MUFG Research discusses the latest wave of JPY intervention.

"On balance, we expect US intervention to support the yen to remain relatively small in scale. While joint intervention may prove more effective at helping to provide support for the yen in the near-term, we still believe that it can only buy time. There will need to be a change in fundamentals as well to encourage a sustainable reversal of the yen weakening trend that has been in place over the last five years," MUFG notes.

"More US pressure on Japan to allow a faster pace of BoJ policy normalization as part of the joint intervention arrangement would an important step to help reverse yen weakness. The Japanese rate market has moved to price in a higher probability of a September hike which is currently priced at closer to 50:50," MUFG adds.

AUD/USD is currently trading roughly 2.5% above its June low, though it remains capped by resistance in the 0.7070 to 0.7090 zone. Despite this technical hurdle, bullish traders remain confident that the broader trend favors further upside. For now, however, they appear to be waiting for a fresh catalyst to reignite the rally.

Part of this bullish confidence stems from supportive external market dynamics. Copper has surged to a two-month high, equity markets have pushed to fresh all-time highs, and gold and silver appear to be stabilizing after steep declines earlier in the year. If these cross-asset tailwinds persist, they could help drive AUD/USD higher.

However, notable risks remain, particularly around upcoming U.S. labor market data. Reports including the ADP employment figures, nonfarm payrolls, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM non-manufacturing index will offer insight into labor market health. Should these releases point to cooling job growth rather than overheating, markets may scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes , likely triggering broad U.S. dollar weakness and giving AUD/USD room to resume its climb.

If the pair breaks above the 0.7070 to 0.7090 zone—which contains both the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7277-0.6867 decline and the June 15 daily high—the next test would likely be structural resistance near 0.7190-0.7220. Technical indicators support this scenario, as daily and monthly RSIs point to upward momentum, and AUD/USD continues to trade above its rising 10-, 21-, and 200-day moving averages.
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the latest wave of JPY intervention.

JP Morgan Research discusses the latest wave of JPY intervention.

"Japan's MOF appears to have conducted yen-buying intervention again on July 31, following intervention on the 30th. It is highly likely that this year's total intervention amount has already far exceeded the 2024 amount of JPY 15 trillion...The cooperative posture of US and Japanese authorities to prevent yen depreciation appears to be considerably stronger than we had expected," JPM notes.

"The impact of intervention flows on supply-demand dynamics is unlikely to be very large, and the effectiveness of intervention is expected to depend largely on the announcement effect...Given that neither Japan nor the United States appears to have a strong intention to push USD/JPY sharply lower, we see a low likelihood that coordinated intervention would lead to major yen appreciation that takes USD/JPY below 150. Accordingly, for now we maintain our existing USD/JPY targets (3Q26: 160, 4Q26: 164, 2Q27: 164)," JPM ads.

(Repeats with no changes)

Aug 4 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Tuesday 4 August

• EUR/USD: 1.1395-00 (1.1BLN), 1.1420-25 (415M), 1.1430-35 (674M)

• 1.1450-55 (2.6BLN), 1.1500 (1.4BLN), 1.1550-60. (1.1BLN)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 (431M), 157.00 (770M), 157.60 (290M), 158.00-10 (580M)

• 158.50 (281M), 159.00 (540M), 159.75 (280M), 160.00 (443M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD rose 1.1354-1.1559 where rally became stretched

• The top of the 20-Day Bollinger bands is 1.1533

• Traders built $10 billion short between Jun 30 and Jul 28

• EUR/USD traded below 1.1482 in that period

• Range since Fed/BOJ intervention 1.1500-1.1559

• The 100-DMA is a likely trigger point for buy stops

• Joint action to support yen may be very damaging for US dollar

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable consolidating quietly, spot pinned in a tight 1.3422-40 range

• Key downside support at 1.3390-1.3400 (200-day MAs), topside resistance at 1.3500

• Oil stabilising after yesterday's selloff, should cap GBP/USD upside on rebounds

• Little to suggest a breakout ahead of Friday's payrolls print

• Price action continues to favour a near-term rangebound setup
GBPUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Washington and Tokyo yen-buying is a strong signal, analysts say

• There is nervousness over renewed US-Japan intervention

• USD/JPY has seen a 157.22-157.84 rise, on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• The long-tail on Monday's candle points to a rejection of USD/JPY's downside

• The latest recovery could well be limited by 158.56 Fibo resistance

• 158.56 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 163.99 to 155.20 (July to August) drop

• Recent rounds of intervention puts USD/JPY on course for 2026 152.10 low retest

• Note the 152.10 low was printed on EBS back in January

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects is to its in last bullet)

• Traders were betting on the euro rising until July 3

• They were short of euros when BOJ/Fed intervened on Jul 31

• EUR/USD has risen above levels where traders established shorts

• $10.3 billion short is largest bearish wager since 2020

• The larger the FX bet, the greater its influence on currencies

•
EURUSD and betting


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Tuesday 4 August

• EUR/USD: 1.1395-00 (1.1BLN), 1.1420-25 (415M), 1.1430-35 (674M)

• 1.1450-55 (2.6BLN), 1.1500 (1.4BLN), 1.1550-60. (1.1BLN)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 (431M), 157.00 (770M), 157.60 (290M), 158.00-10 (580M)

• 158.50 (281M), 159.00 (540M), 159.75 (280M), 160.00 (443M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Fitzroy River rise as much as 6.7% to A$0.240, hitting their highest level since mid-July 2014

• Shares mark their biggest intraday pct gain since June 5

• Oil and gas mineral investment holding co appoints financial adviser for potential divestment of royalty interest in Bowdens Silver Project, Australia

• More than 438,700 shares change hands, about 6x the 30-day average

• YTD, stock up 50%, including session's moves

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD +0.3% Tue with AU household spending defying rate-hike pressure

• Annual household spending +6.0% in Jun as the fuel crisis lifted EV demand

• DXY +0.6% from Mon 99.42 low as immediate JPY intervention fears dissipate

• Oil prices fall despite inconsistent claims about U.S.-Iran peace talks

• AUD pushing upper hourly Bollinger band, topside may be limited short term

• Failure to break 0.7035 cleanly will consign pair to fresh downside drift

• Range Asia 0.6997-0.70235 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY buoyant but holding for the most part below 158.00

• Asia range so far 157.22-73 EBS, still below 157.99 200-DMA

• Spot however creeping back into descending hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Cloud currently 157.63-159.47, ascending tenkan 157.20 below, kijun 156.58

• Tech resistance from well ahead of cloud top, 160.16 descending 100-HMA?

• Market still on tenterhooks over possible Japan-US FX intervention

• Rate checks by either authorities would have an impact too

• Most continue to see sideways action on 157 ahead of 158

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Adds Chart)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Tue, trading subdued in wake of volatile start to week

• AU household spending: Jun +0.8% (prior +1.3%), Q2 +0.7% (prior +0.7%)

• DXY +0.6% from Mon 99.42 low as immediate JPY intervention fears dissipate

• Oil prices retreat despite inconsistent reports of U.S.-Iran peace talks

• AUD fades back below 0.7017 55-DMA, drift toward 0.6920 support looks likely

• Range Asia 0.6997-0.7007 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/KRW bobbed up to end Mon just above Fibo support

• Last 1429.5, perched above 61.8% retracement at 1429.0

• Spikes to be capped by 1443.9 ceiling of downtrend channel

• Following USD/JPY rebound, most USD/AXJ trade firmer

• But possibility of further yen intervention can't be discounted

• S. Korea July inflation data weaker than expected
KRW


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/CNH rebounded significantly late Mon to end 6.7581

• Broad USD recovery against Asia FX cued by USD/JPY bounce

• USD/CNH now at ceiling of Bollinger downtrend channel

• Tues close above 6.7585 would nullify bearish momentum

• Descent slowing for now, as yen intervention fears subside

• Trump says Iran talks underway but Iran denies
CNH


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Repeats with no changes) The dollar index rebounded from a six-week low on Monday as Treasury yields pared losses after ISM data showed U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than four years, while oil prices stabilized at lower levels after Iran said no talks with the U.S. were under way, contradicting claims by President Donald Trump once attacks were called off. Trump criticized Iran for seeking talks while publicly denying them and renewed pressure on oil companies to lower U.S. gasoline prices. Iran said earlier it has been discussing with Oman creating a new route through the Strait of Hormuz. New York Fed President John Williams said inflation is still expected to ease gradually, but the Fed is prepared to raise rates if price pressures fail to moderate. Tech shares rose after the Trump administration invited AI firms to review a finalized oversight framework.

Yen stability after last week's coordinated intervention and broad dollar gains helped DXY move back above its 100-day moving average (DMA) at 99.73 and lower Bollinger Band. EUR/USD looks set to consolidate below 100-DMA cluster 1.1540-68 into Friday's payrolls report, with risks skewed lower unless U.S. jobs data disappoints. EUR/CHF remained constructive, aided by Swiss CPI matching expectations, broader risk appetite and euro zone factory output growing at its fastest pace in 4-1/2 years in July. GBP/USD stayed under pressure beneath 1.35 as falling oil and gilt yields offset support from narrowing Fed-BoE policy expectations and short-covering flows. USD/JPY rebounded toward 157 on stronger U.S. data and risk appetite, but intervention concerns and improved yen sentiment may cap near 158, leaving the pair broadly range-bound between 155 and 158 ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs report. AUD/USD was vulnerable to a deeper pullback toward 0.6950 and possibly the 200-DMA area near 0.6920 as CNH eased unless Friday's payrolls report revives upside momentum. CNH edged down for a second day after data showed China's manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in four months and despite last week's Politburo pledge of stronger policy support.

Treasury yields dropped about 4 to 6 basis points (bps). The 2s-10s curve fell about 3 bps to +42.3 bps.

The S&P 500 gained 1.56%.

WTI oil dropped nearly 6%.

Gold was nearly flat while copper rose about 0.8%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.16%, USD/JPY -0.31%, GBP/USD -0.41%, AUD/USD -0.34%, DXY +0.09%, EUR/JPY -0.60%, GBP/JPY -0.87%, AUD/JPY -0.81%.(Editing by Terence Gabriel Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research previews the July US jobs report due on Friday.

"The jobs data was a bit softer in June compared to the prior few months but remains consistent with stabilisation in the labour market. We expect NFP to firm a bit to +75k in July, up from +57k last month and still a solid pace in the current environment in which the breakeven rate has dropped sharply, even if this would still be below the March through May period," CACIB notes.

"Overall, we see this as consistent with stabilisation but not re-acceleration. Elsewhere in the report, we look for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2% with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% MoM to result in an unchanged YoY pace of 3.5%," CACIB adds.

• AUD/USD -0.3% late Mon as DXY recovers early losses to finish +0.15%

• U.S. Jul ISM manufacturing PMI 55.6 (poll 54.0), a more than four-year high

• Brent crude -5.0% on Iran peace hopes despite conflicting claims of talks

• AU Jun & Q2 household spending due Tue (prior +1.3%, +0.7% respectively)

• AUD failure to hold above 0.7025 creates possibility of fall toward 0.6920

• Overnight range 0.6984-0.7028 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885
AUD Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar index rebounded from a six-week low on Monday as Treasury yields pared losses after ISM data showed U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than four years, while oil prices stabilized at lower levels after Iran said no talks with the U.S. were under way, contradicting claims by President Donald Trump once attacks were called off. Trump criticized Iran for seeking talks while publicly denying them and renewed pressure on oil companies to lower U.S. gasoline prices. Iran said earlier it has been discussing with Oman creating a new route through the Strait of Hormuz. New York Fed President John Williams said inflation is still expected to ease gradually, but the Fed is prepared to raise rates if price pressures fail to moderate. Tech shares rose after the Trump administration invited AI firms to review a finalized oversight framework.

