Goldman Sachs sees good value in CHF funding on a three-month basis

"USD/CHF offers exceptional levels of carry for a pair that has acted as a clear risk-hedge in this environment, which we think places it as an attractive portfolio hedge in an environment where energy shock risks are still simmering. At the same time, CHF's gold connection is also the clearest risk to the case for funding in our view," GS notesa.

"We continue to see a pivot back to a neutral CHF intervention bias by the SNB as another potential route to Franc outperformance, though after the SNB's weak tweak in June, this process appears to us to be a more gradual one. We see good value in CHF funding on a three-month basis where these key risks appear more remote, offering greater carry in G10 crosses than the more typical choice of the Yen," GS adds.

Sterling's near-term prospects look relatively upbeat as the pound consolidates recent gains, near 1.3450, as Andy Burnham became Britain's seventh prime minister in a decade with a pledge to change politics.

The currency was trading just below mid-July highs at 1.3556 and well above late-June lows in the mid-1.31s, suggesting stability near trend highs. With summer liquidity issues prevailing, sterling is likely to hover around its flattening daily cloud near 1.3420.

As the market assesses Burnham's initial moves as head of government, GBP traders and the broader FX market will stay focused on the fluid Middle East situation and its effects on oil, macro themes, and downstream UK inflation, growth and fiscal dynamics.

Fiscal concerns will also remain a focal point. While Burnham has said he will honor fiscal rules, he has set ambitious goals to tackle homelessness, while also building more public housing to help bring down welfare spending, which would help fund higher defense investment. For now, UK macro traders appear willing to give Burnham a chance. But if geopolitical ructions lift oil toward late-March highs above $100/bbl, the new prime minister may face difficult spending decisions, which will spotlight gilt yields as a fiscal sustainability barometer.

Technically, a dip below the flat 200-DMA at 1.34 would put the July 8 low at 1.3323 in sharper focus; a rise in UK 10-yr gilts above 5.2% could lead bears to target the mid-1.31s.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses Gold and DXY technical and seasonality outlook and flags a scope further USD gains supported by Gold's death cross signal.

"On June 26, 2026, at $4,088.74, gold triggered a “death cross” signal. This is when the 50d SMA crosses below the 200d SMA to imply a downtrend is underway. • After 30 signals since 1975, gold was lower 67-70% of the time 40-50 trading days later with negative average and median returns. This suggests gold may be lower than $4,088.74 around August 24-September 8," BofA notes.

"Gold’s death cross signal implies support and strength for the DXY in the Aug 3-Oct 21 period, with a little more emphasis on late August through September," BofA adds.

• EUR/GBP anchored below 0.8500 as rebound attempts continue to fade on approach to topside resistance

• Recent GBP outperformance leaves scope for upside extension more constrained in the near term

• Positive UK narrative largely in the price - incremental political impulse now diminishing

• Rates market remains skewed hawkish BoE with ~40bps priced by year-end

• Raises the bar for incoming data to validate further GBP strength (labour market, CPI due Tue/Wed)

• Initial resistance: 0.8520–22 (200H MAs), break would likely encourage dip buyers

• Support: 0.8455 (15 Jul low), then 0.8400
EURGBP hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Morgan Stanley Research adopts a neutral to slightly bullish bias on EUR in the near-term.

"We see modest near-term idiosyncratic upside risks to the EUR, as our economists see the ECB tone as likely to keep  a September hike on the table. They note risks that core inflation moves up in 3Q26, as the ECB expects. A relatively  hawkish tone from President Lagarde this week would likely solidify hiking expectations, potentially leading investors  to seek alternative funders for long EM carry trades," MS notes.

"One potential near-term catalyst is the July 24th expiry of across the-board US tariffs. The absence of any announcement of 232 or 301 replacements (as expected) may boost EUR, as  data from Yale Budget Lab suggest that the effective tariff rate on Germany may fall over 3 percentage points in the  absence of the section 122 surcharge, more than a number of other developed economies," MS adds.

• AUD/USD fell below the 10-DMA, hit a 4-session low of 0.6960

• Buyers then emerged, the pair rallied above the 10-DMA, turned positive

• Rallies in gold, silver, copper & equities helped the pair make gains

• Pair got an added boost as USD, USD/CNH, oil fell on possible US-Iran negotiation

• Friday's high broke, Thursday's high was neared, 0.7008 traded into NY's open

• AUD/USD traded up +0.37% in early action which helped techs lean bullish

• RSIs are rising & AUD/USD moved back above the trend line off the May 13 high

• The 0.7020/25 area is key short-term resistance bulls need to overcome
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD-0.05%, USD/JPY 0.04%, GBP/USD 0.06%, AUD/USD 0.24%

• S&P E-minis 0.26% , DAX 0.29% , Nikkei -4.3% , FTSE-100 -0.4%

• GBP/USD range bound below 1.35 with event risk in focus

• A bullish AUD/USD skew hinges on a key Fibo breakout

• EUR/USD traders unconvinced by the bounce

• USD/JPY-Tight ranges persist as grind higher stalls ahead of cycle high

• FX option expiries U.S. Open (Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own) ))

• USD/JPY muted, holding within a tight 162.31-162.60 band

• Spot easing off intraday highs alongside softer oil in London trade

• Iran signals potential willingness to pursue negotiations with the U.S.

