from nine-week high nL1N2JT0Z7

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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