• USD net G10 IMM spec long cut dramatically, -$13.8bn, in the Sept 9-15 period; $IDX +0.86%

• USD under significant pressure pre-Fed; hawkish Fed shift likely to spur USD bid in current period

• EUR$ -0.71% in period, specs +15.6k contracts now -27k; hawkish ECB prods EUR buying

• $JPY +0.76%, specs +109.6k contracts now +120.3k; MoF intervention stirs yen bid

• GBP$ -0.48%, specs +121 contracts now -58.7k; less-hawkish BoE, fiscal concerns weigh

• $CAD +0.92%, specs 32.9k contracts now -37.6k; Fed-BoC rate convergence sees CAD shorts unwind

• AUD$ -1.3%, specs -4.04k contracts now -38.9k; Oil price rise cuts global growth view, weighs on oz

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


IMM Position Table as of 9-15:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trade, +0.26% at 1.3391; Friday range 1.3394-1.3338

• Early slide to 7-week low by 1.3377 reversed amid talk of JP MoF checking rates

• Cable had been under pressure after Fed hike/BoE hold this week

• STIR futures now show near 60% odds for Fed and BoE hikes in Oct/Nov

• LSEG's IRPR indicates BoE more hawkish in 2027; BoE +101bp, Fed +77 by Dec 2027

• UK fiscal concern heightened ahead of October's UK Autumn Budget; 10-yr gilt at 5.3%

• GBP$ res 1.3394 Friday high, 1.3429 falling 100-HMA, 1.3452 50% Fib of 1.3567-1.3337

• Supt 1.3337 daily low Sept 17, 1.3290 weekly cloud base, 1.3274 daily low Jul 28

GBP Chart:

(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook in light of this week's September BoJ meeting.

"We see scope over the near-term for the US dollar to advance further versus the yen. The reaction today to the BoJ communications and Governor Ueda’s press conference highlighted the fact that current market pricing may have become excessive. The bar was low for the BoJ delivering a less hawkish message,"MUFG notes.

"Is the BoJ moving faster now? Governor Ueda hinted that might be the case but not enough to convince the markets. We expect the next hike in January 2027 and then in June, taking the policy rate to 1.75%. Near-term USD/JPY could advance further but the rates curve is reasonably priced and further hikes and intervention risks will curtail the scope for the move higher in USD/JPY. We would still expect USD/JPY buying to fade ahead of a break above the 160.00-level," MUFG adds.

• Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies jump as bitcoin and ethereum rally

• Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, jump 5.7% to $80,941.54; ether leaps 5.9% to $2,594.32

• Crypto mkt value rose despite Fed, BoJ rate hikes — suggesting they were priced in, says Alice Liu, head of research, CoinMarketCap

• "More important question now is how higher funding costs affect positioning" - Liu

• USD gains against the yen on Friday the BOJ rate hike, but investors doubtful of further increases [FRX/]

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global jumps 11.2%, while bitcoin bull Strategy soars ~12.9%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets gains 7.8%

• Crypto miners Riot Platforms Inc MARA Holdings , Hut 8 and Bit Digital ahead 3%-10% each

• BTC buyer Strategy leaps 12.12%

• BTC mining machine makers Ebang International and Canaan Inc climb 7.8% and 20%, respectively

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF adds 5.9%; iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF rises 6%

• YTD, including session, BTC down 7.6% , ETH down 7.7%

(Reporting by Darshan Kumar in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses its latest Gold's outlook and targets.

"We maintain our $5,400/toz end-2027 forecast despite September's Fed hike and our economists now expecting an additional hike in October. While higher rates should continue to weigh on gold prices through ETF demand in the near term, our economists expect the Fed to deliver three cuts between September 2027 and March 2028, leaving the terminal forecast unchanged at 3.25-3.5%," GS notes.

"We continue to expect gold prices to grind higher in the near term and now estimate year-end fair value at $4,650/toz (below our previous $4,900/toz forecast but above the current spot price of ~$4,350/toz), as much of the expected tightening already appears priced into ETF demand, stronger-than-expected central bank purchases continue to offset the remaining drag from higher rates, and call-option demand for gold as a macro-policy hedge has proven resilient," GS adds.

• USD/CHF is sustaining its break above the 100-week moving average, encouraging signs for bulls

• U.S. yields are edging higher again, with the benchmark 10-year testing 5%

• Assuming volatility remains contained, this should continue to support USD/CHF from a carry perspective

• Near-term technical setup remains constructive, with the path of least resistance pointing towards 0.8350-0.8375

• Key support levels remain unchanged at 0.8173-0.8200
USDCHF daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research previews the September SNB meeting (due on next Thursday).

"We expect the SNB to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0% next week. We also expect the reference to FX interventions in the policy statement to remain unchanged, signalling an "increased readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets." Although appreciation pressures on the Swiss franc have eased somewhat over the summer, with the CHF down 3.3% YTD in real effective terms, we do not anticipate a return to the pre-March wording (namely a "willingness to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary"). Our base case remains that the SNB stays on hold until 2028, in contrast to market pricing," BofA notes.

"Overall, next week's communication should reinforce the SNB's determination to preserve full optionality and retain all policy instruments at its disposal," BofA adds.

ANZ Research discusses NZD/USD outlook for the coming week.

"Technically, the NZD/USD maintains a starkly bearish momentum that is looking to extend into the week ahead.

The pair is trading well below its 20-, 50-, and 200-dmas. We view the pair as highly undervalued on a medium-term basis, though further downside is possible in the short term," ANZ notes.

"With the lack of fundamental macro drivers in the week ahead, we are slightly negative on the NZD/USD, with key support near 0.5626 (26 June low)," ANZ adds.

• 0.7110-0.7136 traded overnight, NY opened near 0.7130, up +0.24%

• RBA governor Bullock's inflation rhetoric upped probability for a hike

• The comments buoyed the aussie as did gold, silver, stock rallies

• USD/CNH drop to 6.6935, US 10-yr yield drop from its high also buoyed

• Daily RSI is rising but pair below Sep. 16 high & still within that days range

• US Aug. industrial prod., comments from Fed's Bowman, Schmid are risks today
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• BOJ 'dovish hike' boosts USD/JPY, pressures Japan, scope for the 160 level

• USD/JPY soared above 156.64 and 157.53 tech levels, a close above would be bullish

• 156.64 and 157.53 are 50% and 61.8% retraces of 160.39-152.89 (Sept) fall

• Spot has climbed from 155.88 to 158.06, on Friday, EBS data shows

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

• Fin Min Katayama: it is important to maintain order regarding exchange rates, interest rates

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Huge €3-billion 1.1500 fx option strike expiry at 10-am New York/14.00 GMT Friday - more strikes surround

• Related hedging flows can help draw/contain FX. DTCC traded options data shows plenty more at 1.1500 next week

• EUR/USD hit low since late July at 1.1456 post Fed and consolidates higher - 1.1475-92 (EBS) Friday

• Daily cloud now above spot to provide tech resistance but EUR/USD appears to lack downside impetus

• FX option implied volatility at long term lows with a very small downside over topside strike premium

• Price action consistent with ongoing low volatility within longer term range, with a mild downside lean
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


EUR/USD FX option strike expiries Sept 18-25

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY FX option implied volatility hit hard after BoJ press conference couldn't offset dovish hike disappointment

• FX options had been primed for excessive FX volatility which inflated short dated expiry implied volatility pre BoJ

• Funds were said to have been holding downside strike options looking for hawkish BoJ outcome

• Those options now being unwound and are fuelling the broader implied volatility sell-off

• 1-week USD/JPY implied vol hit 10.5-9.0 so far and the benchmark 1-month from 9.0 to 8.5

• Topside hedges still in play - 160.00 bought earlier this week and more since BoJ

• Intervention risk will increase if USD/JPY continues to unwind the early Sep drop from 160.00 to 153.001-week and 1-month expiry USD/JPY FXO implied volatility Click here

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD rose to 0.7136 in Asia, its highest level since Wednesday

• Ascent influenced by hawkish shift in RBA expectations on Bullock

• RBA chief Bullock warns inflation risks materializing

• Markets now see 95% chance of RBA rate hike to 4.6% on Sept 29

• Wednesday high was 0.7141 - before drop to 0.7075 on Fed's hawkish hike

• 0.7075 was four-week low, which the 100-day moving average helped define

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Friday September 18

• EUR/USD: 1.1400 (5.2BLN), 1.1425-30 (763M), 1.1445-50 (2.8BLN), 1.1470-75 (1.7BLN), 1.1500 (3BLN),

• 1.1510-15 (1.9BLN), 1.1520-25 (1.1BLN), 1.1550-60 (1.5BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8250 (264M), 0.8265-75 (1BLN), 0.8300 (1BLN).

EUR/CHF: 0.9500 (347M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 (597M), 1.3330-40 (250M), 1.3350-60 (300M), 1.3400-15 (284M), 1.3440 (720M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8550-60 (314M), 0.8595-0.8600 (251M), 0.8610 (560M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7075 (575M), 0.7100 (580M), 0.7170 (401M), 0.7200 (2.2BLN)

• NZD/USD: 0.5700 (553M), 0.5725 (400M). USD/CAD: 1.3955 (385M), 1.4000 (509M), 1.4060 (387M)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 (5.5BLN), 155.50 (877M), 156.00-10 (1.2BLN), 156.50 (846M), 157.00 (1.6BLN), 159.00 (1BLN)

• Thursday's FX options wrap - Primed for BoJ shock amid post-Fed stasis (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/KRW edges up to 1385.7 as it steps into bullish path

• Fri close above 1381.4 engages Bollinger uptrend channel

• But a key chart barrier just slightly above may deter buyers

• Closing above 50% retracement 1387.8 needed to clear the way

• USD/JPY rally in the wake of as-expected BOJ hike inspires longs

• S. Korea: commercial viability hinders US investment talks
KRW

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD holds near 7-week low in Asia after closing 0.15% lower Thursday

• Undermined by BoE holding rates steady while other major central banks hike

• BoE pauses all active gilt sales for 6 months in surprise move

• EUR/GBP hovers 2-mth high; a daily close above 100-day MA at 0.8594 bullish

• 1.3344, 61.8% Fibo of June-Aug rally under threat, break opens 1.3265-75

• Interim supports 1.3335, 1.3300; resistance 1.3400-05, 1.3445-50

• Thu range 1.3337--1.34065, Asia 1.3335-1.3367
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 3.6%, their biggest intraday pct rise since August 20

• Gold stocks rise as bullion prices edge higher, supported by lower oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar [GOL/]

• Sector majors Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources rise 3.2% and 2.6% respectively

• YTD, AXGD sub index down 0.7%, flat for the week

(Reporting by Paridhi Minda in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD flatlines Fri as RBA cohort appears before parliamentary committee

• Governor Bullock says upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising

• Futures pricing now implies 95% probability of 25 bps RBA hike on Sep 29

• Middle East war expansion continues as Saudis & Houthis exchange fire

• President Trump meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington next week

• 0.7078 100-DMA may provide short-term support, downside open to 0.6920 below

• Range Asia 0.71095-18 support 0.7078 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD broadly bid on possible Oct Fed rate hike view, USD/JPY on pre-BOJ hold

• USD/JPY range yesterday 155.34-156.30 EBS, 155.88-156.14 so far

• Could be inside day till the BOJ announcement, maybe into Gov Ueda presser

• For the yen to regain upward momentum, very hawkish BOJ hike needed

• JGB-US Treasury interest rate differentials wider still overnight

• In 2s to 287 bps before fall back to 283 bps, 10s 201 bps to 199 bps

• Technically, USD/JPY holding below flat daily Ichimoku tenkan at 156.64

• Hourly chart shows support at 155.20-66 Ichimoku cloud, 100-HMA 155.08 below

• Option expiries today include 154.00-50 total $1.2 bln, 155.00 $5.5 bln

• Also 155.50/75 total $1.3 bln, 156.00-10 $1.2 bln, 156.50/157.00 $2.4 bln

• These expiries likely to help contain spot action maybe even after BOJ

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• On BOJ , , on US pressure

• US markets , , ,

• On US data , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


Japan's terminal rate:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.5% from Thur 0.5705 post-FOMC low as markets begin to recalibrate

• NZ Aug trade balance -1.35 bln (prior -1.95), annual trade balance -5.44 bln

• Middle East war expansion continues as Saudis & Houthis exchange attacks

• President Trump meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington next week

• NZD downtrend remains intact, break below 0.5700 puts 0.5627 ytd low at risk

• Range NZ 0.5731-40, support 0.5700-05 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.5% from Thur post-FOMC 0.7075 low, eyes shifting to RBA outlook

• RBA officials (including Bullock) before parliamentary committee on Fri

• Futures pricing implies 85.0% chance of RBA policy rate hike on Sep 29

• Saudi Arabia & Houthis exchange fire as Middle East war continues to spread

• U.S. President Trump to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week

• AUD hourly Bollinger bands narrowing, DXY -0.1% from recent highs

• 0.7078 100-DMA may provide short-term support, downside open to 0.6920 below

• Overnight range 0.71065-275 support 0.7078 0.6920, resistance 0.72825 0.7661
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

JP Morgan likes short USD/JPY exposure into September BoJ meeting.

"Fed was a small hawk but did little to change view in USDJPY; much more important will be the BoJ tonight and the local flow picture. There was evidence enough that Ueda was at least trying to be more hawkish so now that he has had more time to prepare for this meeting - given all the hype - it will be interesting to see how he delivers the presser, for me anything that suggests we are good to keep the newly priced quarterly cadence is positive JPY," JPM notes.

"Given how well priced the meeting is, the more likely surprise here is that they go 50bp rather than unchanged. JPY longs continue to get cut at pace by DHF who are almost back to flat on the month (when USDJPY was 159) meanwhile more evidence of modest local RM demand in our franchise overnight. In other news Takaichi’s cabinet reshuffle was pretty muted and contained no market- relevant victims. Stay short USDJPY," JPM adds.

• NY opened near 1.1475 after 1.1456 traded overnight, rally then extended

• Downward moves in USD, US yields , oil helped fuel the rally

• Gold, silver and equity gains added fuel as they helped drive USD selling

• USD/CNH's drop to a fresh 3-3/4 year low contributed buoyancy to EUR/USD

• EUR/USD hit 1.1498 then dipped as USD & oil firmed in NY's afternoon

• The pair traded up +0.12% late which had daily techs warn EUR/USD bears

• Daily RSI diverged & the pair couldn't hold below the 61.8% Fib of 1.1325-1.1711
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7110 after 0.7084 traded overnight, rally extended in early NY

• USD, US yield , USD/CNH drops helped lift AUD/USD to 0.7128

• Rallies in gold, silver, copper and stocks also contributed to buoy AUD/USD

• Yields, USD firmed in NY's afternoon, AUD/USD neared 0.7115 late, was up +0.37%

• Falling monthly RSI. pair's hold below the 10- & 21-DMA are concerns for bulls

• September's monthly inverted hammer candle adds to those concerns
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)