(Repeat with no changes )
• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Tuesday September 8
• EUR/USD: 1.1560-70 (2.3BLN), 1.1585-90 (1.3BLN), 1.1600-10 (506M), 1.1620-25 (831M), 1.1630-35 (1.3BLN)
• 1.1650 (1.3BLN), 1.1670 (513M), 1.1700 (2.2BLN)
• USD/CHF: 0.8080-85 (273M), 0.8100 (583M). EUR/CHF: 0.9335-40 (390M), 0.9400 (180M)
• GBP/USD: 1.3460-70 (489M), 1.3555-60 (324M). EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (725M)
• AUD/USD: 0.7135 (1.8BLN), 0.7145-50 (880M), 0.7185 (362M), 0.7240 (511M)
• NZD/USD: 0.5810 (603M), 0.5850 (205M), 0.5895-0.5905 (242M)
• USD/CAD: 1.3720 (280M), 1.3785 (506M), 1.3800 (336M), 1.3825 (258M)
• USD/JPY: 151.00 (253M), 153.50 (710M), 154.50 (232M), 155.00 (793M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
Sept 8 (Reuters) - The price of natural gas, which has risen swiftly to a near four-year high since June, could weigh on EUR/USD.
The euro zone imports almost 90% of its natural gas needs, as well as all of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). The United States is the dominant LNG supplier. LNG prices have almost doubled since June.
During the period in which gas prices have surged, EUR/USD rallied from 1.1353 on June 24 to 1.1711 on August 21, before settling near 1.1600 in September. Traders who were short almost €9 billion pared their bearish positions to around €3 billion in the first week of September, leaving them less prepared for a decline that could result from higher gas prices.
Although the price increase following Russia's invasion of
Ukraine in 2022 was far greater — causing the euro zone's
current account to swing sharply from surplus to deficit — the
scale of this year's move is still significant. A Middle East
conflict that was expected to last weeks has instead endured for
almost seven months, providing sufficient reason to hedge the
growing risk that changes in trade and capital flows could
seriously undermine the euro.
EURUSD and natural gas
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• Yen's rally to seven-month high weighs on dollar ahead of US CPI
• USD/JPY has dropped from 154.31 to 152.89, Tuesday, EBS data shows
• The yen's sudden surge is upsetting the carry trade faithful
• USD/JPY on course to end the week below the broken 154.78 Fibo, that would be bearish
• 154.78 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 139.89 to 163.99 (April to July) rise
• Fin Min Katayama emphasized that Japan and the US remain aligned on FX policy
• BOJ commentary, nudge from Bessent cements Japan Sept rate hike
• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log
correlations are high above +0.5
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
Correlation Chart
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• AUD/USD has traded a 17 pip range thus far Tuesday; 0.7206-0.7223
• 0.7223 is two pips shy of Monday's four-month high
• AUD supported by hawkish guidance from RBA's Hunter
• Markets currently see two-in-three chance of RBA rate hike on Sept 29
• China August iron ore imports up 0.4% vs expected decline
• Iron ore is Australia's single-biggest export earner
AUDUSD
(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• EUR/USD 1.1623-35 EBS range on Tuesday
• The influential 200-DMA is 1.1634
• Traders have been betting on euro dropping since start July
• Probability of short covering would increase on any close over 200-DMA
• Potential buy signal if 21-DMA at 1.1612 rises over 200-DMA at 1.1634
•
EURUSD
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Tuesday September 8
• EUR/USD: 1.1560-70 (2.3BLN), 1.1585-90 (1.3BLN), 1.1600-10 (506M), 1.1620-25 (831M), 1.1630-35 (1.3BLN)
• 1.1650 (1.3BLN), 1.1670 (513M), 1.1700 (2.2BLN)
• USD/CHF: 0.8080-85 (273M), 0.8100 (583M). EUR/CHF: 0.9335-40 (390M), 0.9400 (180M)
• GBP/USD: 1.3460-70 (489M), 1.3555-60 (324M). EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (725M)
• AUD/USD: 0.7135 (1.8BLN), 0.7145-50 (880M), 0.7185 (362M), 0.7240 (511M)
• NZD/USD: 0.5810 (603M), 0.5850 (205M), 0.5895-0.5905 (242M)
• USD/CAD: 1.3720 (280M), 1.3785 (506M), 1.3800 (336M), 1.3825 (258M)
• USD/JPY: 151.00 (253M), 153.50 (710M), 154.50 (232M), 155.00 (793M)
• FX options wrap - USD/JPY roars again, EUR/USD sleepwalks into event risks (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• EUR/USD doing little in Asia, 1.1623-34 EBS and in stasis
• Holding in tad lower 1.1584-1.1641 range established September 3
• Still capped in area of flat-ish 200-DMA at 1.1634, 100-DMA 1.1561 below
• In middle of now tapering 1.1408-1.1746 weekly Ichimoku cloud
• Massive nearby option expiries to again help contain spot action
• On 1.15 handle total E8.1 bln, 1.1600-25 E1.4 bln, 1.1630-1.1700 E6.4 bln
• EUR/JPY in almost free fall, 179.32 at Asia open to 177.86 EBS so far
• JPY bid broadly across the board as shorts continuing to pare positions
• EUR/JPY lowest since 177.37 Nov 10, 2025, Nov trough 175.75 on 5th
• EUR/GBP 0.8577-87, above 0.8548-71 daily Ichi cloud, below 0.8600 100-DMA
• Option expiries today include 0.8600 E725 mln, some between 0.8535-60
• EUR/CHF quiet, 0.9405-09 EBS, in higher 0.9374-0.9435 range since Sept 2
• Some option expiries today in 0.9335-40 window
• Related comments , , ,
• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD nearby option expiries this week:
EUR/JPY:
(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• Shares of Barton Gold rise 4.4% to A$1.18, their highest level since March 5
• Gold developer on track for best day since August 28, if gains hold
• Co receives approval of its environmental Scoping Report for its Tunkillia gold project from Department for Energy and Mining South Australia
• The report is prepared as part of the environmental approval process for a proposed mine or mining expansion
• Stock down 10.6% YTD
(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)
• AUD/USD flat Tue, trading subdued in run-off from U.S. Labor Day holiday
• Westpac Sep consumer sentiment index -5.2%, interest rates & fuel impacting
• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney later Tue
• AUD targeting 0.72825 50-month high, break above opens topside toward 0.7661
• Iran warns U.S. of retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf
• U.S. Aug PPI due Thur (poll +0.4% m/m) followed by CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)
• Range Asia 0.72156-23 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7277-82 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA
(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
• USD/JPY takes another dive yesterday as 155.00 pierced, stops galore hit
• Recent and past USD longs take cover en masse, carries reversed
• All took place in US holiday-thinned trading, USD/JPY 156.30 to 154.05
• More downside early Asia today, 154.31 to 153.80 EBS, bias still down?
• Japanese exporters especially in sell mode now, to cap rallies
• Most USD assumptions for fiscal year 155+, plenty done but more to go?
