• NY opened near 0.6965 after 0.6996-0.6963 traded overnight, choppy trade early

• Dip toward 21-DMA met buyers as USD buying abated & yields

sank

• Equities turned up & gold, silver, copper bounced off their lows

• AUD/USD neared 0.6990 then dipped a bit, sat near 0.6980 late, was down only -0.09%

• A daily bull hammer formed & consolidation phase persists which are bull signals

• Rising monthly RSI, hold above 21- & 200-DMAs reinforce bullish tech signs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research notes that the risk of a sudden unwind of JPY short positions looks less likely than in the July 2024 intervention eposide.

"USD/JPY has grinded up to fresh 40-year highs and tactical short JPY positioning stands near the stretched levels reached prior to the July 2024 intervention and subsequent carry unwind in early August. This, combined with the rising volatility around energy, policy, and Al that has so far had less of an impact on FX, has raised some concerns about a sharp drop in USD/JPY yet to come. We think the vulnerability in terms of positioning is similar and should keep investors wary, especially with higher likelihood of repatriation flows. But the risk of a sudden unwind looks a bit lower than it was back then," GS notes.

"Overall, we think the nearer-term pressures will continue to be JPY-negative. But a faster and more disorderly depreciation would likely further raise the risk of intervention and of possibly the most credible form that could also shift the longer-term trajectory," GS adds.

AUD/USD's recent rally has paused as the pair consolidates gains made since the June monthly low—a pattern that is technically bullish. However, far larger gains could materialize if the Federal Reserve fails to adopt the hawkish stance that markets

have recently priced in. Inflation-linked markets suggest the Fed may not need to be as hawkish as investors currently expect. U.S. 2-year and 5-year inflation breakevens have resumed declining from their late April/early May peaks, striking fresh trend lows, while 2-year and 5-year inflation-linked swaps have sunk, erasing nearly all the gains accumulated in July. If the Fed surprises investors by downplaying inflation concerns and signaling that price pressures are less worrisome, U.S. interest rates and the dollar could fall sharply.

Such dollar weakness could be amplified by positioning dynamics: CFTC data shows the net-long U.S. dollar position

is at its largest level in 11½ years, leaving considerable room for unwinding. At the same time, net-short Australian dollar positions are at their largest since early December, setting up potential short-covering.

The combination of these position adjustments alongside falling U.S. interest rates could push AUD/USD higher, allowing the pair to complete its current consolidation phase. If this scenario unfolds, AUD/USD could then challenge key resistance in the 0.7150 to 0.7200 region, marking a significant technical and directional shift for the currency pair.
usbei


usinfli


usdcftc


audcftc


audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research maintains a long JPY exposure vs CHF and CAD.

"Several BoJ sources articles last week suggested officials are open to a faster hiking pace and alert to upside inflation risks. Indeed, our economists' inflation expectations indicator rose sharply in 2Q '26, supporting the case for an earlier rate hike  Fresh highs in USD/JPY may have prompted this "jawboning" but ultimately the impact was limited. This is partly because there was no mention of the government's view on monetary policy, which so far has signaled caution on hikes," BofA notes.

"Still, we are closer to, if not beyond, pain thresholds in JPY & JGB levels that may elicit a pivot from the government. The BoJ's communication at this week's meeting may provide clues but also the June meeting minutes (published on 5 Aug) that will update views from government representatives. We maintain long JPY exposure based on the improvement in balance of payments vs. 2025, focusing on non-USD crosses (CHF & CAD), where carry is less punitive," BofA adds.

Cable's early NorAm pop looks fleeting, with the pound climbing to a session high at 1.3306 before running into resistance and settling near 1.3300 in early NorAm trading.

Despite the mini-rally, the GBP/USD outlook remains tipped to the downside.

Today's move most likely reflected position curating ahead of the upcoming Fed and BoE rate announcements. While U.S. and UK front-end futures point to steady rates at both meetings, pricing shows a slightly more hawkish Fed bias into year-end 2026— a Fed 25bp hike seen in September versus a BoE move in November — handing the dollar a modest timing advantage.

Both central banks continue paying homage to data dependence, reluctant to hike aggressively while awaiting the inflation readings from the recent yaw in energy prices and any second-round effects.

This week's events aside, sterling is likely to stay offered given the dour UK inflation and growth dynamic. The recent UK regime change has also renewed long-standing fiscal concerns, with markets awaiting concrete action from PM Andy Burnham to revive the economy without straining the budget.

Technically, today's rise should be taken witAh a grain of salt. Support looks firm, for now, at 1.3276, matching the July 2 low, but momentum favors bears as the series of lows since July 16 shows no sign of reversing. A close below 1.3276 would open the way toward the June 24 low at 1.3140. On the topside, bulls need a rise above the daily cloud spanning 1.3324-1.3411 to stall the bearish tenor.
Sterling Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Nomura Research likes to buy JPY crosses after a potential MoF intervention.

"At this juncture, there are no strong signals suggesting these fundamentals will change in the near-term, so we think establishing a long cross-JPY trade is reasonable. However, with USD/JPY approaching 164-165, we think intervention risk is becoming further elevated, making it unattractive for immediately entering this short JPY trade. Thus, our preferred strategy is to initiate long cross-JPY after the MOF’s intervention, if any, occurs," Nomura adds.

"We believe shorting the JPY after any dips is a sensible strategy. All in all, we like having long EUR/JPY with a conviction level of 2/5, waiting for a better entry level," Nomura adds.

JP Morgan Research previews the July FOMC decision on Wednesday.

"We expect the FOMC will leave rates on hold at the end of this week's meeting. However, we think it will be a contested decision as some on the Committee are losing patience with above-target inflation, and we look for at least two hawkish dissents (Hammack and Logan).

There are no dots or SEP set to be released this week, and it will be interesting to see if the statement evolves, as it has done for much of this century, or whether it is effectively written afresh each meeting. If the former, then we wouldn't foresee many meaningful changes, as there have only been modest changes in the narratives on employment and inflation since the last meeting," JPM notes.

"We think there is a chance the Committee will use the statement to indicate it understands that action may be needed to back up its resolve. We have modest expectations for learning much from the post-meeting press conference," JPM adds.

• AUD/USD hit 0.6996 overnight, sellers then emerged, the pair fell below the 10-DMA

• The pair turned lower, 0.6963traded, NY opened near that low, pair was down -0.34%

• Broad-based USD buying weighed on the pair as did drops in gold, silver, copper

• USD/CNH's rally above 6.7725 also contributed to AUD/USD's price drop

• AUD/USD held above the 21-DMA & in its consolidation range which comforts bulls

• Falling daily RSI, move below the 10-DMA are concerns for bulls

• Australia Q2 CPI is a data risk during Asia trading hours on Wednesday
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

July 28 (Reuters) - USD/JPY remains on an upward trajectory and could be on the verge of an important break above 164.00 in coming sessions. Traders have been on intervention watch for weeks due to the yen's unabated slide, which pushed it to fresh 40-year lows against the dollar at 163.99 last week. USD/JPY left a large lower shadow on Monday's candlestick line, highlighting a rejection of the downside and increasing the likelihood of an eventual break above the new 163.99 multi-decade high. The 14-day momentum reading remains positive, reinforcing the underlying bullish market structure of USD/JPY.

There are likely good offers ahead of 164.00, some of which are for option barrier defence. If large stops clustered above 164.00 are triggered, that could lead to a bigger extension higher towards 165.00 option barriers.

However, a failure to break above 164.00 could end up putting downward pressure on this market.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Number of bets on euro falling recently tripled

• Week to July 24 euro shorts grew to $5.9bln from $1.8bln

• Natgas down 12% last 2 days, oil sliding 17% in 3 days

• The eurozone and euro will benefit from cheaper energy

• Base may form around influential 100-WMA at 1.1310

• Yuan strength, euro resilience may redefine what's safe

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD holds below 0.70 following its Asian session fall to 0.6963

• Drop to 0.6963 influenced by Asian stock losses (AUD is risk-sensitive)

• Kospi closed down 10.8%; Nikkei closed down 3.95%

• 0.6963 approximates to last Thursday's low. 0.6960 is 21DMA

• RBA Governor Bullock unsure if more rate hikes needed to tame inflation

• Australian Q2 CPI data due at 0130 GMT, before Fed rate decision

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has seen a 163.67-85 range, so far on Tuesday, according to EBS data

• Spot bullish while above 163.16 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 160.49-163.99 July (EBS) rise

• But it continues to trade below last week's new 163.99 multi-decade high

• There are likely good offers ahead of 164.00, some probably option barrier defence

• If large stops above 164.00 are triggered, that would unmask massive barriers at 165.00

• Japan's Katayama touts 'smooth' government relations with BOJ

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD sinks to 1.1362 EBS on Tuesday, session high 1.1395

• The 2026 low at 1.1325 traded on June 24

• Target for minor correction of 1.0125-1.2084 rise is 1.1366

• Big moves tend to follow breaks of 100-WMA currently 1.1310

• Drop toward 1.1100 likely should EUR/USD fall below 1.13

• Lower oil and growing short position limit chance of deeper drop

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 17.5 pip range thus far Tuesday; 1.32865-1.3304

