• Canada hit with 35% tariff, others face blanket 15% to 20%

• Canadian dollar slides, euro under pressure

• Sterling slips after UK economy shrinks in May

• Bitcoin scales fresh record high

(Updates to European morning hours)

By Rae Wee and Johann M Cherian

SINGAPORE, July 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose on Friday, fuelled by upheavals on the global trade landscape, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced more import tariffs, ranging from 35% on neighbouring Canada to plans for blanket levies of 15% or 20% on most trading partners.

Trump's latest trade assault on Canada was a surprise for investors who had been anticipating Ottawa could seal a new economic and security deal with its southern neighbour.

The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart and was down 0.22% at C$1.369, following a knee-jerk fall of more than 0.5% after Trump unveiled the tariff rate, which will be levied from August 1.

The euro also slipped 0.1% to $1.1688, heading for a weekly decline of about 0.9% after Trump said the European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of Brussels' trade talks with Washington.

"Officials from various countries that have been negotiating in good faith with the Trump administration may wonder whether President Trump may raise the bar for them - in a similar way to Canada - at this final stretch of trade talks," said Piotr Matys, a senior FX strategist at InTouch Capital Markets.

While the market reaction to the slew of new tariffs has been largely muted compared to April's manic sell-off after "Liberation Day", investors remain on tenterhooks about global trade and whether the August 1 deadline is final.

That, in turn, has supported the dollar , which was up 0.2% against a basket of currencies at 97.79 and set to end the week with a gain of 0.8% - its biggest weekly rise since February.

Also supporting the dollar were data suggesting labour market resilience and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting that tempered market expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.

"Such a move higher (in the dollar) is likely to be seen by a majority of investors as a short-term corrective rebound rather than sustainable reversal. After all, President Trump's policies undermined the dollar's status as the ultimate global reserve currency," Matys said.

The dollar index is down about 9% so far this year, on worries that data could soon reflect more widely the damage U.S. policies have had on the world's largest economy.

The yen slid 0.41% to 146.91 a dollar and was heading for a weekly decline of roughly 1.5%, after Trump slapped tariffs of 25% on Tokyo this week.

Brazil was also among those countries unexpectedly in Trump's tariff crosshairs, and the real , last at 5.532, was set to lose 2% on the week for its steepest decline in nearly five months.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he was seeking a diplomatic solution to Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on Brazil's exports, but vowed to reciprocate like-for-like if they take effect on August 1.

Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.31% at $1.3538, close to a two-week low as data showed Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly for a second month running in May.

Meanwhile, riskier cryptocurrencies saw a boost, driven by institutional investor demand and crypto-friendly U.S. policies.

Bitcoin advanced 3.7% and scaled yet another record high of $118,407.96, while ethereum jumped 5.7% to $2,980.15

"The ... new record reflects the resilience of global risk appetite even in the face of Trump tariffs, as well as high optimism over U.S. legislative proposals," said DBS FX and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang.

He was referring to measures the U.S. House is set to advance in its upcoming 'Crypto Week'.

G10 currency moves against the US dollar

(Reporting by Rae Wee and Johann M Cherian; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Clarence Fernandez and Joe Bavier)

• Offers ahead of 0.6600 are keeping a lid on AUD/USD gains

• 0.6595 was eight-month peak in Asia, before USD lift on Trump tariff news

• Trump-spurred fall based at 0.6557; subsequent high water-mark is 0.6594

• 0.6557 approximates to July 8 high (after AUD jumped on RBA rate hold shock)

• Option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut include a 0.6600 strike

• JPM CEO Dimon says markets under-pricing risk of higher U.S. interest rates

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Tweaked headline)

• USD/JPY, on Friday, has risen to its highest point this week. 147.19 reached

• Yen hurt this week as Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Tokyo

• Beware the cloud will be less supportive in coming sessions

• EBS flow data: sustained buying between Monday and Thursday, selling since

• It suggests FX traders could be taking profits on this week's USD/JPY rise

• That could well put a lid on USD/JPY until next week

• 30, 60-day log correlations between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY remains high

EBS Flow Data Chart:


Correlation Chart:

• Canada hit with 35% tariff, others face blanket 15% to 20%

• Canadian dollar slides, euro under pressure

• Bitcoin scales fresh record high

(Updates to Asia afternoon)

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE, July 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose on Friday, fuelled by upheavals in the global trade landscape, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced more import tariffs, ranging from 35% on neighbouring Canada to plans for blanket levies of 15% or 20% on most trade partners.

