• AUD/USD off highs in Asia, yet remains bid, +8.6% since Apr 9 low

• Bounces from hourly lower Bollinger band, likely to re-test highs

• Broad deterioration in USD sentiment continues to support the pair

• Trump's tirade towards Jerome Powell fuels concern over Fed independence

• Quiet week ahead for AU data; U.S. S&P PMI due Wed, durable goods Thur

• AUD range Asia 0.64006-22, support 0.6180, resistance 0.6469 0.6550
AUD Hourly & Daily

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

April 22 (Reuters) - The sky continues to fall for USD/JPY with the pair down to as low as 140.48 on EBS Monday. The bias remains down with de-dollarisation proceeding apace and especially so after U.S. President Donald Trump's bashing of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell , .

Key supports are eyed below, and these are expected to remain in speculators' sights going forward. Daily supports include Monday's 140.48 low, 140.45 and 140.33 on September 18 and 17, 2024.

Then there is 140.00, a level associated with possible option barriers. These barriers could be large and stops below possibly massive. A break below this level could target 139.58, a trough seen on September 16, 2024.

Fibonacci retracement levels are also on being eyed closely. Fibo 38.2% retracement of the 102.59 to 161.96 move between January 2021 and July 2024 comes in at 139.28. 50% retracement is at 132.27 and Fibo 61.8% at 125.26.

Tokyo players suggest 50% retracement of the 2021-2024 move could be achieved as the year progresses and especially if the Bank of Japan maintains its hawkish stance , . The Fed, for its part, could hold off on further cuts indefinitely pending data on the effects of U.S. tariffs and other Trump administration policies , .
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY monthly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Off 0.05% after closing up 0.6%, with the U.S. dollar off 0.95%

• The safe-haven USD is under pressure as Trump/Fed comments fuel selling

• UK PM Starmer discussed trade with Trump, Downing Street says

• There is no major UK data or BOE events - USD and risk appetite lead GBP

• Charts - Monday's 1.3421 2025 trend high sustains the current uptrend

• 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages rise, as 21-day Bollinger bands expand

• Daily momentum studies climb/crest - positive signals suggest further gains

• Thursday's 1.3203 low and then last week's 1.3068 base are initial supports

• The 2024 1.3434 high is the next significant resistance, and under pressure
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Up 0.1% after closing 1.05% higher with the U.S. dollar off 0.95%

• USD sold off on Trump's attack on Fed Chair Powell's refusal to cut rates

• Conflict between Trump and the Fed underscores the EUR as a safe-haven

• Putin says he is open to direct peace talks with Ukraine - progress?

• EU says it will enforce digital rules irrespective of CEO and location

• Charts - 21-day Bollinger bands expand, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages rise

• Daily momentum studies climb - signals retain a positive trending setup

• Yesterday's 1.1572 top - 1.1692 October 2021 high are the first resistance

• Monday's 1.1393 low and then April 15th 1.1264 low are the initial support

• A close below the rising 1.1332 10-DMA would flag caution for bulls
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD sits +3.7% for 2025 after breaking key 0.6390 technical resistance

• Pair continues to benefit from a broad deterioration in USD sentiment

• U.S. assets under renewed pressure following Trump's tirade at Fed's Powell

• AUD approaching 200-DMA, crossover will further invigorate bulls

• Quiet week ahead for AU data; U.S. S&P PMI due Wed, durable goods Thur

• Monday range AUD 0.6374-0.6436, support 0.6180, resistance 0.6469 0.6550
AUD Daily

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

April 21 (Reuters) - The dollar index recovered some ground after hitting a three-year low earlier on Monday, but it was still lower in afternoon trade, pressured by worries over Federal Reserve independence, declining U.S. assets, and falling energy prices.

DXY reached its most oversold level on the 14-day RSI since July, 2020 following a weekend gap down in thin liquidity. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, warning that the U.S. economy faces a potential slowdown unless interest rates are promptly reduced. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee favored a wait-and-see approach for policy, saying that if tariff impacts remain confined to the 11% of the economy tied to imports, their overall effect may be relatively minor.

