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May 23 - 01:24 PM
EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY: Shorts Look Attractive On Negative EZ Data & Risk Sentiment - Credit Agricole
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 10:00 AM

Credit Agricole Research discusses the EUR outlook in light of the today's soft EZ PMIs.

One of the main reasons for the sharp deterioration in EUR sentiment in recent months was the significant slowdown of the Eurozone economy in Q118. The weak economic data dashed hopes for pacier ECB policy normalisation despite the fact that various Governing Council members seem to think that the slowdown is only temporary. More recently, concerns about Italy and possible contagion to other Eurozone members added to the recent EUR gloom.

We further suspect that negative data surprises out of the Eurozone may also undermine the broader market risk sentiment. This is why EUR-shorts vs safe havens like CHF and JPY may be preferable under this scenario," CACIB argues. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
May 23 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Jittery Markets Show Little Love To EUR/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 10:20 AM

EUR/USD struck a six-month low and faces further losses as Italian politics dogs the single currency and eurozone's slowing economic growth is unlikely to inspire ECB policy normalization.
Lingering Italian government concerns drove BTP yields higher, widening Italian-German spreads and, in turn, German-U.S.
rate differentials, weighing on the euro.
Risk aversion emanating from emerging market currencies, below-forecast euro zone PMIs and falling commodities, have pushed EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY lower.
Technicals bolster traders' reluctance to get long.
The pair has pierced the key 38.2 Fib of 1.0340-1.2556 and support in the 1.1700/20 zone which includes the December 2017 low, August 2015 high and large 1.1700 barrier protection.
RSI studies remain biased down with no divergence and continue provide a tailwind for EUR/USD bears.
Net-long EUR positions are still being reduced and should limit any bounces for EUR/USD.
Rally selling will continue to dominate EUR/USD and a test of December's 1.1553 low is likely.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 11:00 AM
EUR/USD: The Sucker Punch After Jan's Head-Fake: Key Levels To Watch - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 09:17 AM

Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and highlights the key levels to the downside.

"A re-test of the EUR/USD 1.1720 level this morning saw rapid capitulation. The market is still long Euros even if the aggregate short dollar position has been cut.

Italy's political impasse continues, French and German PMIs were soft and global risk sentiment has taken another knock. November's 1.1550 low and the 50% retracement of the up-move at 1.1450 are the next hurdles and represent the sucker punch that has followed January's head-fake.

The Euro needs better data, Italian political resolution (without an on-going threat of leaving the Eurozone) and better positioning. The last of these will be solved imminently but the other two are going to take time and the market isn't waiting," SocGen argues. 


Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
May 23 - 09:48 AM
GBP/USD: UK Politics Back In Driver Seat N-Term - BTMU
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 08:34 AM

BTMU Research discusses GBP outlook and notes that the real driver of the pound over the short-term is now more related to politics than the economy.

"The political climate surrounding Brexit has taken a notable turn for the worse following a podcast for Conservative Home by lead Hard Brexiter Jacob ReesMogg who accused the government of “abject weakness” over plans agreed on a backstop Customs Union deal," BTMU adds. 

"However, while this will reinforce the recent speculation of a snap election, we remain unconvinced. Will this faction really risk bringing the government down?

It will be difficult for the pound to advance until this political uncertainty recedes somewhat," BTMU argues. 

BTMU Research/Market Commentary
May 23 - 08:36 AM
EUR/USD - Hit By Risk Aversion And Weaker Than F/c Data
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 06:15 AM
  • EUR/USD trades 1.1698 as risk-off conditions fuel long liquidation
  • Break 1.1710 38.2% rise from Jan 17 unveils 50% of same move @ 1.1448
  • Euro will eventually garner support if risk aversion holds
  • Support likely @ weekly cloud top @ 1.1682, 30-day daily Bollinger 1.1614
  • Softer than expected German and EZ PMIs add to the risk-off feel
  • German May composite PMI 53.1 vs 54.7 f/c, EZ 54.1 vs 55.0 f/c

EUR/USD weekly Click here

EUR/USD weekly fib retracements Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - Risk Aversion Triggers EUR/USD Break Targeting 1.1448
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 04:00 AM
  • EUR/USD trades 1.1701 as growing risk aversion adds to long liquidation
  • Unwinding of larger risk usually seen at outset of risk-off markets
  • EUR/USD longs remain the biggest spec FX bets IMM/FX
  • Move under 1.1710, 38.2% rise since Jan 2017, unveils 50% @ 1.1448
  • Weekly Ichi cloud 1.1682-1.1216. Thicker clouds offer stronger support
  • 200/100-WMAs 1.1442/08 also close to next big fib target @ 1.1448