Most currencies initially held in tight ranges in early Asian trade, though the dollar gained ground later after Trump's latest comments boosted uncertainty over his evolving trade measures.

The Canadian dollar was down 0.27% at C$1.3693, following a knee-jerk fall of more than 0.5% after Trump unveiled a tariff rate of 35% on imports from the neighbour, starting August 1.

"Canada finds itself in the firing line and it's obviously not the end of the week we wanted to see, so you'd expect to see risk assets fall because there is a risk of escalation from several parties," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

"The tariff headlines so far have been largely ignored, but Canada's... It's something which I don't think the market was braced for."

The European Union could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, Trump said the day before, throwing into question the progress of the bloc's trade talks with Washington.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1682, heading for a weekly decline of about 0.9%.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar also slipped 0.11% to $0.6581 as the market mood soured.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he sought a diplomatic solution to Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on the country, but vowed to reciprocate like-for-like if they take effect on August 1.

The Brazilian real was little changed at 5.5321 per dollar, though set to lose 2% on the week for its steepest such decline in nearly five months.

Elsewhere, sterling was down 0.16% at $1.3558 and was set to lose more than 0.6% on the week.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.34% to $0.6015 and the yen slid 0.44% to 146.91 a dollar.

The Japanese currency was headed for a weekly decline of roughly 1.6%, after Trump slapped tariffs of 25% on Tokyo this week.

While the market reaction to Trump's slew of new tariffs has been largely muted compared to April's manic sell-off after "Liberation Day", investors remain on tenterhooks about global trade and whether the August 1 deadline is final.

That in turn has supported the dollar , which was up 0.2% against a basket of currencies at 97.79, and set to end the week with a gain of 0.8%.

"For the moment, I think the uncertainty is just playing to a little bit of U.S. dollar stability, and I wouldn't be too surprised if that holds for another couple of weeks," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin scaled yet another record high of $117,685.96, driven partly by demand from institutional investors.

"The ... new record reflects the resilience of global risk appetite even in the face of Trump tariffs, as well as high optimism over U.S. legislative proposals," said DBS FX and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang.

He was referring to measures the U.S. House is set to advance in its upcoming 'Crypto Week'.

Ether similarly jumped more than 6% to a five-month high of $3,017.81.

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Clarence Fernandez)

• Shares of Golden Horse Minerals Ltd rise 2.6% to A$0.395

• Gold explorer rose as much as 11.7% earlier to A$0.43, marking its biggest intraday pct. gain since June 26

• Co. finds high-grade gold mineralization in areas it previously reported as low-grade at its Hopes Hill project in Western Australia

• Co says discovery may lead to site expansion

• YTD, stock up ~64%, including the session's gains
(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY and JPY crosses better bid in Asia, pre-weekend Tokyo fix demand

• USD/JPY soft early but up from 146.15 to 147.03 EBS

• Tracking away from 145.83 descending 100-DMA, 144.79-145.55 daily Ichi cloud

• Also away from 146.21 100-HMA, good support for now, break below bearish

• Decisive break below 100-HMA projects test towards 145.10 200-HMA

• Large option expiries today taken in stride, large 146.00-30, 146.75-147.00

• Some expiries on 147 too but not as large, 146 expiries supportive now?

• Some narrowing in JGB-US Tsy rate differentials to help cap USD/JPY upside

• EUR/JPY up from 170.89 early to 171.62 EBS, recent high Wednesday 172.25

• CHF/JPY 183.30 early to 184.29, multi-decade high Wednesday 184.56

• GBP/JPY 198.18 to 199.33, recent multi-month peak 199.82 Wednesday

• 199.82 double top alongside 199.81 on October 30, 2024

• AUD/JPY shines among JPY crosses, 95.94 to 96.80, away from 95.80 200-DMA

• Best since February 97.27/32 double top on 13th/12th

• Related comments , , , also
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley analyzed how G10 currencies respond to changes in terms-of-trade (ToT) and ranked them by the strength, slope, and stability of these relationships. The results help frame which currencies are more exposed to swings in trade dynamics — a key factor in today’s geopolitically-driven market.

Key Points:

Three Ranking Metrics:

1. Strength: How tight is the correlation between FX and ToT shifts?

2. Slope: How responsive is the currency per unit change in ToT?

3. Structural Stability: Using Bai-Perron tests to detect regime shifts — are the relationships consistent over time?

Findings:

• EUR is the least sensitive G10 currency to ToT changes.

• NOK ranks as the most sensitive, reflecting Norway’s heavy reliance on oil exports and commodity cycles.

• CAD also screens as relatively high-beta to ToT shifts.

• Other resource-linked FX (AUD, NZD) sit in the mid-range.

Implication for Strategy:

• EUR/USD: Expected to continue strengthening, driven by yield differentials, not ToT.

• NOK & CAD: Likely to underperform within G10 due to an unfavorable ToT outlook, as global commodity demand softens and energy markets stabilize.

Conclusion:

EUR/USD: Flows and rate differentials matter more than trade swings — remain constructive.

NOK, CAD: High ToT sensitivity exposes them to further underperformance if global growth risks linger or commodity prices soften

July 11 (Reuters) - USD/JPY is currently range-bound with moves contingent on Japanese government bond-U.S. Treasury interest rate differentials and news on U.S. tariffs. The pair has traded between 142.11-148.65 since May 12, and this range is likely to hold with the 146-handle a pivot at present. The market is observing a possible dovish shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, a centrist, suggested two rate cuts are on the table this year amid relief U.S. tariffs are not as high as first expected (less inflationary?) , , .

Also on Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his desire for a July cut , . Governor Michelle Bowman, previously a hawk, recently switched tone, calling for a July rate cut . Related .

While the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee will likely vote for a continued pause on July 30, a September cut remains open , and, depending on future data, there could be another cut this year. JGB-Treasury rate differentials may therefore be near a peak after some recent widening. The 10-year spread might be capped around 292 basis points, where the descending 100-day moving average comes in Friday.

Hence, USD/JPY upside appears limited for now. Japanese exporters and other players have also been good sellers on upticks, especially above 147.00. Along with large July option expiries at the 147.00 strike, this would cap the upside.

As for U.S. tariffs on Japan, most see no major developments until after Japan's July 20 Upper House elections. Much will depend on whether the ruling Liberal Democrat-led coalition can maintain its majority.

Previous comment .
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into month-end:


JGB-US Treasury 10-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)

• AUD/USD slides 0.5% after Trump says confirmation of tariff levels imminent

• Announces 35% tariff on Canada starting Aug 1, letters coming for others

• Trump also flags incoming 'major statement' on Russia Mon

• Uncertainty fuelling broad risk-off sentiment, DXY firms 0.2%

• AUD recoils from hourly upper Bollinger band, short-term support 0.6542

• AU employment data due late next week will an important gauge for RBA

• Range early Asia 0.6559-95, support 0.6542 0.6485 0.6440, resistance 0.66875
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Steady after closing off 0.05% with the U.S. dollar up just 0.1%

• UK and France agreed to end the undocumented people arriving in small boats

• Deal will be popular with right-wing voters in the fight against UK Reform

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages crest, momentum studies fall

• 21-day Bollinger bands ease - daily chart shows a modest negative bias

• Key supports: This week's 1.3528 low, then 1.3408 lower 21-day Bolli band

• Resistance levels: 1.3681 July 4th top, then 1.3787 2025 high on Tuesday

• Close below this week's 1.3528 low would target the 1.3370 June base
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• +0.05% early after closing down 0.2% with the U.S. dollar up 0.2%

• Russia bombarded Kyiv before 'frank' talks with the US and aid pledges

• The conflict in Ukraine shows few signs of any real compromise or endgame

• There is no significant EU or US data today, so headlines will lead EUR/USD

• Charts - daily momentum studies ease, neutral 21-day Bollinger bands

• 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages conflict - daily charts remain net positive

