• Cable softer during NY trade, but another 1.32 false break offers dip-buyers hope

• The pair continues to draw support from EUR/GBP cross selling

• However, rebound attempts remain shallow, keeping spot in consolidation

• Another lift in US yields (10y nearing 5.35%) underpins USD

• On the technical front, the 200-hour MA cluster at 1.3237-60 is also a cap on cable

• Additional hurdles sit at 1.3274 and 1.3300. Support comes in at 1.3140-60
GBPUSD vs 200-hour MA

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• NY opened near 1.1200 after EUR/USD traded 1.1261-1.1161 overnight

• EUR/USD traded a tight 1.1217-1.1187 range in NY, down -0.43% late in the day

• USD, US yield gains, wider spreads capped the topside

• Rallies in stocks, silver & USD/CNH's drop from its high limited EUR/USD downside

• Despite the lack of action in NY's trading session technicals remain bearish

• Daily, monthly RSIs & widening Bolli bands indicate downward momentum remains

• EUR/USD's hold below the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs add to the bearish tech signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research likes buying NZD/USD on dips below 0.56.

"We think this sell-off has been extreme and is reflecting multiple factors: weaker global risk sentiment, NZD’s lower carry relative to the AUD, the negative terms of trade shock from elevated oil prices and the USD firming. NZD/USD is fundamentally undervalued, but underperformance may persist until the next RBNZ and Fed meetings," ANZ notes.

"Although the pair may consolidate over the next few weeks, year-end seasonality should provide some upside. Any easing in Middle East tensions would support high-beta currencies such as the NZD. We therefore view dips below 0.56 as a buying opportunity," ANZ adds.

USD/JPY sellers may have to endure a bit more pain before seeing meaningful gains.

The latest leg higher was helped by a report that Japan's government pension fund skipped allocation discussions at its September meeting, undermining one of the catalysts behind the yen's early-September rally.

Although the pair continues to orbit the key 158 level, the broader backdrop still favors the dollar. Haven demand remains supportive as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance and as concerns about rising debt burdens weigh on global bond markets.

At the same time, the technology-led equity rally at the start of the fourth quarter has reduced demand for traditional safe havens, limiting yen strength even as carry-trade volatility increases.

As a result, buyers continue to emerge on dips toward 157, while risk reversals are gradually paring near-term expectations for further yen appreciation. Intervention concerns and weakness in EUR/JPY tied to European fiscal stresses are slowing the advance, but they have yet to reverse the broader uptrend.

In the near term, USD/JPY appears more likely to challenge its 200-day moving average and potentially probe the 159 area before a more durable yen recovery takes hold.

Longer term, the yen's outlook remains tied to the pace of Bank of Japan tightening, the Fed outlook, equity market stability and incoming economic data. BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida noted that the global AI boom has supported financial conditions, while warning that markets could face setbacks if profit expectations prove overly optimistic.

As such, building long-yen positions on approaches toward USD/JPY 160 may offer a more favorable risk-reward setup, either as the policy outlook gradually turns more supportive for the yen or as a hedge against potential bouts of market turbulence.
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Credit Agricole CIB Research revises down its USD/JPY forecasts.

"Without Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) changing its asset allocations towards domestic assets, USD/JPY could struggle to head significantly lower while oil prices remain elevated and the BoJ only matches Fed rate hikes.

While we cannot know the new asset reallocations of the GPIF, which could be revealed in early November, we judge the most likely new allocations towards domestic bonds of between 31-35% combined with no increase or a modest increase in domestic equity holdings to 31%. Such reallocations would generate repatriation flows of USD115- 138.1bn, resulting in short-term fair value for USD/JPY between 148-150," CACIB notes.

"We are lowering our USD/JPY forecast profile, now expecting the exchange rate to average 156 in Q426 (down from 163) and to continue its downward path to 150 in Q427 (previously 156)," CACIB adds.

(Typo in title corrected)

• USD/CAD is hovering around levels last seen in April 2025

• Although repeated failures to break cleanly through 1.4248 suggests topside momentum is slowing

• There is no clear catalyst for a CAD rebound yet

• US yields are continuing to drift higher (10s at 5.29%), which keeps dollar dips shallow and biased to the upside

• Initial support comes in at 1.4180 (200-hour MA), with a deeper cushion at 1.4126-40. Resistance: 1.4300

• In the near-term, the bias leans towards consolidation leading into the CA labour market report (due Oct 9)
usdcad hourly chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own) ((Email: ))

Goldman Sachs Research likes short EUR/AUD exposure in the near-term.

"Looking ahead, we see two-sided risks for the currency. Many of the macro tailwinds that have supported AUD this year remain intact, including resilient global growth, terms of trade tailwinds, a complicated but supportive China macro connection, notable fiscal resilience, and a strong carry offering. As a result, we see scope for further AUD outperformance with our preferred expression being short EUR/AUD," GS notes.

On the domestic front, however, downside risks from the housing and consumer sectors remain a concern. And while our economists have flagged the possibility of additional tightening if inflation surprises to the upside, they expect the RBA to hold policy until easing in 2H2027," GS adds.

JP Morgan sees EUR/USD a sell-on-rallies in the near-term.

"Sunday gaps are always questionable so trying to gauge the appetite to sell the rally here as all we will do this week is chase the Bund- OAT spread tick for tick given the overall lack of meaningful data on the calendar," JPM notes.

"So levels to watch are the fresh low of 1.1161 last night and 1.1109 Fibo retrace support on the downside. On the top a close above Friday’s highs of 1.1285 would represent an outside day reversal and 1.1310/30 was the breakdown level on Thursday," JPM adds.

By Justin McQueen

LONDON, Oct 5 - USD/CAD has swung from one extreme to the other since September, with RSI moving from oversold territory to firmly overbought. Spot is now trading around levels last seen in April 2025, although repeated failures to break cleanly through the year-to-date high at 1.4248 suggest that topside momentum may be starting to lose traction.

That said, the RSI being overbought is not in itself a compelling reason to fade the move. USD/CAD has shown a tendency in recent months to trend further and for longer than expected, leaving short-term counter-trend positions vulnerable. Historically, when RSI first breaks above 78 — which occurred last week — spot has generally continued to grind higher over the following 5–10 sessions.

However, in the medium term, the signal is more constructive for CAD. Over a 60-day period, USD/CAD has more consistently pulled back after entering this degree of overbought territory, with the main exceptions occurring during recessionary periods, notably in 1998 and 2008. In short, the near-term bias remains for a possible further squeeze higher, but the risk-reward for chasing topside looks increasingly less attractive, particularly if spot fails to sustain breaks above 1.4248.
CAD RSI signals

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(Adds headline)

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6933 overnight, buyers emerged, the pair turned positive

• US September ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a risk in NY's morning

• 0.6966 traded in Europe's morning, NY opened near 0.6960, up +0.16%

• Softer US yields , USD/CNH pull back from its high helped buoy

• Rallies in gold, silver and copper also contributed to AUD/USD's buoyancy

• Daily bull hammer formed but pair still within Friday's daily range

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs give AUD/USD bulls some hope
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/JPY is in the limelight due to broad euro weakness. EUR/USD at risk of a bigger slump

• USD/JPY has seen a 157.46-158.16 range, on Monday, according to EBS data

• Last week spot failed to sustain breaks below 156.68 Fibo, setting up a bear trap

• 156.68 Fibo is a 38.2% retracement of the 150.89 to 159.03 (September) EBS rise

• A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but then reverses: a bullish sign

• However, USD/JPY may have found a top ahead of 160 as Japanese official rhetoric changes

Daily Chart


Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Oct 5 (Reuters) - The fragile EUR/USD could be set for a bigger slump to a major retracement level in coming sessions due to a combination of weak fundamentals and bearish developments on the weekly chart.

The euro slid sharply on Monday to a multi-month low as fiscal worries in France in the wake of a steep bond market rout stoked contagion fears in the region, helping the dollar shrug off soft US jobs data that dented near-term rate hike expectations.

EUR/USD is at risk of a deeper slide to the 1.1104 level, a 50% retracement of the 1.0125 to 1.2084 (2025 to 2026) EBS rise, in part due to last week's bearish close below the 1.1336 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retracement of the same 1.0125 to 1.2084 gain.

The downside bias is being reinforced by the 14-week momentum reading, which has been negative for three weeks straight.
Weekly Chart


Weekly Momentum Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable fell to 1.3191 in Asia as EUR/USD slid to 17-month low of 1.1161

• EUR/GBP simultaneously fell to 0.8461 in Asia, its lowest level since July

• Euro negatively impacted by French fiscal woes, early Spanish election risk

• 1.3191 is the lowest level for GBP/USD since Friday's 1.3256 high

• Support points include 1.3182 (Thursday's 3-month low) and 1.3140 (June low)

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 10% to 91,075 (3-month high) in week to Sept 29

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option prices spiked higher last week as French debt concerns hit EUR and forced option short covering

• 1.1300 option barrier breach fuelled demand for strikes in the 1.1100 zone last week

• Recall hedge funds were huge buyers of downside digital type options - 6-12-month expiry 1.07-1.06 strikes

• 1.1200 option barriers were breached in Asia Monday, forcing more short gamma covering and option price gains

• Implied volatility eyes March 2026 peaks - above takes prices to highs since July 2025 - up from multi year lows mid Sept

• Downside over upside strike premium on risk reversals eyes levels last seen late 2022 - 1-month was neutral in mid Sept

• Friday's FX options wrap - Euro puts soar on French debt fears
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD whipsaws lower, undoing most of Friday's gain, last 0.6940

• Negative-USD reaction to NFP overturned by yields-related EUR selloff

• But as liquidity improves with European markets opening, EUR bobs up

• AUD/USD hence stabilizing, though bearish technical outlook may persist

• Even if it exits Bollinger downtrend channel 0.6982, strong ceiling overhead

• 200 DMA coincides with Ichimoku cloud near 0.7032; 100 DMA at 0.7055
AUD

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/KRW firms up as steep EUR losses overshadow US NFP

• Rises back to 1346.0, slightly above Fri close of 1344.2

• Could overturn previous closing inside downtrend channel 1345.5

• EUR drops sharply, down more than 0.7%, buoying USD/AXJ

• Concerns over euro bond yield premiums burdens the EUR

• S. Korea financial markets closed Monday
KRW

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD down 0.15%, offered despite weaker-than- expected US jobs data

• Markets take reduced October Fed rate hike odds in stride

• Above-target US inflation makes further hikes in coming months likely

• With US yields near multi-year highs, AUD upside likely to remain capped

• Support 0.6900-10, 0.6865-70, resistance 0.6975-80, 0.6995-0.7000

• Asia range 0.6942-0.6959; partial holiday in Australia dampens activity
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY still holding relatively bid despite weak US NFP, Japan off'l speak

• USD still bid elsewhere, affecting sentiment? Middle East escalation too

• Crude oil prices off some at NY close but up again on weekend news

• USD/JPY range Friday wide 156.96-158.21, Asia so far today 157.62-99 EBS

• Market not really believing Japan official-speak endorsing BOJ recent hikes

• EconMin Kiuchi admitted end of deflation, no need for extra-loose BOJ policy

• But Friday comments taken in stride ahead of US data jobs mkt release then

• FinMin Katayama again suggested FX intervention possible Friday

• News of MOF review of 200 funds worth Y7 tln also had little lasting impact

• USD/JPY currently holding in 157.41-78 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• 100 and 200-HMAs in area at 157.57 and 157.74, respectively

• Wider core range between 156.64 daily Ichimoku kijun, 200-DMA at 158.50

• Nearby option expiries today 157.00-05 $644 mln, 157.50 $639 mln

• Also 158.00 $852 mln, 158.25-30 $776 mln and some between 158.50-70

• JGB-US rate differentials narrowing from recent highs, 2s @286, 10s 214 bps

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , , oil early Asia

• On US jobs report , Fed ,

• On Katayama-speak , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US i10-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Macmahon Holdings rise as much as 5% to A$1.050, posting their biggest intraday percentage gain since September 24

• Mining services provider's unit Macmahon Underground secures two-year contract extension from Vault Minerals at Daisy Milano gold mine in Western Australia

• Says extension is expected to generate about A$98 million ($68.13 million) in revenue, extends contract to October 2028

• Says FY27 guidance and capital expenditure budget remain unchanged

• Stock up 57.1% this year, as of last close

($1 = 1.4384 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's FMR Resources rise as much as 6.9% to A$0.62, their highest level since Sept 25

• Diversified explorer says diamond drilling program has commenced the La Lorena Project

• Co says it finds multiple diamond mineralization points in its copper-gold La Lorena Project in Chile

• YTD, stock up more than 143%, including day's moves

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD likely to stay bid on dips after closing 0.3% higher Friday

• Supported by weaker-than- expected US jobs data, waning Oct Fed rate bets

• US NFP +29k in Sep vs. 90k expected, prior 2 months revised sharply lower

• Odds of Fed Oct hike hover around 23%, was around 70% early last week

• US yields fall sharply after jobs data, but close higher as oil rebounds

• Fed's Hammack says there's still time to weigh next monetary policy move

• Support 0.6900-10, 0.6865-70, resistance 0.6975-80, 0.6995-0.7000

• Friday range 0.6913-0.6975; Chinese markets closed Mon
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR net spec short 63,256 contracts as of Tuesday versus short of 52,334 contracts previous week

• JPY net spec long 55,440 contracts versus long of 71,982 contracts previously

• GBP net spec short 91,095 contracts vs 82,568 short

• AUD net spec short 63,239 contracts vs 46,814 short

• MXN net spec long 52,402 contracts vs 75,167 long

• CHF net spec short 24,617 contracts vs 26,752 short

• CAD short 78,671 contracts vs 53,210 short
EUR net spec Oct 2 2026

(Burton Frierson)

(Corrects typo in line 2)

• NY opened near 1.1235, pair rallied after the September jobs report

• The softer data sent the USD, US yields , USD/CNH down

• Riskier assets like gold, silver, equities rallied to reinforce the USD selling

• EUR/USD hit 1.1285 but then a good portion of the data-induced gains faded

• USD, yields turned up, gold & silver turned down & oil moved upward

• EUR/USD sat near 1.1250 late, it traded up only +0.10% in NY's afternoon

• Daily RSI turned up but monthly RSI indicates longer-term downward momentum

• Widening Bolli bands, pair's hold below 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6935 after 0.6914 traded overnight, pair rallied early

• USD, US yields fell after the US September payroll data

• Gold, silver, copper, stocks rallied while USD/CNH fell to 6.7008

• AUD/USD hit 0.6976, bulls couldn't add to those gains however

• USD, yields moved upward while gold and silver turned lower

• AUD/USD neared 0.6945 late, it traded up only +0.23% in NY's afternoon

• Techs are mixed; daily RSI rising but pair is below the 10- & 200-DMAs

• AUD/USD could be entering a consolidation phase, also a bearish signal
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)