Yen stability after last week's coordinated intervention and broad dollar gains helped DXY move back above its 100-day moving average (DMA) at 99.73 and lower Bollinger Band. EUR/USD looks set to consolidate below 100-DMA cluster 1.1540-68 into Friday's payrolls report, with risks skewed lower unless U.S. jobs data disappoints. EUR/CHF remained constructive, aided by Swiss CPI matching expectations, broader risk appetite and euro zone factory output growing at its fastest pace in 4-1/2 years in July. GBP/USD stayed under pressure beneath 1.35 as falling oil and gilt yields offset support from narrowing Fed-BoE policy expectations and short-covering flows. USD/JPY rebounded toward 157 on stronger U.S. data and risk appetite, but intervention concerns and improved yen sentiment may cap near 158, leaving the pair broadly range-bound between 155 and 158 ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs report. AUD/USD was vulnerable to a deeper pullback toward 0.6950 and possibly the 200-DMA area near 0.6920 as CNH eased unless Friday's payrolls report revives upside momentum. CNH edged down for a second day after data showed China's manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in four months and despite last week's Politburo pledge of stronger policy support.

Treasury yields dropped about 4 to 6 basis points (bps). The 2s-10s curve fell about 3 bps to +42.3 bps.

The S&P 500 gained 1.56%.

WTI oil dropped nearly 6%.

Gold was nearly flat while copper rose about 0.8%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.16%, USD/JPY -0.31%, GBP/USD -0.41%, AUD/USD -0.34%, DXY +0.09%, EUR/JPY -0.60%, GBP/JPY -0.87%, AUD/JPY -0.81%.(Editing by Terence Gabriel Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ soft in NY afternoon trading -0.44% at 1.3426; Monday range 1.3505-1.3423

• Early GBP bid on wave of USD, EUR intervention-related selling versus JPY abated

• Oil down more than 5%, gilt yields down near-10bp in 2-10-yr part of curve weighs

• Fed-BoE short-term rate convergence, IMM spec short unwinds likely supports

• LSEG'S IRPR sees Fed 68% odds for hike in Sept, near-100% in Oct; BoE 70% odds for Dec hike

• GBP$ supt 1.3423 Monday low, 1.3400 psychological lvl/200-DMA, 1.3352 30-DMA

• Res 1.3500/05 psychological lvl/Mon high, 1.3534 upper 30-d Bolli, 1.3610 May 12 high

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research on the key 155 level in USD/JPY post the US-Japan joint intervention.

"We believe a break below ¥155 could trigger a meaningful shift in market dynamics. If ¥155 holds, market participants are likely to continue viewing it as a floor and may re-establish short-yen positions. Conversely, a sustained move below ¥155 could trigger stop-loss selling in USD/JPY," BofA notes.

"In addition, the latest BOJ Tankan survey showed that Japanese corporates are assuming USD/JPY levels in the ¥152s for the current fiscal year. It is reasonable to infer that ¥150 and ¥155 are among the most widely used planning assumptions. Given the strengthening consensus for yen weakness this year, hedge ratios may have declined. A break below ¥155 could therefore encourage corporate hedgers to shift toward selling USD/JPY on rallies rather than sitting on USD/JPY carry," BofA adds.

• EUR/CHF remains constructive, with focus turning back to the YTD high at 0.9350

• Swiss CPI matched expectations, though the print was softer than the prior month

• Broader risk appetite should remain the key driver for CHF direction near term

• Initial resistance is seen at 0.9350, with a break opening 0.9395-0.9400

• Support comes in at 0.9265, then 0.9220-30 (200-day MAs)
EURCHF daily chart


Swiss CPI


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

HSBC Research discusses the latest wave of JPY intervention.

"It is unclear why the US Treasury decided to sell EUR-JPY rather than USD-JPY. There could be greater clarity given by Bessent in the coming days. However, it is possible that the US Treasury wants to limit the downward pressure on the USD, as further currency weakness could lead to higher US Treasury yields . The weekly release of the US’s international reserves (7 August) will tell us how EUR (USD26bn as of 24 July) and JPY assets (USD11.5bn) have changed," HSBC notes.

"Additional rounds of US-Japan FX intervention could occur. It is also possible that other central banks decide to join. The ECB has been quiet so far on the matter, but if it were to intervene as well, this would look like an implicit currency accord to strengthen the JPY. Still, doubts would persist on the sustainability of a JPY recovery when the BoJ is measured at raising rates," HSBC adds.