• EUR/GBP lifted by month-end buying in June then sinks towards a cloud twist

• Daily Ichimoku cloud twists today at 0.8917-54. Low 0.8947

• After today cloud thickens and rises. Potential for growing support

• 55-DMA and 100-DMA 0.8927 and 0.8880 provide additional layers of support

• Those hedging expected GBP direction might pick bases ahead these MAs

• Cloud peak rises to 0.8995 by month-end when buying is certain

• 21-DMA @ 0.9020. 38.2% retrace drop from end-June peak is 0.9035

• Rangebound EUR/USD adds to cause to eye a EUR/GBP rebound nL8N2EH0Y8

• 
  

• 
  

FX traders continue to flee the dollar for the yen as coronavirus worries take their toll and the technical picture darkens.
In times of uncertainty, with risk aversion on the rise, funds usually flow into the safe-haven yen.

The yen rose on Friday after a surge in new coronavirus infections in the United States further undermined the case for a quick turnaround in the economy nL4N2EH1G1.
EBS flow data shows there has been an acceleration of USD/JPY sales since Tuesday.

The USD/JPY technical outlook is becoming more bearish.
The recent bull trap above the 107.97 Fibonacci level, a 50% retracement of the 109.85 to 106.08 June (EBS) drop, keeps the overall bias on the downside.
A bull trap is set when a market breaks above a technical level but subsequently reverses.

Despite Thursday's recovery, the "death cross" on the daily USD index chart this week is a bad sign for the dollar in general nL1N2EF2P0.
Related nL1N2EG0EJ

For more click on FXBUZ

• Cable elicited support just shy of 1.2570 after extending south from 1.2668

• 1.2570 = 23.6% Fibo of 1.2252 (June 29 low) to 1.2668 (3-week high Thursday)

• Global equity equity losses are helping weigh on the risk-sensitive pound

• Nikkei closed down 1.06%. S&P e-mini is currently down 0.8%

• On Thursday, Barnier said significant differences persist in EU-UK talks

• See: nL8N2EG4LB. 1.2530 and 1.2500 are GBP/USD support points under 1.2570

• EUR/USD is not expected to move much ahead EU summit July 17-18

• In the interim traders have been eyeing ranges roughly centred 1.1150-1.1450

• Yesterday pair opened bullishly after setting a 20 day best at 1.1371

• Traders reaction was swift reducing existing longs; cementing range view

• Break from expected range unlikely. Specs very likely to buy the dip

• 21-DMA 1.1257. 1.1246 is 61.8% rise from Jun's low. 76.4% is 1.1216

• Base expected range near 1.1122; min correction target rise from 2020 low

• 
  

• 
  

• Bull run stopped in its tracks just ahead of the 200DMA, 1.2699

• Long upper shadow to Thurs candle and weak Frid open bearish

• 14-day positive momentum fades and RSI turns over

• Weekly action still with bulls but failure to cls above 55DMA a concern

• 55DMA is at 1.2609: last week's high 1.2530

• Tempting to short the market but stronger signals needed

  
  

• AUD/USD opened 0.25% lower at 0.6963 and came under pressure early

• AUD/JPY selling out of Tokyo send AUD/USD down to 0.6935

• Support at the 10-day MA (0.6935) held and it bounced back to 0.6951

• Equities remained pressured with AXJ index down 0.65% and E-minis off 0.25%

• AUD/USD eased back to 0.6940 into the afternoon session

• AUD/USD vulnerable as investor risk appetite wavers as COVID-19 surges nL4N2EH0CH

• Support at 10-day MA at 0.6935 and the 21-day MA at 0.6905

• Resistance and sellers around 0.7000 should cap while risk assets pressured

• For more click on FXBUZ

The correlation between the S&P 500 and the AUD/USD remains strong and with investor confidence fading, they both are starting to look vulnerable.

Risk assets have shown resilience due to hopes the global economy will continue to rebound despite the worrying surge in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and other parts of the world.
The strong U.S. job numbers in May and June helped fuel economic optimism, but enthusiasm is fading as the coronavirus count increases nL1N2EG13NnL1N2EG2PN.

Increasing demand for safe-haven U.S. Treasuries and gold along with dire warnings from the Federal Reserve portends faltering investor confidence.
This will likely result in a correction lower in the S&P 500 and a perceived top in place in the AUD/USD around the 0.7000 level.
A daily close below the 21-day moving average in the AUD/USD at 0.6907 would confirm a top is in place and target a move towards support at 0.6800.

For more click on FXBUZ

• Flat after closing off 0.4%, leaving a fresh range top at 1.1371

• We need a recovery fund, but with reforms, Dutch PM says nS8N2CH06H

• EU continue to work slowly towards a coronavirus hit, EU budget deal

• Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

• 1.1333 upper 21 day Bollinger band broken, but held on close as risk soured

• 21 day Bollinger bands are a good indicator of an over stretched market

• 1.1181 lower 21 day Bolli and 1.1157, 38.2% April-June rise, range base

• 1.1257 21 DMA and 1.1300-10 667M strikes are initial support-resistance

• For more click on FXBUZ

• Flat and closed little changed, after a topside failure and potential top

• Scant progress in Brexit talks - continue in Brussels next week nL8N2EG4LB

• UK retail warns shoppers face higher prices if no EU trade deal nL8N2EG4BT

• Techs; momentum studies climb, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

• Soft close leaves a shooting star reversal signal on the daily candles

• Close below Thur's 1.2600 low would leave 1.2668 top in place for next week

• 1.2667-99 key resistance, upper 21 day Bolli, 76.4% June fall & 200 DMA

• 1.2667 upper 21 day Bollinger band capped Thursday in London and NY

• 1.2570 5 DMA first support, then 1.2486-98 10 & 21 DMAs the pivotal level

For more click on FXBUZ

• EUR/USD opens 0.40% lower after break of triple-top at 1.1345/55 fizzled

• Pair still correlating with equities, which fell on coronavirus concerns nL1N2EG28WnL1N2EG13N

• EUR/USD support at 10-day MA at 1.1269 and 21-day MA at 1.1258

• A break below 1.1255 would suggest 1.1168/1.1422 range trading to continue

• Sellers are eyed ahead of 1.1350 while bids are tipped 1.1250/65

• For more click on FXBUZ

• AUD/USD opens 0.24% lower after failing to clearly break 0.7000

• Rising COVID-19 cases and US politics weighed on risk assets nL1N2EG28WnL1N2EG13NnL1N2EG0UO

• AUD/USD touched 0.7001 but sellers prevented decent follow-through higher

• Support is at the 10-day MA at 0.6937 and 21-day MA at 0.6908

• Resistance at 0.7000 and rising COVID-19 concerns make AUD/USD vulnerable

• Break of 0.6900 would suggest top in place and 0.6800/0.7000 range to ensue

• For more click on FXBUZ

NAB Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and adopts a neutral bias over the coming weeks.

"For now, we expect USD/JPY to continue to trade comfortably inside its key resistance (111), and support (105) levels, pivoting around the 107 mark as it has done since early April. That said, there is a risk geopolitical awakens JPY's safe-haven appeal and not just from US-China tensions. In yet another sign of a growing coalition of nations with shared values, lawmakers in Japan have drafted a resolution calling for the cancellation of a state visit by President Xi Jinping following China's clampdown on Hong Kong," NAB notes. 

"The start of US equity reporting season midway through July is also theme to watch, it has the potential to either propel USD/JPY towards 109 or below 106 depending on whether equity markets retain their current poise to skid on downward reassessment of global recovery prospects,"  NAB adds. 

Fixes typo in paragraph 12

The dollar and yen gained as relentlessly rising U.S. COVID cases nL1N2EG13N and election-year political uncertainty after a Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s financial records nL1N2EG0UO triggered safe-haven buying, knocking EUR/USD back and curtailing sterling's rally nL1N2EG1Q5.

Renewed worries about U.S.-China trade tensions nL1N2EG12A also encouraged the risk-off flows that led EUR/USD to reverse overnight gains to 1.1371 -- the closest it has come to reaching June’s 1.14225 EBS peak since then.

Disappointing German trade data nL8N2EG16Q hurt the euro by undermining the market narrative that Europe is a more attractive investment destination than the U.S. due to divergent pandemic paths.

Europe depends more heavily on exports, which the pandemic has damaged, than the U.S.

Still, the EUR/USD uptrend will remain intact unless it breaks 30-day moving average support at 1.1257 and the dollar index overcomes resistance at 97.09.

Though U.S. weekly jobless claims beat forecasts, they remained extremely elevated and may have been diminished by last week’s holiday.
The continuing claims fall to 18.062 million obscured the fact that a record 32.9 mln people were collecting unemployment checks nL1N2EF1U0.

Risk aversion stopped GBP/USD’s July rise at 1.2668 nL1N2EG0YU, which brushed up against the upper 21-day Bolli, 200-DMA and the underside of the uptrend line from March and May lows that it broke below in June.

USD/JPY slipped -- but less than yen crosses -- with losses limited to 107.10 on EBS due to the dollar’s recent uncharacteristic inclination to gain more from safe-haven demand than the Japanese currency.

This left USD/JPY in a slow retreat from July’s 108.16 fleeting peak.
Key on-close support is at 106.70, the weekly kijun and monthly tankan, that after falling out of the daily cloud and well below the daily tenkan and kijun lines this week nL1N2EG12A.

Falling Treasury yields, despite a 30-year auction, highlighted demand for the world’s top haven, taking the 10-year yields to their lowest since mid-May.

The Dow index fell away from its 200-day moving average, toward the rising 50-DMA that caught the late June and mid-May lows, perhaps providing a baseline for the recovery, risk-flows and the dollar as corporate earnings season approaches next week.

WTI and Brent retreated after failing to gain traction above where they gapped lower on March 9, put off by the U.S. COVID-19 acceleration and dim prospects for travel.

The next major U.S. economic release is retail sales on Thursday.

For more click on FXBUZ

• USD/JPY shunted lower in knee-jerk risk-on response to claims beats

• Also widespread haven yen buying on China, SCOTUS news nL1N2EG12A

• But dollar & Treasury demand as a haven limited losses to 107.10 on EBS

• Also seeing stocks recover some of their morning losses, dims yen bid

• Technical picture is bearish after loss of Ichimoku props this week

• Prices mean reverting toward slipping 21-DMA, 107.24 last

• Key on-close support is at 106.70, the weekly kijun & monthly tenkan

• Daily tenkan likely to flatten out soon, provide a backstop for shorts

• For more click on FXBUZ

• GBP/USD ekes out 0.06% gain at 1.2515; NorAm range 1.2668-1.2600

• Pair dips after SCOTUS rules for NY Grand Jury on Trump returns nL1N2EG0UO

• What you need to know about SCOTUS fight over Trump financials nL1N2EF1PU

• Sterling keeps Brexit blues at bay w/help from Sunak stimulus nL1N2EG0YU

• Bulls in control abv 30-DMA by 1.2521, eye resistance by 200-DMa (1.2698)

• Bears regain momentum on move below multiple DMA's 1.2521-1.2432

• EUR/GBP -0.34% to 0.8950; Thurs range 0.8997-47 on Sunak Fiscal moves

• EUR a casualty of renewed US-China trade uncertainty

MUFG Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and flags a scope for further gains towards 1.1495, with a break above a likely trigger for a broad USD sell-off.

"The improving outlook for growth outside of the US has helped to support risk assets and weighed on the US dollar more broadly. After failing to break back below the 1.1200-level in recent weeks, EUR/USD has rebounded and reached its highest level overnight since 11th June," MUFG notes. 

"The pair could now test the top of its current trading range between 1.1200 and 1.1400. A break above the high from 10th June at 1.1422 and then 9 th March high at 1.1495 would open the door for a more significant US dollar sell off," MUFG adds. 

USD/JPY struck new lows for July as risk markets fell on fears of deteriorating U.S.-China relations nL1N2EG03X and after the Supreme Court ruled that a New York prosecutor can obtain President Donald Trump's financial records nW1N2B401X, raising the risk of a 2019-style yen surge.

The risk-off response in 2019 was accompanied by falling 10-year Treasury-JGB yield spreads, which have already collapsed to 30-year lows due to the Fed's pandemic response.

USD/JPY has recently been more prone to weakness via risk-on flows hurting the haven dollar more then the haven yen, as the dip following U.S. claims beat illustrated nL1N2EG0PS.
A break of 106.70 weekly kijun and monthly tenkan props by the June 26 low EBS low at 106.80 is needed to retest May-June lows by 106.

A Reuters exclusive reporting a U.S. federal contract ban in the works for companies using Hauwei and other Chinese products or services came amid increasing friction due to China's new Hong Kong security law nL4N2EE2K8, while the Supreme court ruling on Trump's records adds to uncertainty ahead of November's elections.

For more click on FXBUZ

Sterling rose to a three-week high of 1.2668 in U.S. trade nL1N2EG0F5, maintaining support from UK finance minister Rishi Sunak's stimulus nL8N2EG1YD, allowing it to keep worries about stalled Brexit talks bay.

Sterling's recent rise from June 29's low at 1.2252 was predicated largely on a reduction of safe-haven dollar positions as U.S. coronavirus infections began to climb, weighing on U.S. economic recovery expectations.

GBP/USD bulls are treading cautiously ahead of resistance by 1.2680 -- the 76.4% Fibo of June's 1.2812-1.2252 range -- and the 200-day moving average at 1.2698.

With the U.S. and Europe expected to add to virus-relief measures, sterling's Sunak-stimulus boost could be short lived.

Also, if Brexit negotiations continue to meander, boosting no-deal Brexit expectations, GBP/USD bulls would probably book recent profits, putting support at 1.2522, the 30-DMA, and a cluster of daily moving averages from 1.2488 to 1.2433 in sharper focus.

For more click on FXBUZ

Credit Agricole CIB Research adopts a sell-on-rallies bias on GBP in the near-term.

"At present, the GBP is benefiting from the recovery in risk sentiment, which in turn is fuelled by hopes for a Covid-19 vaccine and better-than-expected economic data. These more than offset the continuing increase in the global number of coronavirus cases and seem to dampen concerns about a second wave of infections. On the domestic front, the GBP is supported by hopes for an aggressive fiscal stimulus to help foster the post-Covid recovery," CACIB notes. 

"All that said, the GBP remains a sell-on-rallies currency in our view. Indeed, we doubt that the latest rebound in risk would translate into a sustained rally.  This could leave the GBP vulnerable to renewed correction lower vs the USD and the EUR," CACIB adds. 

Credit Suisse discusses GBP/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for fresh sellers near the 1.2688/96 zone.

"GBPUSD has extended its defence of key retracement support at 1.2278 – 38.2% of the entire rally from the March low – and above price and “neckline” resistance at 1.2524/49 has seen the flagged in-range base complete.

With MACD momentum also turning higher again we look for this to clear the way for further towards the important 200-day average and mid-June high at 1.2688/96. Whilst we would expect fresh sellers to show here, should strength directly extend this can expose the downtrend from late last year, currently seen at 1.2752, with the “measured base objective” seen at 1.2808, just ahead of the key June high and 78.6% retracement of the 2020 fall at 1.2813/17," CS notes. 

"Support moves to 1.2550/49 initially, then 1.2530/20, which we look to now try and hold to keep the immediate risk higher. Below can see a deeper setback to 1.2493, with 1.2438 needing to hold to see the base maintained," CS adds. 

• EUR/USD jumped 1.1263-1.1371 this week

• Rally took pair over some important levels nL1N2EG09J

• Rather than trigger fresh demand sellers emerged. Pair down to 1.1317

• Pair bounced off very s/t tech level. 200-SMA on 10 min chart is 1.1316

• Traders are broadly long EUR/USD. Waiting for news about EU recovery fund

• July 17-18 EU summit. Big differences remain nB5N2B400F

• Seems some traders have seized the chance to take a profit

• 
  

• Cable met headwind just shy of 1.2668 after vaulting 1.2652 (early Ldn high)

• 1.2668 is a technical resistance level (upper 21-day Bolli) nL1N2EG057

• More offers expected near 1.2682 (June 16 high) and 1.27 (1.2698 = 200DMA)

• 1.2682 approximates to 76.4% Fibo of 1.2812 (June 10 high) to 1.2252

• Offers by 50% and 61.8% levels put temporary lid on recent GBP/USD gains

• UK set to borrow GBP 350 billion and more is likely, IFS says nL8N2EG25M

• AUD/USD scales four-week peak of 0.7001 after extending north from 0.6969

• 0.6969 was pullback low from 0.6995 Asian session high nL1N2EG05R

• Record rise in new U.S. COVID-19 cases is helping weigh on the USD

• See: nL1N2EG0AB. AUD is benefiting from higher copper prices nL4N2EG18O

• Australia to release most from COVID-19 high-rise lockdown despite surge

• See: nL4N2EG0BW. Australia suspends HK extradition treaty nL4N2EG0TV