• GBP/USD steady in Asia as markets brace for key risk events

• Warsh's keynote address Fri, Aug 31-Sep 1 G20 finance meeting in focus

• Fed chair speaks at 1400 GMT(10AM NYT),traders seek clarity on rates outlook

• Investors await clues on how Fed plans to tackle sticky U.S. inflation

• Uncertainty on future policy path risks further damage to Fed credibility

• Support 1.3550-55, 1.3525-30, resistance 1.3620-25, 1.3645-50, 1.3675

• Ranges: Thursday 1.3571-1.3602, Asia 1.3589-1.3597
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Fri in subdued trading as markets eye Jackson Hole Symposium

• AUD still pressing against crucial 0.7200 technical resistance zone

• Challenge of 0.72825 50-month high likely amid building RBA hike bets

• Futures pricing now implies 58.5% probability of RBA 25 bps hike in Sep

• Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole Fri looms as pivotal event Fri

• Fed officials Schmid, Goolsbee, & Hammack issue warnings on U.S. inflation

• Range Asia 0.71855-0.7200 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7200 0.7277-82
AUD Weekly 52-WMA


AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY doesn't look to be going anywhere soon, another quiet Asia day?

• USD/JPY 159.33-39 EBS, between daily Ichimoku tenkan/kijun at 158.90/159.57

• Also between wider 200/100-DMAs at 158.41/159.99, below 160.63-162.51 cloud

• Again heading towards 159.18-24 hourly Ichi cloud, recently good support

• Option expiries today 158.00-50 $2.4 bln, some at 159.50, above from 160.50

• Options themselves do not seem to be a factor today

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials see 2s @251 bps, 10s heavy @175 bps

• Little in way of news from Jackson Hole, some Fed off'ls hawkish, Sept hike?

• US economic data out yesterday did little to stir FX

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed-speak , , , on G20
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD flat Fri as traders eye key market moving events over coming days

• Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole Fri looms as critical focal point

• RBNZ monetary policy meeting outcome due Wed, 25 bps hike widely anticipated

• Fed officials Schmid, Goolsbee, & Hammack all warning on U.S. inflation

• NZD targeting break above 0.5990-95, expect stop-loss buying above

• Range NZ 0.59485-52, support 0.5831 0.5762, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.5% from Thur 0.7160 low with pressure mounting on RBA

• Futures pricing implies Sep RBA hike more likely than not, probability 56.3%

• AUD 0.7200 resistance holding, but multiple approaches wearing sellers down

• 0.72825 50-month high a very realistic target with scant resistance above

• Fed officials Schmid, Goolsbee, & Hammack issue warnings on U.S. inflation

• Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole Fri looming as pivotal event Fri

• Overnight range 0.7175-98 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7200 0.7277-82
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ING Research discusses RBA rate outlook and AUD/USD targets.

"This morning, Australia reported very strong household spending data for July (7% YoY), further helping the case for more tightening. However, our macro team is still leaning towards a prolonged hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but we admit the hawkish risks have increased," ING notes.

"Markets are pricing in 12bp for the 29 September meeting, and we expect that pricing to be unwound, limiting AUD gains for now. Our view on AUD/USD remains upbeat into year-end with a 0.730 target, but that’s relying on our dovish Fed call, which should have a net-positive impact on the pair even if a dovish repricing in the AUD curve happens," ING adds.

• GBP$ a tad soft in NY afternoon trade, -0.05% at 1.3591; NorAm range 1.3602-1.3571

• USD broadly mixed among majors near flat ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole event

• Fed's Warsh speaks at 10AM NYT; given his bent for no guidance a likely non-event

• LSEG's IRPR indicating 1-25bp hike by Fed, BoE in 2026; note oil steady in $80/bbl

• High oil may hint that U.S., UK inflation likely to remain abv target for longer

• GBP$ res 1.3602 Thursday high, 1.3655 daily high Aug 21, 1.3688 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3571 Thurs low, 1.3548 23.6% Fib of 1.3140-1.3675, 1.3519 Aug 18 low

Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan discusses the USD outlook amid the USD debasement theme.

"Given recent interventionist moves into Yen and Treasury markets, the Dollar Debasement, aka 'Sell America' theme has seemingly returned. This theme has implications for bond yields, FX, and Equities. A dovish Fed is a key missing ingredient, and we would also flag that this theme may not have the same strength or duration as previously witnessed," JPM notes.