• The first significant resistance is last week's 1.1830 2025 high

• Yesterday's 1.1662 low and the 1.1660 21-DMA are pivotal supports

• Close below 1.1660 21-DMA would target 1.1537, 0.382% of the May/July rise

• 1.1665 930mln, 1.1700 2.602BLN and 1.1770 2.844BLN close July 11th strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD hits fresh 2025 high at 0.6593 early Asia, currently +6.6% ytd

• Dovish tone of Fed minutes likely to underwrite next leg of rally

• Pair pushing the hourly upper Bollinger band, widening gap above 200-DMA

• Re-calibration of AU OCR expectations post RBA decision continues to support

• AU employment data due late next week will an important gauge for RBA

• Overnight range 0.6542-93, support 0.6440 0.6485, resistance 0.66875
AUD Daily 200-DMA


AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

HSBC argues that EUR/USD, having surged sharply in late June, is now likely to pause or consolidate because the euro lacks the domestic fundamentals needed to extend gains beyond the 1.20 area for now.

Key Points:

Four Missing EUR-Centric Drivers:
In “EUR: Ingredients for 1.30 and What’s Missing” (9 July 2025), HSBC outlines four factors the Eurozone would need to sustain a push above 1.20 and towards 1.30:

1. Faster private sector credit growth — more robust lending and investment.

2. Positive, rising real wage growth — household income and spending support.

3. Inventory cycle recovery — signalling stronger demand and industrial activity.

4. More proactive ECB/EU policy intervention — fiscal or monetary support.

Lofty Levels Could Weigh:
EUR/USD is near the top of recent ranges, and while the euro’s strength could push inflation lower, HSBC’s economists (“FX Effects and the ECB,” 10 July 2025) see the ECB in no hurry to offset this via new rate cuts. They note that the pass-through to core inflation may be more muted than spot FX moves imply.

Inflation Risks Balanced:
Although a stronger euro raises the risk of sub-2% inflation, policymakers appear comfortable staying on hold for now. The ECB’s cautious stance implies that without a fresh domestic growth or credit impulse, further EUR upside is limited.

Conclusion:

Tactically: The recent EUR/USD rally may be due for consolidation, with 1.20 likely to act as a near-term ceiling until more EUR-centric growth drivers materialize.
Strategically: HSBC’s view remains that the euro can benefit in H2 from broader USD weakness — but further gains above 1.20 would require stronger Eurozone fundamentals, which are not yet in place.

(Updates prices and headline, adds fresh analyst comment)

• Dollar pinned by drop in Treasury yields, dovish Fed

• Brazil's real hits 1-month low as Trump criticizes Bolsonaro trial

• Bitcoin hits fresh record high, rising above $113,000

By Hannah Lang, Chibuike Oguh

NEW YORK, July 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies including the euro and the Swiss franc on Thursday as currency markets largely shrugged off President Donald Trump's latest tariff missives, except in Brazil where a threatened 50% levy sent the real sliding. Investors were hungry for riskier assets, with the most damaging tariff scenarios looking increasingly unlikely. That has helped Nvidia to become the first stock ever with a $4 trillion valuation, and lifted cryptocurrency bitcoin to an all-time peak above $113,000. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields edged higher after data showed that jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 1 basis points to 4.352%. Optimism was also buoyed by minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting, with most policymakers of the opinion that interest rate cuts would be appropriate later this year.

Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington, said the U.S. dollar is partly benefitting from realization that notwithstanding the volatility from tariffs, the U.S. economy is still a linchpin in the global trading system.

" What should you do when the U.S. is acting up? Well, it is still to hold on to the U.S. dollar. In a weird way this whole tariff talk and the suddenness of it, it just demonstrates the powerful idea of leverage," Perez said.

The dollar strengthened 0.37% to 0.797 against the Swiss franc , on track for gains after two consecutive sessions of losses. It was flat at 146.235 against the Japanese yen .

The euro down 0.23% at $1.1692 and was set for two straight sessions of losses against the greenback.

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was up 0.27% at 97.638, poised for gains after losing ground in the previous session. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he wanted to find a diplomatic solution to Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports, but vowed to reciprocate like-for-like if they take effect on August 1.

Brazil had originally been slated for just the baseline 10% levy, but Trump cited not just trade practices but the treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro, who was friendly with Trump when they were both in office, is on trial on charges of plotting a coup to stop current President Lula da Silva from taking office in January 2023.

The real dropped as much as 2.8% for the first time since June 6. It was last down 0.56% to 5.5433 per dollar.

With the exception of Brazil, Trump's latest batch of letters to trade partners contained tariff rates close to those already proposed in his original "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2, as was the case with other letters this week.

Bitcoin rallied to another all-time high helped by rising demand from institutional investors as well as Trump's crypto-friendly policies.

The world's largest cryptocurrency BTC= rose to a fresh record high of $113,820.49 on the session. It is now up about 21% this year.

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo. Editing by Jamie Freed, Mark Potter, Andrew Heavens and Chizu Nomiyama )

The dollar index strengthened slightly on Thursday, helped by higher U.S. Treasury yields as the market digested the recent swirl of tariff events. U.S. jobless cliams fell unexpectedly in the latest week while continuing claims rose less than forecast, though were still at their highest level since November 2021, suggesting those who lose a job are taking longer to find a new position. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his belief the central bank could cut interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said the time to ease is nearing, adding that she was thinking about cuts during the fall. Daily said two cuts were on the table this year and that she did not expect very persistent inflation impact from tariffs.

St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said it could be the end of this year or early into 2026 before it is clear how much impact rising import tariffs will have on inflation, sketching out one of the reasons Fed policymakers are taking a wait-and-see approach to cutting interest rates. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he thought tariffs were inflationary -- though it won't all come in at once -- and that U.S. migration policies and the budget deficit were also inflationary. EUR/USD's technical struggles continued, USD/JPY consolidated, GBP/USD slid toward the lower end of its weekly range and AUD/USD rallied above the 10-DMA.

After coming off their earlier highs, U.S. Treasury yields were clinging to small gains in most maturities -- though down on long bonds -- while the 2s-10s curve flattened slightly.

The S&P 500 rose 0.33% by New York afternoon trade.

WTI fell 2.24% as investors weighed the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on global economic growth.

Copper rallied 2.23% after Trump said a 50% tariff would be imposed from Aug. 1

Gold was up 0.19%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.26%, USD/JPY -0.05%, GBP/USD -0.13%, AUD/USD +0.75%, DXY +0.10%, EUR/JPY -0.33%, GBP/JPY -0.16%, AUD/JPY +0.72%.(Burton Frierson)

(Corrects link in bullet 4)

• Sterling soft in NY afternoon, -0.12% at 1.3571, Thursday range 1.3619-1.3534

• Pair under pressure after below-f/c IJC data hints at U.S. economic resilience; yields rise

• Despite drubbing, pair remains above trend lows near minor Fib support by 1.3533

• Choppy waters ahead for sterling

• Traders thirst for meaningful data that will inform on Fed, BoE rate policy

• LSEG's IRPR sees UK-U.S. rate on simialr path into YE 2025; lower Fed rates in 2026

• GBP$ supt 1.3528 Jul 8 daily low, 1.3478 rsing 55-DMA, 1.3447 daily cloud top

• Res 1.3620 Wednesday high, 1.3647 falling 10-DMA, 1.3750 upper 30-d Bolli

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole notes that demand for short-USD hedges has picked up, but the cost of FX hedging remains historically high — shaping how investors choose to hedge exposure, and which currencies could benefit most.

Key Points:

Hedging Demand Up:

• Evidence shows growing use of FX options for USD downside hedging.

• Elevated US policy risks and macro uncertainty keep investors seeking ways to hedge USD exposure.

Hedging Costs Still High:

• Despite increased demand, US hedging costs for futures and forwards remain high, making some traditional hedging methods less attractive.

• This could limit the extent of broad hedge ratio adjustments in portfolios with large USD asset exposure.

