MUFG Research previews tonight's October RBNZ meeting.

"First up in the schedule of G10 central bank announcements this week is the RBNZ which will announce later tonight, and the rates market is nearly fully priced for a 25bp hike. NZD is the third best performing G10 currency this month and a hawkish hike is what is required for that currency performance to continue – three rate hikes in total are priced by March so strong guidance supporting that pricing is required," MUFG notes.

"We expect the RBNZ to deliver tonight but ultimately under-deliver what is priced. We expect only one further hike to 3.25% – the market pricing implies 3.5 additional hikes after tonight’s. Q3 inflation was a little weaker than expected and that likely highlights the level of spare capacity in the New Zealand economy that won’t require what market pricing implies. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.6% in Q2, the highest level since Q3 2015. Risks are skewed to the downside for NZD and even if the RBNZ does deliver a hawkish hike, investors will at some point likely question the extent of hikes priced. We expect NZD to underperform over the forecast period ahead," MUFG adds.

• AUD/USD +0.2% from Tue 0.70099 low despite resurgent USD index (+0.4% Tue)

• AU Q3 CPI release 0030 GMT, Reuters poll consensus 1.2% q/q, +3.9% y/y

• Contingent of RBA officials (including Bullock) before senate committee Wed

• FOMC widely expected to hold FFR steady Wed, dialogue will be critical

• WTI -1.7% as Middle East peace hopes temper supply fears for time being

• AUD sellers between 0.7033 100-DMA & 0.7055 200-DMA capping topside moves

• Range Asia 0.70125-40 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7053 0.7282
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar rose against most of its G10 peers on Tuesday as buoyant risk sentiment and upbeat US data lifted Treasury 2-year yields ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy decision.

Meta Platforms raised its equity offerings to a record $97.5 billion, with the common stock offering five times oversubscribed, Bloomberg reported.

Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in September, while stronger-than-expected August home prices, firmer October regional Fed surveys and higher weekly Redbook sales underscored resilient US domestic demand.

Oil prices eased as optimism over Middle East peace efforts offset concerns about Strait of Hormuz shipping risks and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia facilities.

Qatar said Iran must demonstrate good intentions for mediation efforts to succeed following talks in Tehran.

The dollar index continues to trend higher in light turnover after clearing its 21-DMA at 101.99, with risk reversals showing growing demand for dollar upside across maturities.

EUR/USD was pressured below its 10- and 21-DMAs amid firmer Treasury yields, exposing its 1.1135 lower Bollinger after slipping under the 1.1140 level.

GBP/USD drifted lower, but light pre-event positioning ahead of the UK Budget and Fed meeting, coupled with expectations for a November BoE hike, helped anchor the pair above 1.3300.

USD/JPY held a firm tone near the 21-DMA at 157.90, with a break above 158.00 targeting the cloud top at 158.44 and 200-DMA at 158.55, while a drop below the Tenkan-sen at 157.32 would expose the lower end of the 156.98-158.89 Bollinger range.

AUD/USD was supported above 0.70 by firmer CNH and metals, ending just below its 0.7040 high and 100-DMA ahead of Australian CPI, while AUD/NZD edged higher into an RBNZ decision.

USD/CAD moved above its 100-DMA at 1.4046 ahead of Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision, recovering after Friday's brief break below 1.4000

Treasury yields rose as much as 2 basis points as the curve flattened. The 2s-10s curve dipped 1 basis point to +25.7bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.52%, fueled again by tech shares.

WTO oil fell 1.8%, dipping below $100/bbl.

Gold rose 0.99% while copper gained 1.73%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.33%, USD/JPY +0.28%, GBP/USD -0.22%, AUD/USD +0.16%, DXY +0.34%, EUR/JPY -0.04%, GBP/JPY +0.09%, AUD/JPY +0.44%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1150 after 1.1177-1.1136 traded overnight

• Early rally toward 1.1155 met sellers as USD, US yields

rallied

• The pair then fell even as gold, silver, stocks rallied & USD/CNH neared 6.6635

• EUR/USD fell below 1.1140 during NY's afternoon, traded down -0.30%

• Techs are bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair below 10- & 21-DMAs

• Widening Bollinger bands reinforce the bearish tech signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research likes long USD/JPY exposure as a strategic hedge against further rise in global bond yields. 

"JPY is the G10 currency most negatively exposed to increases in average global yields. This property of JPY supports our preference for USD/JPY longs, particularly given the limited room for the BoJ to deliver a hawkish surprise relative to market expectations," MS notes.

"We estimate USD/JPY fair value above 170, suggesting continued upside potential if US-Japan yield differentials widen further," MS adds.

• Cable dips towards 1.3308 ahead of the London fix (4pm GMT)

• 1.3308 was one-week low during the London morning

• Last week's low was 1.3300 (before rally to 1.3418, five-week high)

• US Oct consumer confidence index 91.7 vs 81.0 forecast

• Fed rate hold expected on Wednesday. UK budget on Wednesday too

• US core PCE data due on Thursday. BoE rate hike expected next week

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews tomorrow's October FOMC decision.

"BofA economists are the market outlier in their call for an Oct hike.. We agree the Fed should hike, but markets price a Fed willing to wait until after the election, especially given rising credit risks. Ultimately, persistent inflation could drive further Fed tightening," BofA notes

"USD risks skew to the downside on a hold. A convincing, hawkish hold could leave the USD and rates broadly near current levels, while a dovish or poorly explained hold risks renewed Fed credibility concerns, bear steepening in 2s30s and potentially significant USD weakness," BofA adds.

• Ether traded 2295.49-2337.20 overnight, near 2320.00 early NY, up +0.81%

• It traded up slightly despite USD buying & US yield

gains

• Equity gains & gold, silver rallies off their lows helped buoy Ether

• Despite Ether's gains the technical picture does not bode well for bulls

• Ether is currently consolidating its drop from the October 21 daily high

• It trades below the 10- & 50-DMAs, monthly RSI indicates downward momentum

• The 38.2% Fib of the 1510.95-2805.45 rally is acting magnetically for now

• 200-DMA, 50% Fib of 1510.95-2805.45 eyed if consolidation resolves downward
eth

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews tomorrow's October FOMC decision.

"Comments from FOMC participants since their last meeting point to a compromise to raise the funds rate every other meeting. This means that the FOMC is set to skip raising rates at its October meeting but is likely to deliver a second hike in December," GS notes.

"We do not expect significant new information from the press conference. The seemingly strong support for hiking every other meeting means there is likely a high bar to deviate from that plan through the end of the year, which should limit the impact of Fed communication for now," GS adds.

• 1.1177-1.1136 traded overnight, NY opened near 1.1150, down -0.24%

• Drops in US yields , oil , USD/CNH couldn't inspire bulls

• Broad-based USD buying & drops in gold, silver weighed down EUR/USD

• The pair's recent drop now has technicals leaning towards the bearish camp

• Daily, monthly RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair is below 10- & 21-DMAs

• Widening 15-month Bollinger bands reinforce the bearish tech signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• 0.7010-0.7036 traded overnight, NY opened near 0.7030, up +0.24%

• AUD/USD rallied despite general USD strength, drops in gold, silver

• US yield , USD/CNH drops & copper, stock gains buoyed AUD/USD

• The pair's resiliencey in the face of UD strength has techs flashing bull signals

• Daily, monthly RSIs indicate upward momentum, pair above 10- & 21-DMAs

• Ongoing consolidation of rally off Oct. 15 low, monhtly bull hammer add to bull signs
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD down 1.1235 to 1.1152 this week

• The year low is 1.1113

• The 200-WMA is 1.1108 - pair above this since Apr 2025

• A 50% retrace 1.0125-1.2084 2025-2026 rally is 1.1105

• Target for a break below 1.1105 is 1.0873

• Potential sell signal if 21WMA falls below 100-WMA

• EUR/USD set to close below a vital level, big losses likely

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD maintains 0.70 handle before Australian Q3 CPI data at 0030 GMT

• Up 1.2% QQ, 3.9% YY forecast. Core forecast at 1.0% QQ, 3.6% YY

• Hotter than expected data would raise risk of RBA rate rise next week

• It might also inflate AUD/USD towards 0.71 (last at 0.71 on Sept 23)

• Markets currently see 65% chance of RBA hike on Nov 3

• Two-day Fed meeting gets underway later; rate hold expected Wednesday

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD is trading below the 100-MMA at 1.1194

• Pair slumped rough 1.19 toward 0.95 on last closing break below

• The 100-MMA then capped EUR/USD for several years

• Immediate target for a break is 1.0873

• Potentially EUR/USD could retrace entire 1.0125-1.2084 rise

• Much higher oil weighing EUR/USD and vital level for crude close

•
EUR/USD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.3317 as dollar strengthens before two-day Fed meeting starts

• 1.3317 is one-week low. Bids likely near 1.3300 (last week's low)

• Oct 22 low of 1.3355 is now a resistance level (1.3346 was Asia high)

• UK's minimum wage to rise nearly 4%, Times reports. UK budget on Wednesday

• British Retail Consortium warns "dam is starting to break" on price rises

• Bank of England is expected to raise its policy rate to 4% next week (Nov 5)

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of FireFly Metals rise as much as 10.1% to A$1.42, their highest level since October 16

• Copper-gold explorer reports high-grade copper-gold discovery at Mount Joy prospect within its Green Bay project in Canada

• FFM last up 7.2%, on track for best day since early August

• Stock down 32.2% YTD, including moves in current session

(Reporting by Swetha Lakshmi in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD unchanged in Asia after closing 0.2% lower Mon on broad dollar rally

• Inability to post gains despite positive risk sentiment, lower oil weighs

• Repeated failures at 55-day MA, currently at 1.3408, leads to momentum loss

• Caution ahead of UK budget & Fed rate decision on Wed likely to cap rallies

• Mindful of the markets, UK's Healey is set to deliver a careful budget

• Britain's minimum wage to rise nearly 4%, Times reports

• UK retail body warns 'dam is starting to break' on price rises

• Resistance 1.3360, 1.3390-1.3400, support 1.3325, 1.3300-05, 1.3280

• Monday range 1.3326-1.3388, Asia 1.3335-1.3346
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Perseus Mining fall as much as 5% to A$5.310,

• Stock is among the top losers in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index , which was last down 0.1%

• The gold miner reports September-quarter gold production of 92,551 ounces, down from 109,013 ounces in the June quarter

• Average realised sales price declined to $3,881 per ounce from $4,086 per ounce in the previous quarter

• YTD, stock down 5.6%, including the session's moves

(Reporting by Paridhi Minda in Bengaluru)

• USD bid across the board overnight, USD/JPY to 157.66 EBS, haven flows?

• USD demand could be related to Anthropic AI filing, Wall Street rises

• Asia so far 157.46-60, to middle of 156.14-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud

• 200 and 100-DMAs above cloud at 158.54 and 159.29, respectively

• Spot back above hourly Ichi cloud, 100-HMA at 157.35, 200-HMA 157.72 above

• Massive option expiries in area today to help contain spot again?

• 157.00 $1 bln, 157.50 $884 mln, 157.75-85 $3.2 bln, 158.00 $1.5 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials little changed, down from recent highs

• Markets obviously concerned over central bank announcements this week

• Hawkish hold likely from BOJ, Fed hold but hawkish? ECB seen standing pat

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat Tue, activity muted as investors calibrate positions pre-FOMC

• FOMC widely expected to hold pat on FFR, accompanying dialogue critical

• Futures pricing implies strong possibility of post-election Fed hike Dec 9

• AU Q3 CPI release due Wed, Reuters poll consensus 1.2% q/q, +3.9% y/y

• RBA officials (including Governor Bullock) before senate committee Wed

• AUD sellers between 0.7033 100-DMA & 0.7053 200-DMA limits upside potential

• WTI -0.3% to $101.46 a barrel as Saudi defence pact seeks peace in Tehran

• Range Asia 0.70099-185 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7053 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NZD/USD -0.4% from Mon 0.5706 high as markets calibrate ahead of RBNZ & Fed

