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Danske Research previews tomorrow's June FOMC meeting.
"Neither we nor markets expect policy rate changes from the Fed at this week’s meeting, or in July for that matter. As such, all eyes will be on Kevin Warsh, his personal views on rates and the economy as well as possible changes to old practices. But even if Warsh lands on the dovish camp of the FOMC, the distribution of individual rate forecasts will still likely shift higher from March," Danske notes.
"We expect Warsh to avoid strong directional forward guidance on Wednesday evening, we also doubt that the meeting will trigger significant level shifts in EUR/USD and/or short-end UST yields. Warsh is likely to land on the dovish side of voter consensus, but the rest of the committee is increasingly leaning towards a neutral (if not tightening) bias. We continue to forecast two rate hikes in Dec26 and March27, while markets price in only one rate hike," Danske adds.