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By Paul Spirgel  —  May 07 - 03:55 PM
  • USD net short rose in Apr 28-May 4 period nL1N2MU28Y, highest since March

  • EUR specs +3,862 contracts long 84,829; EUR specs buy -0.64% dip in period

  • USD/JPY +0.53% in period, yen specs +7,017 contracts now short 41,492

  • GBP specs sell 9,370 contracts long reduced to 19,848; GBP -0.17% in period

  • CAD specs +10,225 contracts long 25,947, as USD/CAD slides to new 3-yr low

  • AUD (+2,886) flips back to net positive, NZD (+1,609) as commods rise

  • MXN flips to net short; BTC short falls 145 contracts to -1,764, BTC -0.73% in period


IMM Net Spec Position Table: Click here

IMM Spec Position Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  May 07 - 02:38 PM
  • Incredible NFP miss (most since 1998) triggers a plunge to 108.34 on EBS

  • Lows briefly pierced the up TL from January lows, today at 108.41

  • TL was pierced in April, but couldn't be closed below, averting breakdown

  • Today's low is also by the 61.8% Fibo of April-May rebound at 108.325

  • A close below the TL and the Fibo would point to April low retest

  • Prices off lows as Treasury yields out the curve recouped payrolls plunge

  • Jobs data taken with a grain of salt, hints labor demand beating supply

  • Recovery faces Mon's prior intraweek range low, 10-DMA & tenkan by 108.90

  • 8-day low, 4th lower high and deep dive into the cloud are bearish signs

  • Options starting to lean bearish and toward next week's huge 108 expiry

  • Large net spec long USD/JPY position remains an overhang

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 07 - 01:39 PM
  • GBP/USD firm into weeks close, +0.68% at 1.3988; Fri range 1.40-1.3890

  • USD broadly lower after significant NFP data misses EMnL1N2MT2XD

  • Huge US payrolls miss leaves sterling bulls contemplating 1.40 nL1N2MU13P

  • GBP shrugs off tight Scottish election nL8N2MU4PW, awaits further results

  • Above the daily cloud top at 1.3903 bulls in control, res at Feb 26's 1.4021

  • A close above 1.4021 puts 1.4105, 76.4% Fib of 1.424-1.367 in sharp focus

  • Bears need a dip below recent trend low 1.3803 to stall bullish tones

  • EUR/GBP +0.14% to 0.8695, Fri's range 0.87-0.8669; moves USD based after NFP

  • EUR recovery picking up speed closing gap on vaccine rollout

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 07 - 01:30 PM

ANZ Research discusses the current conditions in FX market and notes that the USD Index (DXY) is currently dominating the movements in G10 FX.

"With lack of other fundamental catalysts driving markets at the moment, G10 FX is becoming increasingly about moves in the USD. Our aggregate correlation analysis shows that we are in a very ‘dollar-centric’ market at the moment, with the DXY sitting at the top of the list of important drivers for almost all the G10 pairs,"ANZ notes. 

"This seems to align with the behaviour we’ve seen in currency markets over recent weeks with the impetus from both equities and yields waning, consigning most pairs to a relatively narrow trading range," ANZ adds. 


ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 07 - 09:52 AM

Sterling rallied to a one-week high at 1.3972, further away from daily cloud top support by 1.3903, after U.S. non-farm payrolls EM undershot even the lowest forecasts, but bulls' hesitance left in doubt their ability to take 1.40 quickly.

With U.S. payrolls increasing by just 266,000 -- below the Reuters consensus forecast of 978,000 and range of 656,000 to 2.1 millionnL1N2MU107 -- cable pullbacks should be limited as the dollar weakens broadly, but big-figure and option resistance make 1.40 difficult to crack as long as UK data forestall BoE tapering.

Above 1.40 resistance comes at 1.4003, the upper 30-day Bolli and 1.4009 sterling's April 20 high, and other peaks on the way to Feb.
26's 1.4021 high.

Comments from BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent nS8N2L3025 on the need for clear evidence of a sustainable return of inflation echo Fed caution nN9N2JM005.

Thursday's reduction of weekly gilt purchases merely put the BoE back on course to meet its GBP875bn target, lending sterling a hand but falling short of the decisive tapering and higher rates guidance needed for GBP/USD to eclipse its 2021 high at 1.4240.