"In FX, the move in the USD, proxied by DXY, has been a -2.6% decline, dragging the index below the 100-level. The move appears mostly played out as our JPM FX Strategy team flag that they would not chase the move lower from current levels. In USD/JPY, it has moved below the 160 level that continues to act as a catalyst for intervention and may see additional pressure from increasing BOJ rate hike expectations," JPM adds.

• EUR flat in NY trade, dips find support from 200-hour MAs at 1.1640-48

• Price action remains tepid and likely to stay that way until Fed Chair Warsh's JH speech on Friday

• With Warsh inclined to avoid forward guidance, directional cues may be limited

• Near-term playbook continues to lean towards consolidation than a trend

• Resistance sits at 1.1700-10, with additional hurdles at 1.1790-1.1800

• Aside from the 1.1640-48 MA cluster, deeper support lies at 1.1615-30
EURUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bullish and long Gold position.

"Gold has emerged as one of the key beneficiaries from the USD sell-off triggered by the US Treasury’s recent attempts to curb the rise of long- dated UST yields. These efforts included an FX intervention in support of the JPY – which among other things was meant to keep Japanese policy rates low and Japanese investors invested in USTs. We also got signals that the US Treasury would buy long-dated bonds with: (1) the proceeds from sales of short-dated US paper (‘Operation Treasury twist’); or (2) the funds from its account at the Fed (TGA)," CACIB notes.

"We remain long XAU/USD as a trade idea and continue to forecast gold to appreciate to USD5000 by the end of year & extend its gains in 2027," CACIB adds.

• GBP/USD meets headwind around 1.3600 after lift from 1.3571

• 1.3571 was London morning low, and the lowest level since August 19

• More offers may be parked circa 1.3619 (August 21 low)

• 1.3618 was low before hotter than expected U.S. PCE data Wednesday

• Support points below 1.3571 include 1.3548 and 1.3525

• Fed Chair Warsh to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday, at 1400 GMT

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses its latest BoJ rate outlook.

"Our economists revised their expected policy path to include hikes in September, January, and July for a terminal rate of 1.75%," GS notes.

"Following through with a September hike should avoid some of the nearer-term pressures on JPY and JGBs, but the revised path as a whole is not far from current pricing, which we think would still imply an onus on other efforts (such as encouraging repatriation) to help stem more sustained depreciation pressures on the Yen," GS adds.

Bank of America Global Research summarizes the signals from its month-end fixing model which points to lower GBP/USD and lower EUR/USD into this month's fix.

"We estimate FX rebalancing needs based on a conventional 60/40 portfolio of global equities & bonds. 

The underperformance of USD vs GBP & EUR denominated assets over August suggests  rebalancing out of GBP (-1.3σ) and EUR (-0.6σ) and into USD," BofA notes.

Aug 27 (Reuters) - FX traders can use a simple option to cover near-term USD/JPY gains, as technical signals point to gains.

USD/JPY remains buoyant after finding support last week at the 158.03 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retrace of the 155.20-159.78 (EBS) rise. There is scope for an eventual break above the July 18 159.78 peak, once the kijun line at 159.60 - the midpoint of the last 26 trading sessions - is broken. Earlier on Thursday, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said timely rate hikes would help avoid an inflation spike that could force abrupt tightening later, but stopped short of signalling an imminent rate hike. USD/JPY has steadily drifted higher since FX traders wanting to insure against a USD/JPY rise could buy a one-week 159.60 USD call option at a cost of 38 pips, priced with spot at 159.42. Profit potential is unlimited if spot is above the 159.98 break-even point at the Sept. 3 expiry. Losses are limited to the 38 pips premium paid.
Fenics Pricing Grid


Daily Chart


(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen barely moves after BOJ comments on possible rate hikes

• BOJ deputy governor Himino calls for 'timely' rate hike

• Remarks keep alive chance of September rate hike

• USD/JPY has seen a steady 159.11-159.49 range, on Thursday, EBS data shows

• Spot underpinned by a the 158.03 Fibo, expect eventual gains

• 158.03 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 155.20-159.78 rise

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/CHF is retesting the familiar 0.9395-0.9400 hurdle after retracing most of the Aug 19 drop

• As previously flagged, the still-favourable carry backdrop, makes sustained CHF upside unlikely to last

• With positioning now much cleaner, there is a room for a larger rise in EUR/CHF

• A break above the YTD high at 0.9410 would open the door for a move towards 0.9450