EUR/USD weekly fib retracements Click here

EUR/USD weekly Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD - Resumes Its Fall Following 10DMA Rejection
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 04:00 AM
  • Tues hanging man/evening star doji warned of a soft Wed open
  • Failure at the 10DMA opened up a new trend low at 1.3372 early Wed
  • 14-day momentum increasingly bearish and stochs below 20.00
  • A drop to the December 15 1.3300 low on the cards
  • Still looking for corrective action to sell into
  • 10DMA a fade level, currently 1.3485: Bear bets off above 1.3565 200DMA

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 05:00 AM
USD/JPY - Collapse To Continue If Bears Can Overcome 200-DMA
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 03:00 AM
  • USD/JPY turns bearish but needs to overcome key downside levels
  • Bears eye the 200-DMA at 110.20, close below will unmask the 109.78 Fibo
  • 109.78 Fibo -- 23.6% retrace of the 104.56 to 111.39 rise
  • Below 109.78 will pave the way for a test of the rising 30-DMA now at 109.15
  • We have lowered our offer to 110.85, is well ahead of Tuesday's 111.18 peak
  • Only a break above Monday's 111.39 high will alleviate bulls plight

USD/JPY Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 03:48 AM
EUR/JPY Steadies Alongside USD/JPY Near Session Lows
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 01:35 AM
  • EUR/JPY from 130.65 to 129.70 in Asia, on back-foot once again.
  • On way for re-test of recent trend lows? Good support from 129.00 area.
  • 128.96 trend low on March 23 - multiple lows since just ahead.
  • Italy and low EZ sans-Italy yields weigh but enough to push cross lower?
  • Tech support at descending 200-WMA at 129.18, ascending 55-WMA 130.94.
  • Bias to remain down for now on pervasive Tokyo risk-off sentiment.

EUR/JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 02:36 AM
NZD/USD - Leads JPY Crosses Lower, As Risk Retreats In Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 12:45 AM
  • -0.5% in Asia - leading risk/JPY crosses lower - NZD/JPY trades -0.9%
  • Soft markets, E-mini S&P -0.2%, 10yr UST yields -1bp to 3.052%, Nikkei -1.2%
  • Provocative headlines on theoretical RBNZ report weighed nL3N1SU1LI
  • Momentum studies base, 5, 10 & 20 daily & weekly MAs trend south
  • Neutral setup - 0.6970 20 DMA capped in London - close above ends trend
  • Busy NZD session Click here

    - Asian 0.6893/0.6945 range sup/res

nzd3 may 23 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 01:24 AM
EUR/USD: Could Stay Offered N-Term As Long As Italian Situation Remains Unsolved - Barclays
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 11:50 PM

Barclays Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of the latest Italian political developments.

"The Italian political situation and its effect on BTPs and other EA peripheral bond markets will likely be the single most important driver for the EUR this week. 

While our rates strategists do not see the recent BTP weakness as the beginning of a structural widening trend, we think near-term uncertainty will continue to pressure the EUR and increase the risk that the positive tone held by rating agencies on Italy reverse.

Hence, contrary to our earlier expectations of near-term EURUSD consolidation given the rapidity of the recent USD move, we expect the EUR to remain under pressure as long as the Italian political situation remains unresolved," Barclays argues 

Barclays Research/Market Commentary
May 23 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Holds First Support, Bullish Bias Intact For Now
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 10:25 PM
  • AUD/USD tests support at 0.7545/50 as JPY crosses sell off
  • Equity markets across Asia down, denting risk, Nikkei down 1.1%
  • Positive signals still in place, bulls need a close above 10 DMA at 0.7533
  • Resistance remains at Tues high and 50% retracement at 0.7605/13
  • Break of 0.7545 would target a return to Mon low at 0.7503
  • China state media suggests cutting billions of dollars in Australian imports

AUD daily: Click here

Link to Business Insider article on China trade threat Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 22 - 11:00 PM
AUD/JPY - NZD/JPY Off Alongside AUD/JPY, Investor Interest Lacking
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 09:00 PM
  • NZD/JPY down, what goes up must come down without investor backing.
  • Japanese still tepid on both NZD, AUD, up recently solely on risk sentiment.
  • NZD/JPY off from 77.49 spike high yesterday, Asia so far today 76.82-96.
  • More downside possible, depends on performance of Antipodean cousin.
  • Good resistance confirmed ahead of weekly Ichi tenkan at 77.60.
  • Some support @76.92 55-HMA, base of hourly Ichi cloud 76.66, 100-HMA 76.65.

NZD/JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 22 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - Treads Water, But Setup Remains Bearish
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 07:40 PM
  • Flat into Tokyo open after closing little changed - likely tight Asian range
  • Hammond rebuffs employers' call for customs union after Brexit nL5N1ST68Z
  • Momentum studies flat line, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs edge lower - negative setup
  • Sustained 1.6452/62 break, 38.2% of 2017/18 rise & May low weighs
  • Targets 1.3300, Dec range low - close above 1.3490 10 DMA would undermine
  • NY 1.3414 low & London 1.3492 high initial support/resistance

gbp may 23 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 22 - 08:36 PM
USD/JPY - Soft Ahead Of Tokyo Open - 111.00 Strikes Cap
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 06:40 PM
  • -0.1% into Tokyo open after closing -0.1%, as uptrend pauses for breath
  • Nikkei mfg PMI is only data - last 53.8 - NKc1 Nikkei futures -0.1%
  • Kijun line, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs track north strong trending setup remains
  • Close below 110.20 200 DMA needed to undermine topside bias
  • 111.00 1.4BLN in strikes, then London 111.18 top resistance
  • Friday's 110.61 low then 110.34 10 DMA initial support

jpy may 23 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 22 - 05:00 PM
AUD/USD: On The Upswing; Where To Target? - CIBC
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 03:00 PM

CIBC Research discusses AUD outlook and adopts a structural bullish bias targeting AUD/USD at 0.77 by bend of Q3 and at 0.80 by year-end.

"The odds of the RBA delivering a rate hike in November have retreated, but we consider the improving macroeconomic backdrop a catalyst for AUD strength.

The probability of a hike coming in conjunction with the November Statement on Monetary Policy has fallen from nearly 80% three months ago to now stand at a little over 20%.

But policymakers remain confident in the economy, stating that “progress on both inflation and unemployment is expected”. CIBC argues. 


CIBC Research/Market Commentary
May 22 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-Signs Point To Gains In AUD/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 10:45 AM

Bullish AUD/USD sentiment is growing as risk-positive trade chatter surrounding the U.S. and China boosts markets that are correlated to the Australian dollar -- such as equities, commodities and emerging market currencies.
The upbeat view sent AUD/USD to a short-term high.
The neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern as well as the 23.6 Fib of 0.8136-0.7413 have broken.
A daily close above those should bolster AUD optimism.
The April 25 and 24 highs, 0.7606 and 0.7620 respectively, remain hurdles.
A break of the latter should cause a decent short squeeze.
Resistances near 0.7680/90, where the April 23 high and 38.2 Fib of 0.8136-0.7413 sit, and 0.7735/55, where the April 20 high and daily cloud base are, would then be targeted.
The U.S. and Australian economic data calendars are light until Friday.
Impact from the data risk is likely to be limited as the long-U.S.
holiday weekend nears.
AUD/USD bulls won't have many barriers to overcome for now.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 22 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Holds Short-Term Props; Monday's High A Pivot To 112.23
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 10:30 AM
  • USD/JPY's pullback from Monday's 111.39 high holds 100-HMA
  • 110.79 low also fills Fri-Sun price gap, resets hourly RSIs
  • 111.39 is 100% Fibo off May low, with the 161.8% at 112.23
  • 112.23 is also 161.8% off the March base, so 111.39+ close key
  • Tsy yields up from Asia lows, but fine Philly data little help
  • FOMC mins, options, O/B dailies downside risks after 112.23 test

Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 22 - 01:24 PM
EUR/CHF: Prepare For Another Brexit Shock On June-10? - ING
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 11:15 AM

ING Research discusses CHF outlook into the the Swiss vote on a fundamental monetary reform on June 10.

"The probability of a “yes” may be underestimated, as was the case with the Brexit referendum. The short-term impact of a “yes” would be great uncertainty but, in the longer term, Vollgeld could hurt the economy, have important redistributive consequences and greatly increase the role of the state in the economy. 

In the short run, the uncertainty of re-wiring the monetary and banking system in Switzerland would probably be negative for the CHF. Wider credit spreads and more limited access to credit should pose headwinds to an economy already suffering persistently low inflation. Some models put EUR/CHF fair value at 1.50 and we would say the uncertainty could see EUR/CHF rise above 1.30 from near 1.20 today.

The situation over the longer term could be entirely different however. Spooked by the prospect of helicopter money, negative equity and the inability to reduce money supply when needed, the SNB may prefer a conservative monetary policy, limiting the creation of CHF," ING argues. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
May 22 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Italy Politics Keeps Pressure On EUR/USD
First appeared on eFXplus on May 22 - 10:05 AM

Italian politics will hold sway over EUR/USD for now.
Its bounce off Monday's low neared the 10-Day SMA but a report nI6N1S302N that eurosceptic economist Paolo Savona could become the new government's economy minister sent the pair spiraling lower.
Italian-German yield spreads surrendered most of the tightening seen earlier in the day as 10-year BTP prices now trade down on the day.
EUR/USD reacted just as sharply, giving up earlier gains as it dipped below 1.1775.
Daily RSI has turned down again and a long upper wick is currently in place on the daily candle.
A break of Monday's low will negate bullish reversal signals and the pair will likely go on to new trend lows. Markets may have to get used to such severe reactions as the new Italian government's plans appear at odds with the EU.
If tensions between Italy and the EU indeed escalate, EUR/USD's slide from 2018's high might extend through key supports near 1.1700 and 1.1550.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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