Credit Agricole CIB Research expects Gold to regain its bullish momentum following the recent sell-off.

"We believe that many negatives are already in the price of gold following its recent sell-off. Central banks still see XAU as a primary tool to reduce their exposure to the USD given the attempts by the US to weaponize the currency.

They could thus resume gold purchases especially if global energy shock continues to fade. Concerns about fiscal dominance over the Fed could return as well, weigh on US real rates and help XAU recover," CACIB adds.

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trade, +0.32% at 1.3401; Wednesday range 1.3410-1.3323

• Early NorAm dip on back of Trump comments on Iran MOU being over reversed

• Pair hits fresh 3-week high at 1.3410, offers noted by daily cloud base at 1.3409

• Fed minutes give no new clues on policy path, data dependent remains Fed's guidance

• Fed policymakers saw inflation concerns mounting at June meeting, minutes show

• GBP$ res 1.3410 Wed high, 1.3460 daily cloud top/June 15 high, 1.3516 upper 30d Bolli

• Supt 1.3338 30-DMA, 1.3323 Wednesday low, 1.3276 daily low July 2

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1410 after 1.1432 traded overnight, the pair neared 1.1415 early

• EUR/USD then fell as comments from President Trump on Iran tensions soured risk

• Oil , USD, US yields rallied and USD/CNH rallied above 6.8101

• Gold, silver and equities fell sharply as investtrs sought safer assets

• EUR/USD pierced the 10-DMA, channel base on daily charts; hit a 4-session low of 1.1391

• Buyers then emerged as USD, oil, US yields slumped as risk sentiment improved

• Stocks, gold eroded some losses & USD/CNH gave back some earlier gains

• EUR/USD turned positive, rallied back above the 10-DMA, neared 1.1430

• The pair then sat near 1.1425 after the Fed minutes, it traded up +0.11%
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6925 after 0.6946-0.6907 traded overnight, the pair fell early

• Soured risk sentiment kept oil , USD and US yields

buoyant

• Gold, silver and equities, copper fell while USD/CNH rallied up to 6.8101

• Comments from President Trump on the tensions with Iran weighed on risk sentiment

• AUD/USD fell toward the overnight low but buyers emerged and the pair turned up

• US dollar, yields & oil gave back some gains & stocks, gold, silver moved upward

• USD/CNH eroded some gains which helped AUD/USD rally toward 0.6940

• AUD/USD sat near 0.6930 after the Fed minutes, it traded up +0.05%
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan reviews the July RBNZ meeting.

"The RBNZ hiked rates to 2.5% O/N and delivered a data dependent slightly hawkish lean, as expected. The NZ has outperformed post the decision, in part due to the fact that the move wasn't fully priced, but with NZ rates still below their peers, this is no 'smoking gun' for an aggressive rally in NZD," JPM notes.

"While the board expects some further unwinding of stimulatory stimulus, the outlook remains uncertain and before we get too carried away, next week's QSBO and 2Q inflation on the 20th will be important. While cannot rule out further gains for a currency that has been unloved for months, buying dips in AUDNZD towards the 100DMA~ 1.2101 is the game plan," JPM adds.

Goldman Sachs reviews the RBNZ July policy meeting.

"The RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50% at the July meeting. The outcome was in line with our forecast, the majority of market economist forecasts (17 out of 23 expected a 25bp hike) and market pricing (+17bp). The decision was reached by consensus across the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).  

Looking ahead, we lean towards another 25bp rate hike in September to 2.75%, given the MPC still judges policy to be accommodative and that the MPC on aggregate assesses inflation risks as skewed slightly to the upside. Over the medium term, however, we continue to expect the RBNZ to remain on hold at 2.75% as existing spare capacity in the New Zealand economy limits the indirect effects of the oil price shock and inflation undershoots the RBNZ's forecasts," GS notes.

"We remain constructive on NZD following the RBNZ decision, where markets appear to underappreciate the significance of the unanimous vote and the potential for further tightening," GS adds.

EUR/USD fell to a four-session low on Wednesday, weighed down by a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and bearish technical signals that have left long-positioned investors increasingly exposed to downside risk. The primary catalyst was an overnight escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, which triggered a classic flight to safety. Oil prices , the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields all rallied as a result, while riskier assets including equities , gold , and silver sold off sharply — all of which compounded downward pressure on the pair.

From a technical standpoint, the picture has deteriorated since the July 2 daily high. EUR/USD has slipped below its rising 10-day moving average and pierced the base of its rising channel on the daily chart, signaling that the rally off the June 24 low may have only been a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend. Wednesday's daily inverted hammer candle, along with falling RSI readings on both the daily and monthly timeframes, reinforces the view that downward momentum is building.

Should the pair close below the channel base, the channel pattern would be considered complete, opening the door to a test of the 1.1050–1.1100 area — a target derived from the measured move of the June 15 to June 24 decline. Any further escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions would meaningfully amplify these downside risks.
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs preview today's FOMC minutes from the June policy meeting.

BofA: In the June FOMC minutes, markets will focus on the discussion around rate hikes. With nine policymakers penciling in hikes this year, the minutes might give us clues as to whether the Fed is looking to move as early as July. Any discussion of Chair Warsh's task forces will also be of interest. Fed watchers should be prepared for the possibility that Warsh will have the minutes restructured and/or condensed, as was the case with the statement.

Morgan Stanley: We are hoping for clues to the Fed's changing reaction function, in particular around inflation. In his speech at Sintra, Chairman Warsh put the focus on the decline in inflation risks: in these minutes, we are Looking for assessments of oil pass through, shorter-run inflation expectations, and explanation of the high 2026 inflation in the SEP. Also, how much have labor market assessments changed. In his press conference after the June FOMC, Warsh recognized a "stable" labor market with some positive momentum; this contrasted with the April FOMC minutes which noted "stabilization in the labor market" but concerns about "recent low.

JP Morgan: Today's scheduled release of the minutes to the June 16-17 FOMC meeting will be the first minutes in the Warsh era of diminished communications. The revamp of the last post-meeting statement raises the specter of a similar revamp to the minutes. This is a risk, but we see a few factors that could limit how much change we can expect to see...We don't expect material format changes today, but the risks clearly tilt toward less transparency in Fed communications.

Goldman: The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% and removed the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts from its statement at the June FOMC meeting. But the meeting delivered a hawkish surprise, with nine participants projecting a hike in 2026 (vs. our expectation of three). We suspect that FOMC participants treated the news about a deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz- which emerged only a few days before the meeting-cautiously. Chairman Warsh also noted earlier this week that "inflation expectations have come down, and inflation risks have come down" at a panel discussion in Sintra, Portugal. We will look for details in the minutes on the assumptions underlying participants' economic outlook and views of the balance of risks at the time.

• U.S.-listed shares of copper miners fall premarket, tracking lower prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark three-month copper on London Metal Exchange down 1.2% at $13,210 a metric ton

• Copper prices dip after fresh hostilities in the Middle East threatened an interim ceasefire deal, reviving worries about economic growth and the supply of metals

• Shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Group fall 3.5% and 3%, respectively

• Copper miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan down 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals slide 3%, Ero Copper down marginally and Teck Resources

falls 4.5%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD falls to 0.6907 as safe-haven USD strengthens on Trump guidance

• Trump says interim accord to end Iran war is "over". Oil prices up 5%

• 0.6907 is the lowest level since July 2 (0.6960 was two-week high Tuesday)

• Support points below 0.6900 include 0.6883 (July 1 low) and 0.6872 (200DMA)

• Bids around the 200DMA based AUD/USD at a three-month low last week

• Minutes from June's Fed meeting will be published at 1800 GMT

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• US President Donald Trump says interim accord with Iran to end war is "over", adding he didn't want to engage with Tehran

• The comments saw a knee-jerk reaction lower in EUR/USD 1.1427-1.1402 (EBS)

• Hedging flows relating to huge FX option strike expiries at 1.1400-05 can help limit downside

• FX option 1-month implied volatility up from 2026 low at 4.9 Tues to 5.2 since latest strikes on Iran and 5.3 post Trump comments

• 1-month expiry risk reversals increase downside over upside strike premium to 0.45 Wed from 0.35 Tues - wary of deeper FX declines

• A close below 1.1335 - 38.2% Fibo of 1.0125-1.2084 slide remains key to deeper declines below post June Fed and 1-year low 1.1325
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 26 pip range thus far Wednesday; 0.6920-0.6946

• 0.6920 is also the low water-mark since Tuesday's 0.6960 two-week high

• AUD/NZD down to threaten 1.2134 as hawkish hike from RBNZ buoys kiwi

• 1.2134 was last week's low. RBA's Hunter says oil shock yet to slow economy

• Minutes from June's Fed meeting will be published at 1800 GMT

• BHP iron ore workers threaten first strike in decades at Port Hedland

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rise to 1.3365 influenced by dollar's drop to six-week low vs won

• 1.3365 is intra-day high. 1.3343 was Asia low, as USD rose on higher oil prices

• Iran targets sites in Bahrain, Kuwait after wave of U.S. strikes

• 1.3400 was Tuesday's 3-week GBP/USD high, which 200DMA helped define

• Minutes from June's Fed meeting will be published at 1800 GMT

• UK's main parties won't stand against Farage in Clacton by-election

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Refreshes markets through Asia afternoon, adds RBNZ comment)

By Gregor Stuart Hunter

SINGAPORE, July 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held around its highest level in a week in Asian trade on Wednesday as the U.S. and Iran traded fresh attacks, while New Zealand's currency jumped after the country's central bank lifted interest rates and flagged further tightening.

The greenback firmed 0.1% to 162.33 yen , advancing for a fourth day against the Japanese currency to reach its strongest level since July 2.

On Wednesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they attacked U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait after the U.S. launched a wave of strikes against Iran in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

The greenback, widely considered a global safe haven, pared some earlier gains as the trading session progressed.

"For now, the market is keeping to the playbook that Tehran and Washington are still in a high-stakes game to gain leverage during the temporary truce, and that Tuesday’s incident would not descend back into a full-scale war," DBS analysts wrote in a research report.

"However, the incident was a reminder that the real risk remains the expiry of the interim ceasefire agreement in mid-August and the red line over transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz."

Meanwhile, the kiwi dollar jumped 0.5% to highs of $0.5705 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% to curb inflation pressures, as most economists had expected, and said "some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required" to control inflation.

Its Australian counterpart strengthened 0.2% to $0.6943.

"A key argument for the hike is a concern that financial conditions would have eased further if the OCR was left unchanged," Westpac analysts wrote in a research note, referring to the central bank's official cash rate.

The euro was flat at $1.1415, while the British pound

was steady at $1.3351. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.1% at 101.05 after earlier reaching its highest since July 2.

Brent crude was up 3.3% at $76.59 a barrel in Asian trade on Wednesday, extending a rally into a second day.

The yen crept toward a fresh 40-year low after Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada, the sole dissenter to the BOJ's decision in June to raise interest rates, told Reuters he must see signs of demand-driven inflation before supporting further hikes.

Bitcoin was down 1.4% at $62,797.71, while ether

declined 1.5% to $1,756.37.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Stephen Coates and Kevin Buckland)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Wednesday July 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1350 (460M), 1.1360-65 (752M), 1.1375 (628M), 1.1400-05 (3.2BLN), 1.1450-55 (1.2BLN)

• 1.1465-75 (1BLN), 1.1485 (671M), 1.1500 (1.8BLN)

• GBP/USD: 1.3350 (1.4BLN). USD/CHF: 0.8025 (824M).

• AUD/USD: 0.6895-0.6900 (701M), 0.6925-30 (378M), 0.7000 (574M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5710 (201M), 0.5825 (250M), 0.5850 (500M)

• AUD/NZD: 1.2080 (612M), 1.2200 (661M), 1.2250 (503M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4080 (462M), 1.4100 (594M), 1.4190-1.4200 (662M), 1.4250 (757M)

• USD/JPY: 161.00 (1.1BLN), 161.50-55 (580M), 161.65-75 (606M), 161.90-162.00 (1.3BLN), 162.45-50 (632M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD up 0.25% as Asia remains unfazed by renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities

• U.S. says it has completed a new round of strikes on Iran

• Wall Street futures recover; Nasdaq futures +0.4%, pare Tuesday's losses

• RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter's mildly hawkish comments support AUD

• Higher oil prices likely to cap rallies; resistance 0.6965-70, 0.7000

• Support 0.6910-20, 0.6890, pivotal at 200-day MA currently at 0.6873

• Asia range 0.6920-0.6946
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD +0.45% as RBNZ raises rates by 25 bps to 2.50% as expected

• RBNZ says more rate rises may be needed with inflation above target

• Also says possible economic recovery may warrant tighter policy

• Notes energy shock may linger despite lower oil prices

• Signals data-dependency, says timing of future rate hikes uncertain

• NZD reaction muted despite hawkish hike; resistance 0.5720, 0.5765-70

• Support 0.5670-75, 0.5627 June low; Asia range 0.5672-0.5705
NZD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Ramelius Resources fall as much as 3.7% to A$2.88, lowest level since July 2

• Gold miner posts annual production of 192,182 ounces, down from FY25 output of 301,664 ounces

• Says Q4 production was 53,466 ounces, compared with 73,454 ounces recorded last year

• Stock falls in line with gold sub-index , which is down 3.5%

• Stock down ~30% YTD
(Reporting by Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru)

(Updates)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 3.8% in early trade, on pace for the third straight day of losses

• Gold prices fall 1% on the back of escalating tensions in the Middle East [GOL/]