Valuation Matters:

• The EUR looks expensive relative to Credit Agricole’s valuation models — this could dampen the appeal of EUR hedges, as investors weigh the cost of hedging vs. the perceived upside.

• The JPY remains undervalued on their metrics, and could therefore attract more hedging flows as a relatively cheap hedge for USD or broader risk.

Conclusion:
Hedging activity is rising but still selective, driven by high costs and valuation considerations.

• EUR: Expensive levels may limit new inflows for hedging.

• JPY: Undervalued status could encourage continued demand for yen hedges, especially amid risk-off moves or safe haven demand.

Positioning Insight:

Short-USD bias via options likely persists.
JPY could outperform as the ‘hedge currency of choice’ if global macro risks flare up again.
EUR upside may be capped near-term by valuation constraints and costly hedging mechanics.

• Eikon search string for individual stock moves: [STXBZ]

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Wall Street looked set for a subdued start on Thursday, taking a breather after Nvidia's $4 trillion sprint, while airline stocks jumped following Delta's upbeat forecast. [.N] At 11:30 EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.58% at 44,715.23. The S&P 500 was up 0.21% at 6,276.57, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.09% at 20,593.34. The top three S&P 500 percentage gainers:

• United Airlines Holdings Inc , up 12.6%

• Delta Air Lines Inc , up 12.5%

• Albemarle Corp , up 7.3% The top three S&P 500 percentage losers:

• Autodesk Inc , down 7.2%

• Axon Enterprise Inc , down 6.6%

• PTC Inc , down 6.2% The top three NYSE percentage gainers:

• BIT Mining Ltd , up 105.3%

• MP Materials Corp , up 44.1%

• WK Kellogg Co , up 30.7% The top three NYSE percentage losers:

• Methode Electronics Inc , down 23.2%

• Modine Manufacturing Co , down 10.4%

• Bloom Energy Corp , down 9.8% The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers:

• Above Food Ingredients Inc , up 388.8%

• DallasNews Corp , up 216.9%

• Mingteng International Corp Inc , up 85.2% The top three Nasdaq percentage losers:

• Mereo BioPharma Group PLC , down 33.8%

• CURRENC Group Inc , down 29.8%

• Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc , down 26.0%

• WK Kellogg Co : BUZZ - Up on $3 billion buyout deal from Italy's Ferrero

• Freeport-McMoRan Inc : BUZZ - Rises; Trump to impose 50% tariff on copper

• Oracle Corp :

• Microsoft Corp :

• Workday Inc : BUZZ - Piper Sandler moves stir cloud stocks: Oracle up, Workday down

• Newmont Corp :

• Barrick Mining Corp :

• Gold Fields Ltd :

• Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd : BUZZ - Gold miners gain as bullion prices edge higher on US dollar weakness

• MP Materials Corp : BUZZ - Surges on defense deal to boost US rare earth magnet supply

• CVS Health Corp : BUZZ - Leerink raises CVS Health's PT on steady growth, strong pharmacy and insurance outlook

• Soleno Therapeutics Inc : BUZZ - Falls after $200 million stock sale priced

• Delta Air Lines Inc : BUZZ - Up on strong 2025 profit forecast

• Mobileye Global Inc : BUZZ - Drops after Intel's share sale of about $925 mln priced

• BIT Mining Ltd : BUZZ - Nearly triples on solana pivot

• Roku Inc : BUZZ - Rises after KeyBanc upgrades to 'overweight'

• Coinbase Global Inc : BUZZ - Wainwright double downgrades Coinbase on valuation concerns

• Carlyle Group Inc : BUZZ - Gains after Citi upgrades rating to 'buy' on fundraising momentum

• Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc : BUZZ - Rises after TD Cowen's upgrades to 'buy'

• Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc : BUZZ - Dips after boosted $175 mln equity raise

• Conagra Brands Inc : BUZZ - Falls on lower-than-expected annual profit forecast

• Pacira BioSciences Inc : BUZZ - Falls after co cuts jobs amid manufacturing upgrade

