eFXplus DATA

• Market attempting to extend Friday's rebound away from the daily cloud
• Resistance at 30DMA just stalling gains at 1.2942
• Our 1.2890 offer met on-route to 1.2940 high
• High risk trade as price threatens more of a retrace of 1.3218-1.2773 drop
• Bearish potential to the 1.2770 Feb 25 cloud twist
• Our target the low 1.27s and stop above the 200DMA, 1.3010

• EUR/USD 1.1234 last week 1.1325 today, expected range 1.12-16 may ease
• Daily Ichimoku cloud twists at 1.1410-16 at end February
• Cloud twists attract and with traders short a likely target of the recovery
• Interest rates/inflation expectations strongly favour downside nL1N20A07F
• ECB dovish. Fresh TLTRO's likely nL5N20A4R8 nL5N20C0JF nL5N20A5OU
• 200-DMA falling. May influence a lower peak for ranges near/below 1.15

• GBP/USD up 0.2% in Asia on general USD weakness as risk bounces
• GBP/USD traded an Asian range of 1.2900/40, tested the high in early trading
• Early spike higher to 1.2940 seen on stops above 10 DMA at 1.2898
• S/t MAs still heading lower in negative setup, but 5 DMA turning
• Resistance seen at 38.2 Fibo at 1.2943, 21 DMA at 1.2987
• Initial support at 5 DMA at 1.2869, close above 21 DMA bullish

• AUD/USD up 0.2%, trades a range of 0.7132/59 in Asia
• AUD/USD boosted by positive trade talks, stronger AXJ currencies
• Resistance seen at 0.7160/75, the 100 DMA and 50% retracement of recent fall
• Support now at 5, 10 DMAs at 0.7115/17, 5 DMA turning higher - positive sign
• US-China trade talks move to the US, but market remains hopeful on outcome
• Stocks higher with risk, MSCI AXJ +1.15, Nikkei +1.8%

• EUR/USD up 0.2% in Asia, as buoyant risk pushes USD lower across the board
• EUR/USD trades a range of 1.1279/1.1325 for the session, last at 1.1319
• Repeated holds of the range base around 1.1200 have worn down EUR bears
• First resistance is seen at the 38.2 Fibo of recent decline at 1.1341
• Momentum studies and 5 DMA turn higher, supporting the current bounce
• Stocks in Asia higher on optimism over US-China trade talks, boosting risk

• Early spike up to 1.2940 proved short lived and has settled around 1.2910
• Looked like a few stops tripped above the 1.2897 10 DMA - capped last week
• UK Guardian- more than 50 chemical co's moved from UK on Brexit nL3N20C0YI
• Resilient UK jobs market - pay to rise most since 2012 - CIPD - nL5N20A5IJ
• Neutral momentum studies, 5 DMA bases, 10, 21 & 200 DMAs fall - net negative
• A close above last week's 1.2959 high would suggest further consolidation

• AUD/USD trading with bid tone in a quiet Asian session
• Hopes of resolution resulting from US/China trade talks support for now
• Resistance at 21-day MA at 0.7151 and 100-day MA at 0.7160
• A break above 0.7160 targets 61.8 of 0.7295/0.7054 move at 0.7203
• Support at 10-day MA at 0.7116 and break eases upward pressure

• Little changed in a 1.1279/98 range early - no game changing weekend news
• US/China trade talks show optimism from both sides nL1N20B0AP nL3N20B019
• 745M of 1.1290/1.1310 strikes a magnet in Asia unless there is news
• Long legged Doji reversal Friday would be confirmed by a close above 1.1306
• Momentum studies conflict, 5 DMA bases, 10 & 21 DMAs head south
• Net negative setup - sustained 1.1317 break would suggest consolidation

• Italy's Borghi: Italy may have to leave EU if EU elections bring no change
• EUR/USD sinks as political concerns grow ahead of EU elections in May
• ECB's Coeure: slowdown stronger & broader than expected, inflation shallower
• EUR/USD hits new low nL1N20A0JQ but Coeure TLTRO comment tempers bears
• EU bank stocks lift on TLTRO tip while US Jan IP downside miss weakens US$
• EUR/USD bounces above 1.1295 late but downside risks remain nL1N20A0SE

AUD/USD can keep rolling back losses suffered in its slide from the Jan.
31 peak as long as the U.S. and China keep talking about trade.
Completion of the latest U.S.-Sino trade talks and news that they would resume in Washington D.C. next week highlighted an alignment of bullish factors favoring further recovery in AUD/USD.
President Trump said he would meet President Xi sometime after the talks. Yuan gains in the face of optimism that the two sides could avoid additional tariffs underpinned the aussie, while the emergence of weak U.S. data has left the U.S. dollar looking suddenly less desirable.
A big downside surprise to January industrial production and downward revision to December's result bolsters views that Fed hikes are off the table for 2019 and that the Fed's balance sheet reduction could cease earlier than expected.
Upbeat risk sentiment in reaction to the U.S.-China talks is adding fuel to AUD/USD gains as equities, oil and copper rally while iron-ore prices hold near recent highs.
Daily technicals highlight the bullish risks.
AUD/USD has pierced the 10-DMA, RSI deepens its bull bias and a bull hammer candle forms on daily charts.
A break of 0.7135/40 resistance and converging 21- and 55-DMAs should accelerate the rally.
Resistance near 0.7235/45 is then targeted.

TD Research discusses EUR/USD tactical outlook and adopts a neutral sidelined bias, while sees a scope for a better setup in considering short EUR/AUD exposure over the coming week.

"For the EUR, the single most important factor over the next few months is a turn in the macro data. Our HFFV, which incorporates some of these and other factors, point to EURUSD at 1.137. That is a 1-sigma discount that could cheapen a bit more before some of the sticky investors (like central banks) offer a floor," TD notes. 

"Still, at these levels, we don't see a compelling case to chase it lower (unless we get auto tariffs, a big if) and yet don't see a strong case to buy it either. It is a better cross trade. The break of the 200dma (and our tactical, upbeat stance on AUD) imply a nice setup lower in EURAUD over the coming week," TD adds. 

EUR/USD is running out of hope to avoid dropping to the lower end of its 1.1200-1.1600 range as the ECB nL1N20A0JQ and signs of economic weakness pile pressure on the euro.
Highlighting the increasing concerns of slower euro zone economic growth, data showed new car registrations in Europe fell for the fifth consecutive month [ Click here

], and Fitch ratings cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 1.0 percent nFWN20A0R0.
ECB board member Benoit Coeure added to the downbeat sentiment by saying the economic slowdown is stronger and broader that what was expected and that inflation's path will be shallower.
EUR/USD sank to a new low but stalled short of November's 1.1216 low.
EUR/USD longs did get some relief though.
Coeure said there might be scope for another growth-supporting TLTRO and U.S. January industrial production came in well below forecasts.
EUR/USD bounced, but the rebound has been meager.
Traders are reluctant to rally EUR/USD as the U.S. Commerce Department's report on auto imports is due soon nL1N2060NI, which could result in tariffs on imports of European autos into the U.S. Technicals highlight bear risks as RSIs are biased down and consolidation of long-term losses persists.
A break below 1.1200 should see 1.0850/1.0950 support targeted.

NAB discusses NZD/USD technical outlook and flags the importance of a weekly close above 0.6836 to lend the pair some support in the near-term.

"Weekly close above the 50 week MA at 0.6836 will imply that the corrective decline is complete," NAB notes. 

"The MT uptrend structure remains in play however,  along with a positive LT momentum bias. This conflict lends itself to a range trading environment in the coming weeks.

We anticipate that MT trend support will hold  any dips around 0.6645/55, while recent highs towards 0.6950 will continue to cap the range," NAB adds.  

MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and adopts a tactical bearish bias in the near-term.

"The euro is currently trading on the defensive against the US dollar after failing last month to break above the top of its recent 1.1200 to 1.1500 range. A potential test of the bottom of the range at 1.1200 appears more likely in the week ahead.