Trade is top of mind when hundreds of finance leaders descend on Washington this week at the semi-annual gatherings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group.

In U.S. data, an index of leading indicators fell 0.7% in March. Earnings, central bank speakers and PMIs are also on this week's docket. EUR/USD surged to 1.1575, its highest level in over three years, before paring gains.

Gains were exaggerated by 1.15 barrier options and thin liquidity due to the Easter holiday. EUR/USD remains overbought, yet the bulls' case is bolstered by narrow retracements, a bullish crossover of the 55-DMA above the 200-DMA and increasing position building in futures. Nearby EUR/USD support lies at the April 15 low of 1.1263. The common currency may receive another boost if Ukraine peace talks progress this week. Sources told Reuters that the European Union is looking at ways to make it easier for U.S. gas exports to comply with emissions rules.

GBP/USD trimmed its gains after nearing the 2024 high of 1.3434, as Easter Monday kept trading volumes subdued. Despite entering overbought territory following a 10-day advance, bullish momentum is expected to provide support. The 5-day moving average at 1.3281 and the April 18 low at 1.3262 serve as near-term support levels. This week’s focus includes PMIs and several appearances from Bank of England speakers.

USD/JPY remains on the defensive as U.S. equities and energy prices come under pressure.

Key events this week include Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato's visit to the U.S., as well as April Tokyo CPI and PMI data. Attention is centered on USD/JPY's 2024 low at 139.58, which lies just below the key psychological level of 140. Trend-following resistance is noted at the 200-hour moving average of 143.13 in USD/JPY. Sources indicate that the Bank of Japan is expected to communicate at next week's policy meeting that higher U.S. tariffs are unlikely to disrupt the ongoing cycle of rising wages and inflation.

Treasury yields were mixed as the curve steepened sharply. The 2s-10s curve was up about 12 basis points to +53.0bp.

The S&P 500 sank 3.3%, dragged lower by broad sector losses.

Oil slid nearly 2.2% on signs of progress in U.S.-Iran talks, while demand worries and weather sent natural gas down 6.5%.

Gold rose over 3% to a new record while copper was nearly unchanged. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +1.12%, USD/JPY -1.05%, GBP/USD +0.63%, AUD/USD +0.62%, DXY -1.07%, EUR/JPY -0.06%, GBP/JPY -0.46%, AUD/JPY -0.46%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

(Change Headline)

• USD/JPY trims loss after falling from 142.15 to 140.48 low on EBS

• Firmer 10-year Treasury yields, low Easter Monday volume slows momentum

• Oil and share prices slide, Pres Trump reiterates call for Fed Powell to cut

• BOJ expected to maintain tightening bias: sources

• Fin Min Kato visit to US, April Tokyo CPI and PMIs this week

• US earnings, trade talks and IMF/World Bank also slated

• Lower highs in pair weighs; DXY may bounce after weekend gap lower

• Volatilities, skews not reacting to spot shifts

• 100-hour MA at 142.14 and 200-hour MA at 143.13 (approx 9-EMA)may cap

• Supp: 140.33 Sept 17 low; 140.00 pscyhol; 139.58 Sept 16

• Resist: 141.62-64 April 16-17 lows 142.52 April 18 high; 143.16 9-EMA
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Adjust decimal in supports)

• GBP/USD pares gain after nearing its 2024 high of 1.3434

• Session range is 1.3266-1.3421; volumes thinned by Easter Monday

• Ten-day advance sends pair into overbought zone on 14-day RSI

• Settles below upper Bollinger though momentum, MAs supports bull trend

• May see brief DXY rebound after gap down on Monday

• Week ahead includes PMIs, BOE speakers featuring Gov. Bailey

• Supp: 1.3281 5-DMA ; 1.3262 Apr 18 low; 1.3207 Apr 3 high

• Resist: 1.3434 2024 high; 1.3640 Feb 14 2022 high
GBP

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

HSBC argues that the US dollar is now trading below what rate differentials would imply, pointing to a growing “discount” driven by policy instability and structural concerns. Traditional FX drivers no longer explain the USD’s trajectory, and further weakness is expected against safe havens and the euro.

Key Points:

• USD Undervalued vs Rate Differentials:
  Despite relatively supportive rate spreads, the USD is underperforming, reflecting broader investor discomfort with U.S. policy direction.

• Policy Uncertainty a Key Drag:
  With no clarity on a stable U.S. trade policy regime, investors are pricing in ongoing volatility and geopolitical risk, undermining USD appeal.

• Traditional Drivers Losing Influence:
  Historical relationships like interest rate spreads and economic differentials are failing to explain recent USD moves, suggesting a structural shift.

• Targeted USD Weakness Expected:
  HSBC sees continued downside pressure on the USD versus JPY, CHF, and EUR, where safe-haven and structural flows are strongest.

• Limited Downside in Other Crosses:
  There may be some consolidation in USD crosses where local fundamentals (e.g., in commodity or EM currencies) cap further downside for now.

Conclusion:

HSBC frames the current dollar slump as more than cyclical weakness—it’s a reputational erosion. Until the U.S. restores policy credibility, USD is likely to remain structurally pressured, particularly versus the core G10 safe-haven and funding currencies.

USD/JPY to the downside remains a favored trade to capitalize on the dollar's demise amid escalating trade tensions and slowing growth. This is particularly evident in the futures market, where long positions on the yen continue to grow. The latest CFTC report shows net yen longs hitting a record high as asset managers further expand their holdings in the Japanese currency. Futures open interest is at its highest point since mid-March.

Options and leveraged accounts display a less bullish stance on the yen, potentially due to spot prices hovering near the 2024 low and the possibility of the Bank of Japan shifting its tightening bias should this week's trade talks fail to yield favorable results. Reports on Monday suggest that the BOJ intends to maintain its tightening bias at next week's policy meeting, potentially shielding the government from criticism by U.S. President Donald Trump about yen weakness. However, this outlook could change if discussions between Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week include revaluing the yen—an unlikely scenario that could prompt the BOJ to lower growth projections. Tokyo CPI and April PMIs will offer a snapshot of the economy this week.

Trend-following momentum continues to favor USD/JPY bears, though the heightened uncertainty brings risks of a sharp reversal above short-term moving averages. Key downside levels to watch are the psychological threshold at 140 and the 2024 low of 139.58; a close below the latter could lead to testing the 200-week moving average at 138.
YEn

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

ANZ highlights that safe-haven flows are increasingly favoring the euro amid U.S. trade policy turmoil, with the options market signaling aggressive upside positioning. The EUR/USD risk reversal curve is at its most bullish in five years, pointing to mounting expectations for further euro appreciation.

Key Points:

• Shift in Global Confidence:
  U.S. trade uncertainty is eroding confidence in the USD, while Europe appears insulated due to the tariff pause and Germany's fiscal shift.

• Safe-Haven Flows into EUR:
  The euro is emerging as a defensive play, especially with investor focus on stability and diversification away from USD risks.

• Options Market Signals:
  The three-month EUR/USD risk reversal (calls vs puts) is at a five-year high, indicating strong demand for near-term euro upside.

• Volatility Term Structure Inversion:
  Short-dated EUR calls are now more expensive than longer-dated ones—showing traders are rushing to buy upside exposure in the near term.

• Policy Already Priced In:
  ANZ’s forecast for 75bp of ECB cuts in 2025 is fully priced, meaning rate policy is unlikely to drive EUR lower in the near term.

• Pullback Risk:
  A modest retracement to 1.12 is possible if U.S.-Europe trade negotiations improve, but momentum remains on the upside.

Conclusion:

The euro’s rally is being fueled not just by fundamentals but by option-driven momentum, with near-term volatility and risk reversals strongly favoring more gains. Unless trade risks dissipate significantly, EUR/USD is poised to remain well bid, with ANZ pointing to continued resilience and upside potential.

(Updates)

• Shares of gold miners rise tracking gains in prices of the bullion [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 2.6% at 3,415.39/ounce, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, while uncertainty over the economic impact of U.S.-China trade tensions spurred demand for safe-haven bullion

• A weaker dollar makes bullion more appealing for other currency holders

• Shares of top miners Newmont and Barrick Gold

up 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African gold miners Gold Fields , Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater

up between 3.1% and 3.6%

• Canadian miners Kinross Gold and Agnico Eagle Mines up 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively

(Reporting by Vallari Srivastava and Katha Kalia in Bengaluru)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley initiates a long EUR/USD trade with a target of 1.20, citing a durable shift in global macro narratives and a breakdown in traditional USD risk behavior. The bank expects USD-negative capital flows to accelerate unless confidence-boosting action is taken by US policymakers.

Key Points:

• New Global Narrative:
  The outlook has shifted away from US exceptionalism. With global investors rotating away from USD, the case for structural EUR strength is building.

• Trade Recommendation:
  Morgan Stanley has entered a long EUR/USD trade, aiming for 1.20 as the next leg higher.

• Flow Dynamics:
  Investor reallocation toward EUR and JPY is gaining momentum, driven by Fed pricing and fading confidence in the US growth/inflation mix.

• USD's Risk Behavior Shift:
  The USD has decoupled from traditional safe-haven behavior, weakening even during risk-off episodes—suggesting further vulnerability if this pattern persists.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley believes EUR/USD upside has more room to run, with broader capital flows and macro realignment supporting the euro. Without a US policy pivot to restore confidence, the dollar's decline could deepen, pushing EUR/USD toward 1.20 in the coming months.

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs notes that foreign flows into US assets are shifting, with European investors leading equity repatriation and foreign demand tilting toward short-duration bonds. While positioning hasn't yet unwound significantly, US policy-induced uncertainty is expected to erode the USD’s structural premium.

Key Points:

1. Equity Flows:

   • European investors are repatriating capital from US equities into European stocks.

   • However, non-European investors are still net buyers of US equities, maintaining some cushion for the USD.

2. Fixed Income Flows:

   • Private investors continue to purchase US Treasuries, but are shifting to shorter durations.

   • Meanwhile, US credit products are seeing net selling.

3. Positioning & Sentiment:

   • Despite shifts, there’s been no material erosion in aggregate foreign positioning in US assets—yet.

   • Goldman’s bearish USD call is based on a structural reallocation of future flows, rather than an abrupt unwind.

Conclusion:

Goldman sees a transition from USD exceptionalism to a more balanced global allocation environment. The Dollar’s premium—sustained for over a decade by superior returns—is fading as uncertainty from tariffs and fiscal policy weighs on investor confidence. This sets the stage for gradual USD depreciation, driven by flow rotation rather than capital flight.

• WH econ advisor Hassett said Friday Trump & his team studying whether Fed's Powell can be fired

• Investors reacted by selling US related assets; US 10-yr yields

rallied & US$ fell sharply

• Gold hit a new all-time high & stocks fell while USD/CNH dropped to 7.2835

• USD/CAD traded 1.3834-1.3781, hit a 6-month low, NY opened near 1.3815, down -0.21%

• Techs are bearish; RSIs falling, pair trades below the 23.6% Fib of the 1.2007-1.4792 rally

• US MArch leading index report, comments from Fed's Goolsbee are risks in NY
usdcad


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• White House econ advisor Hassett said Friday Trump studying if Fed Chair Powell can be fired

• Concern that the Fed's independence is in doubt drove broad base selling of US assets

• Yields rallied while stocks fell & gold

hit a new all-time high

• US$ shunned by investors; USD/CNH fell below 7.2840 before slightly bouncing

• AUD/USD rallied 0.6374-0.6436 overnight, hit a 4-month high, NY opened near 0.6420, up +0.69%

• Techs are bullish; RSIs rising & not overbought, monthly bull hammer candle is in place

• Remarks from Fed's Goolsbee, US March leading index are risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners rise premarket, tracking a rise in prices of the bullion [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 1.7% at $3,385.28/ounce. Bullion rose 2% earlier in the session to a record high of $3,395.95/ounce

• Gold prices rise on a weaker U.S. dollar and worries about a global economic slowdown over rising U.S.-China trade tensions

• Shares of top miners Newmont and Barrick Gold , up 3.2% and 3.9% respectively

• U.S.-listed shares of South African gold miners Gold fields up 3.3%, Harmony Gold up 6% and AngloGold Ashanti up 3.2%

• U.S.-listed shares of Canadian miners Kinross Gold , and Agnico Eagle Mines , up 4.2% and 3.2% respectively
(Reporting by Katha Kalia in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD hits 0.6427 from 0.6377, highest since Dec, last 0.6420

• Threat to Fed independence unleashes next wave of USD selling

• Further AUD/USD gains likely as chart looks more bullish

• 200 DMA resistance at 0.6471 is now a clear target

• Base of Bollinger uptrend channel rises to support 0.6389

• Chinese eateries set to import more Australian beef
AUD:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Sales today took USD/JPY from 142.15 to as low as 140.62 EBS

• De-dollarization and concerns over the fate of FOMC chair Powell foci

• Confidence in USD unlikely to return anytime soon on Trump policies

• USD/JPY lowest since 140.33 on Sept 17, 2024, 139.58 trough Sept 16

• Next key levels to break below Sept 17 low and 140.00

• Possible option barriers at 140.00, large stops below

• 140.00, 139.50-60 breaks project moves towards 137.25 low July 2023

• Fibo 38.2% retracement of 102.59-161.96 Jan '21-July '24 at 139.28

• 50% retracement of above move at 132.27, Fibo 61.8% at 125.26

• Related comment , also ,
USD/JPY hourly:


USD/JPY monthly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CHF off hard in Asia, 0.8170 to 0.8070 EBS on broad USD weakness

• Pair lowest since 0.7360 spike low EBS in January 2015

• De-dollarization continuing, CHF traditional safe-haven

• Resistance on any rebound from 0.8129 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, kijun 0.8149

• Support likely at every big figure from 0.8000

• Massive $950 mln 0.8100 option expiries tomorrow pivot on Europe return?

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/CHF monthly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD surges early Asia, 1.1393 to 1.1486 EBS, best since Feb '22 1.1495

• Market thin in Asia on Australia/NZ, Europe Easter Monday holidays today

• Break above bullish, projects tests towards 1.1616 high in Nov '21

• Monthly chart shows underlying support now at flat 100-MMA at 1.1201

• Support today from hourly Ichimoku tenkan at 1.1438, kijun 1.1422 below

• Massive E1bln 1.1450, E1.2bln 1.1390-1.1400 option expiries tom supportive?

• Focus turning away from US tariffs for now pending fresh negotiations

• More focus on de-dollarization as investors continue to shun US assets

• Separately, EUR/JPY 161.88-162.18 EBS in Asia, on quiet side

• Cross sideways well within recent ranges with JPY bid as much as EUR

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD firms up to 0.6392 while Australia closed Mon

• Hits an intraday peak of 0.6400, flashing bullish sign

• Mon close above 0.6386 reaffirms Bollinger uptrend channel

• China stocks rally 0.5%, in faint hopes for US-China talks

• Trump signals end of tit-for-tat China tariffs

• China says won't make any deal at its expense
AUD:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY from 142.15 early Asia to 141.22 EBS in holiday-thinned trading

• Australia/New Zealand, Europe closed for Easter Monday

• Confidence in USD continuing on Trump moves to replace FOMC Chair Powell

• De-dollarization proceeding apace too with investors shunning US assets

• USD/JPY lowest since 140.45 Sept 18 '24, 140.33 Sept 17, 139.58 Sept 16

• Some support eyed @141.00 but specs eyeing tests towards Sept 16 trough

• Few option expiries today, of note only 142.80-90 $330 mln

• Few tomorrow too with only $550 mln between 140.55-60 strikes in area

• Interest rate differentials not a factor now given current uncertainties

• Bias to remain down for USD/JPY with many now eyeing moves to the 130s

• Related comments , , also ,

• On Fed/Fed-speak , , ,

• Japan on FX , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD creeps up to 0.6389 early Mon vs close 0.6377

• Edging back into Bollinger uptrend channel at 0.6386

• Mon close above will place it on track toward 200 DMA 0.6470

• USD softening a touch again, amid Easter long weekend

• Australia financial markets closed Easter Monday

• HK closed; China to hold key lending rates steady
AUD:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)