For more click on FXBUZ

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 07 - 10:45 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/CHF outlook and maintains a core bullish bias through year-end.

"Data-wise, it will be quiet next week with no meaningful data scheduled to be released. As such, this implies it will be about external factors such as global risk sentiment to drive the CHF. At the same time, speculative positioning has remained fairly balanced. Hence, rising selling interest may be needed to trigger more sustained currency downside from here. By mid-year, we see little scope for such prospects to materialise," CACIB notes. 

"Hence, we hold on to our mid-year 1.10 EUR/CHF forecast. In the longer-run, however, we continue to favour gradual downside with our year-end forecast standing at 1.1200," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 07 - 09:46 AM
  • Cable hits 1.3920 after retreating from 1.3972 (one-week peak at 1237GMT)

  • Retreat influenced by some profit-taking on short USD positions

  • 1.3972 was notched as USD tumbled on April's big NFP miss nL1N2MU0Z5

  • More: nL1N2MT2XD. 1.3892 was low shortly before the NFP data release

  • Pro-independence SNP win early seats in Scottish elections nL8N2MU4PW

  • Bank of England does not see COVID bankruptcy wave - Haldane nL8N2MU4HC

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 07 - 09:30 AM

Bank of America Global Research tracks how option investors have traded so far in 2021.

"G4: near-term bullish EUR, bearish JPY and CHF

From May to July, option investors have significantly more amount of unexpired calls than puts in EURUSD, their conviction in near-term strength for EUR (Exhibit 16). In contrast, option investors are positioned for more USDJPY and USDCHF calls than puts this month," BofA notes.

"G10 "high-beta" pairs: bullish AUD and NZD, moderately bearish CAD

Near-term open interest remain constructive for AUD and NZD (Exhibit 17), as shown by the amount of unexpired calls versus puts for AUD and NZD against USD. On the other hand, unexpired contracts are moderately bearish CAD," BofA adds. 


BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  May 07 - 08:57 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US and Canada jobs reports.

"The US labor market's performance was surprisingly weak in April given other signs of the economic reopening. The 266K jobs gained were miles below the consensus expectation for an acceleration in hiring to 1mn and that was compounded by a -78K revision to the prior two months. The softness was relatively broad based, with goods sectors seeing losses on the month, while leisure and hospitality was the only services sector to see a material gain in jobs, with government being the next best performer. The unemployment rate rose by a tick to 6.1% as the labor force participation rate climbed and the household survey also showed a slowdown in hiring. We'll stick to our view that there will be much stronger job gains ahead, but today's data will leave the Fed's dovish tone intact," CIBC notes. 

"The Canadian labour market was crushed again under the weight of another rise in COVID cases. The economy shed 207K jobs in April as the third wave forced a new round of harsh restrictions. That was a more pronounced loss than the consensus had anticipated and took the unemployment rate all the way back up to 8.1%, from 7.5% in March...The good news is that the curve is bending in some regions of the country and vaccinations are picking up pace, both of which should help the labour market begin to recover in June," CIBC adds.

CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 07 - 06:36 AM
  • Cable has traded a 30 pip range since the London open, 1.3897-1.3927

  • GBP supported by vote win for PM Johnson's Tories in Hartlepool nL8N2MU1H5

  • 1.3942 (Thursday's high) and 1.3958 are resistance levels beyond 1.3927

  • U.S. April employment report due 1230GMT, NFP f/c 978k nL1N2MT2DB

  • Pound awaits news of hawk Haldane's successor at BoE nL1N2MU0GI

  • BoE's Haldane and Broadbent are both due to speak at 1115GMT

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 07 - 06:02 AM
  • AUD/USD has traded a 20 pip range since the European open, 0.7761-0.7781

  • AUD supported by copper and iron ore price gains nL1N2MU070nL1N2MU0A3

  • Offers are tipped ahead of 0.78 (0.7792 was Asia top, high since April 29)

  • There is a large 0.7800 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut nL1N2MU096

  • U.S. April jobs report due at 1230GMT: NFP f/c 978k, jobless rate f/c 5.8%

  • See: nL1N2MT2DB. RBA seen leaving yield target at April 2024 nL4N2MU1WP

AUDUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 07 - 04:44 AM
  • Despite a setback, the overall scope is for eventual gains above 110.00

