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By Paul Spirgel  —  Sep 24 - 04:04 PM
  • USD spec long grows in Sep 15-21 period on EUR, CAD selling nL1N2QQ297

  • EUR slid 0.66% in period, specs sold 15,710 contracts now long 12,095

  • USD/JPY fell 0.44% in period specs +4,224 contracts now -56,071

  • USD/JPY rise after hawkish Fed may prod long $/JPY selling in current period

  • GBP/USD fell 1%, specs -5,008 contracts flip to -218 contract

  • USD/CAD rose 0.9% in period specs sold 18,594 contracts now -27877

  • AUD -1.2% in period, specs sold 2,201 contract now short 85,584 contracts

  • BTC=BTSP fell 12% in period, specs +162 contracts short reduced to -1,025


IMM positions as of Sep 21: Click here

IMM Position Table: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Sep 24 - 03:34 PM
  • Major bullish USD/JPY rally from Wed's 109.11 Sept-Aug range lows

  • Now probing August's 110.80 swing high on EBS

  • Friday's range wholly above the daily cloud at 110.19

  • Weekly close above 110.54, 61.8% Fibo of 111.66-108725 July-Aug drop, a buy

  • Weekly Bollis widening from tightest since 2014 suggests a major move

  • 2021's 111.66 high from July eyed. 2020/19 highs are at 112.21/39

  • 21-mo Bolli top and monthly cloud top are at 112.10/43

  • Good value on a pullback toward support by 110 if able

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Sep 24 - 01:42 PM
  • Sterling weak into NorAm close, -0.34% at 1.3675; NorAm range 1.3696-1.3660

  • Rising infl may prod BoE to hike early in 2022, but supply issues limit gain

  • Thursday hawkish BoE tones shrugged off, amid China crypto/Evergrande angst

  • Sterling resistance by 10DMA holds, recent lows by 1.36 in view nL1N2QQ1AG

  • GBP/USD res abv 10-DMA at daily cloud base 1.3761, then 200-DMA at 1.3862

  • Supt at Fri low 1.3660, lower 30-d Bolli at 1.3615, Jul 20 low 1.3573

  • EUR/GBP gains 0.19% to 0.8570, traders wary above 30-WMA by 0.8587, for now

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 24 - 01:30 PM

ANZ Research likes long AUD/NZD exposure in spot around current levels targeting a move towards 1.05.

"AUD/NZD has been particularly exposed to divergent monetary policy expectations between the RBA and RBNZ, and some structural adjustments in China that are weighing on hard commodities," ANZ notes. 

"On balance, we think some of the downside risks for AUD/NZD are beginning to ease. Firstly, while the RBNZ’s anticipated hikes (25bp in October and November, ~50bps through H1 2022) are well priced, Australia’s high vaccination rates should set the foundation for a Q4 recovery. On China, we think the AUD should see some stabilisation as markets re-assess property contagion risks," ANZ adds. 

ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 24 - 11:02 AM

EUR/USD longs were riding high on Thursday as the post-Fed risk-on theme fueled gains, but that rally stalled, leaving longs to confront a familiar set of risks ranging from China to technicals.

Investors' concerns about a potential default by China Evergrande group nL1N2QQ02J drove risk-off sentiment on Friday, which led to safe-having dollar buying, helping turn EUR/USD away from the 10-day moving average and negative on the session.

China's crackdown on cryptocurrencies nL1N2QQ0MG reinforced investors' anxiety, which drove them out of riskier plays.
Cryptocurrencies dropped sharply on China's policy moves nL1N2QQ0Z1, which had a spillover effect on equity and commodity prices.

The EUR/USD price action reinforced already bearish technicals.
The 10-DMA helped cap gains and daily RSI turned down again.
September's monthly inverted hammer candle and falling monthly RSI suggest EUR/USD shorts have the wind at their back.

EUR/USD shorts need a break and sustained hold below the 38.2% Fib of 1.0636-1.2349 and August monthly low to gain greater control and drive a test of key support near 1.1600.

A break below the 1.1600 area would suggest EUR/USD is due for a much deeper fall.

For more click on FXBUZ

eurusd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 24 - 10:45 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a scope for the return of G10 carry trade.