The weak euro-zone data flow is weighing more heavily on the euro in the near-term. The release of the PMI surveys for February in the week ahead will be watched closely to assess growth momentum at the start of this year... The release of the latest ECB minutes may also attract more attention to assess any potential policy tweaks in response to weak growth," MUFG notes. 

"In contrast, the US dollar’s relative appeal is being boosted by weakness overseas...The release of the latest FOMC minutes could provide further insights into the likely length of the rate hike pause, and/or plans for a larger balance sheet," MUFG adds. 

Inflation expectations suggest an already-wide gap in interest rates that's weighing on EUR/USD will widen further, so it's worth betting the pair falls further this year.
The rate gap is big.
An investor short EUR/USD will earn over 3 percent each year, and the probability that will grow is high.
Not only are inflation expectations for the euro zone plummeting, those in the United states have started to move higher.
Earlier fears of a slowdown had hit expectations for both U.S, and eurozone inflation, but this fresh divergence should have an impact on EUR/USD.
The number of traders short EUR/USD should slow a coming decline, but the resilience of risk appetite that's supported stocks this year will weigh on the euro, which is the most liquid funding currency, and will support the dollar, which is the highest-yielding major currency.
Abundant liquidity makes this a safe bet, too, which should make it very popular -- intensifying the pressure on EUR/USD.

• GBP/USD broke and closed below the 1.2814 Fibo, increasing the downside risk
• 1.2814 Fibo is a 50 percent retrace of the 1.2409 to 1.3218 January rise
• Scope for losses through 1.2718 Fibo (61.8%) to 30-day lower BB at 1.2688
• We have lowered our offer to 1.2890 ahead of the 10-DMA at 1.2900
• EUR/GBP rose by 63 pips on Thurs, the joint biggest one-day gain of 2019
• Cross closed above 0.8803 -- 38.2% of 0.9102 to 0.8618 (Jan) fall = bullish

Japan's investors recently went crazy for foreign bonds, but investors can bet on a handsome return just by buying cash and sitting on their hands nL1N20A062.
Obviously, FX risk remains but when USD/JPY makes big moves down, as it did in January, it's worth betting the risk of yen rise is already priced in.
Over the course of a year, anyone sitting long of USD/JPY will make 3 percent, and while it can move rapidly, it rarely does.
USD/JPY usually has about one or two big moves a year.
The early-year aberration took benchmark vol into double figures, but it has subsequently halved that move -- options say USD/JPY is going nowhere fast.
Buying further dips to bank the carry seems prudent.
Ranges were 110-115 and have now dropped with strong resistance ahead of 112.
The daily Ichimoku cloud 108.35-109.58 should support and provide buyers with attractive levels for entry.

• Mkt recovers to trade back above the 30-day lower bolli-band now at 1.1255
• Scope grows for a bullish resumption to the 30-DMA which is now at 1.1394
• Initial targets at 1.1324/1.1371 Fibos need to be overcome
• 1.1324/1.1371 Fibos are 23.6%/38.2% of 1.1570 to 1.1248 (Jan to Feb) fall
• We are long at 1.1310 for 1.1410, while our stop is at 1.1245
• Gearing up for gains through key Fibos to 30-DMA nL1N20905X, nL1N20909X

• AUD/USD drifts lower Friday with mild risk aversion as stocks ease
• AUD/USD range for Asia 0.7080/0.7107, last at 0.7090
• Hang Seng and Kospi lead stock losses down 1.6%, S&P e-mini -0.4%
• Initial support at Thurs low of 0.7072, then Mon/Tues lows at 0.7054/57
• Initial resistance 10 DMA at 0.7120, then 21, 55 & 100 DMAs 0.7150/60
• Next move driven by comments from US-China trade talks concluding today

TD Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and highlights the importance of closing above the 1.1345 level to regain some support in the near-term.

"The majors sit mostly in a holding pattern, as the recent sessions showed the market confirming the lower end of the ranges.

We remain headline watchers, especially in regards to a possible US/China trade truce and European politics. The Brexit clock is ticking and EURUSD needs a close above 1.1345 to reinforce support," TD notes.