  • USD/JPY recently failed to register a daily close above the 109.64 Fibo

  • 109.64 Fibo is a 61.8% of the 110.97 to 107.48 (March to April) EBS drop

  • Bull trap usually gets set when a mkt breaks above a tech level but reverses

  • Thickening and rising cloud support, 107.15-109.05, should limit downside

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL1N2MT0FY

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 131.55-89 range on Friday according to EBS prices

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 07 - 03:55 AM

FX traders should be mindful that Australia's open and export-heavy economy is vulnerable to trade tensions, meaning AUD/USD could be harmed in May which typically is a month that sees this currency pair struggle.

China "indefinitely" suspended on Thursday all activity under a China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue, its state economic planner said, the latest setback for strained relations between the two countries nL1N2MT048.

Historically, AUD/USD tends to fall in May.
A seasonality study of AUD/USD's performance for each May since 2000 shows it has dropped in 14 of the past 21 years, or 67% of the time.
AUD/USD seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it becomes more useful when combined the news of the trade tensions with China and subtle medium-term technical signs.

AUD/USD developed long upper shadows on the last two weekly candlesticks, signs of a possible rejection of the upside.
A sustained AUD/USD drop through the May 0.7675 low, would weaken the market structure further and increase the likelihood that it finishes May in negative territory.

For more click on FXBUZ

AUD/USD May Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 07 - 02:52 AM
  • Direction clouded as market indecision takes hold of sterling

  • Weekly action provides hope for bulls: negating prev bear weeks

  • Our 1.3840 long play now cost free but progress very slow

  • Loss of 14 day bull momentum a concern, flips to negative

  • Daily RSI is flat lining in neutral territory

  • Price continues to consolidate around the daily cloud top, 1.3903

  • Thursday range extremes provide key levels, 1.3859-1.3942

    For more click on FXBUZ

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

GBP/USD weekly candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 07 - 02:31 AM
  • Cable pivots 1.3900 as UK PM Johnson's Tories win Hartlepool by-election

  • See: nL8N2MU1H5. Hartlepool had been Labour-held since 1974

  • There is a large 1.3900 option expiry for the 10am ET NY cut nL1N2MU096

  • 1.3900 also approximates to mid-point of Thursday's 1.3859-1.3942 range

  • See: nL1N2MT0VT. U.S. April employment report due 1230GMT: NFP f/c 978k

  • Scottish election results in pipeline: most expected Saturday nL4N2MR2UH

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  May 07 - 02:08 AM
  • FX options expire at 10-am NY/3-pm London - Friday May 7

  • EUR/USD: 1.2000 (537M), 1.2025-35 (1.8BLN), 1.2040-50 (1.4BLN)

  • 1.2100 (1.4BLN), 1.2130-35 (618M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9250 (210M). NZD/USD: 0.7175-80 (296M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3800 (471M), 1.3900 (861M), 1.3920-25 (565M), 1.4000 (342M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8650-60 (845M). AUD/NZD: 1.0800 (351M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7730-35 (442M), 0.7745-50 (491M), 0.7800 (1.2BLN)

  • USD/CAD: 1.2195-1.2205 (560M)

  • USD/JPY: 109.00-10 (1.2BLN), 110.00 (407M)

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 06 - 11:35 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.50% higher at 0.7785 after USD fell and commodities surged

  • Range in Asia so far is 0.7773/92 and is around 0.7780 into the afternoon

  • There was no reaction to RBA SOMP which upgraded forecasts as expected nRUA7GEHAI

  • China trade surplus was more than expected as imports and exports surged nAZN0158PF

  • AUD/USD likely to remain underpinned as LME copper hit all-time high in Asia nL4N2MU0GR

  • AUD/USD support at the 10-day MA at 0.7763 and break eases upward pressure

  • Resistance @ the 61.8 of 0.8007/0.7532 @ 0.7825 with sellers ahead of 0.7800

  • AUD/USD likely to consolidate ahead of key US payrolls later today

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 06 - 04:30 PM

ANZ Research discusses NZD outlook and sees a scope for NZD strength in the near-term. ANZ targets AUD/NZD at 1.05 by mid-year. 

"In the short term, the risk is that this apparent optimism will manifests in a higher NZD as markets respond to what we expect to be some strong data releases in the US that are likely to fuel risk appetite. Strategically, broad USD performance and an acceleration in global growth are expected to be the primary drivers for the NZD/USD," ANZ notes. 

"Overall, the kiwi’s higher beta should see the NZD crosses benefit from themes of economic reopening and developed market vaccine rollouts, which we expect to outweigh uncertainty associated with emerging market growth," ANZ adds. 

ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 06 - 11:28 PM

  • +0.1% at the top of a tight 1.3890-1.3906 range with consistent interest

  • UK jobs market hits full throttle as lockdown eases: KPMG/REC nL8N2MT53M

  • Jobs rebound fuelled by fast vaccine rollout, but still a long way to go

  • Charts; momentum studies conflict, 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages climb

  • Cable trades in the middle of the resilient three week 1.3800-1.4020 range

  • Resistance above 1.4000 caps - range top in March/April - 61.8% 2021 fall

  • 1.3799 61.8% April bounce held on last Friday and Monday - now key support

  • Election results are the next event risk and will filter through in London

For more click on FXBUZ

gbp 2 may 7 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 06 - 09:41 PM
  • RBA Quarterly SOMP just released upgraded forecasts as expected nRUA7GEHAI

  • AUD/USD unchanged on the day around 0.7780/85, as changes were well flagged

  • Bottom line for market is RBA doesn't see rate hike until 2024 at earliest

  • AUD/USD support at 10-day MA at 0.7763 and break would ease upward pressure

  • Stiff resistance is at 0.7815/25 with sellers head of 0.7800

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 06 - 08:14 PM

  • -0.1% - closed -0.1%, as the USD fell, but buoyant stocks/risk supported

  • Japan March real wages up for 2nd month amid spreading COVID-19 nL1N2MT0YH

  • Charts, rising daily cloud top at 109.04 has broken - trades at 108.99

  • Tenkan & Kijun lines contract - potential for a bearish cross

  • Overall setup suggests a deeper correction is viable on a soft close

  • 109.63, 61.8% of the March-April fall, tested Monday, is major resistance

  • 108.89 rising Tenkan line, then this week's 108.90 low are the key supports

    For more click on FXBUZ

jpy may 7 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 06 - 06:42 PM
  • EUR/USD opens 0.50% higher as rise in risk assets sparked USD selling nL1N2MT1O5

  • Wall Street closed higher and some key metals soared to major levels nL1N2MT2TI

  • EUR/USD rally stalling around the 10-day MA at 1.2065

  • A break above 1.2070 opens the way for a test of the April 29 1.2150 high

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.2026 and break eases upward pressure

  • Price action validates support at the 38.2 of 1.1704/1.2150 move at 1.1979

  • EUR/USD likely to consolidated ahead of key US payroll report later today

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 06 - 05:53 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.5% higher after completing a bullish outside day

  • Broadly weaker USD and surging commodities underpinning AUD/USD nL1N2MT1O5

  • AUD/USD closed above the 10-day MA (0.7763) and that is now support

  • Bullish technical backdrop suggest AUD/USD set to test 0.7815/25

  • The April 29 high is at 0.7818 and the 61.8 of 0.8007/0.7532 is at 0.7825

  • RBA SOMP today will upgrade forecasts for growth, employment and inflation

  • The tweaks are expected and won't suggest any change in RBA bias near-term

  • AUD/USD may consolidate ahead of the key US payroll report later today

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 06 - 03:00 PM

MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and sees the pair in tight range with a downside tilt through 105 level by year-end.

"With the global economy and global yields set to move higher relative to Japan, on a trade-weighted basis at least, the yen should weaken further. But a factor that is likely to limit yen depreciation over the medium term remains the relative attractiveness of real yields in Japan. The inability of the BoJ to implement further notable monetary easing leaves inflation expectations more subdued in Japan," MUFG notes. 

"USD/JPY is likely to move in a tighter range than other G10 currencies reflecting offsetting forces on current account and capital account flows and assuming a gradual rather than a sharp move higher in global yields," MUFG adds.

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
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