• That said, a better expression for CHF downside could be against AUD, which is already trading at a fresh YTD high
EURCHF daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• FX options expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Thursday August 27

• ​EUR/USD: 1.1400-1.1405 (3.035B), 1.1410-1.1415 (2.073B), 1.1420-1.1425 (370M), 1.1430-1.1435 (874M), 1.1465-1.1470 (517M), 1.1480-1.1485 (495M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1490 (490M), 1.1500 (1.432B), 1.1525-1.1530 (1.918B), 1.1535-1.1540 (822M), 1.1545-1.1550 (1.434B), 1.1570-1.1575 (305M), 1.1580-1.1585 (342M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1595-1.1600 (2.347B), 1.1630 (527M), 1.1640-1.1645 (1.295B), 1.1650-1.1655 (836M), 1.1660-1.1665 (246M), 1.1670-1.1675 (215M), 1.1680-1.1685 (325M)

• EUR/USD: 1.1690-1.1695 (1.674B), 1.1700-1.1705 (1.236B), 1.1725 (287M), 1.1740 (406M), 1.1750-1.1755 (359M), 1.1840-1.1845 (265M)

• USD/JPY: 157.25 (300M), 158.00-158.05 (744M), 158.18-158.21 (1.228B), 158.40-158.45 (443M), 158.90 (619M), 159.00 (210M), 159.15-159.20 (366M)

• USD/JPY: 159.49-159.50 (390M), 160.00 (524M), 160.27-160.30 (376M), 160.50 (263M), 160.86-160.91 (248M), 160.95-161.00 (506M), 161.50 (304M)

• USD/JPY: 161.60 (1.057B), 162.00 (322M), 162.20-162.25 (451M), 162.30-162.35 (400M), 162.50 (702M), 163.00 (431M), 163.20-163.25 (522M), 163.26-163.31 (906M)

• EUR/JPY: 182.00 (210M), 183.00 (480M), 183.80-183.85 (390M), 185.00 (710M), 187.85 (454M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3090 (251M), 1.3550 (841M), 1.3705-1.3710 (418M). EUR/GBP: 0.8545-0.8550 (207M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6835-0.6840 (225M), 0.6850-0.6855 (381M), 0.6900 (776M), 0.6920-0.6925 (255M), 0.6965-0.6970 (473M), 0.6995-0.7000 (377M), 0.7035-0.7040 (509M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7100 (1.348B), 0.7125-0.7130 (273M), 0.7200 (204M). NZD/USD: 0.5670 (200M), 0.5750 (228M), 0.5850-0.5855 (342M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3300 (320M), 1.4085-1.4095 (306M)

• USD/ZAR: 17.8000 (892M)
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 13 pip range thus far Thursday; 0.7173-0.7186

• The top of that range is three pips shy of Wednesday's 12-week high

• Wednesday peak was scaled on hotter than expected Australian inflation data

• 0.71645 was NY session low Wednesday, after hotter than expected U.S. PCE data

• Australia household spending extends solid run in July, adding to RBA hike risk

• NAB tips RBA hike in September, as does Citi. CBA, ANZ forecast November hike

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Aug 27 (Reuters) - Gold's sharp rally, which has coincided with renewed pressure on the dollar, suggests the euro may have further room to rise.

Many investors have been betting against the euro, but it has continued to climb against the dollar, albeit more modestly than gold, raising the risk of a short squeeze if the rally gathers pace.

A short squeeze could lift EUR/USD speedily toward key topside levels before traders begin to establish significant bullish euro positions.

Unlike in January, when speculative euro longs rose to their second-highest level on record as EUR/USD reached a multi-year high of 1.2084, current positioning supports a bigger rise. Without the restraint of a large long position, EUR/USD could move well beyond 1.20. Although speculative long positions in gold have increased, they remain far below the levels seen when gold reached its record high in January, alongside EUR/USD trading at its best level of 2026. Gold, therefore, also appears to have room to extend its gains, giving traders holding numerous bets on a rising dollar pause for thought, as the U.S. currency usually falls when gold rallies.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has never closed above the 200-month moving average, currently at 1.1851, so a break above it would have very bullish implications for the pair. Should EUR/USD sustain a rise beyond 1.2016 — which is more probable following the substantial shift in positioning from long to short euros — a move toward 1.28 could follow.

eurusd


Gold and EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Antilles Gold rise as much as 37.5% to A$0.011, hitting their highest since June 4

• Shares mark their biggest intraday pct gain since June 22

• Gold miner signs pact with Luxembourg-based alternative investment group GEM Global Yield

• GEM will acquire 25% stake in Antilles Gold's Cayman Islands unit, which owns 50% interest in Cuban joint venture mining company Minera La Victoria

• Stock flat YTD

(Reporting by Subhalakshmi Dey in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY in stasis, 159.11-39 EBS, between 200/100-DMAs at 158.40/159.99

• Finds support on early swoon at 159.10/11 100/200-HMAs, 159.08-18 Ichi cloud

• Option expiries also supportive? Between 158.40-159.00 total $1.6 bln

• EUR/JPY heavy, 185.52-63 EBS but above 184.91-185.26 daily Ichi cloud

• 100-DMA 185.15 in cloud, at base of 185.50-74 hourly cloud, 100-HMA 185.44

• E710 mln inn option expiries today at 185.00 strike, likely supportive too

• GBP/JPY off and into 215.36-216.94 daily Ichimoku cloud, Asia 216.21-60

• Testing support around still ascending 200-HMA at 216.37

• CHF/JPY heavy too, 197.49-96, pivoting around its 197.70 ascending 200-HMA

• NZD/JPY in bounce after fall to 94.51 yesterday, Asia 94.52 to 94.87

• Back to 100-HMA at 94.86, towards hourly cloud, just a line at 94.94

• AUD/JPY continuing grind higher, 114.08-49, closer to 114.66 peak July 27

• Hawkish shift in RBA expectations seen raising carry interest

• Hawkish BOJ DepGov Himino-speak affirm expectations of BOJ September hike

• Related comments , , also

• On BOJ Himino , , flows
USD/JPY hourly:


GBP/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD remained heavy in Asia, 1.1645-59 EBS, holding above 1.1633 200-DMA

• Capped for now at 1.1659 hourly Ichimoku kijun, tenkan 1.1652 below

• Ascending 200-HMA below at 1.1642, underlining support for now

• Massive nearby option expiries today to again help contain spot action

• At 1.1600 E2.3 bln, between 1.1630-50 E2.6 bln, 1.1660-95 E2.5 bln

• On 1.17 above between 1.1700-65 total E2.4 bln also

• EUR/JPY heavy too, 185.52-63 EBS but above 184.91-185.26 daily Ichi cloud

• 100-DMA 185.15 in cloud, at base of 185.50-74 hourly cloud, 100-HMA 185.44

• E710 mln inn option expiries today at 185.00 strike, likely supportive too

• EUR/GBP tad better bid, indicated at 0.8575, still in 0.8535-92 daily cloud

• EUR/CHF also buoyant, 0.9383-89 EBS, rising with hourly tenkan at 0.9385

• Smattering of option expiries today between 0.9305-15, at 0.9400

• Most EUR flows today likely on last minute position adjusts pre-Jackson Hole

• Related comments , also ,
EUR/USD hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


EUR/CHF hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD +0.2% Thur as expectations of Sep RBA hike continue to rise

• AU Q2 capex -3.6% q/q (poll +0.5%), Jul household spending +1.1% m/m

• AUD topside break above 0.7190-00 resistance looks increasingly likely

• Broad USD index & UST yields grind higher on warmer than expected PCE update

• Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole Fri looms as late-week focal point

• Range Asia 0.7173-84 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7190-00 0.7277-82
DXY Daily 55-DMA


AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY little affected by good US GDP data, elevated US inflation

• Holding in recent range around 159.00, Asia so far today 159.22-30 EBS

• After plunge to 155.20 on August 3, retracement to 159.78 August 18

• Since then, range with base of 158.03 on August 20

• Japanese exporters helping to cap upside, importer demand at Tokyo fixes

• Daily Ichimoku cloud still ascending, today up between 160.63-162.51

• 100-DMA ahead at 159.99, 200-DMA below at 153.40, current parameters?

• Spot to top of 159.08-24 hourly Ichi cloud from 159.44 high yesterday

• 100/200-HMAs in this cloud at 159.09/10, initial support

• Bounce seen from around the 100-HMA, ahead of cloud base yesterday

• Option expiries today include 158.85-90 $798 mln, less at 159.50, 160.00

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials narrower again, 2s to 249, 10s to 175 bps

• Related comments , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On US economy , one yen view
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)