Crédit Agricole CIB macro and rate strategists discuss different political scenarios ahead of the 2027 vote and complement their analysis by simulating the EUR impact under the different scenarios.

"Our results suggest that the EUR could recover under several scenarios including our baseline – eg, either an RN or centrist president coupled with either a centrist or RN majority in the legislature – and some more positive outcomes – eg, a centrist president with either a technocrat, centrist or RN government. We see the OAT, BTP and Bono yield spreads to Bunds tighten notably to push EUR/USD back towards 1.17 or higher, consistent with our current EUR/USD forecasts for 2027," CACIB notes.

"In contrast, should anti-establishment parties to the right or left of the French political spectrum end up controlling both the presidency and the legislature and are able to exercise fiscal restraint, our simulation results point at EUR/USD trading between 1.12 and 1.14.

The most EUR-negative outcomes involve a hung parliament accompanied by either policy paralysis or runaway fiscal deficit. We see EUR/USD falling towards 1.05 under these outcomes," CACIB adds.

Bank of America Global Research flags an important shift in Yen trading during Tokyo hours.

"The yen entered a depreciation cycle in 2021, with USD/JPY reaching 164 in July 2026. However, in our view, the nature of yen weakness changed in 2025. We examine the issue through the lens of intraday USD/JPY price action. From 2021 through 2024, the yen weakened during both Tokyo and offshore trading hours. By contrast, the depreciation from 2Q25 to 2Q26 was driven exclusively by offshore trading hours," BofA notes. 

"The stabilization of the yen during Tokyo hours is consistent with an improvement in Japan's balance of payments (BoP). By contrast, offshore-led yen weakness likely reflected the AI rally and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s still dovish policy stance. The offshore bias toward yen weakness has been subdued since the coordinated intervention in July and the market has shifted toward a strong USD and strong USD environment.

While it remains uncertain whether yen strength in cross-yen pairs will ultimately spill over into USD/JPY, we believe the risk-reward is skewed to the downside for the pair," BofA adds. 

• 1.1213 traded overnight, sellers emerged & EUR/USD then turned lower

• US & French yield gains weighed on EUR/USD

• The US yield gains helped drive USD buying which sank EUR/USD

• Rallies in oil , USD/CNH & drops in equities, silver added weight

• EUR/USD hit 1.1174 in early NY action, it traded down -0.18%

• Techs are bearish; RSIs falling, consolidation of drop from Sep. 25 high persists

• Widening Bolli bands, pair's hold below the 10-DMA reinforce bearish techs

• US jobless claims, US Treasury 30-year auction are risks in NY
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• 0.6968 traded overnight, sellers emerged, AUD/USD then turned lower

• USD, US yield , USD/CNH gains helped drive the pair down

• USD got an added boost on drops in silver, copper and equities

• Sharp rallies in oil fueled risk-off which weighed on AUD/USD

• AUD/USD hit 0.6945 into NY's open, the pair traded down -0.23%

• Hold below 10-DMA, falling daily RSI are bearish tech signals

• US jobless claims & US Treasury 30-year auction are risks in NY
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Oct 8 (Reuters) - The fragile EUR/USD could see a much bigger slump next week, if there is a second weekly close on Friday below a broken retracement level.

EUR/USD is at risk of a deeper slide through the 1.1104 level, a 50% retracement of the 1.0125 to 1.2084 (2025 to 2026) EBS rise, in part due to last week's bearish close below the 1.1336 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retracement of the same 1.0125 to 1.2084 gain.

The downside bias is being reinforced by the 14-week momentum reading, which has been negative for three weeks straight.

The US dollar bullish cycle is intact and could extend its gains, which would exert downward pressure on EUR/USD.

Note the dollar held near its strongest level in 18 months on Thursday, after hawkish minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee signalled policymakers viewed inflation as the biggest risk to their outlook.
Weekly Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Brent crude oil jumps $4pb on Thursday above $104 pb

• Higher oil prices undermine currencies of importers like euro

• Brent repeatedly peaked ahead $110 in Sep during peace talks in M/East

• Conflict continues amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Gulf

• Attacks on tankers in Hormuz hit highest of any week since start of Iran war

• $114.37 key for techs - 78.6% (limit) correction of May-Jul drop

• Test of 2026 high at $126.41 likely if oil rises above $114.37

•
Brent

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded on a 0.69 handle for more than a week

• The traded range since Sept 30 is 0.6904-0.6995

• 0.6904 is 13-week low (on Oct 1); 0.6990 is subsequent high (Tuesday)

• Fed policymakers divided over rate-hike logic in September, minutes show

• Minutes from September's RBA meeting will be published next week

• Fed rate hold expected on Oct 28; RBA rate hold expected on Nov 3

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable drops to test 1.3194 (Wednesday low) as oil prices rise

• US is a net energy exporter; Britain is a net energy importer

• 1.3182 was 14-week low for GBP/USD last week (Oct 1)

• Oct 1 low was respected last Friday (Oct 2), and on Monday

• Fed policymakers divided over rate-hike logic in September, minutes show

• PM Burnham's Labour Party faces challenge from Greens in Starmer's old seat

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Thursday October 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1145-50 (1.2BLN), 1.1165-75 (533M), 1.1190-1.1200 (920M), 1.1210-20 (517M)

• 1.1225 (650M), 1.1275-85 (1.8BLN), 1.1300 (5.6BLN)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (730M), 158.00 (1.3BLN), 158.40-50 (860M), 158.60 (356M), 158.70-75 (711M), 159.00 (3.2BLN)

• EUR/JPY: 174.0 (450M), 176.00 (895M). AUD/JPY: 110.25 (220M), 110.50 (200M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8325-35 (343M), 0.8375 (311M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6945 (180M), 0.6975 (564M), 0.7100 (370M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4100 (926M), 1.4125 (293M), 1.4250 (313M), 1.4295-1.4300 (630M)

• FX options wrap - Risk protection costs rise again as USD regains footing (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Senco Gold rise 9.6% to 351.50 rupees

• Stock on highest intraday percentage gain since July 27

• Jewellery retailer's Q2 total revenue climbs nearly 31% Y/Y, supported by strong festive demand and increasing customer preference for lightweight jewellery, co says

• Expects strong demand in Q3FY27 from festive and wedding season driven by improving rural sentiment and consumer demand resilience

• Says Q2 gold prices were 28% higher from a year ago and volatile

• Antique Stock Broking expects sequential improvement in gross margin and EBITDA margin

• Stock rated "buy" on avg by six analysts, median PT 483.50 rupees - data compiled by LSEG

• Stock up about 6% YTD

(Reporting by Anushka Rajvedi in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's Ramelius Resources slip as much as 1.9% to A$3.67, their lowest level since September 21

• The gold miner reports prelim Sept-quarter production of 48,839 ounces, compared with 55,013 ounces a year earlier

• Says production was marginally impacted by wet weather

• YTD, stock down 10.9%, including session's moves

(Reporting by Swetha Lakshmi)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Thur as global bond market jitters dampen investor sentiment

• AUD sellers build ahead of 0.7036-51 21/100/200-DMA convergence zone

• European debt concerns weighing on EUR, DXY +0.35% from Wed 101.90 low

• FOMC meeting minutes reveal differing views on reasoning for Sep Fed hike

• Futures markets discount potential for Oct Fed hike, but indicate Dec move

• RBA Sep meeting minutes due for release Tue, will be heavily scrutinized

• Range Asia 0.6955-64 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7052 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.8%, hitting their lowest level since September 16

• Sub-index posts its biggest intraday pct fall since October 1

• Gold stocks slide as bullion prices drop to a two-month low, weighed down by elevated US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [GOL/]

• Gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources down 2.1% and 2%, respectively

• YTD, AXGD down more than 3%

(Reporting by Rudrannsh Mehra in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's BPM Minerals rise as much as 7.1% to A$0.225, their biggest intraday pct gain since September 22

• Precious minerals explorer announces gold find at its Forelands Gold Project in Western Australia

• Shares up 29.4% YTD, including session moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD -0.4% from Wed 0.5625 high as DXY climbs 0.4% amid EU debt concerns

• NZD target remains 0.5581 support, break would hasten slide toward 0.5845

• RBNZ Governor Anna Breman speaks Thur, Karen Silk panel discussion Fri

• Futures pricing currently implies 52.9% chance of RBNZ hike on Oct 28

• FOMC meeting minutes reveal differing views on reasons for Sep Fed hike

• Range NZ 0.55985-0.56045, support 0.5581 0.5485, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

CIBC Research reviews the FOMC minutes from the September meeting.

"The September FOMC minutes confirm most members see another rate hike by year end. Members generally saw upside risks to inflation, some assessed that the longer energy prices remained elevated, the greater the risk of cost increases which could lead to broader price pressures. Some also warned that the AI buildout could cause aggregate demand to outpace supply, putting upward pressure on inflation. Several also noted the possibility of further tariff increases as an upside risk to inflation. There was also concerns that after more than five years of above target inflation, that could affect inflation expectations and price-setting decisions. On the labour market, they viewed it as stable and near maximum employment," CIBC notes.

"The staff economic outlook was revised up relative to the July meeting, with inflation projected to reach 2% only in 2029.  On the policy decision, many participants said a higher rate path was a prudent safeguard against persistent inflation driven by strong demand or supply shocks, while others saw it as necessary based on their economic outlook. Some also argued that higher rates would help keep inflation expectations anchored, prevent pressures from spreading, and reflected views that the current policy stance was only mildly restrictive. Beyond the current decision, most participants assessed that another hike would likely be appropriate by year end, but would approach the decision meeting by meeting, guided by incoming data." CIBC adds.

• AUD/USD -0.3% from Wed 0.69839 high as gold trades to a low of $4,065 per oz

• Gold down 1.3%, broad USD index up 0.4% and UST yield curve steepens

• FOMC meeting minutes reveal divergent conjecture on reason for FFR hike

• Futures pricing now implies 82.8% probability of Fed rate hold in Oct

• European debt worries continue to intensify, EUR trading near 17-month lows

• AUD sellers lurking ahead of 0.7052 100-DMA, 0.6865 downside target

• RBA Sep meeting minutes due for release Tue, will garner close attention

• Overnight range 0.69434-745 support 0.6865 0.6834, resistance 0.7052 0.7282
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA


Gold Daily 21-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1190 after 1.1262 traded overnight, pair's drop extended

• Rising French, Italian bond yields, USD & Us yield

gains weighed

• 1.1165 traded early in NY's morning, the drop stalled however, rally ensued

• USD, US yields, oil, USD/CNH all moved downward to help boost EUR/USD

• Gold, silver, equities lifts off their lows also contributed to lift the pair

• 1.1203 traded, EUR/UD sat near 1.1195 late, it traded down -0.57%

• Falling RSIs, widening Bolli bands, consolidation of recent drop are bear signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6960 after 0.6984 traded overnight, pair fell in early NY

• USD, US yield , USD/CNH gains weighed, AUD/USD hit 0.6943

• The pair began lifting though as USD selling emerged & yields softened

• Upward moves in copper, gold, silver & equities also helped lift AUD/USD

• The pair sat near 0.6965 late in the day, traded down only -0.28%

• Falling daily RSI, pair's hold below the 10-DMA are concerns for bulls

• Rising monthly RSI, bull pennant on monthly charts give bulls some comfort
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs on USD/JPY trading outlook.

"This is a low quality trading environment and as a result large one-off often macro-agnostic tickets are determining paths on the day," GS notes.

"Conviction on USD/JPY shorts are lower, and we have parred back bets with the residual position watched versus the top of the cloud around 159.60 – reserve the right to re-engage, but tying up capital there is inhibiting our ability to trade some of the intra-day tactical opportunities," GS adds.

• USD/CAD holds above 1.42 and is back poking through the summer peak at 1.4248

• In turn, the uptrend remains intact but with momentum is slowing

• RSI is flashing a mild bearish divergence - signal is weak for now, but it is another hint at a rally losing steam

• Looking back, spot has rarely sustained above these levels over the past decade outside crisis episodes (2016/2020/2025)

• Though this adds to the pullback view, reversal signals remain lacking

• There is also little appetite to lean against USD as dips are still finding solid demand

• A sub-1.42 move would raise pullback risks, but a clean break above 1.43 would further underpin the trend

• That said, the pair looks to be in consolidation mode between 1.42-1.43 for now
USDCAD hourly


USDCAD weekly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and flags a scope for a move towards 160 on technical factors.

"Yomiuri is today reporting that the government is considering another supplementary budget to be compiled by November and passed through parliament by year-end. With the BoJ already priced for three hikes by July next year, front-end rates are unlikely to move higher on this speculation...The size of any supplementary budget will be important of course and it may well turn out to be small  but there is a risk it could feed into some renewed steepening of the JGB curve that tends to coincide with yen underperformance. Even if small in size it could still blur the lines on the government and the BoJ being in unison in fighting inflation risks," MUFG notes.

"A break of the 200-day moving average will open up the potential for renewed momentum in USD/JPY with the potential for a full retracement back to the 160-level from early in September and to levels where intervention speculation would likely resume," MUFG adds.

EUR/USD rallied sharply on Tuesday, but the pair gave back all of those gains Wednesday and now looks set to make new longer-term lows. Both yield differentials and technical indicators suggest the risks are still tilted to the downside.

In Europe, government bond yield spreads between Germany and France, Italy and Spain widened again. Investors worry that fiscal and election uncertainty in France could spread to other parts of the region, and that concern is keeping bearish sentiment toward the euro intact. The spreads may widen further because relief for French bonds looks unlikely. A senior euro zone official said there has been no contagion from French yields so far, and Bank of France head Emmanuel Moulin said France doesn't need help from the ECB.

US-German 2-year and 10-year yield spreads are widening, which increases the dollar's yield advantage over the euro. These spreads have widened sharply since early September and are holding near their recent wides, which adds to the pressure on EUR/USD.

The technical picture is also bearish. The pair is consolidating its drop from the September 25 daily high. Daily and monthly RSI readings show downward momentum, the 15-month Bollinger bands are widening, and the pair is holding below its downward-sloping 10- and 21-day moving averages.

Several support levels could be tested next: the 50% retracement of the 1.0125–1.2084 rally (about 1.1105), the May 2025 monthly low and the psychological 1.1000 level. If those supports break, the 1.0500–1.0600 range comes into focus.
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Morgan Stanley Research previews today's US September FOMC minutes.

"We and markets continue to decipher the new FOMC's reaction function.

The upcoming minutes may help show how patient or impatient FOMC members are for the return to target inflation, how much they've taken on oil price pressures as threatening that target, and how they're viewing the recent strengthening in growth and labor market indicators," MS notes.