• NY opened near 0.7075 after 0.7056 traded overnight, rally extended early NY

• Downbeat US July retail sales sank the USD & US yields

• Gold, silver, copper rallied & USD/CNH fell towards 6.7400

• AUD/USD rallied above the 50% Fib of 0.7277-0.6867, hit 2-1/2-month high of 0.7095

• Then US dollar, yields, USD/CNH then moved upward & gold, silver eroded some gains

• AUD/USD neared 0.7080 late in the session, it traded up +0.28% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; pair held above the 50% Fibo & the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Rising RSIs & August's monthly bull hammer reinforce bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan Research discusses BoJ rate outlook and keeps targeting USD/JPY at 164 by year-end.

"Rate-hike expectations have increased not only at the front end but also further out the curve. However, this has not translated into yen appreciation; instead, the relationship between BoJ hike expectations and JPY has become a negative correlation," JPM notes.

"Our Japan economists have revised their forecast to reflect a somewhat faster tightening pace by the BoJ, expecting the policy rate to reach 2.00% by end- 2027. However: (1) a move to 2% is already largely priced in, and (2) the negative correlation between BoJ hike expectations and JPY is likely to persist for the time being. Therefore, we think that a faster BoJ hiking path will only have a limited impact on our medium- to long-term yen-weakness view. We keep our year-end USD/JPY target unchanged at 164," JPM adds.

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon trading +0.30% at 1.3528; NorAm range 1.3561-1.3527

• Dollar was broadly offered after US retail sales confirms less-hawkish Fed policy path

• LSEG's IRPR indicating lower odds for Sept/Oct Fed hike, sees +23bp by Dec FOMC

• BoE looking a tad more hawkish, after post-Fed dovish shift; 63% odds for Nov hike

• Further out the front-end strips, Fed seen +33bp by Dec 2027, BoE +57bp; advantage GBP

• Next wk's UK jobs, CPI in focus for policy clues; soft prints may temper current ebullience

• GBP$ res 1.3561 Friday high, 1.3566 rising upper 30-d Bolli, 1.3658 the May 1 daily high

• Supt 1.3500 psychological lvl, 1.3475 daily low Aug 13, 1.3415 rising 200-DMA

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses yen's latest positioning.

"Japan's largest FX intervention in 15 years forced a sharp reduction in tactical Yen carry positions- even bigger than the initial unwind after the July 2024 operations. But the less Yen-positive macro backdrop likely in part explains why USD/JPY has already reversed nearly half of its initial decline," GS notes.

"Despite the significant drop in speculative positioning, more unwinds can follow if the right conditions align. Positioning could even flip net long if the macro and market backdrop argues for a stronger Yen, as it did in July-August 2024. Recession risk is much lower today than in the summer of 2024, and a bullish shift in JPY sentiment often requires the emergence of growth concerns.

But markets now view a September Bank of Japan hike as roughly 75% likely, and a faster pace of hikes could keep the Yen stronger for longer without a shift in the global growth backdrop," GS adds.

• Cable pushes through July’s 1.3556 high, tagging a fresh three-month peak at 1.3560

• USD under pressure after a soft US retail sales print (-0.6% vs +0.1% m/m)

• Data further reinforces case for Fed hold at the September meeting

• With sterling clearing the July resistance, 1.36 is the next near-term objective

• A decisive break here opens the door to a cluster of hurdles between 1.3658-1.3867

• Focus shifts to next week’s UK data deluge
GBPUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research discusses JPY outlook from the latest output of its quant models.

"More than a week has passed since the joint US-Japan FX intervention. So far, the operation appears relatively successful as, compared with previous episodes, investors have been reluctant to fade the rally. Indeed, the authorities' strong commitment and the high cost of failure have strengthened our bullish conviction on the JPY, and we recently revised our YE USDJPY forecast to 149 from 152," BofA notes.

"However, our quant signals raise some red flags for near-term JPY strength. Last week we saw an aggressive mean reversion in JPY skew, and option flow moved strongly in favor of JPY puts vs EUR and AUD, indicating that investors are moderating their worries on further upside. Additionally, our technical matrix has yet to trigger any positioning trend signals, while up/down vol and residual skew indicate that positioning and short-term sentiment are not yet supportive of the uptrend. Finally, our time-zone analysis indicates that JPY buying was not broad-based last week, with USDJPY finding consistent support during US trading hours," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD traded 0.7056-0.7078 overnight, NY opened near that high

• The pair traded up +0.22% in early NY on the back of broad-based USD selling

• USD sank despite firmer US yields and a drop in gold

• AUD/USD rallied back above the 50% Fib of 0.7277-0.6867

• Techs lean bullish; consolidation persists, RSIs rising, pair above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• The monthly bull hammer candle for August reinforces the bullish tech signals

• US July retail sales, Aug. University of Michigan are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Range trading remains the dominant theme for AUD, with spot oscillating around the 100-day MA at 0.7058

• The 0.7075 area has been retested but continues to cap topside momentum for now

• A clean break above resistance would improve the technical picture, likely opens up a run for 0.7200

• Initial support is located at 0.7050, followed by the psychologically important 0.7000 level

• Low-vol backdrop supportive of carry demand, which should continue to underpin AUD vs low-yielding FX like CHF

• U.S. retail sales is the main near-term event risk, although the release is unlikely to materially alter the broader FX picture

• In turn, tight ranges and a lack of sustained directional momentum are likely to remain the prevailing conditions for AUD/USD
AUDUSD daily


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Yen's slide to weekly loss prompts bets for another intervention

• USD/JPY slips from 159.53 to 159.07 Friday, according to EBS data, but is stuck within the cloud

• The daily cloud currently spans the wide 158.92-161.42 region

• Spot has also been limited by 159.60, a 50% retrace of 163.99-155.20 intervention fueled slump

• The long tail on the Wednesday candlestick hints at gains in coming sessions

• However, beware USD/JPY and EUR/JPY usually struggles in August

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable making another attempt to establish itself above 1.35, with the July high (1.3556) the next topside target

• A sustained hold above 1.35 would likely encourage fresh buying interest

• But price action remains subdued with GBP struggling to notably capitalise on tepid U.S. CPI/PPI data

• USD pullback may also lose momentum with Fed hike pricing appearing to find a floor around 25%

• This should make a clean topside break in Cable more difficult to achieve

• For now, spot appears likely to remain confined to its broader sideways range

• Ongoing lack of directional momentum continues to favour carry trades
GBPUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• FX options expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Friday August 14

• EUR/USD: 1.1425 (520M), 1.1450 (766M), 1.1475 (491M), 1.1490-95 (1.3B), 1.1500 (1.6B), 1.1540-45 (1.5B)

• EUR/USD: 1.1550 (1.4B), 1.1560-65 (427M), 1.1575-80 (660M), 1.1585-90 (684M), 1.1600 (746M), 1.1615-20 (459M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1635-40 (730M), 1.1650-55 (389M)

• USD/JPY: 155.00 (3.1B), 156.25 (200M), 156.55-60 (208M), 156.60-65 (209M), 157.95-158.00 (2.0B), 158.25-30 (413M)

• USD/JPY: 159.00 (360M), 159.35-40 (350M), 159.45-50 (645M), 159.55-60 (590M), 159.70-75 (250M), 160.00 (1.4B)

• USD/JPY: 160.60-65 (436M), 160.66 (397M), 161.90 (400M), 162.00 (223M), 163.00 (349M). EUR/JPY: 180.00 (200M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 (500M), 1.3320-25 (290M), 1.3400 (300M), 1.3435 (436M), 1.3500 (296M), 1.3510-15 (781M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3555-60 (434M), 1.3650 (220M), 1.3660 (410M), 1.3700 (219M). EUR/GBP: 0.8450-55 (339M), 0.8595-8600 (201M)

• USD/CHF: 0.8075-80 (204M), 0.8150-55 (779M), 0.8155-60 (1.0B)

• AUD/USD: 0.6800 (204M), 0.6900 (305M), 0.6960-65 (238M), 0.6970-75 (245M), 0.6985-90 (260M), 0.7000 (509M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7040 (254M), 0.7050 (303M), 0.7100 (671M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3250 (400M), 1.3915-20 (333M), 1.3940 (230M), 1.3975 (565M), 1.3990-95 (327M), 1.4000-05 (203M), 1.4035-40 (228M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4050 (370M), 1.4100 (1.4B), 1.4135-40 (207M), 1.4225-30 (879M), 1.4275 (230M), 1.5000 (527M)​

• USD/ZAR: 15.8000 (300M), 16.1920-2000 (210M), 16.2000-2500 (305M)
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders who often follow techs are short of euros

• The 21-DMA is crossing above 55-DMA - bullish

• Shallow dip to 1.1512 from Aug high at 1.1580 - bullish

• EUR/USD yet to close above 100-DMA 1.1567

• Targets for a break: 1.1599, 1.1626, 1.1652

• FX calm may create two winners and two losers

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD flat Fri as markets continue to recalibrate Fed hike expectations

• Moderating U.S. data weighing on UST yields as rate hike urgency subsides

• AUD unlikely break 0.7090 resistance short term sans left-field catalyst

• U.S. Jul retail sales due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in Brisbane Wed, AU Jul jobs data due Thur

• U.S. & Iran ensconced in Strait of Hormuz stalemate, resolution not close

• Range Asia 0.7056-664 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7090 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD consolidates in Asia after closing slightly lower Thursday

• Failure to rally on positive news disappoints bulls

• Moderating U.S. inflation, lower Sep Fed hike odds fail to lift GBP

• UK GDP +0.3% in June from May versus forecasts of zero growth, shrugged off

• Gulf ceasefire, World Cup, and hot weather boost consumers spending

• June employment, July inflation due next week, key for BoE rate expectations

• July Retail sales, August consumer confidence, and flash PMIs are also due

• Resistance 1.3530-40, 1.3556 July high; support 1.347580, 1.3450, 1.3400-10

• Thursday range 1.3475-1.3513, Asia 1.3489-1.3498
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 2.8% in their biggest intraday pct drop since July 30

• Sub-index on course for biggest single-day drop in two weeks

• Bullion prices fell more than 1% overnight [GOL/]

• Gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources down between 1.5% and 2.5%

• YTD, sub-index down 5.4%

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• Little change in USD/JPY with pair holding on 159, USD still broadly bid

• That said, little to move markets now, market summer holiday-thinned

• Last day of Japan O-Bon holidays for most but slow start eyed Monday

• Continuing Japanese importer demand at each Tokyo fix, Gotobi Saturday

• Demand from foreign investors hedging Japanese stock buys too?

• USD/JPY 159.40-53 EBS, ensconced in 158.92-161.41 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Heavy from area of flat, 159.59 daily kijun, 100-DMA 160.00 above

• Holding above 159.36 hourly tenkan, 159.30 kijun, 159.07-17 cloud

• Option expiries in area today 159.00-45 $880 mln, 159.50-75 $1.4 bln

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower still, 2s to 253, 10s 180 bps

• Seemingly no end to Middle East impasse, to remain USD supportive

• That said, further USD gains could be met by fresh FX intervention

• Related comments , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On BOJ , Fed-speak , US data

• On Middle East , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.6% from Thur 0.58216 low as U.S. data weighs on DXY & UST yields

• U.S. Jul PPI +4.7% y/y (poll +4.9%), initial jobless claims 209k (poll 202k)

• U.S.-Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz, stalemate set to continue

• NZ manufacturing expansion slows sharply in Jul, PMI 54.3 (prior 60.1)

• Futures pricing presently implies 85.4% chance of 25 bps RBNZ hike Sep 2

• U.S. Jul retail sales due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m

• Range NZ 0.5849-575, support 0.5760-65 0.5627, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.2% from Thur 0.7044 low as tepid data softened DXY & UST yields

• U.S. Jul PPI +4.7% y/y (poll +4.9%), initial jobless claims 209k (poll 202k)

• U.S.-Iran stalemate over Strait of Hormuz continues, no resolution in sight

• AUD flat wtd, 0.7090 resistance zone pivotal for medium-term direction

• U.S Jul retail sales due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.1% m/m

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in Brisbane Wed, AU Jul jobs data due Thur

• Overnight range 0.7046-67 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7090 0.7200
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Goldman Sachs Research summarizes its latest projections for the Fed and ECB rates.

"In the US, we expect real GDP growth of 2.1% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting subdued consumer spending growth but a boost from the Al boom via higher equity wealth as well as strong capex.  We expect the unemployment rate to end 2026 at 4.4%...We expect the Fed to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% for the rest of 2026," GS nots.

"In the Euro area, we expect real GDP growth of 0.8% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting resilient activity data but ongoing headwinds from elevated energy prices as well as subdued consumer confidence...We expect the ECB to deliver one more 25bp hike in September to a peak policy rate of 2.5%, although the risks are skewed toward further tightening," GS adds.

• GBP$ weakened in NY afternoon, -0.10% at 1.3483; NorAm range 1.3513-1.3484

• Despite slight yaw after UK GDP/output and US PPI data, pair remains anchored near 1.35

• UST yields off session low support slight USD bid in NY afternoon

• Next key data UK CPI Aug 19; a event but prob not a major mover given seasonal factors

• Most data moot considering the recent oil vol around Mideast conflict, MoU unraveling

• GBP$ supt 1.3475 daily low Aug 13, 1.3413/10 the 200/100-DMA area, 1.3334 Jul 30 low

• Res 1.3513 Thursday high, 1.3553 upper 30-d Bolli, 1.3610 May 10 daily high

Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1535 after 1.1512 traded overnight, the pair rallied early

• USD, US yields , USD/CNH fell after below estimate US July PPI

• Upward moves in stocks, gold, silver helped fuel the EUR/USD lift

• 1.1546 traded but USD buying emerged and EUR/USD fell, sat near 1.1525 late

• The pair traded up only +0.035 in NY's afternoon and a daily doji formed

• Daily RSI diverged on today's 7-session low which is encouraging for bulls

• Pair's hold above the 21- & 55-DMAs, rising monthly RSI also give bulls comfort
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7055 after 0.7044 traded overnight, pair neared 0.7045 early

• A rally ensued however after US July headline PPI came in below estimates

• USD, US yields fell while stocks, gold, silver, copper moved upward

• AUD/USD turned positive, hit 0.7067 but bulls ran out of gas as USD buying took hold

• USD/CNH rallied toward flat, gold & silver moved down & stocks eroded some gains

• AUD/USD turned lower again, sat near 0.7055 late in the day, traded down -0.08%

• Techs lean bullish however; consolidation of gains off July 29 low persists

• Pair remains above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs and monthly RSI indicates upward momentum
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)