• RBNZ monetary policy meeting outcome due Wed, 25 bps hike widely anticipated

• FOMC outcome and associated dialogue also due Wed, will be closely watched

• Brent crude down 1.3% to $115.19 a barrel on Saudi-Iran peace hopes

• NZD remains clear of 0.5637 21-DMA, targets move toward 0.5765-70 zone

• Range NZ 0.56809-85, support 0.5566 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research previews the October FOMC decision on Wednesday.

"We expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates unchanged at the October meeting, in line with consensus. Markets price in a 15-25% probability of a hike.  Most central FOMC members have signalled they can wait until December before hiking again, though a few see more urgency. We expect 2-3 votes for a hike," Danske notes.

"We expect the FOMC to hike rates gradually, with 25bp in December 2026 and March 2027, and risks skewed towards more hikes.

EUR/USD could tick modestly higher, and UST curve could steepen on Wednesday evening, but in 6-12M horizon, we forecast EUR/USD declining to 1.10," Danske adds.

• AUD/USD -0.3% from Mon 0.70395 high despite marginal lift in risk sentiment

• WTI -1.8% to $101.47 a barrel as Saudi defence pact seeks peace in Tehran

• AU Q3 CPI release due Wed, Reuters poll consensus 1.2% q/q, +3.9% y/y

• FOMC outcome and accompanying dialogue Wed will be closely watched

• AUD continues to encounter sellers between 0.7033 100-DMA & 0.7053 200-DMA

• Overnight range 0.7013-39 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7053 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar rose on Monday, supported by higher US two-year Treasury yields ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, gains in US technology shares following Anthropic's IPO filing, and weakness in the Brazilian real after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's election victory.

Improving OAT-Bund yield spreads after Moody's left France's credit rating unchanged last week also helped support risk sentiment.

The US central bank is widely expected to leave policy rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4%.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Iran's Massoud Pezeshkian and Qatar's Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Moscow. Meanwhile concerns over a potential Hezbollah escalation added to geopolitical risk.

Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iranian counterparts in Tehran to ease regional tensions as Yemen's Houthis launched fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia.

British finance minister John Healey will announce plans to increase the minimum wage by nearly 4%, The Times newspaper reported on Monday.

Turnover was uneven ahead of this week's central bank meetings and month-end flows, with the dollar index briefly pushing above its 21-DMA at 101.94 shortly after the US equity open.

EUR/USD retained a softer tone below 1.1200 as higher EU gas prices and limited demand for euros weighed on sentiment, with support at 1.1173 and resistance at 1.1235 ahead of the Fed and ECB decisions.

GBP/USD held above 1.3326 support, underpinned by risk appetite and easing fiscal concerns, but remains capped near 1.3360 as markets await Wednesday's Fed decision.

USD/JPY remained constructive above the lower Bollinger at 156.90 as the dollar and shares advanced though its 55-DMA at 157.71 and 21-DMA at 157.88 may limit gains, keeping the pair centered within its 156.06-158.44 daily cloud.

AUD/USD consolidated below its 100-DMA at 0.7033, with support at 0.7000 as traders await Australia's Q3 CPI, where a strong print could lift the pair toward 0.7100 while a miss risks a return to 0.6900.

Treasury yields were mixed as the curve flattened, with a soft auction pressuring two-year notes. The 2s-10s curve fell about 4 basis points to +27.3bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.75%.

WTI oil slipped 1.4% though held above $100/bbl

Gold rose 0.47% while copper gained 0.62%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.17%, USD/JPY +0.36%, GBP/USD -0.14%, AUD/USD -0.13%, DXY +0.13%, EUR/JPY +0.17%, GBP/JPY +0.18%, AUD/JPY +0.17%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)