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By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 14 - 02:00 PM
  • Pair opens NY near 0.6950 after rallying from 21-DMA in Europe nL2N2EL0KP

  • Gains early but pair quickly dips near 0.6935 as stocks turn lower

  • Risk-on takes hold again; stocks gain while copper HGv1 trades firmly

  • Safe-haven US$ & yen sold, AUD/JPY nears 74.80, AUD/USD pierces 0.6975

  • 0.6900/0.7000 consolidation, rising RSIs, 21-DMA support are bullish techs

  • AU June jobs, China June sales & output, Q2 GDP are looming data risks

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 14 - 12:00 PM

Nomura Research discusses its expectations for the EU Summit on Friday.

"The July EU summit more 50/50 on whether a deal is agreed. If a deal is agreed– it will likely be a compromise if it is – but should help keep EUR supported. If EU leaders were to schedule an August summit this would help alleviate any disappointment, as there is no summit planned until October after this month’s meeting. Europe’s mobility trends remain encouraging, with signs of a slowdown in the mobility in the US," Nomura notes. 

"When it comes to QE – all three central banks (ECB, the Fed and BoE) have slowed down their purchases, but the ECB has remained more consistent compared with the Fed and the BoE that have tapered their purchases substantially. On top of that ETF inflows from foreign investors, higher euro area growth expectations vs the US, better COVID-19 and mobility trends in Europe and US policy uncertainty should keep EUR/USD supported in our view," Nomura adds. 

Nomura Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 14 - 01:30 PM
  • GBP/USD ending NorAm near flat at 1.2550; NY range 1.2555-1.2480

  • Pair reversed early NY drop after UK GDP est misses nL8N2DP0UF

  • UK GDP miss sets sterling up for test of Fib support by 1.2460 nL2N2EL0YE

  • Pair bounced near 21-DMA (1.2485) after break below 30-DMA (1.2532)

  • Bullish structure weakens as UK GDP miss adds to GBP's Brexit woes

  • Res firm by recent highs 1.2660's, bears gain traction sub-50% Fib at 1.2460

  • Irish deputy PM sees Brexit deal but maybe not until Dec nS8N2DU04S

  • EUR/GBP +0.51% to 0.9084; Tues range 0.9113-0.9035 on exp'd EU budget, aid deal

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 14 - 10:45 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees GBP close to an attractive selling zone around current levels.

"In the UK, there should be bigger focus on labour market and inflation data, to be released later this week, we expect incoming data to continue highlighting the challenges ahead for the Johnson government and the BoE," CACIB notes. 

"As such, we stay cautious on GBP and believe the currency is once again trading close to attractive selling territory," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 14 - 10:20 AM

GBP/USD remains offered, moving steadily lower, to a new 1-week low at 1.2480.
Today's UK May GDP estimates misses nL5N2EL137 are weighing on the pound versus the USD, EUR and yen.

The weak GDP data hints that anticipation of a V-shaped recovery off pandemic lows may have been premature.
Indeed, UK economic pundits are now eyeing more of a W-shape, with fits and starts, before a sustained recovery sets in.

Adding to the dour UK growth and inflation outlook is lingering uncertainty surrounding EU-UK trade talks.
The unsettled nature of the UK's economic relationship with its key trading partner is likely to inhibit investment.
This as foreign and domestic decisions on UK investment are delayed pending clarity on that future UK-EU trading relationship, post-Brexit's Dec.
31, 2020 deadline.

After three failed attempts, GBP/USD has backed away from its recent trend highs near 1.2670, just ahead of more firm resistance by its 200-DMA at 1.2702.
With UK GDP and Brexit expectations on the wane, GBP/USD bulls are exiting recent longs.
Tuesday's probe of 21-DMA support by 1.2483 opens the way for a test of 1.2460, the 50% Fibo of 1.2252-1.2668's June-July range, below which puts Jun.
29's 1.2252 low in sharper focus.

For more click on FXBUZ

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 14 - 09:30 AM

Credit Suisse discusses EUR/CHF outlook and maintains a bullish bias, expressing that via holding a long position targeting a move towards 1.10, with a stop at 1.0490.

"With deflation fears rising and the economic outlook deteriorating in Switzerland, the SNB will remain extremely dovish. We aim for 1.1000 in EURCHF and would consider ourselves wrong at 1.0490," CS notes. 

"A second coronavirus wave, a no-deal Brexit, geopolitical and trade war tensions between the US and China or a tight US election race pose downside risks to our view," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 14 - 08:37 AM

Citi discusses its expectations for the ECB policy meeting on Thursday and the EU Council on Friday.

"At Thursday’s ECB meeting, we expect President Lagarde to stay the course, without major dovish or hawkish changes in communication, in contrast to some recent hawkish noises. We think there is a good chance that the ECB raises the tiering multiplier which could push up EUR and short-term market rates temporarily," Citi notes. 

"We expect Friday’s EU Council to arrive at broad agreement on the EU Recovery Fund. However, there it’s also plausible that the negotiations are not concluded, which would only be short-term disappointment, as eventual agreement remains very likely.

