• FX traders keep a lid on USD/JPY risking its demise nL1N2IC0NN

• Bull trap: Tuesday saw break of 104.67 Fibo, but it failed to close above

• 104.67 Fibo is a 50% retrace 105.68 to 103.66 November setback

• That increases the odds for a deeper drop to Nov's 103.18 low

• The tenkan and kijun lines are negative aligned, bearish outlook

• Downside risk will be lifted only with a close above the 104.67 Fibo

• Trader TGM2336. EUR/JPY range has been 123.91-124.42 on the EBS

TD Research maintains a bullish bias on Gold targeting $2000 over the medium-term.

"Gold prices remain under pressure. The downward adjustment brings the yellow metal below technical support at around $1,795/oz, as the current rate and macro expectations drive physical metal to London to make available for lending and as ETF material from dispositions pushes out GOFO rates higher. However, once the metal from recent dispositions gets absorbed, the big picture is still very conducive to $2,000+ gold," TD notes. 

"Meanwhile, the second wave of covid-19 infections will ravage the economy, assuring that US and indeed global economic activity is below potential for a prolonged period. This implies that the Fed will be forced to continue very simulative policies for a prolonged period, which the market seems to be betting against in recent days. As other economies around the world also start to do better in absolute terms and relative to the US, USD will likely trend lower should trend lower. A weaker USD has traditionally been gold positive," TD adds. 

• EUR/USD's chart is looking increasingly bullish nL1N2IC0IJ

• Scope grows for gains towards the 2020 1.2014 peak posted in Sept

• EUR/USD was recently propped up by the thick 1.1766-1.1813 daily cloud

• Bullish as it has broken Nov 1.1920 high on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday

• Positive alignment of tenkan and kijun lines adds to underlying upside bias

• We are looking get long on near-term dips to 1.1850

• EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2IB0BM

Credit Suisse likes buying NZD/USD on dips over the coming weeks.

"Our bullish stance on NZD, which is up 6% in November, has been based on the idea that the NZ rate outlook will re-price higher as the pandemic story fades and as political focus moves more singularly onto house prices," CS notes. 

"Although NZDUSD has now reached our initial target and now meets resistance around 0.70, the broad thrust of the political economy in New Zealand combined with our constructive views on global re-opening suggest “buy dips” view is still appropriate," CS adds. 

The final output of this month-end fixing model point to USD selling into today's fix, according to data Credit Agricole Research. 

"Overall, the moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggests month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be strong USD selling across the board," CACIB notes. 

"Our corporate flow model is pointing to EUR/USD buying at the end of the month," CACIB adds. 

The euro looks free to rise against a fragile dollar as trading volumes dip, caused by the absence of the big New York players over Thanksgiving and the underlying bullish EUR/USD chart.

EUR/USD's scope is for gains towards the 2020 1.2014 peak posted in September.
EUR/USD was recently propped up by the thick 1.1766-1.1813 daily cloud and has subsequently broke above the November 1.1920 peak on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
The positive alignment of the tenkan and kijun lines adds to underlying upside bias.

Meanwhile, medium-term downward pressure has increased on the dollar amid expectations that a calmer White House under President-elect Joe Biden will boost world commerce and monetary policy will remain easy -- solid reasons to expect investors to exit the dollar into the New Year nL1N2IB0KW.
A weakening dollar will help boost EUR/USD.

The European Central Bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, warned on Thursday against tolerating low inflation as more stimulus looms nL8N2IC3IH.
Related nL1N2IC0NN

For more click on FXBUZ

• Cable elicited support near 1.3300 after extending south from 1.3381

• Drop to threaten 1.3300 fuelled by concerns about EU-UK trade talks

• 1.3381 was early Ldn high, before news from Barnier's briefing to EU envoys

• See: nL8N2ID1LS. EU and UK say big differences remain nL1N2ID0DP

• Prior demand around 1.3300 propped GBP/USD on Wednesday and Tuesday

• EU to offer UK fish deal in bid to break Brexit deadlock - RTE nS8N2HZ0AU

• FX traders keep a lid on USD/JPY risking its demise nL1N2IC0NN

• EBS flow data shows traders exiting USD/JPY most of this week

• USD/JPY outlook bearish as the "bull trap" still weighs nL1N2IC0DJ

• USD/JPY has dropped from 104.27 to 103.90 Friday, according to EBS prices

• Thin on lack of participation post-US Thanksgiving, volume looks to be low

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY 30/60-day correlations remain well above +0.50

• So a USD/JPY drop will likely drag EUR/JPY with it

• Last four days EUR/USD has set a higher daily low

• This bullish trend began at an elevated point within 2020's uptrend

• Nov 23 low 1.1800, Nov 24 low 1.1838, Nov 25 1.1882, Nov 26 1.1885

• Today Nov 27 the low so far is 1.1908 EBS

• Not only extends trend but also represents change of big figure

• Stability at this point would suggest real money supply is waning

• Corp, option, reserves operations may have been sated. Less resistance

• In contrast specs who have reduced longs will react to a break over 1.20

• 
  

• AUD/USD reaches 0.7386 after extending north from 0.7354 (Asian session low)

• 0.7386 is the highest level since Sept 1 (0.7413 was two-year high that day)

• Ascent to 0.7386 fuelled by rise in risk appetite: copper up to 7-year high

• See: nL1N2ID06C. AUD/USD offers are tipped ahead of 0.74

• 0.7354 was also Thursday's low (0.7350 is a former key resistance level)

• China to impose temporary anti-dumping measures on Aussie wine nL1N2ID01L

• Market looks set to idle into the weekend with bull continuation potential

• Uptrend from Nov 12 could benefit from a period of gain consolidation

• New trend high Thurs at 1.3399: 30DMA upper Bolli above at 1.3439

• Big levels-targets at 1.3481 and 1.3516, 2020 high and Dec 2019 peak

• Thurs 1.3322 low potential tipping point but backed by 10DMA at 1.3307

• Weekly action strong and monthlies break clear inside Ichimoku cloud

• We offer by 1.3475 for a 1.3481 rejection: tight stop likely

  
  

• Cloud base to cloud top on mthly chart and pick up in 14-mth bull momentum

• So far ignoring a January 2021 twist down at 1.1471-91

• Weeklies set to close above previous 1.1920 peak: eyes 2020 high at 1.2014

• Dailies tracking 30DMA upper Bolli, 1.1961 today

• Very much a buy on dips market to the low 1.18s

• Aggressive accounts might consider value at the 10DMA, 1.1885

  
  

• EUR/USD opened Asia unchanged around 1.1915 after a whippy London session

• The Thanksgiving holiday in the US led to a very quiet Asian session

• EUR/USD spent most of morning trading either side of 1.1910, range 1.1908-15

• Support is found at 1.1875/85 where daily lows and the 10-day MA converge

• Break below 1.1870 would ease upward pressure and target 21-day MA @ 1.1820

• There are sellers ahead of 1.1950 - but no technical resistance until 1.2014

• Market is long EUR/USD so profit taking could exaggerate fall in thin market

• For more click on FXBUZ

• AUD/USD opened 0.10% lower at 0.7357 after idling during US Thanksgiving

• It traded between 0.7354-63 for most of the morning with light volumes

• Unfazed by China's temporary anti-dumping measures on Aus wine nL1N2ID01L

• Resistance has formed ahead of 0.7375 where sellers are tipped

• A break above 0.7380 targets the 2020 high at 0.7413

• Support is found around 0.7325 where hourly lows and 10-day MA converge

• Sentiment remains bullish with key commodities in heavy demand nL1N2IC0HQ

• For more click on FXBUZ

• AUD/USD opens Asia 0.10% lower after topping out at 0.7374

• Holiday impacted equity markets are slightly lower with E-minis down 0.26%

• AUD/USD has failed repeatedly in the 0.7370/75 window where sellers tipped

• AUD/USD dips limited, as Lon copper gained 1.52% to fresh 7-year high

• Support is found around 0.7325 where hourly support and 10-day MA converge

• Barring he unexpected, it should be a quiet session in Asia

• For more click on FXBUZ

• EUR/USD opens unchanged at 1.1910/15 after trading 1.1885/1.1941 range

• Support at 1.1975/85 where 10-day MA and double-bottom converge

• Sellers tipped ahead of 1.1950 with next resistance at 2020 high at 1.2014

• Sentiment remains bullish and market is trading from the long side

• Thin market could leave EUR/USD vulnerable if there is profit-taking

• For more click on FXBUZ

• Dollar chart's outlook darkens nL1N2IB0KW

• FX traders exiting USD/JPY all week EBS flow data shows nL1N2IC0FY

• That is keeping the lid on USD/JPY risking its demise nL1N2IC0NN

• USD/JPY has seen a 104.22-44 range on Thursday, according to EBS prices

• USD/JPY outlook bearish as the recent "bull trap" weighs nL1N2IC0DJ

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY 30/60-day correlations remain well above +0.50

• If USD/JPY drops, EUR/JPY will likely be dragged down with it

• Sell orders ahead of 1.34 have kept a lid on cable through the week-to-date

• 1.3399, 1.3394, 1.3380 and 1.3396 = Thursday/Wednesday/Tuesday/Monday highs

• A Brexit deal breakthrough could propel GBP/USD through 1.34 (Sept 2 high)

• GBP shorts will be rewarded if EU and UK fail to agree a deal nL1N2IC0HJ

• IMM speculators have been net short GBP since late September nL1N2I90B2

• Sunak says UK public finances are on "unsustainable" path nL8N2IC1G3

• U.S. holiday suppresses activity and EUR/USD slips away from a major level

• EUR/USD traders broadly hope pair tests 2020 high at 1.2014 soon

• Today EUR/USD opened 1.1926 in Europe, traded 1.1941 early then dipped

• Pair reached a 1.1885 low before climbing to 1.1900

• Low represents a dip into hourly Ichimoku cloud, pair back above top 1.1895

• Hourly cloud base 1.1865 and 200-HMA at 1.1870 offer support below

• Daily Ichimoku cloud 1.1813-1.1766 and 100-DMA 1.1762 are strong support

• Is EUR/USD rallying at the wrong time? nL1N2IC0EJ

  
  

• Cable slid to 1.3342 after its latest failure to break 1.3400 (Sept 2 high)

• 1.3400 is an option expiry and mooted option barrier level nL1N2IC0BM

• Brexit uncertainty is helping to keep GBP/USD below 1.34 nS8N2HC0AS

• More: nL8N2IC1AC. British firms rush to stockpile goods nL8N2IC2K1

• 1.3300 is a support point (1.3306 was Wednesday low; 1.3294 was Tuesday low)

• Share of UK workers on furlough at highest since June nL8N2IC2C3

• AUD/USD FX options place more bets on 0.7400-0.7500 targets

• However, overall demand still light and implied volatility near crisis lows

• Suggests further gains deemed likely to remain a grind and lack volatility

• AUD/USD struggles mid 73's, but still new high since 1 Sept peak at 0.7413

• Above 0.7413 opens 76.4% Fibo retrace of 0.8136-0.5510 drop at 0.7516

• Break there opens full retrace, so will attract more interest if reached

• Related comment nL1N2I90J6

  
  

  
  

• AUD/USD elicited support ahead of 0.7350 after retreating from 0.7374

• 0.7374 = fractionally fresh 12-week peak (at 0749GMT)

• 0.7350 is a former resistance level (which was vaulted on Tuesday)

• Recent gains for risk-sensitive AUD fuelled by rise in risk appetite

• Copper near 7-year high nL1N2IC04Z. Nikkei hits 29-year high nL1N2IC08S

• 0.7325 (Wednesday's low) and 0.7300 are AUD/USD support points below 0.7350

EUR/USD is rallying when traders would usually be selling or thinking about paring risk, which for EUR/USD also means selling.
There's good reason to think the pair will go up; there's also good reason to be cautious about a rally this year. nL1N2IC0C8

EUR/USD is within 1% of 2020's high, an ideal point at which to take profit.
And with traders short of around $20 billion, there's a lot of profit to take.

The European Central Bank is due to ease on Dec.
10, and a strong euro will affect the decision, because euro strength suppresses inflation.
Since ECB beefed up bond buying in June, inflation has dropped from 0.3% year-on-year to -0.3%.
EUR/USD has risen around 6%.
It will take a great deal of stimulus to push inflation into positive territory, more to meet the ECB's 2% inflation target.

Risk reward suits sellers;, EUR/USD is 0.7% below the peak of a four-month range and roughly 3% above the base.

For more click on FXBUZ

• Major trendline from 2007 and 2014 highs now at 1.3407

• Adding resistance to alleged 1.3400 FX option barriers/defence

• Monday's high 1.3396, peaked 1.3399 so far today

• Weak USD limits setbacks, but more longs might book if resistance holds

• Buying dips still favoured on any pull back, for eventual break higher

• Bigger barriers/resistance surround 1.3500 - Dec 2019 peak 1.3516