• Macro backdrop still USD/JPY supportive - subdued FX vol underpinning carry demand

• But upside still constrained by persistent intervention risk, particularly ahead of 162.84

• Resistance: 162.84 through to 163, support at 162.00-05 (21-day MA), 160.70
USDJPY daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(Repeat changes tense for the week ahead ) Billions of euros in FX option strikes around the low 1.14s have helped cap and underpin EUR/USD in recent weeks — a reminder that, while not an exact science, large impending option expiries can influence the spot market as they approach. EUR/USD has edged up a touch since Tuesday's softer-than-expected U.S. CPI data, but it remains well entrenched within a long-standing 1.1400-1.1500 range, with plenty more option strike expiries within those parameters likely to keep shaping price action this week.

Traders using FX options to trade volatility are also heavily involved in the cash market, and as an option expiry approaches — 10 a.m. New York (1400 GMT) for G10 currency pairs — hedging flows will typically increase as the cash-versus-option relationship becomes more crucial to profit and loss. If an option is likely to be exercised, the opposing party may need to buy or sell more of the underlying currency to meet their obligation. These flows can often drive spot towards the nearest and largest strikes, adding to any nearby support or resistance and helping to contain price action until those strikes expire.

Monday, July 20, sees the largest strike expiries with almost 10 billion euros in a 1.1385-1.1510 range

Tuesday, July 21 brings 1.1400 expiries worth 2.3 billion euros, alongside 1.1445-50 (1.6 billion), 1.1470-85 (4.3 billion) and 1.1500 (2 billion). Wednesday, July 22 has 1.1400 expiries on 3.3 billion euros and 1.1490-1.1500 on 1.2 billion, while Thursday, July 23 sees 1.1400-10 (1.1 billion), 1.1450-65 (3.2 billion) and 1.1500-10 (2 billion). The lack of spot volatility within a familiar range is also weighing on FX option premiums - with EUR/USD implied volatility languishing close to multi-year lows.

Related comment - FX clues from the options market
EUR/USD OTC FX option strikes expiring July 17-2


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD reached 2026 low at 1.1325 in June

• Pair then bounced to reach 1.1472 on July 2

• Traders continued to pare longs

• Net short ($2.3 billion) emerged on July 7

• Net short was trimmed to $1.8bln week Jul-7-14

• EUR/USD 1.1482 Jul 15, dropped to trade 1.1424-45 Jul 20

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Aurelia Metals up 5.7% at A$0.285, on track for their strongest session since June 15, if trend holds

• Mining and exploration co posts FY26 gold production of 50.4 koz, above top end of forecast range of 45-50 koz

• About 6.5 million shares trade hands, 1.8x 30-day average

• YTD, stock up 13%, including session's moves

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's Rumble Resources rise as much as 4.4% to A$0.047, its highest level since July 7

• Precious metals explorer says drilling at its Munarra Gully project in Western Australia (WA) intercepted high-grade gold and copper

• Co adds, planning underway for a targeted drilling campaign

• Stock down 12% YTD, including session moves

(Reporting by Shravya Marakini in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD up 0.15% in Asia after trading in a 0.6960-0.6995 range

• Opened 0.6976 from Fri 0.6981 close, dipped to day low on Iran escalation

• U.S. strikes Iran for 9th day; allies in region report fresh attacks

• Dip-buyers emerge as 0.6960-65 support holds, rally back to day high ensues

• Failure at 38.2% Fibo of May-June drop at 0.7023 last Wed continues to weigh

• AUD/NZD risks further drop as key data loom; NZ Q2 CPI Tue, AU June jobs Thu

• Support 0.6960-65, 0.6935-40, resistance 0.6995-0.7000, 0.7020-25
AUD:


AUDNZD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD cautiously higher, last 1.3451, as USD abates broadly

• Tentatively finds a bottom around 1.3445, a key technical floor

• Bollinger uptrend channel base and Ichimoku cloud merge to support

• If they crack, next ledge at 100 and 200 DMA near 1.3400 to be tested

• Burnham set to take over as PM; finance minister eyed

• Choice for crucial role may dictate steling's next big move
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.4% to hit their lowest since June 11

• Sub-index on track for a fourth straight session of losses

• Bullion prices posted their biggest weekly loss in six on Friday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions fuelled inflation fears and reinforced expectation for U.S. interest rate hikes [GOL/]

• Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources

drop 2.3% and 0.9%, respectively

• Sub-index down 24.1% YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• EUR/USD glides lower to 1.1425 from 1.1433, nearing chart pivot

• 21 DMA at 1.1414 about to be tested, as UST yields set to rise

• Could break lower and into Bollinger downtrend channel 1.1385

• Mon close below that will engage bearish technical momentum

• Oil prices spiking again as US-Iran conflict escalates

• US launches ninth consecutive night of attacks on Iran
EUR


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up 0.1% in Asia as U.S.-Iran conflict escalates

• U.S. renews Iran strikes; allies in the region report more Iranian attacks

• U.S. crude futures up 3% to a more-than-one month high, undermine JPY

• Traders remain on intervention alert with Japanese markets closed Monday

• Tokyo may exploit thinner liquidity to bolster the yen

• Japan to leave monetary policy tools to BOJ in economic blueprint-document

• Resistance 162.75-85, 163.00, support 162.00-10, 161.50-60

• Friday range 162.13-162.52, Asia 162.41-162.59
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.2% in early Asia as US renews strikes on Iran

• U.S. allies in the region report more Iranian attacks on Sunday

• Risk aversion undermines AUD; Wall Street declines Fri as chips sell off

• U.S. crude futures rally to a more-than-one month high, sap risk appetite

• Failure at 38.2% Fibo of May-June drop at 0.7023 last Wed continues to weigh

• Support 0.6960-65, 0.6935-40, resistance 0.6990-0.7000, 0.7020-25

• Friday range 0.6966-0.7000, 0.6965-0.69765
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ a tad soft in NY afternoon trade, -0.2% at 1.3452, NorAm range 1.3459-1.3429

• Early sterling slide on ramped up Mideast tensions subsides, mkts remain anxious

• Daily cloud top hold supportive, upcoming cloud twist near 1.3420 may be magnetic

• Oil, barometer for geopol uncertainty up better-than 4% on Friday; AI/Tech hit as well

• Sterling bid on Labour regime change transitory, as Mideast angst lifts fiscal concerns

• UK employment/earnings data on Jul 21, CPI/PPI on Jul 22 in focus for policy view

• GBP$ res 1.3481 Friday high, 1.3523 bruised upper 30-d Bolli, 1.3556 trend high Jul 13

• Supt 1.3437 bruised daily cloud top, 1.3427 Friday low, 1.3399 flat 200-DMA

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects typo in line 4)

• NY opened near 1.1430 after 1.1452 traded overnight, the pair slid early

• USD rally, oil & USD/CNH gains pushed EUR/USD down to 1.1425

• The pair lifted when USD buying abated, stocks lifts & gold, silver rallied

• 1.1445 traded but the pair neared 1.1435 late as US yields

firmed up

• EUR/USD was down -0.08% in NY's afternoon but remained above the 10- & 21-DMAs

• Pair's hold below trend line off May 11 high, falling daily RSI are concerns for bulls
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6970 after AUD/UD traded 0.7001-0.6966 overnight

• Firm USD, drops in gold, silver, equities sent the pair lower early

• Buyers emerged however as gold, silver turned positive, stocks moved upward

• USD/CNH's drop from its 6.7816 high added buoyancy to the pair

• 0.6990 neared in NY's afternoon, AUD/USD was down only -0.19% late in the day

• AUD/USD's hold above 10- & 21-DMA & rising monthly RSI are encouraging for bulls
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research summarizes its Fed and ECB policy trajectory for the rest of the year.

"We expect the Fed to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% for the rest of 2026," GS notes.

"We expect the ECB to deliver one more 25bp hike in September to a peak policy rate of 2.5% before cutting back to 2% in 2027, though we see a low hurdle for a September hold if Euro area data comes in weaker than expected," GS adds.

• Cable remains on a 1.34 handle after Burnham becomes Labour leader

• Burnham will replace Starmer as Britain's prime minister on Monday

• GBP/USD range since the London open is 1.3427-1.3481 (high before low)

• 1.3427 is also the low since Wednesday's nine-week high of 1.3556

• CFTC data at 1930 GMT to show if net GBP short fell further from June's 9-year high

• UK June inflation data due next week; CPI forecast at 2.7% YY (Reuters poll)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research on why they expect 75bp of Fed hikes this year despite client pushback.

"We've gotten a good deal of client pushback on our call for 75bp of Fed hikes this year, starting in September. In this piece we lay out some of the arguments we have heard, and explain why we disagree. These arguments can be broken out into three categories: i) "The Fed shouldn't hike," ii) "The Fed should hike but it won't", and iii) "The Fed might hike but 75bp is too much"," BofA notes.

"Some clients think the Fed shouldn't hike because inflation is being driven by one-offs. Per our math, however, underlying inflation is well above target. Some have argued that Warsh will use the task forces as an excuse to not hike. We think he has strategic reasons to hike soon: he'd gain credibility without having to own the inflation problem. Is 75bp too much? Markets are already pricing nearly 50bp of hikes so it would take at least 75bp to deliver meaningful financial tightening," BofA adds.