We continue to see EURUSD upside in coming weeks," Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 14 - 07:10 AM
  • EUR/CHF has traded a 38 pip EBS range thus far Tuesday, 1.0652-1.0690

  • Relatively wide range follows Monday's jump to an EBS high of 1.0702

  • 1.0702 = highest level since June 23 (1.0710 was EBS high that day)

  • EUR/CHF plumbed a six-week low close to 1.0600 last Friday nL1N2EH0BV

  • SNB chairman Jordan is due to speak in Zurich at 1330GMT nL1N2EH0I2

  • SNB intervention is a major source of support for EUR/CHF nL1N2EE0BR

EURCHF Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jul 14 - 06:05 AM
  • EUR/GBP has jumped 1.6% in 24 hours

  • Rapid pace of rally is evidence of distressed betting (short squeeze)

  • A bullish situation has rapidly evolved

  • Pair rising over 0.9085 61.8% of drop from end-June peak at 0.9175

  • 76.4% same move and door to 0.9175 is 0.9120

  • A rising daily ichimoku cloud may support higher ranges

  • Another month-end rally is likely. Cloud top 0.8995 end-Jul, 0.9053 by Aug 5

  • Related EUR/USD comments nL2N2EL0B6nL2N2EL0CZ

EUR/GBP Ichimoku Click here

EUR/GBP Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 14 - 04:55 AM
  • GBP continues to suffer on May's UK GDP miss, with cable down to 1.2506

  • 1.2506 = one-week low. 1.2539 was Asian session base, pre-UK GDP data

  • See: nL2N2EL09AnL5N2EL137. EUR/GBP up to test 0.9068 (last week's high)

  • More UK data due Wednesday and Thursday; CPI and jobs/earnings nL2N2EK0CA

  • Cable support points sub-1.25 include 1.2483 (21DMA) and 1.2463 (July 7 low)

  • UK set to ban Huawei from 5G, angering China and pleasing Trump nL5N2EL15K

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 14 - 04:05 AM
  • EUR 6-billion option expiries between 1.1300-55 Tuesday NY cut nL2N2EL07E

  • That's a huge amount and can have a significant impact on price action

  • Dealers reduce exposure to strikes by trading cash around them

  • Helps contain spot pre expiry - bigger strike equals increased cash hedging

  • Implied volatility/option costs have increased last 24 hours however

  • Dealers wary of increased actual volatility/topside exposure going forward

  • Related comment nL2N2EL09R

EURUSD option expiries Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 14 - 02:35 AM
  • Significant rise in cost to protect against EUR/USD volatility

  • 1-week implied vol up 1.0 to 8.5, 1-month 0.4 to 7.05 - new July highs

  • Topside still seen most vulnerable - option costs gained with spot

  • Renewed demand for short dated high strike protection Monday nL2N2EK0CH

  • More big expiries Tues nL2N2EL07E, huge expiries have been dominating

  • However, many now gone, effect wanes through late July nL1N2EH0KV

1-week and 1-month EUR/USD implied volatility Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Jul 14 - 01:45 AM
  • AUD/USD holds its ground in Asia despite broad decline in APAC stock markets

  • Resilience impressive but Sino-US tensions, California virus shutdown to cap

  • Repeated failures at 0.7000 weaken technical picture; need break higher soon

  • Wall Street's Monday reversal a warning for risk rally nL2N2EL01L

  • Tuesday's Nasdaq close watched for a potential USD trigger nL2N2EL02J

  • Strong demand for A$ bond sale, upbeat China trade data underpinnL3N2EK1HM

  • Resistance 0.6950-60, 0.6975-80,07000-05; support 0.6920-25, 0.6900-05

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Australia iron ore shipments to China: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 14 - 01:40 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.1300 (2.1BLN), 1.1305-10 (650M), 1.1320-25 (2BLN)

  • 1.1350-55 (1.3BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9550 (300M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2500 (256M), 1.2640 (250M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6850-55 (700M), 0.7080 (400M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3450 (500M), 1.3620-25 (525M)

  • USD/JPY: 106.50 (411M), 106.75 (605M), 107.00 (200M), 107.60-70 (500M)

  • AUD/JPY: 73.75-80 (530M), 74.00 (670M), 74.30 (260M)

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 13 - 11:40 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.16% lower at 0.6940 - easing late Wall Street slumped nL2N2EK22B

  • Pair traded in a 0.6926/47 range before settling unchanged around 0.6940

  • Low was traded when reports of US-China tensions weighed on risk nL2N2EK1IX

  • AUD/USD support at 21-day MA at 0.6912 and base of pennant at 0.6883

  • Resistance at top of pennant at 0.6989 and multiple tops at 0.6990/0.7000

  • AUD/USD appears close to breaking out after long period of consolidation

  • Next move will likely be determined by trend in equity markets

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 13 - 09:45 PM
  • AUD/USD hovering around 0.6940 and trading with a heavy tone

  • NAB business survey vastly improved, but having little impact nS9N2DS01I

  • ABS update on Australia employment also released with no impact nS9N2DS01J

  • Survey and data doesn't reflect recent move to lockdown Victoria

  • AUD/USD support at 21-day MA at 0.6912 and base of pennant at 0.6883

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jul 13 - 07:50 PM
  • Touch firmer after closing off 0.55% on hard Brexit fears nL5N2EJ050

  • UK consumer spending is showing signs of a slow recovery nL9N2DP00I

  • 'Worst-case' UK winter could see 120,000 COVID deaths nL5N2EK22W

  • Techs - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • 1.2664-01 key resistance held, upper 21 day Bolli, 76.4% June fall & 200 DMA

  • Topside failure suggests game changing news needed to break 1.2700

  • 1.2541 10 DMA then 1.2509, 38.2% June -July bounce initial support

    For more click on FXBUZ

gbp jul 14 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 13 - 07:20 PM
  • EUR the best performing currency on Monday - as EUR/USD opens 0.4% higher

  • EUR/GBP gained 0.90% while the EUR/JPY closed theday 0.73% higher

  • EUR/USD traded as high as 1.1374 before late fall on Wall Street capped

  • Pullback modest, as EUR sentiment is bullish ahead of ECB and EU meeting

  • EUR/USD resistance at June 10 high at 1.1422 with sellers ahead of 1.1400

  • Support at 10-day MA at 1.1292 and 21-day MA at 1.1263

  • EUR/USD trending higher with the 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in bullish alignment

  • EUR/JPY flows likely to dictate direction in Asia

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 13 - 06:15 PM
  • AUD/USD traded as high as 0.6993 when risk assets soared and USD eased

  • Wall Street slumped late in the session after California announced shutdown nL2N2EK0YN

  • AUD/USD followed risk assets lower to end the day 0.16% lower at 0.6939

  • The 0.7000 area proving difficult after three failed attempts

  • Pennant formed with top-line at 0.6989 and base-line at 0.6883

  • First support at the 21-day MA at 0.6912 and break would be bearish

  • NAB business survey and single-touch payroll data due today

  • Key to direction will be Asian equities and coronavirus related news

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 13 - 03:00 PM

Credit Agricole CIB Research adopts a neutral bias on EUR/CHF in the near-term, while staying long the cross as a structural trade targeting a move towards 1.15.

"While releases of late have confirmed the view that price growth will remain subject to downside risk, the SNB is in no rush to consider a change to its dovish policy stance. View wise, this should continue to help keep EUR/CHF around the current levels supported. More importantly to the cross, however will be any progress on the mostly grant-based EU rescue fund with any resolution likely to help the cross gain more traction," CACIB notes. 

"While our long-term view stays in favour of fading CHF strength, stable policy differentials are still keeping the cross broadly range-bound," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jul 13 - 02:30 PM
  • USD/JPY cleared pivotal 21-DMA & Friday's EBS high at 107.23/26

  • Gets lift from broad risk-on flows that weaken the haven yen

  • Dollar also heavy, but less than yen, both weak vs euro nL2N2EK0UP

  • But EUR/JPY needs a 121.87+ close to increase upside nL2N2EK0XD

  • USD/JPY needs a close above 107.23 to put in play 107.40 hurdles

  • Those include the daily tenkan/50% Fibo, 10-DMA and July 9 high

  • BOJ meets Wednesday, but stuck on hold. Thur-Fri event risks crucial

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 13 - 02:25 PM

Amends headline

  • Choppy European morning, NY opens near 0.6975, pair dips below 0.6965

  • Dip bought though as upbeat risk rallies equities, commodities & bond yields

  • US$ & yen sold, AUD/JPY nears 75.00, AUD/USD nears 0.6995 but rally stalls

  • Risk sours a bit after U.S. deficit figures are released nW1N2E200G

  • Much of NY gains erode, AUD/USD dips below 0.6970 late in the day

  • AUD/USD bulls struggle with 0.7000 should be a concern nL2N2EK12X

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 13 - 02:15 PM
  • Pair opens NY near 1.1335 after trading to a 1.1294 low (EBS) in Europe

  • Rally extends as equities, commodities, and bond yields rally nL2N2EK0L3

  • July 9 high breaks, bear tech signal from that day's candle gets negated

  • 1.1375 neared, very little pullback seen, pair near 1.1365 late

  • Techs are bullish, RSI imply upside momentum, 10-DMA exerts bull influence

  • ECB, EU Summit risks aren't side lining bulls nL2N2EK0UO

  • For more click on FXBUZ

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 13 - 01:30 PM

Societie Generale Research discusses the current market conditions and flags some of its current favorite trades.

"If you think the Nasdaq's current valuation is bonkers, you have to accept that the dollar's journey to a lower level won't be without some pretty big bumps along the way...A clear dollar downtrend will also require a change in the global equity market pecking order," SocGen notes. 

"Just as calling in the IMF in 1976 or making the Bank of England independent made sterling safe(r) and allowed it to recover, so too, agreement on the European Recovery Fund would go a long way to making the euro safer. But until there are clear home-grown reasons to own European assets, a major market correction would still be dollar-supportive...In the meantime, short GBP/SEK, long AUD/CAD, short USD/CHF and short USD/JPY are our favoured trades," SocGen adds. 

Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
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