• Evolution Mining , Northern Star Resources and Perseus Mining down 4.8%, 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively

• Morningstar notes gold prices continue to fall, with gold miners' shares remaining expensive, trading at 30% to 180% above fair value

• Also flags that despite recent declines, gold prices are still up about 150% since late 2022 on worries over tariffs, geopolitical issues, Western government fiscal deficits and debt levels and a weaker U.S. dollar

• Morningstar cuts fair value estimate for Evolution by 4% to A$4.5

• Investment research firm also reduces fair value estimate for Northern Star and Perseus Mining by 5% to A$14.2 and 6% to A$3, respectively

• AXGD down 19.4% YTD, including the day's moves
(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY market on volatile side recently, maybe same again today

• Market nervous over Japan FX intervention, paring of more JPY shorts

• IMM CTA data as of last Tuesday saw JPY shorts at recent highs

• With Nikkei opening weak today, more paring of stock currency hedges?

• Re-flaring of US-Iran tensions again seen USD positive however

• USD/JPY 162.12-40 EBS so far in Asia, range yesterday 161.67-162.18

• Recent retracement low 160.49 last Friday, high 162.84 July 1

• Technically, good bounce from top of 161.45-162.04 hourly Ichi cloud

• 200 and 100-HMAs in cloud at 161.92 and 161.76 also supportive

• In option expiries today 161.00-95 $3 bln, 162.00 $969 mln

• Also between 162.35-55 total $800 mln, on 163 total $2.4 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower in 10s, off highs in 2s

• 10-year interest rate differential @164 bps, in 2s @272 bps

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US-Iran , ,

• On US economy , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Danske and Bank of America Global Research preview tonight's RBNZ policy meetings.

"Overnight, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to hike its Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 2.50%, in line with consensus. Markets see the move as likely, but not a fully done deal, with about 75% likelihood priced in. RBNZ was close to hiking at the previous meeting back in late May (vote split 3-3), and the rate path signalled a high chance for a hike during Q3. A hike could provide temporary support for NZD/USD, but looking further ahead, we expect the cross to trade near its current level of 0.57 over the coming year," Danske notes.

"We expect the RBNZ to increase the OCR by 25bp to 2.5% on July 8, but it's a close call and a split decision is likely. The RBNZ's projected OCR path in the May MPS suggests a July hike, and the Governor signalled further OCR increases in coming meetings. While oil prices are currently lower than the RBNZ expected in May, this largely reduces tail risks and inflation is still expected to stay well above target through 2026. Recent GDP data suggest less spare capacity when the Iran shock hit, which increases the risk of second-round effects. With inflation above target and upside risks, a risk management approach supports a hike now to a more neutral stance, reducing the risk of a more disruptive tightening later," Danske adds.

• Morningstar notes gold prices continue to fall, with gold miners' shares remaining expensive in trading at 30% to 180% above fair value

• Also flags that despite recent declines, gold prices are still up about 150% since late 2022 on worries over tariffs, geopolitical issues, Western government fiscal deficits and debt levels and a weaker U.S. dollar

• Morningstar cuts fair value estimate for Evolution Mining

by 4% to A$4.5

• Investment research firm also reduces fair value estimate for Northern Star Resources and Perseus Mining by 5% to A$14.2 and 6% to A$3, respectively

• Morningstar notes elevated gold prices are driving strong M&A activity while also incentivising organic growth; Northern Star being pressured by activist investor Elliott to sell all or part of the company

• ASX Gold Index down 16.2% so far this year, as of last close
(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• NY opened near 1.1435 after EUR/USD hit 1.1449 overnight, the pair lifted early

• Softer US dollar, US yields & upward moves in gold, silver & stocks lifted EUR/USD

• 1.1442 traded but sellers then emerged and the pair fell to 1.1418

• Rally in oil, USD/CNH & firmer USD, US yields helped to weigh down EUR/USD

• The pair bounced &neared 1.1425 late, it traded down -0.15% in NY's afternoon

• Falling daily RSI and pair's hold below the 21-DMA may be worries for EUR/USD bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research previews tonight's RBNZ policy meeting.

"We expect the RBNZ to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 25bp to 2.50% on Wednesday. In uncertain times, it's all about risk management. With the OCR still 75bp below the RBNZ's central estimate of neutral, growth conditions supportive, the NZD much softer than assumed, and inflation set to sit above the band for a period, it's sensible to get a hike under the belt, despite the sharp fall in oil prices," ANZ notes.

"We expect a relatively short statement that sounds open-minded about what comes next - at this stage there's little to be gained from sounding more certain than warranted about what the next few months will bring," ANZ adds.