"We have long been arguing that the growing central bank policy divergence is the bedrock of FX carry trades. The higher-yielding NOK and the GBP (together with the NZD, CAD and AUD) have emerged as the best-performing G10 currencies, and the low-yielder JPY was the worst-performing currency in the wake of the policy meetings," CACIB notes. 

"As demand for carry trades grows from here, this should support the high-yielding NOK and CAD and, to a lesser degree, the NZD and AUD as well as the USD. The growing rate advantage of the GBP will be supportive as well, but we believe that persistent downside risks to the UK growth outlook will make any BoE policy normalisation more cautious and thus less supportive for the currency. We continue to view the JPY and CHF as the best funding currencies in G10 and expect them to emerge as the biggest underperformers in the medium term," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Sep 24 - 09:46 AM

Sterling slid 0.39% to 1.3668 as Thursday's hawkish BoE-related gains nL1N2QP0ME near 10-DMA resistance at 1.3735 unraveled in the face of Brexit and pandemic-related pressures on the economy, creating an opening for bears to target July 20's low of 1.3573.

Despite UK rate futures hinting the BoE may begin hiking rates as early as its Feb 2022 meeting BOEWATCH, Brexit-related labor shortages in addition to uncertainty surrounding COVID tempered GBP/USD gains.
U.S. rate futures also indicate that Fed hikes may outpace the BoE despite the UK's earlier liftoff.

USD haven flows gained momentum on lingering Evergrande worries and China's crackdown on cryptocurrency, in addition to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments Wednesday on Fed asset taper beginning in November 2021, data permitting, and being completed by mid-2022.

GBP/USD neared recent trend lows near 1.3573, trading near 1.36 three times since mid-July, with subsequent bounces shallow and unable to clear the daily cloud.
Thursday's high, at 1.3750, off of Wednesday's post-Fed low by 1.3610, fell short of the daily cloud, indicating lack of resolve by GBP/USD bulls.

GBP/USD's recent failure ahead of the daily cloud base hints bears may be gearing up for a test of July 20's low of 1.3573, eyeing a run at 1.3463's 50% Fib of 1.2676-1.4250, the September 2020-June 2021 rise.
Below 1.3463, a series of daily lows on the way to 200-DMA support by 1.3162 attracts.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 24 - 09:30 AM

Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of revising down its forecasts.

"We lower our EUR/USD forecast, from 1.15 to 1.13 in 12M and similarly over time. This reflects our view that market themes are increasingly pro dollar. We expect to see 1) lower PMIs, 2) a further move towards tightening global liquidity conditions, 3) peak inflation concerns and 4) a further recovery in US jobs," Danske notes. 

"These factors will weigh on EUR/USD over the coming quarters. In our view, the change in forecast implies risks to the forecast are balanced, as we see EUR/USD at 1.10-1.15 in a year," Danske adds.

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 24 - 08:30 AM

TD Research discusses the USD outlook in light of this week's September policy decision.

"We think the Fed's shift to a faster taper pace plus early November start will likely diminish the USD's downside risks through the later parts of 2022. In other words, the USD probably doesn't have as much downside as we anticipated, yet the next likely move through late 2021 and early 2022 is lower. A shift in the 2s10s curve that marks the anticipation of the first rate hike will likely mark the bottom," TD notes. 

"Given our call for a Fed hike in late 2023, that probably won't be seen until late Q2/early Q3 next year. Behind the scenes lies the outlook for the global economy, which is arguably more important than the Fed over the next three to six months. The result is that the USD will likely make another run lower, probably revisiting levels near the lows seen in May. A light form of reflation and mispriced themes would offer the spark," TD adds. 

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 24 - 07:26 AM
  • China's Evergrande nL1N2QQ02J, crypto crackdown nL1N2QQ0MG sink risk

  • Investors shun riskier assets, equities ESv1 fall, EM ccys sink vs US$

  • Safe-have US$, yen buys prevail; AUD/JPY nears 80.10, USD/CNH nears 6.4725

  • AUD/USD falls from 0.73165 Asia high, pierces daily cloud base in early NY

  • Pair nears 0.7250, daily technicals now flashing warnings to AUD/USD longs

  • Daily RSI diverged on today's high, pair below 10-DMA & cloud base

  • Bearish monthly techs remain, inverted hammer & falling RSI favor bears

  • Slew of Fed speakers on tap Friday, investors to look for Fed taper clues

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Sep 24 - 05:54 AM
  • Cross entering another period of long candle shadows, above and below

  • Inability to drive bullish or bearish advantage home could cloud direction

  • Broader range defined by 0.8501 Sept 16 low and 0.8612 Sept 22 high

  • Series of falling significant daily tops leans bearish

  • Weekly bear bias is holding and argues for fading rallies to 0.8600-10 area

  • Monthly chart shows price held in middle of a wide 0.8450 to 0.8719 range

    For more click on FXBUZ

EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 24 - 04:41 AM
  • AUD/USD falls to 0.7270 as Evergrande's debt struggles weigh on the AUD

  • Evergrande fears grow after interest payment deadline missed nL1N2QQ02J

  • More: nL8N2QP1H5. AUD is often used as a proxy for China risk

  • 0.7270 = intra-day low. 0.7316 was one-week high in Asia nL1N2QQ03M

  • Big 0.7275 option expiry for the NY cut, A$1 billion strike nL1N2QQ0BZ

  • 0.7223 was Thursday's low, before AUD shorts squeezed nL1N2QP2MR

AUDUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Sep 24 - 03:35 AM
  • Thurs saw a close above the daily cloud, that spans the 109.86-110.19 region

  • On Friday the daily cloud has propped the market so far

  • That increases the odds for further gains towards 110.97 Fibo eventually

  • 110.97 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 111.66 to 108.73 drop

  • A daily close back within the cloud will warn of another bull trap

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 129.45-129.75 range so far. USD/JPY Trader TGM2336

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 24 - 02:48 AM
  • 1.3714 marks the cable low since Thursday's BoE-fuelled rise to 1.3750

  • BoE sees growing case for rate rise nL8N2QP2YG. 1.3685 was pre-BoE high

  • 15 bps rate rise to 0.25% is now fully priced for Feb 2022 (vs 63% pre-BoE)

  • Cumulative 40 bps BoE hike to 0.5% by June 2022 is 95% priced BOEWATCH

  • 1.3610 was Wednesday's one-month low after USD rose on Evergrande concerns

  • Evergrande fears grow after interest payment deadline missed nL1N2QQ02J

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Sep 24 - 02:14 AM
  • EUR/USD's recent recovery attempts have been limited

  • Market remains offered while under the daily cloud that spans 1.1760-1.1929

  • Bulls need a close above 1.1737 Fibo, 23.6% retrace of 1.1909 to 1.1684 drop

  • Until then the scope is for all losses towards the 2021 1.1664 low

  • Break and daily close below the 1.1664 low, would likely accelerate further

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2QP0BA

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Sep 24 - 02:03 AM
  • FX options expire at 10-am New York/3-pm London - Friday September 24

  • EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1.3BLN), 1.1725-30 (754M), 1.1765-85 (1.1BLN)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7250-55 (564M), 0.7275 (1.1BLN), 0.7350 (515M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.6930 (360M), 0.7050-70 (361M). EUR/AUD: 1.6270 (658M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.2625-30 (1.4BLN), 1.2650-55 (1.4BLN), 1.2680 (760M)

  • 1.2700 (622M), 1.2800 (1.6BLN)

  • USD/JPY: 110.50 (450M). EUR/JPY: 129.40-50 (287M), 131.50 (486M)

  • EUR/NOK: 10.10 (224M), 10.2000 (250M)

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Sep 23 - 11:35 PM

  • +0.1% at the top of a 110.20-110.43 range, resilient risk - Nikkei +1.9%

  • Japan August core CPI was flat - well below the BoJ target nL4N2QP2N9

  • PMI slowed as output and orders contracted due to COVID-19 nZRN002VEI

  • Effectiveness of Abenomics a key factor for LDP leadership nL4N2QQ0FG

  • Tenkan line poised to cross the horizontal Kijun line - positive signal

  • Break above the daily cloud sustained in Tokyo - 110.45 Sept high caps

  • 110.50 break to target 110.80 August high, then 110.96, 76.4% Jul-Aug fall

  • 109.86 and 110.19 daily cloud parameters are now initial supports

For more click on FXBUZ

jpy 2 Sep 24 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 23 - 04:30 PM

Barclays Research argues that while possible Evergrande default could be a significant drag on the property sector, it is far from being China's Lehman moment.

"China’s situation is very different. Not only are the property sectors’ linkages to the financial system not on the same scale as a large investment bank, but the debt capital markets are not the only, or even the primary, means of funding. The country is, to a large extent, a command-and-control economy. In an extreme scenario, even if capital markets are shut to all Chinese property firms (which is not occurring and is only a tail risk at this point), regulators could direct banks to lend to such firms, keeping them afloat and providing time for an extended ‘work-out’ if needed," Barclays notes.

"A prospective Evergrande default is still a serious issue. But, we think, the effects are primarily on growth, and unlikely to be exacerbated by a financial crisis. This is a challenging moment for Chinese authorities but to our mind it is far from being China’s Lehman moment," Barclays adds.

Barclays Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Sep 23 - 10:12 PM
  • AUD/USD traded to 0.7316 earlier - but it now trading around 0.7295

  • Resistance at the 38.2 of the 0.7477/0.7222 move at 0.7318 holding for now

  • Mood in Asia lacklustre with AXJ index slipping into negative territory

  • Support is at the 10-day MA at 0.7290 and break would ease upward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Sep 23 - 08:36 PM

  • +0.05% after closing +0.45%, as risk appetite firmed and safe-haven USD fell

  • German election too close to call after the final TV debate nL8N2QP59E

  • ECB policy makers concerned inflation forecasts are too low nL8N2QP1G3

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict

  • 21 day Bollinger bands flat line - bearish signals have turned neutral

  • Negative bias survives for a test of 1.1664 while 1.1795 21 DMA caps

  • 1.1700 1.268 BLN, 1.1725/30 754 mln and 1.1765/85 1.152 BLN close strikes

For more click on FXBUZ

eur Sep 24 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Sep 23 - 07:55 PM

  • Steady after closing up 0.75% with a softer USD and hawkish BoE nL8N2QP2YG

  • UK consumer morale wilts under cost-of-living crisis: GfK nL8N2QP2DO

  • As the furlough scheme ends, it could be a difficult winter for many

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages conflict

  • 21 day Bollinger bands contract - bearish bias while 1.3771 21 DMA holds

  • 1.3602 August low held this week, leaving a double bottom above 1.3600

  • Close above 1.3771 21 DMA would target the 1.3902 upper 21 day Bolli band

  • 1.3696, 38.2% of this week's bounce first support - NY 1.3750 top resistance

For more click on FXBUZ

gbp Sep 24 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Sep 23 - 07:07 PM
  • EUR/USD opens 0.44% higher after risk rally weighed on USD JPY nL1N2QP244

  • Pair was underpinned by EUR/JPY short-covering as cross rose over 0.90%

  • Resistance around 1.1755 with Wednesday's high @ 1.1756 & 10-day MA @ 1.1754

  • More resistance is found at the 38.2 of 1.1909/1.1683 move at 1.1769

  • EUR/USD likely to trade in narrow range in Asia with EUR/JPY flows key

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Sep 23 - 06:17 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.75% higher after large unwinding of safe-haven trades

  • There was large liquidation of short equities/long US Treasuries strategies nL1N2QP2DSnL1N2QP24L

  • The FX equivalent is short AUD/JPY and the cross soared around 1.25% higher

  • Fading Evergrande fears helped to fuel the short-covering in risk assets

  • AUD/USD above 10-day MA at 0.7291 with more resistance at 21-day MA @ 0.7331

  • Fibo resistance is at the 38.2 of the 0.7477/0.7222 move at 0.7318

  • Support down at 0.7220/25 proving to be solid as bids in that window hold

  • AUD may remain bid while the short-covering in risk assets dominates flows

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 23 - 03:00 PM

SEB Research likes short EUR/GBP exposure in spot for a move towards 0.83.

"We expected EUR/GBP to head lower which turned out correct and in June we recommended a range trade that also delivered. This time we once gain believe in the downside as BOE seems ready to first stop its APF program ahead of time and then hike in May 2022," SEB notes.

"As the market has rewarded currencies with central bank support, we expect EUR/GBP to resume a clearer trend lower targeting 0.83 and would stop the trade on a break above July highs at 0.8650," SEB adds.

SEB Research/Market Commentary
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