• 1.32865 is 2.4 pips above Monday's base - the lowest level since July 2

• July 2 low was 1.32756 (July 1 low was 1.3220)

• Dollar supported by risk of Fed rate hike as early as Wednesday

• There are 1.3280-85 option expiries for the 10am ET NY cut

• BoE is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged on Thursday

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD heavy in Asia, 1.1367-77 EBS after fall from 1.1418 yesterday

• Holding in lower 1.1325-1.1482 range since June 24

• In area of 1.1371 descending hourly Ichimoku tenkan, cloud 1.1390-99 above

• Option expiries today include 1.1220-1.1300 E1 bln, 1.1325-90 E2.3 bln

• Also between 1.1400-75 total E2.6 bln, all to help contain spot action

• EUR/JPY off too from 186.67 high yesterday, Asia 186.16-27 EBS

• Holding in 186.18-37 hourly Ichimoku cloud, 100-HMA 186.09 below

• EUR/CHF buoyant, 0.9312-16 EBS, best since 0.9322 on January 16

• Holding well above 0.9291-97 hourly Ichimoku cloud, 0.9291 100-HMA

• EUR/GBP also buoyant, 0.8555-57 in Asia, bouncing still from 0.8455 July 15

• Hourly Ichimoku tenkan 0.8551, kijun 0.8545, cloud 0.8537-42 supports

• Markets seen mostly on hold pending FOMC, other central bank meets this week

• Related comments , , ,

• Bullish EUR view , , , also

• On central banks this week , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


EUR/CHF hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Laopu Gold drop 17.8% to HK$325.8, their lowest level since January 2025

• Stock set for biggest one-day pct decline since April 2025; top pct loser on the Hang Seng Index , which is up 0.3%

• Chinese jewellery maker and distributor expects H1 Non-IFRS adjusted net profit to jump 83%-85% y/y to 4.31 bln yuan-4.36 bln yuan ($637.08 mln-$644.47 mln), with revenue up 60%-66% to 19.8 bln yuan-20.45 bln yuan on improvement in high-value customer consumption and gold ornaments consumption

• Morningstar says improvement in profitability beats expectations but revenue lags forecast due to subdued buying amid falling gold prices in second quarter

• With 16.5 bln yuan-17.5 bln yuan first-quarter revenue, Laopu's second-quarter revenue is estimated to decline over 20% y/y - Morningstar

• Jefferies says Laopu's 1H26 profit estimate, while positive YoY, represents a significant miss against market projections as 2Q26 results are especially soft, impacted by macro gold price trends and intermediary inventory issues

• "We expect a negative market reaction to the news" - Jefferies

• YTD, stock down 46.8%
($1 = 6.7652 Chinese yuan)

(Reporting by Donny Kwok)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Tue, trading subdued despite some volatility across markets

• RBA Governor Bullock speech on monetary policy 0305 GMT closely watched

• Korean equities hit hard (KOSPI -8.3%), Oil prices sharply lower wtd

• Trump talking up Iran peace prospects in wake of pause in hostilities

• FOMC meeting outcome due Wed, no FFR change expected, dialogue critical

• AU Q2 CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.7% q/q, +4.1% y/y

• AUD needs to break above 0.7020-25 resistance to maintain positive momentum

• Range Asia 0.6982-94 support 0.6866 0.6834, resistance 0.7027 0.70885
AUD weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY to remain relatively bid on 163 into central bank announcements?

• Range so far in Asia 163.73-78 EBS, follows 163.33-80 range yesterday

• Breaking out of top of tapering hourly Ichimoku cloud between 163.49-74

• Hourly tenkan 163.70, kijun 163.56, ascending 100-HMA 163.50

• Some option expiries today - 162.90-163.00 $527 mln, 163.80-164.00 $652 mln

• Downside looks limited on Japanese importer, other demand

• Foreign investor Nikkei dip-buys, currency hedges likely too

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials off recent highs but still on wide side

• In 2s, differential @278 bps, in 10s @185 bps

• Market likely on hold for now, summer holidays, lull to limit action again

• Some lessening of Middle East hostilities but market remains nervous

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , ,

• Also on Fed ,

• US markets , , ,

• On US economy , , on US-Iran
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD -0.6% from Mon 0.5810 high as pair's week-long downturn resumes

• Futures pricing implies 90.6% chance of Sep RBNZ hike, but NZD struggling

• Oil prices sharply lower as Trump continues to pump Iran peace attempts

• Attention turns to latest U.S. tariffs in wake of the U.S.-Iran war pause

• FOMC meeting outcome also due Wed, no FFR change expected, dialogue crucial

• Range NZ 0.57725-845, support 0.5627 5580, resistance 0.5873 0.5990-95
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD flat wtd despite sharp oil price drop as U.S. & Iran pause attacks

• Brent crude -9.3%, WTI -8.3% as Trump talks up Iran diplomacy attempts

• RBA Governor Bullock speech on monetary policy in Sydney Tue

• AU Q2 CPI due Wed, Reuters poll consensus +0.7% q/q, +4.1% y/y

• FOMC meeting outcome also due Wed, no change to FFR target expected

• AUD's Jul upswing intact but failure to extend beyond 0.7020-25 concerning

• Overnight range 0.69855-0.70045 support 0.6866 0.6834, resistance 0.7027
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Danske Research previews this week's July FOMC meeting.

"We expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in the July meeting, in line with consensus. Markets price in 20-25% probability for a hike. Without new projections or forward guidance from Warsh, the focus will be on the vote split. We think the most likely outcome is 2-4 votes in favour of a hike," Danske notes.

"Last week, we recommended a tactical short EUR/USD spot position ahead of the July rate decision(s). We see an asymmetric outcome space around the meeting, where a unanimous hold would not materially affect hike expectations in later meetings, but a surprise hike or a close-call split decision could drive a hawkish repricing of USD real rates and support broad USD FX," Danske adds.

The euro held firm against a mostly higher dollar on Monday, buoyed by a favorable shift in yield spreads as Treasury yields and oil prices retreated while European equity indexes gained. U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is holding "good talks" with Iran and suggested a deal remains possible, adding that he has "plenty of time" to address the issue. Trump also called on the Fed to lower interest rates, saying the U.S. should have the lowest interest rate in the world. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with Trump on Tuesday.

A five-year auction showed soft demand with indirect bidders, a proxy for overseas demand, below the average of the six prior auctions.

The dollar index rose for a third day in modest turnover, with option risk reversals the most bullish since June.

The offshore yuan touched a five-week high against the dollar as yields and tech shares came under pressure. EUR/USD rose slightly though reversed most of its gains on broad dollar buying and stable U.S. yields, with bearish monthly signals suggesting rallies may be capped.

Sizeable euro options expire this week, including more than EUR20 billion concentrated in the 1.1350-1.1400 area and a further EUR13 billion at strikes between 1.1450 and 1.1500. EUR/CHF rose for a sixth day after the Swiss National Bank declined to comment on a media report that it expects to keep interest rates at zero through end-2027. Sterling slipped below 1.33 as a tech-led risk selloff and elevated UK yields offset support from lower oil prices, leaving GBP/USD vulnerable to further downside. AUD/USD retreated from above 0.7000 on firmer U.S. yields and broad dollar demand, but its hold above key moving averages keeps the broader outlook constructive as metals and CNH firm. USD/JPY was supported by haven dollar demand despite lower yields and oil prices, though fading momentum suggests pre-Fed/BOJ gains toward 164.00 could prove difficult.

Treasury yields were down 1 to 4 basis points with the 2s-10s curve falling about 2 basis points to +32.2bp.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.17% as tech and energy shares retreated.

WTI oil slid over 7%, extending its slide after Trump's comments on Iran.

Gold rose 0.56% while copper gained 0.50%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.01%, USD/JPY -0.07%, GBP/USD -0.25%, AUD/USD +0.03%, DXY +0.06%, EUR/JPY -0.04%, GBP/JPY -0.27%, AUD/JPY +0.07%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7000 after 0.7011 traded overnight, the pair slid in NY

• USD buying & firmer US yields helped to weigh down the pair

• Lower equities, USD/CNH bounce off low, erosion of some gold, silver gains added weight

• AUD/USD filled the gap from Friday's close, hit 0.6986, traded up only +0.03% late

• The pair is still consolidating recent gains & monthly RSI is rising; are bullish signals

• Pair's hold above the 10-, 21- & 200-DMAs reinforce the bullish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research previews this week's July FOMC meeting.

"OIS now reflect 45bp of Fed hikes in 2026, with September fully priced for 25bp. But if oil prices continue to rise, the view that peak Fed hawkishness is behind us will be tested, leaving the DXY vulnerable to a retest of the year-to-date high near 101.80. The last FOMC meeting showed a still-hawkish Fed. Half the committee projected a 2026 hike, with some pencilling in two," ANZ notes.

"Our base case for the upcoming meeting is for a hawkish hold. We have a positive USD bias around the FOMC meeting, and in the event there is a surprise rate hike, this will likely see the DXY breach 102, with upside risk," ANZ adds.