• Nucor Corp : BUZZ - Inches up after BMO raises PT on strong growth outlook

• FuelCell Energy Inc : BUZZ - Gains on tie-up with Inuverse for data center development in South Korea

• Spotify Inc : BUZZ - TD Cowen flags Spotify's value being higher than recording and publishing cos

• Estee Lauder Companies Inc : BUZZ - Rises after BofA's 'buy' rating and Street-high PT

• Moderna Inc : BUZZ - Climbs on full FDA nod for COVID shot in children 6 months or older

• Passage Bio Inc : BUZZ - Falls after reverse stock split

• Rio Tinto PLC :

• BHP Group Ltd :

• Southern Copper Corp :

• Freeport-McMoRan Inc : BUZZ - Copper miners up as red metal prices bounces after Trump sets a new tariff deadline

• Advanced Micro Devices Inc : BUZZ - Rises after HSBC upgrades to 'buy'

• J B Hunt Transport Services Inc : BUZZ - BofA lifts J B Hunt PT on expected fleet growth

• Lockheed Martin Corp : BUZZ - Falls after TD Cowen cuts to 'hold' as F-35 uncertainty looms

• Altimmune Inc : BUZZ - Falls after Goldman resumes coverage with "sell", citing competition

• GE Vernova Inc : BUZZ - Seaport Research Partners initiates coverage on GE Vernova with 'buy'

• Helen of Troy Ltd : BUZZ - Plunges to lowest since 2009 after dour results, forecast

• DallasNews Corp : BUZZ - Soar 200% on go-private deal with Hearst

• Caterpillar Inc : BUZZ - Citi raises Caterpillar PT on long-term growth potential

• Synchrony Financial : BUZZ - Hits record high

Index RIC Index name Percent change %

S&P 500 0.21

S&P 500 Information -0.24

Technology

S&P 500 Utilities 0.26

S&P 500 Consumer 0.78

Discretionary

S&P 500 Materials 0.84

S&P 500 Industrials 0.61

S&P 500 Communication -0.69

Services (Sector)

S&P 500 Financials 0.55

S&P 500 Real Estate 0.56

S&P 500 Health Care 1.02

S&P 500 Consumer 0.1

Staples

S&P 500 Energy 0.55

(Compiled by Rajarshi Roy and Apratim Sarkar)

Synopsis:

RBC notes that EUR/USD has rallied strongly—up 13% year-to-date—and while the fundamental optimism for the Euro remains valid, the pair looks technically stretched in the short term.

Key Points:

Strong Year-to-Date Performance:
EUR/USD has been the go-to FX expression for short USD positions, supported by:

• Fiscal tailwinds in Europe,

• Expectations that European investors may rotate out of US assets,

• A lower cost of USD hedging as the Fed eventually cuts rates.

Positioning & Sentiment:

• EUR remains crowded: Long EUR is the top play for USD bears.

• FX options show short-term risk reversals flipping to favor puts, indicating a shift toward hedging near-term downside.

• Longer-term options still favor upside, showing the medium-term bullish view remains intact.

Trade Deal Nuances:

• Markets are priced for near-perfection on EU-US trade negotiations.

• Trump’s delay on pharmaceutical tariffs reduces immediate export risks but adds medium-term uncertainty.

Technical Setup:

• Technicals show EUR/USD overbought and ripe for a short-term pullback.

• RBC highlights 1.1573 as a key level:
  📍 Corrections towards 1.1573 are likely to attract dip buyers, aligning with the broader uptrend.

Conclusion:

➡️ Strategic View: Stay long EUR/USD over the medium term; the fiscal and portfolio rotation stories remain supportive.
➡️ Tactical View: Wait for pullbacks towards 1.1573 to re-establish longs at better levels.
➡️ Risk: A failure to secure a trade deal or more hawkish Fed repricing could amplify short-term downside

• Ether rallied 2737.74-2821.94, hit a fresh 1-month high before dipping slightly

• The 50% Fibo of the Dec. to April decline was cleared again with today's rally

• Ether traded up 1.58% in early NY action and techs remained bullish

• Daily, monthly RSIs rising & not overbought, implies upward momentum remains

• June 12 daily high (2831.36), June monthly high (2878.13) are resistance

• Break of the latter brings the 61.8% Fibo of Dec. to April (3068.65) drop into focus
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Société Générale highlights how EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD are behaving differently amid diverging macro drivers: the yen is yield-tracking again, the euro is more growth-sensitive, and the AUD still looks well-positioned as commodity tensions persist.

Key Points:

EUR/USD:

• Unlike USD/JPY, EUR/USD has been struggling to re-align with rate differentials and is instead more tied to the growth outlook.

• The consensus forecast growth gap between the US and Eurozone is holding steady at just 0.5% for 2025/2026, half the historical post-2010 average.

• The path to a stronger EUR hinges on longer-term optimism about Eurozone growth — but near-term, there’s little new to get excited about.

USD/JPY:

• The yen has reverted to its typical role as a yield-tracking currency, driven by US-Japan rate spreads.

• No major surprises are pushing USD/JPY out of its range for now.

AUD/USD:

• SocGen prefers the AUD at the margin to NOK among commodity currencies.

• Both NOK and AUD benefit from commodity market tailwinds, but the AUD stands out given the global competition for natural resources.

• Australian growth forecasts have already been revised lower, creating scope for positive surprises if domestic data stabilizes or improves.

Conclusion:

SocGen remains cautious on near-term EUR/USD upside, seeing it as stuck without a fresh growth boost.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY trades predictably with yields, and AUD/USD is favored given potential for upside surprises in Australian data and supportive commodity trends.

Positioning takeaway:
EUR/USD: Neutral-to-cautious.
USD/JPY: Yield-driven, no big shifts.
AUD/USD: Modest bullish bias — still a buy on dips versus peers like NOK.

Synopsis:

Bank of America uses a time zone framework to examine the USD’s outlook for H2 2025, arguing that while the dollar has seen its worst start to a year since 1973, its downside from here could be more limited, especially during US trading hours.

Key Points:

US Trading Hours vs. Fed Pricing:

• Cumulative USD returns during US hours still have a +71% correlation with Fed rates pricing in 2025.

• With the Fed expected to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year, this should moderately support the USD in US hours.

Asia-Based Selling May Pause:

• Asia-based investors were the biggest USD sellers so far in 2025.

• But after unwinding the cumulative long USD returns of the past two years, USD price action in Asia hours has turned flat.

• Investors in the Asia time zone may now wait for new bearish catalysts elsewhere before pushing the USD lower.

Europe Has Room for USD Weakness — But Needs Equities:

• USD downside in European hours depends on global equities outperforming US equities.

• After non-US equities outperformed in Q1, US equities regained leadership in Q2.

• Unless this reverses, European FX investors may lack conviction to drive further USD selling.

Hedging Incentives Decline:

• Foreign investors have less incentive to raise FX hedges on US assets given how much the USD has already depreciated this year.

Conclusion:

BofA’s time zone framework suggests the USD’s slide may slow in H2 2025, especially during US hours, as stable Fed policy removes a key catalyst for further losses. Asian flows may stay sidelined unless new global USD-negative catalysts emerge. The wildcard: global vs. US equity performance, which could drive fresh dollar weakness in European hours if the US stock market falters.

Bottom line: Don’t expect the same aggressive USD selling pace — but a selective bearish bias remains if global risk assets outperform.

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/3-pm London

• 1.1650 (3.7BLN), 1.1685-90 (681M), 1.1700 (1.65BLN)

• 1.1710-20 (705M), 1.1735-40 (1.5BLN), 1.1745-55 (659M)

• 1.1760-70 (737M), 1.1800-05 (2.4BLN), 1.1840-50 (452M)

• 1.1885-90 (495M), 1.1900-10 (1.23BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has seen a 145.76-146.47 range, on Thursday, EBS data shows

• ex-MOF: Japan unlikely to face US pressure to strengthen yen

• Setbacks should be limited by cloud that spans 144.79-145.55

• 30, 60-day log correlations between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY remains high

• Japan's wholesale inflation slows, relieves rate-hike pressure

• Flow data: Japanese good buyers of foreign bonds in June

Daily Chart:


Correlation Chart: