The dollar rose for a fourth straight day on Friday, boosted by another round of hawkish Fed rhetoric, while weaker US equities weighed on risk-sensitive currencies.

Boston Fed President Sue Collins and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation has broadened, supporting tighter policy and vigilance against demand overheating.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the economy remains solid, but persistent inflation keeps the bias tilted toward further rate hikes.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Treasury markets are functioning well and banks have improved liquidity access, but Fed backstops should be strengthened.

BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in January 2027.

Markets largely shrugged off October PPI, which rose a below-forecast 0.3%. Attention now turns to next week's Treasury auctions, Fed speakers and ASEAN meetings involving world leaders.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects US trade deals with Mexico and Canada despite tariff threats on Mexico, and said Treasury backed adding Megaspeed to the entity list months ago.

DXY hit a fresh 19-month high and is headed for its biggest weekly gain in two months, with bullish momentum pushing the index toward the upper end of its 20-day Keltner band as the Aussie, Swiss franc and Swedish krona lag.

One-month DXY risk reversals edged higher to 0.16% in favor of USD calls, while broader volatility measures and DXY futures turnover remained steady.

EUR/USD fell to a fresh 19-month low at 1.1026 on broad USD strength and firm Treasury yields, with the bias remaining bearish below the 10- and 21-DMAs.

GBP/USD softened to 1.3215 in late NY trade, leaving a bearish bias below 1.3250 ahead of UK jobs and CPI data next week.

USD/JPY slipped to 159.52 on a volume spike, echoing Thursday's pullback from 160, but favorable yield spreads keep the bias bullish above 159.00 despite rising intervention risk.

AUD/USD fell from 0.6800 to a 10-month low at 0.6772 on broad USD strength. The bias remains bearish below the 10-DMA.

Treasury yields were up as much as 4 basis points. The 2s-10s curve rose about 4 basis points to +28.2bp.

The S&P 500 fell about 0.50%, recovering from the worst levels of the day.

WTI oil edged up 0.17%

Gold was little changed, copper fell about 1.8% and Bitcoin slumped for a second day.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.23%, USD/JPY -0.11%, GBP/USD -0.22%, AUD/USD -0.43%, DXY +0.19%, EUR/JPY -0.32%, GBP/JPY -0.24%, AUD/JPY -0.54%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs on Fed and ECB rate outlook.

"We expect two more rate hikes from the Fed and one from the ECB, but see both returning to cuts in late 2027," GS notes.

"With most of our forecasts for other central banks also below market pricing, we expect longer-term rates to come down modestly despite large government deficits and heavy AI-linked borrowing," GS adds.

• NY opened near 0.6800 after 0.6815 traded overnight, pair fell in NY

• Broad-based USD buying, firm US yields weighed on AUD/USD

• Comments from Fed's Collins and Daly reinforced the bid for the US dollar

• Drops in silver, copper & gold's downward move added weight on AUD/USD

• AUD/USD hit a fresh 10-month low of 0.6772, sat nearby late, was down -0.46%

• Techs are bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair below 10-DMA

• Hold below the 50% retracement of the 0.6422-0.7277 rally adds to bear signs
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research highlights a bearish seasonal pattern for AUD/NZD during the month of November.

"Past experience suggests AUD/NZD weakness has historically been concentrated in November, shortly after peak dairy production in NZ. Fonterra's (NZ’s largest dairy cooperative) mid-November payment should be the largest to supplying farmers for October milk production. Since 2016, AUD/NZD has fallen by an average 0.64% in the month preceding the November payment and 0.25% in the preceding week," BofA notes.

"AUD/NZD 1- week and 1-month returns before payments have generally been lower than after payments, especially if we exclude outlier years (i.e. 2022). The more pronounced bearish seasonality before these payments likely reflects earlier conversion and hedging of dairy export receipts, alongside the information on production, dairy prices and farm income that accumulates through October and early November," BofA adds.

EUR/USD fell to a fresh 19-month low on Friday, and more weakness looks likely. Expectations for Fed policy, inflation-rate markets and technical signals all point lower level for EUR/USD, and together they should limit any rally.

US 2-year and 10-year yields rose sharply this week, and September 2027 SOFR futures prices fell significantly as investors priced in a more hawkish Fed, fueled largely by unexpectedly strong US CPI data. Bank of America reinforced that view by adding a 25bp hike at the January meeting to its forecast. It still expects hikes at the December and March meetings.

Inflation-rate markets reinforce the bearish case. US breakeven inflation rates and inflation-linked swap rates are rising across the 2-, 5- and 10-year tenors. That supports the idea that the Fed may need to raise rates more than markets previously expected.

The technical picture also points to more downside. Daily and monthly RSIs are falling but aren't oversold, so downward momentum remains. November's monthly inverted hammer candle and the recent break below the 50% retracement of the 1.0125-1.2084 rally add to the bearish tone. On Wednesday, EUR/USD also completed its consolidation of the drop from the August 21 high, which suggests the broader downtrend will persist.

Bears are likely to target support in the 1.0930/45 and 1.0725/40 zones for now, and a deeper decline can't be ruled out.
eurusd


usbei


usinfl

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook for the coming week.

"EUR/USD has dipped below its FX fair value that we estimate based on measures of EUR-USD rate spread and Eurozone credit risks among other drivers. In the near term, global FX factors like the path of the broad USD across the board, the resilience of risk sentiment and the performance of US tech stocks could remain key drivers of the EUR/USD outlook. This is partly because next week’s data calendar out of the Eurozone is light, with only the German ZEW and the final Eurozone CPI data for October on the docket," CACIB notes.

"We will also hear from several ECB speakers who should reiterate that the Governing Council is ready to bring sticky Eurozone inflation under control by hiking rates in coming months. EUR/USD is looking undervalued and oversold, and this could help it stabilise in the near term, especially if the latest broad USD rally starts to lose momentum," CACIB adds.

• USD/CHF rises to 0.8380 EBS high before US Oct PPI data at 1330 GMT

• 0.8380 is highest level since Oct 14 (0.8395 was EBS 17-month high that day)

• PPI is forecast up 0.4% MM, 6.6% YY; core forecast up 0.3% MM, 5.0% YY

• Hot data would be boost for Fed hawks, and might further inflate the dollar

• USD/CHF bull targets include 0.84 and 0.8475 (EBS high in May 2025)

• SNB set to maintain zero policy rate on Dec 10 (day after expected Fed hike)

USDCHF

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 22 pip range since the London open; 1.3220-1.3242

• 1.3220 is lowest level since Oct 15 (1.3223 was Thursday low)

• US Oct PPI data due at 1330 GMT: up 0.4% MM forecast; core f/c 0.3%

• Hot PPI would be boost for Fed hawks, and could further inflate dollar

• GBP/USD bear targets include 1.3200 and 1.3137 (October's 11-month low)

• Fed's Warsh to speak at public AI forum in San Francisco on Monday

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms slide in premarket trading

• Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, fell 3.7% to $68,866.86, hitting three-month low; ether slipped 3.9% to $1,937.10

• Crypto exchange Coinbase Global down 2.6%, while bitcoin bull Strategy shed 2.5%

• Trading platform Robinhood Markets declined 2%

• Crypto miners also lost ground: Riot Platforms 2.2%, Mara Holdings 3.1%

• Shares of American Bitcoin , backed by the two eldest sons of President Donald Trump, slid 2%; ABTC is a majority-owned subsidiary of Hut 8 , which is down 2.7%

• Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet down 1.8%

• ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF fell around 4% each

• Ether-linked stocks Bitmine Immersion Technologies

and Sharplink Gaming down about 3% each

(Anand Gopal in Bengaluru)

Nov 13 (Reuters) - USD/JPY is poised to test 161.00 as bets on a larger Federal Reserve rate hike lift US yields and the dollar, despite Tokyo's intervention warnings.

The US dollar is set for its best weekly gain in two months, pushing the Japanese yen past the key 160 mark and putting traders on alert for intervention.

However, traders may be willing to test higher USD/JPY levels if they conclude that Tokyo acting alone would have only a limited impact and that Washington is reluctant to do much more than lend verbal support.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that Tokyo stood ready to act again after record intervention in July and August.

USD/JPY's technical outlook remains quite bullish. There is scope for a retest of the 161.00 psychological level and beyond. Spot registered two daily closes in a row above 159.75, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 163.99 in July to 152.89 in September on EBS, on Wednesday and Thursday. Related comment
Daily Chart

(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY butterfly spread options can gauge and hedge FX intervention threat - there's increased demand/premium Friday

• 2-week 10-delta fly paid 1.5 vols, Nov 30 expiry 10-delta fly 1.35, 1-month 15 delta at 1.0 and 1-month 10 delta 1.275 vol

• The benchmark 1-month 25 delta butterfly spread was paid more recently at 0.525

• Prices still low versus summer highs, when 1-week 10-delta flies were about 3.0 and 1-month about 2.0 in mid-June

• Risk of Japanese intervention rises the further USD/JPY trades above 160.00 and these options are a lower cost hedge
USD/JPY 10-delta butterfly spreads

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD is set to close below 200-WMA at 1.1105

• Drop to 1.0873 may follow a close below 1.1105

• A close back over 1.1105 could spring a bear trap

• 21-WMA has just crossed below 100-WMA - bearish

• Rough 1.05-1.01 fall followed this signal in Dec 2024

• That drop was followed by a rise above 1.20

• EUR/USD slides on lots of speculation, little substance

EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 17.5 pip range thus far Friday; 1.32235-1.3241

• 1.32235 is half-a-pip above Thursday's four-week low

• Dollar buying fuelled drop to 1.3223; USD index hit 19-month peak

• 1.3459 was Tuesday high, before hot US CPI, hawkish Fed officials

• Williams says Fed has "work to do" to get inflation back to target

• US Oct PPI data due at 1330 GMT: 0.4% MM forecast; core f/c 0.3%

GBPUSD

• GBP/USD remains under pressure in Asia after closing 0.25% lower on Thursday

• Undermined by hawkish Fed expectations, risk aversion and broadly firmer USD

• Fading prospects for a Iran peace deal, higher oil prices, AI concerns weigh

• US PPI Fri, Sep UK employment and Oct inflation next week key for direction

• GBP threatens a weekly close below 1.3281, the 200-week MA which is bearish

• Key support at 1.3322, 76.4% Fibo retracement of Oct-Nov rally under threat

• Break opens 1.3137, October low; resistance 1.3270-80, 1.3330-40

• Thursday range 1.3223-1.3281, Asia 1.3229-1.32405
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD heavy, 1.1048-63 EBS after fall to 1.1046 yesterday

• Now lowest since April 2025, only 1.1000 support ahead of more losses

• Some daily lows ahead of 1.0880 trough then at 1.0880 on April 7

• Weekly chart shows pair now below the 200-WMA at 1.1111

• Through 1.1187 100-MMA, towards 1.0654-1.0938 monthly Ichimoku cloud

• EUR/USD also through 50% retracement of 1.0125-1.2084 move Feb 3 '25-Jan 27

• Could be headed towards Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of above move at 1.0873

• Nearby option expiries today 1.1000 E845 mln, between 1.1055-90 E620 mln

• Also above between 1.1100-10 total E1.2 bln, likely to help cap upside

• EUR/JPY also heavy 176.63-85 EBS after fall to 176.28 yesterday

• Top of recent range 178.45 on November 4

• Ascending 200-HMA, descending 100-HMA converging at 176.97, 176.98 above

• Hourly Ichimoku cloud 177.00-21 above

• EUR/GBP 0.8352 New York close, below 0.8354-62 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Above 0.8349 converging ascending 100-HMA, descending 200-HMA

• Some option expiries today at 0.8370 strike just above

• EUR/CHF outlier again and buoyant, 0.9239-40 EBS, near its 0.9237 200-DMA

• Holding above its ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud between 0.9200-33

• Related comments , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:


EUR/CHF:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD steadies Fri, but remains down 0.7% wtd with scant support nearby

• Downside open towards 0.6662 ytd low after major technical break of 0.6835

• RBA Nov meeting minutes due & Governor Bullock speaking at ASIC forum Tue

• Critical AU Oct jobs update due Thur (prior -39.3k jobs, 4.7% unemployment)

• U.S.-Iran war appears no closer to resolution as hostilities continue

• Hawkish Fed rhetoric firms FFR hike bets and pushes DXY to 19-month high

• Futures pricing implies Dec 9 Fed hike of at least 25 bps now priced in

• Range Asia 0.67951-0.68149 support 0.6662, resistance 0.7068 0.7140 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.15% Fri as hawkish Fed comments continue to underwrite USD rally

• AUD targeting 0.6662 ytd low as downside momentum builds towards year end

• RBA Nov meeting minutes due & Governor Bullock speaking at ASIC forum Tue

• Critical AU Oct jobs update due Thur (prior -39.3k jobs, 4.7% unemployment)

• Middle East hostilities continue, Trump claims Iran deal not needed

• Futures pricing implies Dec 9 Fed hike of at least 25 bps now fully priced

• Range Asia 0.67951-0.6810 support 0.6662, resistance 0.7068 0.7140 0.7282
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


AUD Daily 21/55/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up briefly to 160.03 EBS yesterday, Asia so far today 159.80-87

• Above descending 100-DMA at 158.97, ascending 200-DMA at 158.73

• Also above descending daily Ichimoku cloud between 156.70-158.31

• Ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud also now below between 158.80-159.51

• USD bid across the board as US yields surges, Treasury 10s NY close 5.13%

• View Fed December hike almost a certainty, maybe another in March

• US-Iran uncertainties too, associated crude oil price rises

• JGB-US Treasury rate differential in 2s jump to 292 bps, in 10s to @222 bps

• Japanese FX intervention seen back on table, towards 161.00?

• 160.39 high on September 2 before fall on G20 speak key resistance

• Large option expiries today to downside, total $2.3 bln between 159.00-65

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• Fed Daly-speak , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research on the scope for JPY buying intervention as USD/JPY approaches the key 160 level.

"With USD/JPY moving back towards pre-joint intervention levels from late July/early August, it has prompted Japanese officials to step up verbal intervention overnight to support the yen. Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura stated overnight that “I have a strong impression that the currency moves over the past few days have been too fast”. He added that “it’s too early to forget what happened this summer”," MUFG notes.

"It sends a strong signal that Japan is prepared to intervene again to support the yen which should help to limit further upside for USD/JPY beyond 160.00. However, it will be even more difficult to reverse the upward trend for USD/JPY right now with the USD strengthening broadly on the back of expectations for faster Fed rate hikes. If the rising risk of further intervention helps to stabilize USD/JPY while the US dollar continues to strengthen more broadly it could see non-USD yen crosses moving lower," MUFG adds.

• NZD/USD -0.5% from Thur 0.5573 high as DXY continues to grind higher

• NZ Oct manufacturing PMI eases slightly to 54.9 (prior 56.5)

• Middle East hostilities continue, Trump claims Iran deal not needed

• WTI up 2.8%, Gold down 2.9%; Nvidia -5.3% as CEO crisis seems post-peak

• Sticky U.S. inflation and hawkish Fed officials fuel FFR hike bets

• Futures pricing implies Dec 9 Fed hike of at least 25 bps now fully priced

• NZD targets 0.5485 support, break below would stoke excitement amongst bears

• Range NZ 0.5540-47, support 0.5485, resistance 0.5710 0.5995 0.6012
DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


NZD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD trades below 0.6800 for 1st-time since Jan as DXY extends surge

• Trump tells Vance to abandon Iran deal efforts as hostilities continue

• Brent crude up 3.6%, Gold touches $3,852 per oz 12-month low

• AUD break below crucial 0.6835 support confirms significant downtrend

• Pair now targets 0.6660 support zone, looks likely to end year on lows

• RBA Nov meeting minutes due & Governor Bullock speaking at ASIC forum Tue

• AU Oct jobs update (Nov 19) crucial, prior -39.3k jobs, 4.7% unemployment

• Overnight range 0.6798-0.6837 support 0.6662, resistance 0.7068 0.7140
Gold Daily 21-DMA


DXY Daily 55/100/200-DMA


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1095 after EUR/UDS rallied to 1.1103 in Europe's morning

• The pair traded lower in early action and then the selling intensified

• US yield , USD gains & wide US-DE spreads

weighed

• Drops in gold, silver & USD/CNH rally into positive territory added weight on EUR/USD

• 19-month low of 1.1046 traded, the pair sat nearby late, down -0.37% in NY's afternoon

• Falling RSIs, end of recent consolidation phase are bearish tech signals

• Break of 50% Fib of 1.0125-1.2084, monthly inverted hammer add to bearish signals
eurusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Citi on the scope for BoJ and SNB intervention.

"CitiFX Strategy is watching 160 levels in USDJPY while a SNB statement overnight reminded that they are "ready to be active in FX markets". However, our JPY options trader says trade weighted yen is nowhere near the lows we've seen last few round of intervention so the bar may be higher than current USDJPY levels," Citi notes.

"CitiFX daily flows data confirms USD longs are building after bottoming in Sep. However overall USD CFPI is nowhere near extreme levels (3.4 on a scale of +/-10 as of yesterday) and CTAs are already max long USD," Citi adds.

• NY opened near 0.6830 after 0.6854 traded overnight, pair's drop extended

• Sharp gains in US yields drove broad-based USD buying

• Drops in gold, silver, copper & USD/CNH's positive turn weighed on AUD/USD

• AUD/USD hit a 10-month low of 0.6798, sat near 0.6805 late, down -0.61%

• Technical signals are growing more bearish as fresh signals emerged

• Recent consolidation ended with new low, 50% Fib of 0.6422-0.7277j broke

• Head & shoulder top completion, falling RSIs, hold below 10- & 21-DMAs add to bear signs

• US October PPI is a key data risk in NY's morning for Friday
audusd

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)