• Japanese importers on other hand can now take their time, in no rush now
• USD/JPY now lowest since 153.07 Feb 18, February trough 152.28 on 12th
• Tests towards January trough of 152.10 on 27th, 152.00 very possible
• Option expiries today include 153.50 $710 mln, some between 154.00-50
• US open today, moves to be eyed closely for direction going forward
• Seems no doubt more JPY buy-backs may be in store
• Related comments , , ,
• And , also ,
• Other markets , , ,
• And , , for more click on [FXBUZ]
USD/JPY:
(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• GBP/USD +0.25% from Mon 1.35075 low as DXY slips in holiday impacted trade
• BoE MPC members (including Governor Bailey) before Treasury committee Tue
• UK finance minister Healy upbeat on economy despite tough decisions ahead
• Iran flags retaliatory attacks on U.S. oil & gas infrastructure in the Gulf
• UK Jul GDP estimate, manufacturing output, and trade balance all due Fri
• U.S. Aug PPI due Thur (poll +0.4% m/m) followed by CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)
• GBP edging toward 1.3555 21-DMA, rally may accelerate on break above
• Range Asia 1.35399-42, support 1.3475 1.3274, resistance 1.3675 1.3870
GBP Daily 21/55/100-DMA
DXY Daily 55-DMA
(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
• AUD/USD continues to grind higher, +0.3% late Mon as buyers remain active
• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney Tue
• AUD targeting 0.72825 50-month high, topside wide-open towards 0.7661
• Iran threatens retaliatory attacks on U.S. energy infrastructure in the Gulf
• Aug U.S. inflation data will be pivotal, PPI due Wed followed by CPI on Thur
• Overnight range 0.7212-25 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7277-82
0.7661
AUD Weekly 52-WMA
(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
• EUR/USD edges higher, underpinned by JPY’s sharp gains vs USD
• Spot is retesting the top of the recent 100-200-day MA range at 1.1563-1.1634
• Despite the bid, EUR still faces downside risks from higher energy costs
• Event risk ahead - ECB policy decision (Thur), U.S. PPI/CPI (Thur/Fri)
• ECB hike is widely expected, focus shifts to projections and the statement
• U.S. inflation figures likely to set the overall tone for
the pair
EURUSD daily chart
Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))
(corrects link in 4th bullet)
• EUR/GBP has traded a six pip range since the European open; 0.8685-0.8691
• Those parameters are within Friday's 0.85831-0.8597 range
• Far-right win leaves Germany's Merz shaken as AfD plots path to power
• UK finance minister Healey seeks to set out brighter vision before tough budget
• Four BoE MPC members appear before UK Treasury Select Committee Tuesday
• ECB rate hike expected Thursday. Another 6-3 BoE hold vote
expected next week
EURGBP
(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• Cable rose to 1.35445 during the London morning as dollar sank against yen
• 1.35445 is five pips shy of Friday's peak (scaled before NFP beat boosted USD)
• USD/JPY slid to EBS seven-month low of 154.05 during the London morning
• 1.3521 was Asian session high for GBP/USD (1.3482 was Friday's low)
• UK finance minister Healey seeks to set out brighter vision before tough budget
• UBS forecasts 25 bps Fed rate hikes in both September and
December
GBPUSD
(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
Sept 7 (Reuters) - USD/JPY bears could tighten their grip on this market if they manage to force a daily close below a broken Fibonacci level.
After recently hitting a four-decade low against the dollar, the tide appears to be turning for the battered yen as a host of factors smoke out brash traders who had spent years betting against the Japanese currency.
While USD/JPY has fallen through the 154.78 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 139.89 to 163.99 (April to July) EBS rise, bears need spot to end trading this week below this broken level. That would increase the likelihood for a bigger drop to initially test the 151.94 level, a 50% retrace of the same 139.89 to 163.99 rise. Especially as the 14-week momentum reading turned negative last week.
However, if USD/JPY does not register a weekly close under
the 154.78 Fibo that would hint at a bear-trap, which is set
when a market breaks below a technical level but subsequently
reverses and is usually a bullish sign.
