First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 10 - 11:45 AM
Societe Generale Research maintains a structural bearish bias on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY targeting the 2 pairs at 105 and 115.50 respectively by year-end.
"First things first: This is a correction to an outsized move in yields during August, not a turn in the trend. Last Friday's US labour market data show, clearly enough for me, that the US economy is slowing slowly but steadily as the global trade slowdown infects it. The US economy is less vulnerable to global trade than Germany's, but it's not immune and it can't rely on the equity market to bail it out for ever. The world will drag the US economy down and Bund yields will drag Treasury yields down," SocGen notes.
"Finally, a chart of old friends re-united as USD/JPY re-correlates with relative 10-year yields. The more US yields rise, the higher USD/JPY can go. We don't believe we've seen the lows for this cycle, in US yields, relative yields, USD/JPY or even EUR/JPY," SocGen adds.
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary