Goldman Sachs reviews the September RBA meeting.

"The RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60%, in line with our and consensus expectations. The Monetary Policy Board's (MPB) decision was unanimous, with financial markets priced for 24.2bp of tightening prior to the meeting. The brief statement attending the decision retained a tightening bias and was in line with our expectations," GS notes.

"They hiked and maintained the tightening bias in the statement, saying they would increase the cash rate further if needed, but the press conference comments seemed less hawkish:...

That's consistent with our AUD view that ultimately, while the RBA hiking and being hawkish helps, it really is also a call on the broader risk backdrop, and China-specific risk in particular. That's one reason we've liked EUR/AUD downside from these levels," GS adds.

ANZ Research adopts a sell-on-rallies bias on EUR/USD.

"We view US data, Fed expectations and broader risk sentiment as the dominant drivers of EUR/USD direction in the near term. The technical backdrop also remains soft," ANZ notes.

"EUR/USD is trading below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the broader downtrend. Initial support is around 1.132 (1 year low), with a break opening the way towards 1.12. We see any tactical upside as an opportunity to sell. Resistance is seen at 1.14 and then 1.154," ANZ adds.

• 0.7029-0.6979 traded overnight, a 2-month low traded, NY opened near 0.6995

• Pair fell despite RBA 25bps hike & possibility for more hikes to come

• Broad-based USD buying, overnight drops in gold, silver, copper weighed on AUD/USD

• Drops in oil and USD/CNH also could not inspire AUD/USD bulls

• Pair's bounce off the low aided by US yield drops, equity gains

• Techs are bearish; RSIs falling, pair below 200-DMA, 61.8% Fib of 0.6867-0.7238

• September's monthly inverted hammer candle reinforces bearish signals

• US Aug. JOLTS, Sept. consumer confidence are data risks in NY

• Fed's Bowmna, Barr, Goolsbee, Musalem, Williams, Waller to speak today
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• The USD/JPY correlation between spot performance and risk premium remains firmly on the downside

• FX option risks reversals highlight this with a strong premium for JPY calls over puts vs the USD

• This means that when spot trades lower, implied volatility trends higher - rewarding FX option holders

• Benchmark 1-month expiry 25 delta risk reversals are 2.5 JPY calls over puts - up from 1.9 in mid September

• Late July intervention took the contract to high since April at 3.0, setbacks have stalled at 1.8 since then

• Market still fearful of intervention, especially since increased verbal rhetoric - the likes of that from Atsushi Mimura on Monday
USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD sinks to 1.1333 EBS close to 2026 low at 1.1325

• Drop follows oil's rally, US and EZ i/rate rises and bond slump

• Stocks which have slipped only modestly remain key

• Bearish tech signals target 1.1275 if 2026 low broken

• Target for a deeper correction of 1.0125-1.2084 rise is 1.1105

• Worrying backdrop could trigger rush for the dollar

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD FX option implied volatility trades new highs since June - raising the cost of volatility risk premium

• Benchmark 1-month expiry now 5.75 after testing Decembers multi year lows at 4.5 in mid September

• Lower spot and risk of further losses is lifting implied volatility and the EUR put over call premium

• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals up from 0.1 to 0.85 since Sept Fed, though settle around 0.65 for now

• Dealers note ongoing demand for lower strike options between 1.1300-1.1200 with near term expiries

• If 1.1300 option barriers break, the market may become short gamma - accelerating spot losses and vol gains
EUR/USD FXO implied volatility


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals-

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• UBS model flags USD/JPY as the standout month-end rebalancing sell signal

• S&P 500 has outperformed G10 equity peers month-to-date in September

• Despite broad US equity strength, only USDJPY shows a clear, strong signal

• Other G10 pairs: signals are weak or misaligned with month-to-date equity moves

• UBS say the model's predictive power is currently weak, so treat signals with caution(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flops under 0.7000, touching 0.6984, despite hawkish RBA

• Break of psych barrier cues stoploss orders, momentum-selling

• Further downside exposed; July low of 0.6922 could be tested

• Near that level, some fast-money profit-taking bids could gather

• RBA's Bullock says may hike again if needed

• C.bank raised cash rate by 25 bps as widely expected
AUD

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% as RBA tightens monetary policy 25 bps as widely anticipated

• Decision unanimous, further hikes not ruled out, 4.60% OCR a 15-year high

• AU Aug CPI update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m, +4.1% y/y

• AU household spending softens to 0.0% in Aug (prior +1.1% m/m)

• WTI +1.5% as supply concerns re-escalate amid scant U.S.-Iran peace progress

• Fed rate hike bets firm, futures pricing implies 70.3% chance of Oct 28 hike

• AUD targets 0.6920 support, break above 0.7066 100-DMA may reset narrative

• Range Asia 0.7008-29 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY in stasis on 157, Asia 157.21-58 EBS, awaiting fresh news, US NFP

• Recent official jaw-boning helping to cap upside, Katayama-speak again today

• Japanese exporter offers in place ahead of 158.00, importers at Tokyo fix

• Upside seen heavy above 158.47 200-DMA, support sub-156.64 daily Ichi kijun

• Hourly chart shows resistance from 157.62-98 Ichimoku cloud

• Spot pivoting around ascending 200-HMA at 157.39 currently

• EUR/JPY 178.78-179.06 EBS, inside day after 178.20-68 range yesterday

• Upside likely capped at 179.59 200-HMA, hourly cloud 179.68-86 above

• CHF/JPY 188.78-189.27 after push down to 188.42 yesterday

• Holding above 188.31 low September 17, 187.50 low September 14

• GBP/JPY 208.19-75, above 207.60 low yesterday, 207.02 trough September 8

• AUD/JPY 110.19-54, above 109.84 low yesterday, 109.62 trough September 14

• Could see more moves later post-RBA

• NZD/JPY 88.93-89.31 after 88.65 low yesterday, lowest since November 2025

• Related comment , also

• On Katayama-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Sept 29 (Reuters) - USD/JPY could be broadly steady until the US jobs report on Friday. The data will likely sway market expectations for the next Federal Open Market Committee policy decision on October 28.

Official comments have helped cap USD/JPY for now with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura speaking out against a weak yen late last week and Monday , , , .

Markets are currently pricing around a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point FOMC hike in October, though expectations are not uniform so soon after this month's hike .

The Reuters poll forecasts a 90,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September following August's 162,000 gain. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.1%.

Ahead of this crucial release, USD/JPY could be a story of the battle between Japanese importers and exporters and another battle between those now long the yen and bears looking to short again.

Japanese importer demand remains undiminished given elevated import costs. Energy prices are higher again due to the resumption of Middle East hostilities.

However, Japanese exporters have plenty to repatriate given good sales and especially with most budget assumptions for the fiscal year above USD/JPY 155. They are likely to continue with forward sales following the scare when USD/JPY plunged to 152.89 EBS on September 8.

As to positioning, IMM CTAs have pared some yen longs entered on the USD/JPY drop to 152.89. Net JPY longs have fallen to 71,982 as of September 22 from 120,359 contracts as of September 15 . More long liquidation appears to have occurred since, with USD/JPY climbing to 159.03 on September 24.

Related comments , , ..

USD/JPY:


Fed rate expectations and short-term yields:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Tue; AU household spending flat in Aug (prior +1.1% m/m)

• RBA decision due 0430 GMT, 25 bps hike widely expected, statement critical

• AU Aug CPI update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m, +4.1% y/y

• Fed Governor Cook still wary on inflation; Fed rate hike bets firming

• Futures pricing now implies 70.3% chance of another Fed hike Oct 28

• Brent crude +1.2% in Asia as lack of genuine U.S.-Iran progress continues

• AUD targeting 0.6920 support, break above 0.7066 100-DMA may turn narrative

• Range Asia 0.7009-19 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.9%, their lowest level since Sept 17

• Sub-index on course for fourth straight session of losses, if current trend holds

• Gold stocks drop on the back of falling bullion prices after they hovered near a more than seven-week low on concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer [GOL/]

• Gold miner Northern Star Resources falls 2.3% and Evolution Mining drops 0.3%

• YTD, AXGD down more than 3%

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• Comments from Japan FinMin Katayama, US TsySec Bessent, MOF's Mimura impact

• Katayama and Bessent spoke Friday, Mimura yesterday, warned of FX action

• Mimura especially adamant in Reuters exclusive, action towards USD/JPY 160?

• USD/JPY range yesterday 156.51-157.85, Asia so far today 157.30-45 EBS

• Japanese importer demand at Tokyo fix, exporter offers eyed on rallies

• Could be stasis today awaiting fresh news, US jobs report on Friday

• Crude oil prices have steadied, yen supportive? Some yen longs pared too

• Support from 156.64 flat daily Ichimoku kijun, 200-DMA 158.47 resistance

• Spot currently pivoting around ascending 200-HMA at 157.36

• Now descending hourly Ichimoku cloud 157.60-98 above

• Some option expiries below on 156, 157.00 $485 mln, 157.50-65 $758 mln

• JGB-US Tsy rate differential off some in 2s, still at recent wides in 10s

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Mimura-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat wtd as investors adjust positions in lead up to RBA decision

• Meeting outcome due 0430 GMT, 25 bps hike widely anticipated, statement key

• AU Aug household spending data also due at 0130 GMT Tue, prior +1.1% m/m

• AU Aug CPI update due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.5% m/m, +4.1% y/y

• Brent crude $105.90 a barrel, Gold down 4.0% as Fed rate hike bets firm

• AUD targeting 0.6920 support zone as potential for bigger downswing builds

• Overnight range 0.70075-39 support 0.6920 0.6865, resistance 0.7282 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


Gold Daily 21-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research revises down its USD/JPY forecasts.

"The steep selloff in JGBs over the past 18M is encouraging the GPIF to increase the weighting of domestic bonds in its portfolio. This change would also reduce pressure from the government for the Fund to allocate more of its capital domestically.

While we cannot know the new asset reallocations of the GPIF, which could be revealed in early November, we judge the most likely new allocations towards domestic bonds of between 31-35% combined with no increase or a modest increase in domestic equity holdings to 31%. Such reallocations would generate repatriation flows of USD115-138.1bn, resulting in short-term fair value for USD/JPY between 148-150," CACIB notes.

"We are lowering our USD/JPY forecast profile, now expecting the exchange rate to average 156 in Q426 (down from 163) and to continue its downward path to 150 in Q427 (previously 156)," CACIB adds.

The euro slipped against a mixed dollar on Monday as higher Treasury yields driven by inflation and debt-supply concerns weighed on risk sentiment, while ECB President Christine Lagarde downplayed euro zone inflation concerns.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said AI-driven demand and higher oil prices are likely to keep inflation pressures elevated in coming months, though she did not signal a need for further rate hikes.

Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appointed David Zervos as counselor.

Oil trimmed early gains as US and Iranian officials hold separate talks, with a U.S. official saying discussions remain constructive but no deal is likely without nuclear progress, despite President Donald Trump's openness to sanctions relief.

Lagarde said euro zone inflation has yet to trigger significant second-round effects, supporting a measured ECB response, while the central bank plans to expand euro liquidity backstops to bolster the currency's global role.

ECB Governing Council member Alvaro Santos Pereira said energy remains the main inflation driver, with higher natural gas prices posing a key risk this winter.

UK finance minister John Healey said fiscal discipline will be central to his Oct. 28 budget, citing rising debt-servicing costs as a drain on public spending.

BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said persistent inflation has strengthened the case for keeping rates higher for longer.

DXY rose in active month-end trading, though gains were tempered as bullish dollar option sentiment eased.

EUR/USD hit a two-month low at 1.1353 before recovering, but bearish momentum below key moving averages keeps risks tilted toward 1.1350, with resistance near 1.1400.

EUR/CHF rose for a third day following weekend comments by Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel on inflation and the Swiss franc.

GBP/USD edged higher in choppy trade, but the broader downtrend remains intact with risks still skewed toward 1.3200 support and the YTD low at 1.3140, while resistance lies at 1.3280.

USD/JPY held around 157.20, supported by firmer Treasury yields and month-end demand, but intervention risks and softer momentum may cap gains near 158.00 and leave support at 156.45-65 vulnerable.

AUD/USD gained amid a stronger CNH ahead of month-end and Golden Week, but bearish technicals and resistance just above its 200-day moving average at 0.7025 leave risks remain skewed lower.

Treasury yields rose about 6 basis points, with the 2s-10s curve nudging up to +31.6bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.59%.

WTI oil was up only 0.22% after being up over 2%.

Gold slid 3.6% while copper fell 1.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.20%, USD/JPY +0.11%, GBP/USD +0.09%, AUD/USD +0.01%, DXY +0.23%, EUR/JPY -0.09%, GBP/JPY +0.14%, AUD/JPY +0.08%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD marginally firmer in a choppy session. Range 1.3225-80

• Spot supported by cross-related selling in EUR/GBP, around down 0.3% on the session

• Little evidence Cable is breaking out of the prevailing downtrend

• Macro backdrop unchanged, softer risk tone and elevated energy costs still weigh on sterling

• Key support situated at 1.3200, test remains likely

• A break here would expose the 1.3140 YTD low
gbpusd hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

ANZ Research previews the September RBA meeting and AUD/USD outlook around the meeting.

"Looking ahead, we now expect the RBA to deliver 25bp hikes in both September and November, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest level since 2008. While a September hike is our base case, the vote may again be split, reflecting the Board's apparent preference to adjust policy alongside quarterly inflation updates and Statement on Monetary Policy meetings. Any dissent is likely to be about timing rather than the direction of policy.

For FX, the November signal matters more than the September decision itself. A hawkish hike (base case) that reinforces further upside to inflation risks and keeps November firmly in play would be the most supportive outcome for the AUD, likely pushing AUD/USD through 0.71 and towards 0.7140. A hike accompanied by neutral, data-dependent guidance will likely leave AUD/USD within its current trading range," ANZ notes.

"Conversely, a hold would likely weigh on the AUD initially, potentially dragging AUD/USD below 0.70. However, downside should prove limited if policymakers clearly signal that November remains a live meeting and further tightening remains the central policy path. In short, the AUD's reaction is likely to be driven less by September's decision and more by how the RBA frames the outlook for November," ANZ adds.

LONDON, Sept 28 - The core narrative keeping cable offered remains intact. Global bond yields continue to push higher, which ahead of the October 28 UK budget, will continue to raise concerns around the Chancellor’s limited fiscal headroom. Meanwhile, with little evidence of a notable improvement in energy prices in the near-term, markets will continue to expect a Bank of England rate hike at the November meeting.

For GBP, this combination will leave the broader downtrend in place. This is reflected in the latest CFTC data, given that net GBP shorts rose over 40% to now sit close to recent extremes and levels that have previously marked turning points. In turn, this creates an asymmetry, because, while the near-term setup will remain lower in the budget, the fast build-up of positioning could provide fuel for a sharper post-budget squeeze if the fiscal and geopolitical backdrop improves.

For now, this catalyst is absent and any pre-budget rebound is unlikely to prove a durable one, unless supported by any credible de-escalation between the US and Iran. That said, the path of least resistance is therefore lower, which should keep pressure on initial support at 1.3200, where a break would open up the 2026 low at 1.3140.
GBPUSD positioning

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research shifts to a more bullish bias on the JPY.

"For years, domestic policies and the global backdrop justified the Yen's undervaluation. Now, domestic policies seem to be turning more constructive, with scope for more to come. Faster rate hikes have reduced the inflationary impact of expansionary fiscal policy, taking pressure off the currency. A shift in portfolio flows remains mostly speculation so far, but the higher probability of it occurring increases the downside asymmetry in USD/JPY on top of the Yen's valuation signal, strengthening its attractiveness as a portfolio hedge," GS notes.

"The risk of additional interventions, particularly in the context of the US and Japan's reported joint concern about the Yen's undervaluation, should also keep the upside in USD/JPY more limited. Together, these developments raise the attractiveness of being long JPY, especially to protect against an onset of recession fears, and should make valuation a more meaningful driver of performance," GS adds.

AUD/USD is under pressure from multiple angles despite trading roughly flat on Monday, with the pair holding below its 200-day moving average and investors positioned long the pair facing risks from dollar strength, options positioning, and technical signals.

On the fundamental side, U.S. interest rates rallied to start the week as markets increasingly expect the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance in its inflation fight—the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high while September 2027 futures slid toward last week's lows, with these interest rate gains supporting the dollar.

Options markets reflect bearish positioning as well, with risk reversal vol premiums in the 1-month and 3-month tenors showing puts trading richer than calls, signaling investors are hedging for AUD/USD downside. This is corroborated by CFTC positioning data, where net-short Australian dollar bets have climbed to their largest level since December 2025.

Technically, the picture also favors further declines. The pair is consolidating after its drop from the September 21 high, forming a bear flag pattern while trading below its 10-, 21-, 55-, and 200-day moving averages. Additional bearish signals include September's inverted hammer candlestick and a monthly RSI reading pointing to downward longer-term momentum. Should the bear flag pattern complete, it suggests a potential move down toward the 0.6835-0.6865 zone.

For AUD/USD to reverse higher, two conditions would likely need to materialize: a significant improvement in broader risk sentiment, and a reduced probability of further Fed rate hikes.
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research flags further upside for JPY in the near-term.

"The yen has been holding up better against the US dollar than other major currencies recently mainly reflecting the heightened risk of further intervention to support the yen. Media reports at the end of last week stated that US President Trump voiced concern about yen weakness when meeting Japanese policymakers which has reinforced expectations that they remain under pressure to help cap further upside for USD/JPY. The pair has been consolidating between 155.00 and 160.00 since joint US-Japan intervention at the end of July. Over that time period the yen has been one of the best performing G10 currencies alongside the Australian and US dollars," MUFG notes.

"At the same time, the yen is deriving more support from building expectations for faster BoJ rate hikes. The 2-year JGB yield has jumped higher since late last week and moved within touching distance of 2.00% overnight. Market participants now expect the BoJ to deliver 3-4 more hikes in the year ahead. The probability of a back-to-back hike as soon as next month has also been moving up closer a 50:50 call. The release overnight of the latest BoJ minutes from the July meeting also sent a hawkish signal backing up the shift to a faster pace of tightening which is currently underway although they are more dated than normal given developments over the summer," MUFG adds.

Bank of America Global Research previews the September RBA policy meeting.

"We expect the RBA to raise the cash rate at its upcoming meeting to 4.60%, with risks of further hikes this year amid persistent inflationary pressures. Inflation risks remain skewed to the upside given the higher starting point for inflation in Australia and the risk of second-round effects from energy market disruptions in the Middle East. As a result, we expect the cash rate will need to remain higher for longer, such that Australia retains the highest policy rate among G10 central banks amid persistent core inflation, which should underpin AUD strength," BofA notes.

"We are bullish AUD given elevated Australian Commonwealth Government Bond (ACGB) yields and resilient commodity prices. The key downside risk is a stronger US macroeconomic backdrop that leads markets to price in further Fed tightening. Commodity export prices should continue to offer some support for AUD, although the impact will likely be modest in the absence of new mining capex," BofA adds.