Weekly Chart
(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• Yen's changing fortunes might finally be spooking the bears
• Takaichi's reflationist aide projects Bank of Japan rate hike in September
• USD/JPY has slumped from 156.30 to 154.05, on Monday, on the EBS
• Spot's third-largest daily drop of 2026, last Thursday, continues to weigh
• Fourteen-day momentum reading is negative, reinforcing the overall bearish market structure
• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log
correlations are high above +0.5
Daily Chart
Daily Chart
Correlation Chart
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• USD/JPY drops sharply from 156.30 to 154.32 EBS
• Weekly ichimoku cloud spans 154.62-149.90
• Thick cloud represents an area of strong support
• Average USD/JPY rate f/c by Japanese firms for 2026/27 is 152.57
• Drop stretched below 154.87 base 20-week Bollinger bands
•
USD/JPY
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• Last weeks sharp USD/JPY drop boosted FX option prices to late July intervention led highs
• Benchmark 1-month implied actually exceeded the late July peak at 10.5 after spiking from 7.15 to 10.65
• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals jumped 1.75 to 2.75 JPY calls over puts amid a surge in downside strike demand
• FX option prices/implied vols have eased as spot now consolidates, but they remain well above prior lows
• 1-month implied 9.55 and 1-month 25 delta risk reversals 2.4, while other expiry dates/contracts follow suit
• Related trade flows still outweigh that seen in other currency pairs in Asia/early London Monday
• Related - FX options wrap - USD/JPY warning as NFP fails
to shift the dial
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals
USD/JPY FXO implied volatility
(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• Cable has traded an 22.5 pip range thus far Monday; 1.35075-1.3530
• 1.3530 is also high water-mark since Friday's NFP data beat spurred low of 1.3482
• UK's new finance minister Healey makes his first major speech on Monday
• Healey will announce his first budget next month (October 28)
• UK house prices fall for first time since November 2023, Lloyds data shows
• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 11% to 49,575 contracts in
week to Sept 1
GBPUSD
(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
• Shares of Australia's Green & Gold Minerals fall as much as 7% at A$0.130, hitting their lowest level since August 21
• Stock headed for its biggest pct fall since August 31, if trends hold
• Gold exploration and development company announces a pro-rata renounceable entitlement offer to raise about A$3.2 million
• Offer is priced at A$0.10 per share, representing a 28.6% discount to the stock's last close on September 4
• Company says proceeds from the offer will be used to fund exploration at company's existing projects and as general working capital
• Stock down 31.6% YTD, including session's moves
(Reporting by Shravya Marakini in Bengaluru)
• AUD/USD flat Mon as investors ponder global inflation and interest rates
• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney Tue
• Futures pricing implies 67.4% chance of Sep 29 RBA rate hike
• Aug U.S. inflation updates critical, PPI due Wed followed by CPI on Thur
• Trump's attempted interference with Fed policy having limited impact
• AUD targeting 0.72825 50-month high, topside potential rises markedly above
• Range Asia 0.7197-11 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7215 0.7277-82
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA
(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
• GBP/USD down 0.1% in cautious Asian trading after closing unchanged Friday
• Undermined by robust U.S. jobs data on Fri which boosts Fed rate hike bets
• Expectations of a 25 bps Sep Fed rate hike jumps to 58.3% from 49.4% Thu
• U.S. PPI Thu, CPI Fri key; will determine whether Fed hikes rates on Sep 16
• UK has a busy Fri; July GDP, industrial and manufacturing output, trade due
• Parliamentary testimony of BoE Governor Bailey, other policymakers eyed Tue
• UK finance minister Healey seeks growth through decentralising power
• UK recruiters see first rise in permanent role hiring since 2022
• Strong support at 1.3470-75, then 1.3444-47 where 100 & 200-day MAs converge
• Resistance 1.3550, 1.3570, 1.3600; Friday range 1.3482-1.3549
• Asian range 1.3507-1.3521; U.S. markets closed for a holiday
GBP:
(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
• AUD/USD +0.1% Mon, edges towards key 0.7210-15 resistance zone in Asia
• Pair targets 0.72825 50-month high, topside potential rises markedly above
• Aug U.S. inflation updates now pivotal, PPI due Wed followed by CPI on Thur
• Trump threatens to stop trading with some countries unless FOMC cuts FFR
• Weekend U.S.-Iran flare up having limited early week impact
• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney Tue
• Range Asia 0.7197-11 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7215 0.7277-82
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA
(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
